Transcripts For FBC The 20240704 : vimarsana.com

FBC The July 4, 2024

The dime. Liz for a second, the dow was positive. Right now its just straddling that flatline. Charles, i know you know this, we are tminus one hour from disneys earnings, and right now shares of the entertainment con glom9 rate are, again with, kind of straddling that flatline but slightly lower by 14 cents. Shareholders are still processing the big headline last night that penn entertainment, thats the Online Sports betting company, has struck a 2 billion cash and stock deal to partner with disneys espn. This partnership is going to give penn, whose stock right now is doing much better than disney ifs, up nearly 10 in the session, give them exclusive rights to espn bet for ten years. With disneys earnings on deck, this could possibly be one of the most scrutinized earnings calls of the entire season. Considering the disappointing Second Quarter results, investors are very anxious to hear better news from ceo bob iger, but itll take a lot to make them forget that since iger returned to the helm back on november 20th of last year, disney shares have dropped more than 4 while the s p 500 has soared 13 plus. Whos going to come out the winner in this pennespn deal . Coming up, jordan bender of jmp is here on whether the deal will turn out to be brilliant or a bust and for what side. Thats really important. To the markets on this wednesday, weve got some churn as we kick off the final hour of trade. The s p and the nasdaq are on a pace for a second straight day of losses. Right now were watching the dow because it had been in the green. It is still down now though at the moment by about 14 points. The s p 500 in the red by 7 points, the nasdaq down 81. The russell 2000 losing 10 points. Stocks though, you can argue these are slight changes, right . Not big, dramatic swings as investors await what could be a very major market catalyst. Julys read on consumer inflation out tomorrow morning. July cpi, as its called, expected to have climbed twotenths of a percent month over month, 3. yearoveryear 3. 3 yearoveryear. The core cpi is forecast to climb 4. 7 yearoveryear, just onetenth of a percent cooler than junes 4. 8 number. A surprise either way, you could argue, could gyrate the markets, but there is no denying inflation has come well off the 40year high that was hit back in june of 2022. Finish to the far right side of the screen, you see it there. So as inflation comes down, does that mean the bull market in stocks is here to stay . Lets get to the great scotts, scott bauer from the floor of the cbo, and here on the set, scott redler. Bauer, what is the sentiment down at the cbo right now . Liz, about a half hour ago i went into the pit, talked to about a dozen traders and brokers. Overall sentiment is different from what they want to happen. They would love to see the market continue lower because thats going to bring more volatility, probably better trade. But the overall sentiment is they think we are very rangebound, probably grind back higher going into the september fed meeting. So a lot of chop until then. That doesnt mean that we wont see, as you said, a move on cpi or ppi on friday. A move on the next jobs number, okay . And its actually getting busy here right now. But the overall sentiment is that this bullish market, even though weve sol off a little bit sold off a little bit, will continue at least over the next several months. Liz whatever i am hearing must mean that people are betting the Options Market on, what, volatility . Absolutely. And weve seen volatility come off those the lows that were, you know, the hoes weve seen in two the lows weve seen in two years. Volatility is still extremely low whether youre looking in the spx, at the vix, its still really low are. Now, you do see heightened volatility a little bit going into tomorrow and friday because of the economic prints, but if you look to the next week, it dives right back down to where weve been sitting. So overall, theres still a lot of come play seven is city out there. Liz okay. But i will tell you that these guys out here, at least the ones that that i spoke with, they think were going to have this chop grind higher, but theyre very concerned about the back end of the year, november and december. Liz okay. That is way too far out, although for you longterm investors, come on, right in you make good bets on companies that are quality going through hard times. That brings me to scott redler. Scott, youve made some pretty smart bets lately. The last time you were here, i randomly asked you your side window trade, you said im going long on boeing, and its done rather well since july. Let me broaden the discussion out for a moment. What do you think about the market, the s p, its going, where its been . Well, i agree with your other guest, scott bauer. He said something very smart, that traders are prepare for choppy markets since we put the peak in about two weeks ago. The s p is about 3 off the highs after a 19 plus percent move this year. The nasdaq was up 40 , its down 5 or 6, so traders dont think its enough, Market Participants would rather have a little bit more digestion. Tomorrows going to be very interesting. You know, what the street wants is they want a light cpi, okay . But what the rumblings are is that it might be a little hotter than expected, that thats why we pull in. If we do get e a light cpi, we probably get e a rally, but to me, i dont think its going to be sustained. I dont think were going to be close to the highs of the year in the next few weeks or months. I i think you can get better prices come september, october. Liz a light cpi would mean that the Federal Reserve might pull its foot off the pause even. They will not raise in september. If we maybe get that light, thats what im hearing you say. Thats the thinking. I kind of think that theyre going to go another quarter. They need to continue to stay the course higher for longer and put inflation to bed which which its not yet. Its coming down, but at this point we might get a little bump before it comes down further into the fall. Liz let me ask both of you about whats going on in tech. Today i mean, you cant say its a massive selloff, but there is a techled selloff that has a lot of red on the screen but particularly in the semiconductor area. Scott bauer, one could argue if you look at the socks, it has done so ebb incredibly well. This is the incredibly well. This is the bass with debt of semi basket of semiconductor stocks. Is it profit taking or something deeper here . I think its a little mix, liz. You look at the microsofts and nvidias of the world, the real big guys here, theyre down 10 off of their recent runs. Thats not, you know, thats not that big of a drawdown. But then you look at some of the other ones, some of smaller, you know, nasdaq growth stocks. Take an upstart. An a. I. , lemonade, stocks like that, that honestly have just been decimated off of the big runs that that theyve had. So i think that what youre seeing is a lot of profit taking off of these stocks that have run really, really far. And even though were seeing some of the big guys down a little bit, that profit taking, that cash is going to work with in the better names, in the better names like even a microsoft if down 10 or nvidia. So i think thats what youre looking at there, but there certainly is concern that if we get a hot read tomorrow, thats not good for, obviously, these growth stocks, its not going to be good for semis. You could see a further draw candown. But as you said, at this point its not that much to write home about, it really isnt. Liz redler, im talking to you guys like were on a High School Volleyball team. Redler, bauer. [laughter] what bents are you taking in Technology Stocks that that perhaps are starting to look more attractive . Theyre starting to. If you remember microsoft, apple, netflix, all of them were at alltime highs or 2023 highs into the print were sol off. I want to write down 170ish in apple liz 178. 94 right now. So we still have to be patient. To put a swing trade to work, i think we go lower. Microsoft is off 10 , we still have another 5 to go. Liz okay. Amazon and google react well to earnings, they didnt rally as much into the print, so i think traders are starting to stay with them even though we could see more of a corrective phase in the next 24 weeks. Liz although amazon had such a great response postearnings. Month to date its up about 3. 7 , which is not that exciting, but year to date up 65 . Right. But its still about 30 off the alltime highs, so thats why they reacted well. Apple was at alltime highs, so it had to come off of with a 30 pe, google and amazon did not. They responded well. I think traders are trying to buy the pull in there because the size of their moves prior werent as big or robust. Liz the great scotts, thank you very much is, both of you. Now the dow is down 30 points. The red continues on the screen but in either direction no massive moves. Disney ceo bob iger netting a chunk of money for disney right before the Earnings Report which is out after the bell this afternoon. How big a chunk . A 2 billion cash and stock deal with Online Gaming and Casino Company penn entertainment to launch sportsbook e e spn bet. Up next, gaming analyst jordan bender on whether teaming up with espn will catapult penn or leave it on the wrong end of the bet. Closing bell 50 minutes away. Claman countdown is coming right back. Dont move. 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In a surprise deal, the Companies Announced a 2 billion partnership to create an espnbranded sportsbook called espn bet. Penns Sports Betting site will rebrand with the espn name this fall, and the entire holding of barstool goes back to the founder and president , dave portnoy. The entire stake that penn had bought. This after penn if completed its 551 million acquisition of the Entertainment Company on february 17th of this year. Disney ceo bob iger raising the stakes for espn ahead of the companys Third Quarter profit just minutes away. How much value is this kind of partnership really going to add to the Sports Network which is experiencing a subscriber decline . Jmp securities analyst jordan bender has a market perform on penn. Met me just start with this, jordan, who got the better end of the deal here . Well, you know, this is an industrychanging deal on, you know, for both sides of it. On the penn side of it, you know, they divested barstool. That wasnt a business that was working for them. Its a pretty well known fact that for some time that, you know, this wasnt a almost arrangement. On the call today the ceo even said barstool isnt a company that should be owned by a publiclytraded company. So you look at the reaction of the stock for penn today, it just kind of shows that the risk there was, you know, baked in liz youre talking about, lets just for those who havent covered the story the, youre talking about reputational risk. Obviously, barstool has a very young, male demo, and portnoy is still very involve in this successful company. But it got, it got penn into trouble in some cases or prevented it from getting the ability to launch in certain markets that do approve online gambling, right . Yeah, id say that is true. Is and, you know, with bar stool now leaving and for penn to say, you know, we have espn now, we have this more core demographic to the sportsbetting ecosystem, hundreds of millions of people to crosssell on to their online platform, it just feels like a little bit better of a fit for someone like penn. So as we look at the stock today, you know, its really that push of getting people in this huge Distribution Platform into the Online Gaming app. You know, thats one part of it, of getting people onto your app. The ore side of it is other side is how well you can retain them, the product you can provide for them. Last month penn actually integrated their inhouse tech staff. Thats what were looking for here, how well of an experience can penn provide these people crossselling from espn to their online app. We think thats the going to be the measure ofe the measure of success. Liz you know, penn gave back what it owned of barstool to dave portnoy for zero dollars, so dave gets a really good deal here. Do you think that disney commanded that pennty demanded that penn divest of barstool before it even considered linking up with espn . You know, its an interesting question. You know, im not sitting there at the negotiation table. I would imagine though that, you know, the writing was on the wall here. We knew that barstool probably wasnt the longterm solution here, that they probably decided to go their separate ways, you know, when disney entered the picture, im sure there was a little bit of that, that, you know, we just want a clean break. We want to create our own product. Heres what we have to offer, you know, in the long term disneys looking at the value they can credit. They can use the penn platform, and they can drive shareholder value for both penn and disney as well. Liz jordan, im a little perplexed on why you to think this is industrychanging. Im guessing you mean maybe for penn . But penn has a very small market share. When you compare it to draftkings and fanduel . You know, you look at the market shares of some of those companies, and youre looking at certainly something much, much bigger than what you would expect to see, and, you know, youve got penn at 2 with fanduel at 50 , draftkings 25 . Even caesars is bigger at 5. What is your expectation in terms of espn and its broad tv and digital reach and what it can do to to substantially increase penns share. Yeah, you know, thats a great point. And to this point, you know, media partnerships havent worked in this industry. Theres multiple examples across the online ecosystem in the last five or so years of, you know, companies coming together thinking the media asset is going to help drive customers into the sportsbook, and it really just hasnt worked yet. You can even look internationally, same kind of result. It just really hasnt worked. So, you know, when we talk about this industry changing, you know, you have the worldwide leader in sports in espn, you have a massive demographic of people who are willing to watch sports, bet on sports, and we havent really seen that type of person within this ecosystem partner up with an Online Sports betting operator. But they talked about on the called today, this is a showme story. To your point, we dont know if this is going to be 5 or if this is going to be 30 . So, you know, time will tell, but they did jay, the ceo, did come out on the call today, and he sounded very enthusiastic. It seems like they do have a good road map to launch this product. Liz well, he better sound enthusiastic, theres a lot of money here at stake. This is a very fickle user base. And im talking about people with who go online to bet. Theyre not particularly loyal to any one site. It almost feels like theyre always hunting for whos offering bonus cash, whos offering free dollars to get in and make a trade. So what is it that espn can possibly do beyond eyeballs, i guess, in advertising across many of their networks that will somehow make people tune out all the other apps and hold steady with penn . And maybe, maybe it is going to happen because draftkings is down 9 right now. Yeah. You know, i think a lot of the crosssell, you know, comes from espn, obviously, but i think a lot of its actually going to come from the penn side. And it goes back to who has the best technology and who has the best product. Liz true. Example i love giving is when you walk into a grocery store, you

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