Transcripts For FBC Making 20240703 : vimarsana.com

Taylor it was my fault. Jackie well send it over to Charles Payne if on this charles im with brian on this one. Brian yes charles i dont know. Im a conspiracy theorist by heart. Good afternoon, everyone, im carl partnership or this is making money. The markets relatively flat right now but, lets face it, it has been a very good week for stocks because it was not a great week for Economic Data the. The ive got jim bianco, Hillary Kramer here to try to make sense of it but, more importantly, how to make money off of it. Ray dalio sees the american debt crisis causing up to a 40 chance of a civil war in this country. Is that possible . Tweet me cb 35eu7b, i would love to hear and share your thoughts. And the great debate, representing versus buying. Which one is the better renting versus buying. Lance lambert is here at 2 30. And every day we talk about the market changing, how it changes lives. Well, there are other ways of changing lives and a much earlier part in life. Thats what the boys and girls club of harlem does, a very special interview with a young man, those who are helping him to truly achieve his best life possible. All that and so much more on making money. Are. Charles all right, so it was a good week for the market. Lets face it, it wasnt a good week on Economic Data. And while corporate earnings have largely come in above with wall street consensus, you know, very few have really beaten on revenue. Youre look here at the list. So let me just really quickly, because this is going to boggle the mind, Nfib Small Business optimism, missed. Producer price index came in a hot hotter than expected. Advanced retail sales, a big disaster. Empire state, thats new york area manufacturing, a miss. Consumer price index, same as a year ago. National association of home builders, that was a big miss if on their sentiment. Philadelphia fed, that was a huge miss. Building permits and starts were down and Industrial Production missed the mark. So, you know, yet to a degree maybe earnings helped. Certainly, lets face it too, you know, the earnings situation is one now that theres a shift, right, from growth and being able to say, hey, you know, the earnings because of pricing power, and now the focus is on how well management can navigate dark clouds of inflation above. And nobody, nobodys talking about price power, folks. And yet Risk Appetite, hook at this, it is erupting. Everyone has a lot of Risk Appetite these days. Remember the fear and greed index . Well, its moving pretty quickly. Just a month ago it was nestled into fear. How much longer can bad news be cheered instead of triggering concern . Lets bring in Bianco Research president jim bianco. We know that the market was soft, the soft data can be, you know, seen as enough for the fed to become more aggressive on ate hikes, but there is also this old saying to be careful what you wish for, right . Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, really what the market, you know, the stock market has been looking at for the last several months has been a 5 yield in the bond market. The longterm prospects of the stock market is for 8 gains. So if you can get 5 in the bond market, youre getting most of the gains in the stock market without as much risk. And its seeing that as a big competition. So when you get this weak data, and hopefully the market thinks the feds going to cut rates, yields on longterm bonds are going to fall, that reduces the competition, and that gets everybody excited about stocks. So were solid isly into that old bad news is good news. And to your point, be careful about wishing for bad news and thinking its good news because eventually bad news becomes bad news this in that the Economic Data is bad and its bad for a reason, and then all of a sudden we dont like it that the Economic Datas bad. Charles to that point, i do find it interesting how desperately wall street is clamoring for rate cuts. There are two things, a and ive got the sheet in front of me the market normally goes down initially after that first rate cut. Check this out, folks, the highlighted column there. In recent years its really gone down a lot. This goes back to 1974. Overall, your average is 276 days from the first rate cut to when the market actually makes a bottom. And i do not think the fed has ever really cut rates when the market was at an alltime high. In fact, decline before and after these cuts average about a 25 move, and more recently its been more detrimental than that. I just wonder why are we clamoring so much for these rate cuts when, in fact, unless the only to thing i can think, jim, is wall street knows maybe at this point its just with feathers, you know, their portfolios because historically rate cuts initially dont help the market. Right. Historically, rate cuts typically become because the economy initially. It usually comes because the economy is struggling or theres some legitimate fears that theres a problem with the economy, and thats why the fed cuts rates. Now, they have can cut rate when weve been at an alltime high, they did it in 1995 and in 2019, and the stock market went ballistic right after both of those rate cuts because in that case what does an alltime high in the stock market tell you . There isnt a whole lot of things to worry about. And if the fed is going to say, okay, since theres nothing to worry about, let me throw cheap money onto the equation [laughter] thats why the stock market goes crazy. Thats why you get meme stocks coming back, bitcoin going crazy, thats why you get all this speculation thats been going on. And if thats why wall street wants rate cuts, because it doesnt think there a problem, and it just sees cheap money, and they want to enjoy the advantages of that. Charles its like every day is their birthday. I had jim grant on earlier this week, talked about a, of course, entering the bond market now, perhaps it has entered into a secular bear market. Were talking 35, 40 years of yields a higher from here, bonds lower. You wrote an article act this in ft last week an article about this. What are your thoughts about this . I tend to agree with him that that we are in a secular bear market and we are going to see over the next many years higher Interest Rates. Dont be worryed about that. What that means is youre going to get the competition there from stocks from higher yields. What that also means is were probably going to be in an era of stronger growth. What does that mean if youre a borrower . Whatever youre borrowing for should appreciate faster whether its a house or a business to be able to pay those higher Interest Rates. It does not mean, you know, its the end of economy or anything like that, its that weve transitioned away from that zero Interest Rate world that we were many. Were no longer in that world anymore. Charles all right. Hey, jim, thanks a lot, my friend if. Hope to see you again soon. Thank you. Charles all right. So my next guest has been very precise in his forecast. You know how some people come on and equivocate . Not my man. He has broken it down into quarters. He was looking for a peak in the First Quarter for the market, a decline or a bottom by memorial day. Im going to bring in Heritage Capital president paul looks like that low in april is probably the low at least for now for this market. ,. Yeah. Good to see you, my friend. Ill tell you what, you know, the peak so i looked for a peak in q1. It came right at the end, so it was a little later than expected but still within the framework of q1, and i thought wed have a bottom by memorial day. You and i kidded around about that when i was in studio last time, and i thought wed get new highs by labor day. Everythings been compressed. So the fact that stocks peaked later in the quarter and bottomed earlier in q2, its a really bullish sign. The market didnt need all the a time to bottom, it didnt need all the time to, labor day, to get back to highs. Were already there. So over the intermediate term, charles, thats a really, really good sign. Weve got thrust in the market. Theres a lot of positives. Weve got rotation thats positive, but we also have this, you know, kind of mini dot. Comish kind of craze this week. So late comers are going to get punished and probably sooner than later. Charles all right, so met me pick up on that because let me peck up on that because much is being made and you just said that the rally is broadening out, that weve got these breadth thrusts, but im looking at the number of s p 500 companies changing hands above their 50day moving average. Ive got to tell you, the percentage is a lot lower than it was in late march. So, you know, were at an alltime high, but the number of names above their 50day arent anywhere near where they were almost 30 days ago. How do you explain that . So quite easily. And if you wanted to poke if holes in my thesis, id tell you to ask me about new highs. Kind of sort of the same thing. New highs are slightly expanding, but theyre not at the levels they were last time. And thats okay. If when youre in a bull market, each and every rally doesnt have the exact same broadening coincidentally as the previous rally. So to your point and the point about new highs, just because it didnt happen at the previous peak and were making new high now, its a divergence, but its not something im terribly worried about a because theres so many other things that are overwhelming to have. The breadth thrusts, volume, this is all a intermediate term not short time charles let me jump on that real quick because we have got a minute to go, paul. In the last month, utilities up 15, staples up 7 , real estate up almost 8. Are those really the names that can lead this market higher over a long period of time . Absolutely not. And as we say, i think youre on the press disright now of different leadership precipice right now of different leadership beginning. We own staples, we sold a little bit earlier this week because theyve melted up so much. Same thing with real estate. I think a lot of that is because you had relief, frankly, in the bond market. But i would say this, right now youve got energy which was envogue, now its left for dead. I think theres your opportunity. People dont want to talk about the banks. I dont talk about them. We bought hem the haas, in the last month them in the last month. I think youre on this precipice of new leadership taking over and, frankly, im happy to come on can and do the mea culpa if utilities, if staples, if r are ei, ts reits continue to outpace semis and banks and discretionary and energiful im wrong, weve got a bigger problem. I think were going to have a quick down draft. You get a little pop in the vix, 12 billion shares trading on the nasdaq in one day this week. Theres a little froth there, my friend. Charles a little bit. By the way, i do want to let you know we had your stock picks up. Amd, the action on that has been absolutely remarkable. Full disclosure, my subscribers are in it. You hike bp and oih, both plays in oil. It look like it has bottomed out. Paul, have a great weekend. See you soon. Charles all right, man. So financial medias cheering this weeks cpi report, but with my next guest really not convinced. You know, or chris lowe, he goes through this data really unlike anyone if else. Its his job, but hes one of the best at doing it. Hes going to tell us what hes come to conclude next. I came in like a wrecking ball all i wanted was to break your walls but get closer. Daughter gasps what the . daughter alright. Dad side to side. When you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more. You can do this. Youre unstoppable. Wow. Are you kidding me . You can do this. At truist, we believe the same is true for banking. Its apparent. Not me. Yeah. Nice going lou nothing like a little confidence boost to help ease you back in to the dating scene. That includes having a smile you feel good about. Fortunately, aspen dental specializes in dentures and implants made just for you. And with flexible financing, you dont need to sacrifice quality work for a price that fits your budget. At 0 down plus 0 interest if paid in full in 18 months. Helping our patients put their best smile forward. Its one more way aspen dental is in your corner. There are many ways to do things. At old dominion freight line, we do them this way. This way has people who start early. People who care and inspire each other to do things the way they should be done. This way uses technology and goes the extra mile to deliver your promises ontime, every time. This way is why were the Number One National ltl carrier for quality. For us, this way is the right way which is why its the only way we go. Your shipping manager left to find themself. leaving you lost. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire Sara Federico at st. Jude, we dont care who cures cancer. We just need to advance the cure. Its a Bold Initiative to try and bump cure rates all around the world, but we should. It is our commitment. We need to do this. When i was your age, we never had anything like this. What . Wifi . Wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. The basement. So i can finally throw that party. And invite shannon barnes. Dream do come true. Xfinity gives you reliable wifi with walltowall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. Maybe well even get married one day. I wonder what i will be doing . Probably still living here with mom and dad. Fast reliable speeds right where you need them. Thats walltowall wifi with xfinity. Charles its been a few days my next guest, they say look at this where we were three years ago, although theres some things hike the base lien effect. Were talking baseline effects, were talking comparisons against a year ago. I want to bring in fhn chief economist chris lowe. There was a line in your report that caught my eye. It says that after that, further improvement requires this years increases be smaller than the tiny increases through the last year, through last years second half. It is entirely possible they will be, of course, but it is not likely. Yeah. What it come down to, all of these numbers are seasonal hi adjusted, right . Seasonally adjusted. So you shouldnt see patterns repeating from one with year to the next. If they do repeat, it means the process is broken, and thats possible. But looking back over the years, its really rare for something to break down to that degree. Charles right. And i think what it does is it underscores, charles, at the heart of the rate cut call everything has to go right. No room for error. Charles to that point, we showed a chart yesterday to the awed yerntion if the rest of the year was. 03 month over month, we would end the year at 4. Thats a long way from the feds target. Yeah. And another way to look at it, the wall street journal this morning, lowest inflation core since 2021, but look at headline inflation if. It reached this level in june of last year. Its been going sideways since then. Charles right. So, you know, the improvement is partly because with were spending more on gas, and is were not spending on other things as a result. Charles yeah. And so people watching this show, they dont live core, or right . They lev head lively headline. I know this has lost a little bit of catch che, two years ago cache, two years ago everyone hung their recession hat on the lei being down so to long, but does it Say Something about the health of the economy . It says a little bit. And i think part of what the lei is picking up is the same thing that some of the surveys are picking up. Gdp looks great. The employment numbers look great. People are miserable. Ask is one of the reasons for that and one of the reasons for that is very rapid growth in emigration which means rapid growth in the work force. Its not being picked up by Census Department which means its not getting into the data. But effectively what it means is that per capita each one of us, our income isnt growing as fast as the ago redate. Our spending power isnt growing as fast as the aggregate. People are miserable. So its things like Consumer Sentiment and the inverted yield curve that are pulling the l everything i down. Charles i want to put up a chart for the audience, and it shows when the fed began hiking rates and, well, it shows now we dont have the black line in there, but theres a corresponding line that goes straight up when the fed began hiking rates, and those other lines represent different measures of inflation. When the fed stopped hiking rates, it went sideways right. Charles still has the decline in the rate of inflation. I guess the question is, are rates sufficiently high enough . That is the ultimate question. And its one that people inside the fed are starting to ask. Neel kashkari especially at the minneapolis fed. It comes down to this, what is a neutral fed funds rate, one thats neither if tight nor easy . Charles right. They think they know what it is, but with hes suggesting if its higher than we think it is, then policys not as restriskt as we think it is. And the evidence of that, he says, is weve still got rapid gdp and rapid job growth. Thats not a restrictive economy. Charles jim bianco posted someone buying a steak for 1,000 at the fountain bleu the other day. [laughter] wasnt me, i promise. Charles real quick, im not an economist but at the very beginning of this, the rate cuts didnt match the emergency. I thought the fed should have been far more aggressive initially. I know all of this is hindsight. The only reason i bring it up is im still concerned, chris, that such a large portion of this economy, theyve run out of money, and the aggregates still okay because youve got a tiny portion that hasnt. And all of a sudden we wont just have a ground rule, we could see the economy sort of at least on paper, you know, not just on paper, in real life fall off a cliff. Yeah, look, this is what powell was getting at way back in 22 when he started hiking, when he said every time the feds let inflation get out of control, it usually ends in a recession. Were going to try not to break anything, but i cant make promises. Charles yeah. Well, now, as you said, they havent hiked since last july, inflations been going sideways the whole time. If they have to start hiking again, it could get tricky. Charles but he wont be arthur burns. Chris, thank you very much, appreciate it. So renting or buying, which one is the smart move right now . Weve got real estate expert if Charles Payne<\/a> if on this charles im with brian on this one. Brian yes charles i dont know. Im a conspiracy theorist by heart. Good afternoon, everyone, im carl partnership or this is making money. The markets relatively flat right now but, lets face it, it has been a very good week for stocks because it was not a great week for Economic Data<\/a> the. The ive got jim bianco, Hillary Kramer<\/a> here to try to make sense of it but, more importantly, how to make money off of it. Ray dalio sees the american debt crisis causing up to a 40 chance of a civil war in this country. Is that possible . Tweet me cb 35eu7b, i would love to hear and share your thoughts. And the great debate, representing versus buying. Which one is the better renting versus buying. Lance lambert is here at 2 30. And every day we talk about the market changing, how it changes lives. Well, there are other ways of changing lives and a much earlier part in life. Thats what the boys and girls club of harlem does, a very special interview with a young man, those who are helping him to truly achieve his best life possible. All that and so much more on making money. Are. Charles all right, so it was a good week for the market. Lets face it, it wasnt a good week on Economic Data<\/a>. And while corporate earnings have largely come in above with wall street consensus, you know, very few have really beaten on revenue. Youre look here at the list. So let me just really quickly, because this is going to boggle the mind, Nfib Small Business<\/a> optimism, missed. Producer price index came in a hot hotter than expected. Advanced retail sales, a big disaster. Empire state, thats new york area manufacturing, a miss. Consumer price index, same as a year ago. National association of home builders, that was a big miss if on their sentiment. Philadelphia fed, that was a huge miss. Building permits and starts were down and Industrial Production<\/a> missed the mark. So, you know, yet to a degree maybe earnings helped. Certainly, lets face it too, you know, the earnings situation is one now that theres a shift, right, from growth and being able to say, hey, you know, the earnings because of pricing power, and now the focus is on how well management can navigate dark clouds of inflation above. And nobody, nobodys talking about price power, folks. And yet Risk Appetite<\/a>, hook at this, it is erupting. Everyone has a lot of Risk Appetite<\/a> these days. Remember the fear and greed index . Well, its moving pretty quickly. Just a month ago it was nestled into fear. How much longer can bad news be cheered instead of triggering concern . Lets bring in Bianco Research<\/a> president jim bianco. We know that the market was soft, the soft data can be, you know, seen as enough for the fed to become more aggressive on ate hikes, but there is also this old saying to be careful what you wish for, right . Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, really what the market, you know, the stock market has been looking at for the last several months has been a 5 yield in the bond market. The longterm prospects of the stock market is for 8 gains. So if you can get 5 in the bond market, youre getting most of the gains in the stock market without as much risk. And its seeing that as a big competition. So when you get this weak data, and hopefully the market thinks the feds going to cut rates, yields on longterm bonds are going to fall, that reduces the competition, and that gets everybody excited about stocks. So were solid isly into that old bad news is good news. And to your point, be careful about wishing for bad news and thinking its good news because eventually bad news becomes bad news this in that the Economic Data<\/a> is bad and its bad for a reason, and then all of a sudden we dont like it that the Economic Data<\/a>s bad. Charles to that point, i do find it interesting how desperately wall street is clamoring for rate cuts. There are two things, a and ive got the sheet in front of me the market normally goes down initially after that first rate cut. Check this out, folks, the highlighted column there. In recent years its really gone down a lot. This goes back to 1974. Overall, your average is 276 days from the first rate cut to when the market actually makes a bottom. And i do not think the fed has ever really cut rates when the market was at an alltime high. In fact, decline before and after these cuts average about a 25 move, and more recently its been more detrimental than that. I just wonder why are we clamoring so much for these rate cuts when, in fact, unless the only to thing i can think, jim, is wall street knows maybe at this point its just with feathers, you know, their portfolios because historically rate cuts initially dont help the market. Right. Historically, rate cuts typically become because the economy initially. It usually comes because the economy is struggling or theres some legitimate fears that theres a problem with the economy, and thats why the fed cuts rates. Now, they have can cut rate when weve been at an alltime high, they did it in 1995 and in 2019, and the stock market went ballistic right after both of those rate cuts because in that case what does an alltime high in the stock market tell you . There isnt a whole lot of things to worry about. And if the fed is going to say, okay, since theres nothing to worry about, let me throw cheap money onto the equation [laughter] thats why the stock market goes crazy. Thats why you get meme stocks coming back, bitcoin going crazy, thats why you get all this speculation thats been going on. And if thats why wall street wants rate cuts, because it doesnt think there a problem, and it just sees cheap money, and they want to enjoy the advantages of that. Charles its like every day is their birthday. I had jim grant on earlier this week, talked about a, of course, entering the bond market now, perhaps it has entered into a secular bear market. Were talking 35, 40 years of yields a higher from here, bonds lower. You wrote an article act this in ft last week an article about this. What are your thoughts about this . I tend to agree with him that that we are in a secular bear market and we are going to see over the next many years higher Interest Rate<\/a>s. Dont be worryed about that. What that means is youre going to get the competition there from stocks from higher yields. What that also means is were probably going to be in an era of stronger growth. What does that mean if youre a borrower . Whatever youre borrowing for should appreciate faster whether its a house or a business to be able to pay those higher Interest Rate<\/a>s. It does not mean, you know, its the end of economy or anything like that, its that weve transitioned away from that zero Interest Rate<\/a> world that we were many. Were no longer in that world anymore. Charles all right. Hey, jim, thanks a lot, my friend if. Hope to see you again soon. Thank you. Charles all right. So my next guest has been very precise in his forecast. You know how some people come on and equivocate . Not my man. He has broken it down into quarters. He was looking for a peak in the First Quarter<\/a> for the market, a decline or a bottom by memorial day. Im going to bring in Heritage Capital<\/a> president paul looks like that low in april is probably the low at least for now for this market. ,. Yeah. Good to see you, my friend. Ill tell you what, you know, the peak so i looked for a peak in q1. It came right at the end, so it was a little later than expected but still within the framework of q1, and i thought wed have a bottom by memorial day. You and i kidded around about that when i was in studio last time, and i thought wed get new highs by labor day. Everythings been compressed. So the fact that stocks peaked later in the quarter and bottomed earlier in q2, its a really bullish sign. The market didnt need all the a time to bottom, it didnt need all the time to, labor day, to get back to highs. Were already there. So over the intermediate term, charles, thats a really, really good sign. Weve got thrust in the market. Theres a lot of positives. Weve got rotation thats positive, but we also have this, you know, kind of mini dot. Comish kind of craze this week. So late comers are going to get punished and probably sooner than later. Charles all right, so met me pick up on that because let me peck up on that because much is being made and you just said that the rally is broadening out, that weve got these breadth thrusts, but im looking at the number of s p 500 companies changing hands above their 50day moving average. Ive got to tell you, the percentage is a lot lower than it was in late march. So, you know, were at an alltime high, but the number of names above their 50day arent anywhere near where they were almost 30 days ago. How do you explain that . So quite easily. And if you wanted to poke if holes in my thesis, id tell you to ask me about new highs. Kind of sort of the same thing. New highs are slightly expanding, but theyre not at the levels they were last time. And thats okay. If when youre in a bull market, each and every rally doesnt have the exact same broadening coincidentally as the previous rally. So to your point and the point about new highs, just because it didnt happen at the previous peak and were making new high now, its a divergence, but its not something im terribly worried about a because theres so many other things that are overwhelming to have. The breadth thrusts, volume, this is all a intermediate term not short time charles let me jump on that real quick because we have got a minute to go, paul. In the last month, utilities up 15, staples up 7 , real estate up almost 8. Are those really the names that can lead this market higher over a long period of time . Absolutely not. And as we say, i think youre on the press disright now of different leadership precipice right now of different leadership beginning. We own staples, we sold a little bit earlier this week because theyve melted up so much. Same thing with real estate. I think a lot of that is because you had relief, frankly, in the bond market. But i would say this, right now youve got energy which was envogue, now its left for dead. I think theres your opportunity. People dont want to talk about the banks. I dont talk about them. We bought hem the haas, in the last month them in the last month. I think youre on this precipice of new leadership taking over and, frankly, im happy to come on can and do the mea culpa if utilities, if staples, if r are ei, ts reits continue to outpace semis and banks and discretionary and energiful im wrong, weve got a bigger problem. I think were going to have a quick down draft. You get a little pop in the vix, 12 billion shares trading on the nasdaq in one day this week. Theres a little froth there, my friend. Charles a little bit. By the way, i do want to let you know we had your stock picks up. Amd, the action on that has been absolutely remarkable. Full disclosure, my subscribers are in it. You hike bp and oih, both plays in oil. It look like it has bottomed out. Paul, have a great weekend. See you soon. Charles all right, man. So financial medias cheering this weeks cpi report, but with my next guest really not convinced. You know, or chris lowe, he goes through this data really unlike anyone if else. Its his job, but hes one of the best at doing it. Hes going to tell us what hes come to conclude next. I came in like a wrecking ball all i wanted was to break your walls but get closer. Daughter gasps what the . daughter alright. Dad side to side. When you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more. You can do this. Youre unstoppable. Wow. Are you kidding me . You can do this. At truist, we believe the same is true for banking. Its apparent. Not me. Yeah. Nice going lou nothing like a little confidence boost to help ease you back in to the dating scene. That includes having a smile you feel good about. Fortunately, aspen dental specializes in dentures and implants made just for you. And with flexible financing, you dont need to sacrifice quality work for a price that fits your budget. At 0 down plus 0 interest if paid in full in 18 months. Helping our patients put their best smile forward. Its one more way aspen dental is in your corner. There are many ways to do things. At old dominion freight line, we do them this way. This way has people who start early. People who care and inspire each other to do things the way they should be done. This way uses technology and goes the extra mile to deliver your promises ontime, every time. This way is why were the Number One National<\/a> ltl carrier for quality. For us, this way is the right way which is why its the only way we go. Your shipping manager left to find themself. leaving you lost. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire Sara Federico<\/a> at st. Jude, we dont care who cures cancer. We just need to advance the cure. Its a Bold Initiative<\/a> to try and bump cure rates all around the world, but we should. It is our commitment. We need to do this. When i was your age, we never had anything like this. What . Wifi . Wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. The basement. So i can finally throw that party. And invite shannon barnes. Dream do come true. Xfinity gives you reliable wifi with walltowall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. Maybe well even get married one day. I wonder what i will be doing . Probably still living here with mom and dad. Fast reliable speeds right where you need them. Thats walltowall wifi with xfinity. Charles its been a few days my next guest, they say look at this where we were three years ago, although theres some things hike the base lien effect. Were talking baseline effects, were talking comparisons against a year ago. I want to bring in fhn chief economist chris lowe. There was a line in your report that caught my eye. It says that after that, further improvement requires this years increases be smaller than the tiny increases through the last year, through last years second half. It is entirely possible they will be, of course, but it is not likely. Yeah. What it come down to, all of these numbers are seasonal hi adjusted, right . Seasonally adjusted. So you shouldnt see patterns repeating from one with year to the next. If they do repeat, it means the process is broken, and thats possible. But looking back over the years, its really rare for something to break down to that degree. Charles right. And i think what it does is it underscores, charles, at the heart of the rate cut call everything has to go right. No room for error. Charles to that point, we showed a chart yesterday to the awed yerntion if the rest of the year was. 03 month over month, we would end the year at 4. Thats a long way from the feds target. Yeah. And another way to look at it, the wall street journal this morning, lowest inflation core since 2021, but look at headline inflation if. It reached this level in june of last year. Its been going sideways since then. Charles right. So, you know, the improvement is partly because with were spending more on gas, and is were not spending on other things as a result. Charles yeah. And so people watching this show, they dont live core, or right . They lev head lively headline. I know this has lost a little bit of catch che, two years ago cache, two years ago everyone hung their recession hat on the lei being down so to long, but does it Say Something<\/a> about the health of the economy . It says a little bit. And i think part of what the lei is picking up is the same thing that some of the surveys are picking up. Gdp looks great. The employment numbers look great. People are miserable. Ask is one of the reasons for that and one of the reasons for that is very rapid growth in emigration which means rapid growth in the work force. Its not being picked up by Census Department<\/a> which means its not getting into the data. But effectively what it means is that per capita each one of us, our income isnt growing as fast as the ago redate. Our spending power isnt growing as fast as the aggregate. People are miserable. So its things like Consumer Sentiment<\/a> and the inverted yield curve that are pulling the l everything i down. Charles i want to put up a chart for the audience, and it shows when the fed began hiking rates and, well, it shows now we dont have the black line in there, but theres a corresponding line that goes straight up when the fed began hiking rates, and those other lines represent different measures of inflation. When the fed stopped hiking rates, it went sideways right. Charles still has the decline in the rate of inflation. I guess the question is, are rates sufficiently high enough . That is the ultimate question. And its one that people inside the fed are starting to ask. Neel kashkari especially at the minneapolis fed. It comes down to this, what is a neutral fed funds rate, one thats neither if tight nor easy . Charles right. They think they know what it is, but with hes suggesting if its higher than we think it is, then policys not as restriskt as we think it is. And the evidence of that, he says, is weve still got rapid gdp and rapid job growth. Thats not a restrictive economy. Charles jim bianco posted someone buying a steak for 1,000 at the fountain bleu the other day. [laughter] wasnt me, i promise. Charles real quick, im not an economist but at the very beginning of this, the rate cuts didnt match the emergency. I thought the fed should have been far more aggressive initially. I know all of this is hindsight. The only reason i bring it up is im still concerned, chris, that such a large portion of this economy, theyve run out of money, and the aggregates still okay because youve got a tiny portion that hasnt. And all of a sudden we wont just have a ground rule, we could see the economy sort of at least on paper, you know, not just on paper, in real life fall off a cliff. Yeah, look, this is what powell was getting at way back in 22 when he started hiking, when he said every time the feds let inflation get out of control, it usually ends in a recession. Were going to try not to break anything, but i cant make promises. Charles yeah. Well, now, as you said, they havent hiked since last july, inflations been going sideways the whole time. If they have to start hiking again, it could get tricky. Charles but he wont be arthur burns. Chris, thank you very much, appreciate it. So renting or buying, which one is the smart move right now . Weve got real estate expert if Lance Lambert<\/a> after this. Id love to the hear your thoughts. Tweet me cbpayneful well be right back. Pretty if, im in love. 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Lets bring in director of Consumer Research<\/a> jerome thesen. Thiessen. Obviously, im intrigued with your data visavis the headlines we started this session. Off of. Yeah, so its based on the fact that consumers are actually employed, and thats whats fueling the economy. This First Quarter<\/a>, retails already reporting earn, and the consumer is starting to spend a little bit more on general merchandise, and theyre doing that at a time when the overall amount of merchandise on sale is actually lowest weve seen in four years. So is the average percentage discount. So this is telling us despite the lower markdowns, were seeing a shift towards general merchandise. Charles shift from where though . Remember the y work lo, . Owe low . They are coming down yolo . They are coming down compared to the strong numbers weve seen. Its still healthy though, still trouble candigit growth. Charles i was looking at bank of america, the credit card data. The last day was the 11th. Entertainment was down 10. 5 . Airlines down over 3 . That was the core of yolo. So now, so if people are saying, okay, im not going to travel, ill just buy a pair of jeans, is that good or bad . Right, so for the paris quarter we saw u. S. Retail sales post a very healthy number. April was flat, buzz clothing was up but clothing was up. Charles it was up. The thing about the retail sales effect is the easter effect. It came much earlier, you do that and you still have a 0. 3 average, soerer so consumers are still spending charles but theyre spending on, the biggest thing is a 3. 1 jump at gasoline stations. Something that caught my eye i did want to ask you about, Department Stores<\/a> were up. And the internet was down. Same thing with that bank of america data. The Department Store<\/a> data was up, internet down. When did we start switching Department Stores<\/a> for internet . Listen, i root for the Department Stores<\/a> it was found month over month because you saw stronger sales in march. So remember, march saw a lot of the you have to look at it also yearoveryear. But having said that, yes, the Department Stores<\/a>, dillards reported yesterday, they have a very good mix. Were expecting to hear the from macys, also a little bit of a turnaround. But clothing really stole the show. Charles someone had a theory that because everyones on ozempic, they look good, and they want to let people see them. You know, thats a possibility. But in general, what we see is when easter comes around, people want a fresh new wardrobe, and that really plays very strong in 2024. Charles so the Consumer Sentiment<\/a>, the michigan gauge, has a high correlation with inflation expectationses, right . So sentiment goes down as expectationses for inflation goes up. We know expectations are starting to rocket again for consumers. In your report you say 143 retailers reported and 84 mentioned inflation. Im curious as to how the stocks reacted for those names that mentioned inflation. Did they fare better or worse than the general market . Home depot this week, they said that they suffered because of higher inflation, higher Mortgage Rates<\/a>, and thats affecting, to an extent, the other home retail charles right. Like love sack, theyre all expected to be in the bottom 10 when it comes to samestore sales this quarter. On the flip side, when the inflation peaked, during the pandemic, right . Since 2019 walmart saw an increase of 130 billion because of inflation. So youre seeing that inflation, yes, again, thats shifting Consumer Spending<\/a> away from the big ticket items can and going towards the bargains. So thats the play that were seeing here9 with the retail a space. Charles and it helps that they have froeslies too. Ive got goeslies. I want the share the names you do like, abercrombie. Its on track to post four consecutive quarters of doubledigit comps. Lulu and american eagle. And urban outfitters, and watch out for the gap. Analysts believe the retailer will post a positive surprise charles really . You have an amazing preference for retail. I never doubt you. Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me. Shar hrls the other end of the spectrum, the Housing Market<\/a> made a lot of news this week. We saw starts and permits lower, mortgages hanging around 7. Median home price in the United States<\/a> now, the last time we measured it 3933,5000 393,500. The peak was 416 towrkd back in june of 2022. Redfin says on rent, they also peaked in 2022 and remains elevated as well. All of this part of the rekindling of the debate of whether its better to own or to rent. Its really intensified of late. So were lucky enough to bring in editorinchief lance ham bert and, lance, i give that Lance Lambert<\/a>. I get that real estate is local, but generally, which one is better, renting or owning or buying . Yeah. The story here is that renters have really taken it on the chin during the pandemic and with all this inflation. Rents have gone up a lot. Home prices are up 47 from prepandemic levels, Mortgage Rates<\/a> from 3 to 7 , so its really been a tough time for representers. But when renters. But when you run the numbers, many most markets now it is cheaper to rent than to buy and by the tube of about 7001,000 a month for a lot of renters. But if you run the numbers and is you consider some appreciation in the future and maybe you consider that maybe Mortgage Rates<\/a> come down from 5 or from 7 to 6. 5 to 6 and they refi, the numbers get a little murkier x it could be better for some to buy charles right. But, you know, thats a lot of ifs and a lot of assumptions, and prices could go the other way. We have seen some softening in texas and florida charles but lets just say, lance, let me jump in for a moment, lets just say over a 10year period. Isnt it safe to assume that the value of the home is going to go with higher . Yeah, thats right. When you look at the short term, theres always that correction risk. But 10 years down the road home prices are going to be higher on a nominal basis, yes. Charles theres been a big push to most likely. Charles to get fannie mae and freddie mac to ramp up home equity loans. Everybody is talking about this could be a way to inject trillions of dollars into the economy, and im worried. It feels like we did Something Like<\/a> this before. What are your thoughts now about somehow home equity loans just coming to the rescue of the economy . Yeah. Freddie mac recently asked for permission from fhfa to do the home equity second mortgages to back those. And right now theres 32 trillion in home equity out there and about 300 billion in home equity loans. And so they want to help more homeowners tap into that without having to refi and lose that lower mortgage raten on their first mortgage. And wall street loves the idea. They would make a lot of money. Theyd pump trillions of dollars in in stimulus are, or they say. But theyve got to keep in mind the fed is still on the other side of the dual mandate. Were not even discussing stimulus right now, its still inflation. So do we really want to have homeowners use their homes as piggybanks right now and tap into that equity . And theres a lot to tap into. Home prices are up 47, and it just sounds like a lot of inflation. Charles yeah, yeah, it scares me. When they start creating these potting to of pots of money. You kind of talked about near term homes being toppy home. Invitation home, theyve been selling just with as many as theyve been buying since the Fourth Quarter<\/a> of last year, notwithstanding that big purchase from starwood. Could that be a sign that at least, you know, the socalled smart money think maybe the Housing Market<\/a> is peaking for at least right now . Well, the smart money has been on a bit of a lull when it comes to just going out and buying money or buying homes. The institutional side in term of scatter homes. But what theyve done inside is theyre putting a lot more money into build to rent right now. I talked to ark homes for rent, amh, their head of build for represent, and thats where the Institutional Capital<\/a> is moving into right now. Theyre bullish on the Home Building<\/a> sec sector and on build for rent. In terms of buying properties throughout neighborhoods, the math doesnt make as much sense. Home repairs are very expensive, theyre just not getting the returns on investment. So theyd rather work directly with builders. Charles great stuff, lance. Appreciate it. All right, folks, the election season underway. The main thing investors are wondering is when will rate out cuts happen . Could it still happen before the election . Hillary kramers here to share her thoughts and why jay powell is trying his best not to be a villain even though some may think hes that after all. Doe and more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Were you worried the wedding would be too much . Nahhhh. inner monologue another Destination Wedding<\/a> . . We just got back from her sisters in napa. Who gets married in napa . My daughter. Who gets married someplace more expensive . My other daughter. Cancun jamaica why cant they use my backyard with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. So we dont have to worry. Can we get out of here . I thought youd never ask. Join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real life conversations. Empower. Whats next. I dont want you to move. Im gonna miss you so much. You realize well have internet waiting for us at the new place, right . Oh, we know. We just like making a scene. Transferring your services has never been easier. Get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. Can i sleep over at your new place . Can katie sleep over tonight . Sure, honey this generation is so dramatic move with xfinity. Charles my next guest says jay powell hates being a villain, so Inflation Numbers<\/a> are mysteriously falling into line to give him the cover he needs to cut this summer. Want to bring in Investment Analyst<\/a> and Portfolio Manager<\/a> Hillary Kramer<\/a>. So, hillary, is it so youre suggesting then that somehow the datas going to be there, enough change in the data. I think its going to be an employment number. I think unemployment rate, 4. 1, the fed will cut after that. But its going to work out we still could see a out cut in july. We will see a cut charles or in september. I would definitely we know september will happen because jay powell wants to keep that job, wants that, to be in that passage of power, right . He wan withs to keep that. So the only way he can do it is to cut. But i think, charles, we could very well see a cut in july even with the market to new alltime highs. We could still see, as you said, whether its an employment number, whether inflation surprises everybody again and continues to drop even though all of our insurances are rising, rents are rising charles right. Especially all those who are graduating school and trying to make it. Hell find a way. The numbers just conveniently worked out. Charles its interesting, i had this conversation with bianco earlier in the show, and he mentioned two times that happened, and the market went ballistic because, you know, the market loves it. The hangover wont be great for main street, would it . It wouldnt be and that thats why from the very beginning, charles, you were calling for rate increases when you really needed them, and then were just so behind charles were wee mind behind. And thats when you fall off the bicycle. Charles youve been imploring folks to get out of cash and put that money in the market. Yes. Charles whats the central argument for someone saying, hey, im still making 5 on my cd . Rates are going to come down, but theres this rotation [audio difficulty] that are out are there that are opportunities that could end up being doubled, so thats what were looking for. Charles im glad you brought that up, because it feel like most guests, we talk about maybe two stocks, maybe 20 stocks in a week, right . If almost everyone has the same stock ideas, and im looking at all a kinds of names that you never hear anyone talk about on tv that are up huge. To your point, theres a lot of opportunities out there no one talks about. Oh, absolutely. Theres so many especially whether it be these israeli stocks that have come down hard, i just have to mention Elbit Systems<\/a> which weve been watching for over two decades nows which is an Israeli Defense<\/a> company that upgrades all all the technology, and the stock is down in the last 12 months going into a world charles speaking of israeli stocks, you gave us od in april. Its up 30 . Congratulations. Are you Still Holding<\/a> . Yes. Oddity is amazing because everyones looking for the next Artificial Intelligence<\/a> a. I. Play. Oddity is sephora, ulta but using Artificial Intelligence<\/a>, and it works. Using a. I. To come up with brands with nor makeup, cosmetics and customizing. Thats the world that were entering into. So this is a. I. Applied. Oddity, stay with it. It came out and ipod when no one was coming out and buying ipos, and thats why under the radar, as you were saying. Charles amazing call. Before i let you go, we talked about these big names, the biggest of them all in terms of influence reports next week, nvidia. I want to met the audience let the audience know, the last six quarters, the week after it reported it was up 5, 24, 9, 3. So the last five or six times theyve reported, this stock has rocketed higher. Of course, things have changed since then. What are you doing . If are you buying, selling, holding into this report . I am holding the nvidia i have. I did cut back about two months ago. Nvidia will probably rocket again, but everyone out there on the street is wondering why did nvidia go on 60 minutes and help themselves in is it an acquisition or is there disappointment coming . Charles to that point, the first thing they talk about a is an event many june. Sometimes you have that to buttress, like to mitigate can disappointment just in case earnings are disappointing. Hillary, thank you very much. Appreciate it. All right, so earlier this week, folks, i had the opportunity to attend a very special scholarship benefit for the boys and girls club of harlem. The young man pictured beside me left a huge impression. Well introduce you to him and the folks that are the helping to change hiings life in the process. Process. Well be rightstra back. Think process. Well be rightstra i was talking about . Not a game. Not a game. Talking about cashbackin. Cashbackin. Cashback like a pro with chase freedom unlimited. How do you cash back . I have type 2 diabetes, but i manage it well jardiance its a little pill with a big story to tell i take oncedaily jardiance at each days start as time went on it was easy to see im lowering my a1c jardiance works twentyfour seven in your body to flush out some sugar. And for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease, jardiance can lower the risk of cardiovascular death, too. Serious side effects may include ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. A rare, lifethreatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. Stop jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction. You may have an increased risk for lower limb loss. Call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of infection in your legs or feet. Taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Jardiance is really swell the little pill with a big story to tell charles so on tuesday the boyses and girl club of harlem held their youth of the year benefit at the famous edison ballroom. To say it was a rousing success would be an understatement. But to make destiny come true in the future, the club needs help from the private sector. Joining me now, ceo sharon joseph, and who joined the boys and girls club in 2016, hes interning on wall street and, sharon, i want to begin with you because with, honestly, you have brought an amazing vision to the boys and girls club. Youve got a private sector wall street background. Talk to us a little bit where you want to take it. Well, thank you so much. I think for me it was about building a bridge with. Having been on boat for 20 plus years, i saw Company Bring<\/a> in students, but they werent prepared. Often times they didnt have the socialemotional a. And so i realized that i wanted to start earlier in the process to go down in that pipeline and to continue to build a bridge so that students like q, and thats what we affectionately call him, could get exposure and opportunities. Charles so, q, what attracted you to the club in the first place . Im going to high school in harlem. Its been, like, just like not different, but like, you know its been weird in the sense of, like, you dont get many opportunities to, you know, do a lot of things in certains aspects k. If going to the boys and girls club has really been a place where i can go and be safe and have a comfortable space to go to every day to just enjoy myself and do things not normally people can do. Charles and, listen are, the reason i bring it up is because i went there, it started out as m. L. Wilson boys club, and me and my brothers moved to new york and went to harlem in 75, 73, 74, and i joined in, like, 76. And it was his an amazing, to your point, safer space where you had people who were helping you. They ran a football team, i played on the team, and it was really, you know, aces. An area that was extraordinarily dangerous, and it was hard also, to be honest with you, to be an individual when i was growing up, you know . Everyone had to act and be a certain way or you were actually in trouble. Do you ever feel some of that yourself . Not charles not to that degree, but finish. Not, no, not really. Charles okay. Its been, like, its been how do i say this . Its been, like, where you grow up and youre not, like, exposed to certain things is and having a lot of opportunities to be successful. Charles right. Let me talk to you for a mobility because robert orion, the firm itself was with founded by a vietnam veteran, purple heart recipient, and it feels like this is sort of in the ethos, in the veins of your firm, to go out and help people. Absolutely. Actually, we founded the firm on the principle of actually giving back to veterans. I mean, were a forprofit organization run and owned by veterans, but we have a social mission to a take a percentage of everything we make give it back to organizations helping veterans every single day. One of the biggest things you find is you meet these incredible people. I it kind of gives you faith in the country, and you meet people like sharon and someone who gives up a Goldman Sachs<\/a> paycheck to come and help kids in harlem is somebody that we wan to be associated with want to be associated with. Were the only veteran firm with a floor presence, and q is down there with our team. Charles you like the action down there . Yeah, everybody has been, like, has opened me and my friend with open arms and like, you know, its made everything comfortable and and seamless. Charles yeah. Sharon, i know one of your goals is to get off the dependence of the kind of funding that is sort of the grants and the government funding which is slow, inconsistent and limited and and to bring in more private sector funding. Hows that going . I have to say when we first started, again, with my wall street background, i believe in a diversified portfolio. And while we appreciate the government funding weve had over the last few years, we wanted to diversify our funding both corporations as well as foundation. And to make sure that people really understood the work that we do. I believe that its not just about the money, its about building longterm relationships. So we partner with a corporation, its now opening up Job Opportunities<\/a> for our students. And when they a start to see what they can do, it helps them to go back and excel in school because theyre more intentional about their career, more intentional about school as well as with it helps with the Racial Equity<\/a> divide, right . So we teach the kids Financial Literacy<\/a>. I get that through the corporations and the foundations. Charles right. They support that mission. Charles its amazing that Financial Literacy<\/a> is not something thats hand mandatory [inaudible] charles at a young age. Isnt it amazing . Yeah,s it is. Its not amazing, its, like, pretty bizarre and, like, not its like [laughter] he knows that i get on top of them. We have Financial Literacy<\/a> classes weekly. Sometimes i teach the class. We partner with Wharton University<\/a> to teach financial lit literacy literacy. I have to say thank you to our banks because, again, a lot of our local banks not only teach our students Financial Literacy<\/a>, but teach their parents as well. The reason why we have our Work Force Program<\/a> in the summer is because a lot of charles talk real quick about that before we run out of time. We not only train the students for six weeks, we train them in banking, in technology and media, in health care, in retail. And we pay the students. I go out and fund raise, we pay them 1300 for project learned to learn work skills. And right now i have a wait list of 150 students that i need to raise money for so they can do it. But its those type of opportunities that prepares him go work for firms. Charles well, its amazing the helping hand that youve provided. Were honored to do it. Happy to do it. Charles i think sharons always bugging you with, tell more of your friends. Hopefully as we with grow were going to bring on more and more charles and,ing questioning, were going to be watching you with, my man. Youre the trail blazer. Yes, sir. Charles you look good, you sound good, and youre an amazing success story. A lot of younger folks in the neighborhood are looking up to you as el as well. And, sharon, what can i say . You are an absolute superstar, you really are. Thank you. Charles all right, folks. Want to say thank you to share, ed and, of course, questioning. If youd like to donate to the boys and girls club of harlem, text dgch give. To 44321. And before with we go and i hand it off to cheryl, i want to say a quick word about the Boys Girls Club<\/a> of harlem and other organizations like it. You know, it really does take special people so dedicated that really they only see the finish line. They dont see the obstacles which in many cases can be like Mount Everest<\/a> and a lot more than a speed bump. One such man that was there during my time was a man named leroy carter to this day, i dont even know what he did for a living, but i do know the finals that he helped me and my do the times that he helped me and my brother or that we would come up short of the fees to play football, he all reached in his pocket. He would fill out paperwork to get insurance, he went out and found the coaches, you know . There were numerous Ground Breaking<\/a> ceremonies for the boys and girls club. A bunch of politicians would come in, make speeches and break it back up. Heres one of the events where i stood next to mr. Carter, and the cameras and the politicians would leave, but i always had faith that he would be there, and he would never give up on the kids in the community. And every community, in my opinion, needs a many carter. If we had that, wed be a better nation. Shout out to all those who volunteer and help the young in their communities. Lauren simonetti for liz claman. Lauren and i like seeing pictures of you when you were younger, charles. Charles thank you. Lauren have a goo","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia800400.us.archive.org\/25\/items\/FBC_20240517_180000_Making_Money_With_Charles_Payne\/FBC_20240517_180000_Making_Money_With_Charles_Payne.thumbs\/FBC_20240517_180000_Making_Money_With_Charles_Payne_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240703T12:35:10+00:00"}