And, you know, the students, well see whether they get jobs if they want them on wall street anymore. Shar charles or in law firms, yeah. Liz cant support a terror the u. S. Group. Bad indication there. All right, as we kick off the final hour of trade for the week, extreme urn certainty in the middle east and confusion in congress here at home have investors disinclined to head into the weekend long. Weve got the dow heading back town to session lows, lower by about 191 points. The s p down 37. The nasdaq falling 151 points. This even as a fox news confirms some good news, two american hostages a mother and a daughter taken by Hamas Terrorists two weeks ago not only have been released, but this is just hitting the wires. They have been received at the gazard border and are in safe and secure hands of the israelis and enroute to a military base in israel. Look at crude oil. If you really want to see where the reaction was, it was trading at nearly 90 a barrel. But then you see it slide around 11 22 a. M. Eastern time x hen the big dive, 12 44 p. M. Which is when the headline hit the tape saying that hamas had released those two hostages for, quote, humanitarian reasons. Technicians are watching the s p very closely through all of this. The key level to look at a here, 4200. Were at 4240 right now. This is pretty much though a broader index selloff. With just one of the eleven s p sectors in the green, tech is actually the biggest drag. Look at the xlk here, the xlk is down more than 1 . Apple represents 22 of the spider tech etf. Microsoft about 211 of total 21 of total net assets followed by nvidia. All three of those, you can see, is down. Invade yas down about 1 nvidias down to 416. 11. As the Israeli Military buildup at the gaza border reaches Critical Mass and irans proxy terrorist Group Hezbollah continues to launch mortar shells into israel from north of israels border with lebanon, Israeli Military is responding with artillery fire. And in a heavy dose of irony this afternoon, irans military chief warning the u. S. Against sending weapons to israel saying, quote, that would further complicate the situation in gaza. Last night President Biden did request congress approve 14 billion in aid to israel. 10 billion of which would be going to military assistance. Major problem here, congress is still frozen in place as jim jordan is no longer the republican speaker nominee. After the house gop vote him out for the fourth time. What happens next amid the d. C. Chaos . Coming up, the gop congressman whos so frustrated by republicans inability to name a speaker that he may be ready to jump in. Dan meuser of pennsylvania joins us live. Plus, he is helming new legislation to publicly refreeze the 6 billion the Biden Administration conditionally released to iran. All right. So overall were seeing this hesitant trade. It is property based, no doubt pushed this part by a new warning from the state department. Its u. S. Has issued a rare worldwide caution alert for all americans traveling everywhere overseas and u. S. Personnel at the u. S. Embassy in jerusalem are currently sheltering in place ahead of what is expected to be a massive Israeli Ground offensive into gaza. As the markets endure choppy trade, do missile and drone attacks on u. S. Bases in syria and iraq yesterday indicate that this war could be on the verge of spreading to other areas with u. S. Interests . We went to bring in live a highly decorated retired threestar army general, Keith Kellogg, who also served as National Security adviser to former Vice President mike pence. General, the hostage are release is wonderful news, certainly. But 201 people including 11 americans, these are civilians, innocents, are still being held by the terrorists. How are you viewing this release . Yeah, liz, well, thanks for having me. Look, its a good with sign that we get anybody back. I think its great. But itsal a play. Its a play by hamas to release a couple people. Theres still well over 100 kept in captivity. And i think they have to keep their eye on the ball. They, the israelis. Theyre going to have to do a military operation. Theyre going to have to go into gaza, defeat the hamas military organization and command and control structure theyve got there. You have to look at it in actually two playing fields. One of them is a humanitarian piece, the host aages, and the other is military. Youre going to have to keep them apart because most people probably have no idea, even hamas probably count know where every single hostage ask. Is. So its good news, but i wouldnt put too much into it. Its going to be a big fight, a tough fight, and because of that i think youre going to see not only civilian casualties, but i dont think youre going to see all of the hostages come out of this alive either. Liz well, that is the issue. Youve got to be realistic here. And well hope against all hope. So, if we see this release of two of the hostages sort of as an attempt to stave off the mass israeli offensive, reel has been very clear it will happen, what will they encounter, general . You talked about the tunnels there. There are hundreds of miles of that. Tunnel warfare, you could go back to that elite unit during the vietnam war, they called themselves the tunnel rats. Ive studied these guys. Unbelievable bravery here. Theyve had two weeks to booby trap these here in gaza. Yeah. This is probably if youre an infantryman, this is the toughest fight you ever face when you go into an urban environment. You fight on a billing level, up to 10 stories, you fight at a street level, and you fight subterranean, and you have to have really good intelligence. Its manpower intense which means its going to take a lot of troops. So youre going to have to really find out where to you want to go. You have to be very discreet about your attack pattern and where youre going to isolate the battlefield and where youre going to attack the hamas leadership at. It eats up infantry. It absorbs infantry, a lo of them. Now, the israelis have train for this. Theyve got an incredible urban Training Center in the south of israel, and ive been there. Its about 600 buildings, pretty good its a good place to train, but it doesnt ever prepare you for the real fight. Its going to be a hard, tough fight. Ill caution everybody once you go into this, you are going to see collateral damage. Youre going to see civilians killed, possibly a lot of Israeli Soldiers killed, and youre going to see a lot of hamas killed as well. Its going to be a tough fight, but theyve got to do it. Liz, theres a moral imperative here. What happened 14 days ago goes back to 1945 where we said never again. This actually happened. This was an attack into israel. They killed an enormous number of civilians, and theyre going to have to respond to this to make sure that they are seen in todays world which we said in 45 is never again. Listly it will liz it will be an urban warfare hellscape. And as we wait for that green light if the israelis do eventually give it, lets talk about the u. S. Hostage rescue teams. General, i mean, again, you are looking at one of the most dangerous extractions ever, correct . Oh, absolutely. Its really, its really hard to do. And when we were in the Trump Administration, you know, we had several of those that went down. You know, Seal Team Six did it or the delta force did it. And and its really hard. You need exquisite planning and information to be able to do it because its really a very targeted attack. And you have to know where youre going. Those forces that that you see, chose special ops forces, theyre not designed for longterm conflict meaning an hour, ten hours, or twelve hours. Their idea is to strike and get out. And theyre the best in the world. I know people talk about other nations, but i tell you when you look at the American Special ops forces, again, Seal Team Six and the delta force, theyre the best in the world. Absolutely the best. Theyve got a command and control structure thats just as good. Liz the leader of saudi arabia and United Arab Emirates met in i idea today. We are expecting some in riyadh today. Lets with really clear here, general. Isnt it obvious that hamas launched this bloody slaughter two weeks ago because they start to look at a themselves as left out of the future of the middle east and the conversations that had been happening under the Trump Administration for, obviously, the Abraham Accords where israel had start tip lo mat you can relations with bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, morocco and now the saudis were getting close to this. Is that derailed now, or do you foresee that the saudis who arguably have the strongest voice in the region will say, you know what . Hamas is just horrible for all of us. I think youll get a delay for a while, but with i think the normalization of relations between saudi and israel, they were moving, i think it was going to happen. Look, in the Trump Administration we asked the palestinians to come with us op on this because it was an economic support primarily. They didnt. Are. Liz of course. We said,ing okay, were going to move on without you. And we moved to the saudis. And the e we think in a Second Administration we would have got it, and i think the israelis were working toward that normalization with saudi arabia and israel, and i think thats what generated this fight. Iran doesnt want to see this happen. Iran has their hands on hamas, and they have their hands in hezbollah, and they dont want the this to occur with saudi coming together with israel because that stabilizes the entire middle east. Once youve got those parties in place, youre going to have longterm peace. We saw that. It was an economicsbased program, and we think we had a good way ahead. I think israel was trying to work that as well as saudi arabia, and i think they were close to the it. Liz it is really possible that hamas saw that and said, oh, wait, the new modern map9 and the relations in the middle east definitely leave them out especially when they behave like this. General, thank you. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, liz. Liz so through all of this, folks, we are watching treasury yields whip around. Still a wall street guessing game as the fed chair refused to commit to any specific Interest Rates moves in the near future. Does that mean a pause at the november meeting . Well, sure. But what about december and january, and how do you trade that as the fed for the moment sits on its hands . Were going to ask the floor show, show you treasuries. The dow is down 221 points. Mortgage rates track the 10year yield which today got very close to 5 . Mortgage loan stocks, pretty vulnerable to Federal Reserve rate moves. Rocket more gant mortgage, lending tree the, most of them are down except for uwm. The claman countdown is coming back. Stay with us, weve got the news thats breaking every minute. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. This is american infrastructure. Megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. All running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. 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So you can see that as we have about 46 minutes left to trade, 45 minutes or so, the conflict in the middle east is affecting the markets and not just the stock market. Were looking at elevated bond yields, at least certainly earlier today the treasury, the 10year yield briefly crossed above 5 . Thats a level not reached since 2007. We are now down below that, as you see the right . To quality, 4. 9 . And then this is the 11week picture. 1week picture, a big rampup and then the pullback today just 24 hours after jay powell signaled that while rate hikes, many of them more of them, may be possible, were going to be very data dependent. Cleveland fed president hover relate that mester or saying today the fed is at or near the peak of its rate hike cycle. She also said inflation is cooling but is, quote, till too high. She ec echoes exactly what jay powell said yessed, inflation is still too high. Meanwhile, philly president Patrick Harker said now is the time to hold rates steady. Fed funds futures, well, the fed ratehiking cycle is partially to blame for the banking crisis back in. Martha . Today we see regional shares hitting their low level since that time. So youd have to go back months. So remember how tough it was in march when Silicon Valley bank went under because it had too many low yielding treasuries on its books that they were going to have to sell at a december count . Right now, regions down 12 , we can cycle through these, looking very unhealthy at the moment. But its one day, right . But big financials till look mixed on the still look mixed on the session. Morgan stanley up about threequarters of a percent but just off the 52week lows. It happened to be a stock that one of our floor show guests says youve got to really watch and wait. Joining me now, chris whalen back with us and Fitzgerald Group principal keith fitzgerald. Chris, were looking at the banks right now. Obviously, or they are very vulnerable to the treasury yield moves. What do you think of the 10year, the 2year, how the tbills are trading at the moment . Look, the treasury market is reflecting, you know, the big macro picture. I think the depositories, the mainstream, main street banks are getting oversold, and i think the larger dealer banks still dont reflect some of the changes that are coming at them both in terms of baas well and the secs move to require centralizedded trading of treasuries, centralized clearing. What this means for the hedge funds is that they have to own the treasuries they want to pledge. They cant borrow them. And thats going to be a big change. You know, all of the guys who have been doing the basis trade for the last decade are essentially going to be throttled back. Goldman, Morgan Stanley which are the biggest derivative shoips on wall street are going to have to reduce leverage. And thats really what both gary gensler and secretary yellen want. The group of 20 the came out with that announcement, and then we had the march blow help with three banks fail, so the industry couldnt push back. Liz and as we look at the price to earnings ratio of some of the bank, youve got goldman at about 4, jpmorgans around 7 or 8, then youve got Morgan Stanley which you feel at 13 is too high at the moment. Its too high because their business is going to change. Its a great firm. Its a threelegged stool compared to a twolegged stool at goldman. [laughter] liz is there such a thing as a twolegged stool . No, its not stable because they dont have that that regular Asset Management if business. They dont have the same quality of deposits that Morgan Stanley has. Thats whats wrong with goldman. But i think people realize dont understand that that a lot of structural change coming from washington in a lot of areas. Pay for deal flow, thats going to go away. Liz and that is going to affect their bottom line. Yes. Its going to affect earnings. Liz right now we tee sentiment affecting the markets. Dow is down about 189 points. S p is falling 37. Thats nearly 1 is president. 1 . Nasdaq down 148. Keith fitzgerald, it looks like investors on this friday are giving in to that temptation to sell when they get nervous. Is that the right thing to do . Boy, you know, it feels good in the short term, but, you know, history shows thats absolutely the the wrong move. If you can afford to stay in it and you can take a longer term perspective, that is very clearly what you want to do. But if youre a trader and youre into shortterm shenanigans, then, yeah, you want to sell today. Liz and what are some nobrainers that you see at the moment . When we loo