Alone. Sometimes good to go shopping with your mom as kids. You can learn a lot. Jackie brian amen. Charles good afternoon, im charles payne, this is making money. There is palpable trepidation. The bias of the market is up but youre starting to get a little angst going into this nvidia earnings report. Lets face it it is really the bond market that has the most influence right now and weve got ed yardeni on deck to talk about bond yields, maybe a brave new world for bonds. Should we be afraid to go there. Want to know, of course what is next for equities . You need to understand the risk. Cameron dawson, always great at laying out what we should be looking for and preparing for. Of course we want to know what is keeping her up at night. 2 45 we have House Majority whip tom emmer. What he is doing to halt Central Bank Digital security. He calls it nothing more than a Big Government surveillance tool. One of the best nvidia analysts out there i think the best, beth kindig will help us break down the king of up chipmakers, also i want to see what is happening with her smci idea she said with us. It is up more than 240 . All that and so much more on making money. Charles all right, so, regarding whether it is life or the stock market there is a distinct difference between panicking and changing ones mind, right . One could be based on evidence or enhanced knowledge. With that in mind another major firm on wall street has lifted their target on the s p 500. Deutsche bank now 5500 from 5100. Now, interestingly, considering the market where the market is right now, the s p, you know, these targets that you see on your screen, outside of being wells, they dont seem to be ultimately bullish. I dont see a lot of conviction per se. For some of these folks it is really more about direction. There is no penalty for being completely wrong for a long time which is odd because clients, their clients and other people make Investment Decisions based on that screen that we showed you just a moment ago. Now maybe the conviction is with those firms who havent made a move, right . Unlike mike wilson, of course, morgan stanley, who is finally blinked, you have got some firms down there really looking for this market to stay way down and turn back down. So it is true, panic works in both ways, right . Those who throw in the towel because the parade passed them by, those who remain steadfast to an incorrect call and can only hope maybe the parade hits a speed bump and all the wheels come off. For all the hoopla about the slamdunk with nvidia tomorrow, i really think anxiety, maybe palpable fear. Youre right, nobody is selling. Look at the screen. It remains green but it is weird it is such a sure thing yet the stock is unchanged. When we talk about the broad market it is about the 10year bond yield which had the most significant influence on this market for a long time. Even more so than nvidia. For that lets bring in Yardeni Research president ed yardeni. You wrote an excellent report on bond yields yesterday. And if i understand youre saying hey we should all be looking for a new trading range with respect to that 10year yield . Yeah, i think everybodys been talking about how the fed has tightened monetary policy, how it has increased the federal funds rate by 525 basis points since march of 2022. I think what is important to realize here, is that the fed is also really normalized Interest Rates. The bond yield is actually back to normal. We had that abnormal period between the great financial crisis, the great virus crisis, when the fed was targeting the fed funds rate at zero and we hat quantitative easing. I think that is behind us. I think were back to where we were before the great financial crisis and look at the charts, you will see the bond yield was four to 5 and the economy was doing absolutely fine. I think the economy and the stock market will continue to do just fine with yields between four and 5 . By the way, i think it is fair, i think it is only fair investors who really dont want to take any risk, can buy money markets at 5 and bonds at 4 1 2 right now. Charles you also weighed in on the feds 2 target by looking at inflation versus disinflation. You took both sides of the argument. I want to discuss that. Part of the notion if the fed gets to that 2 target is unwith the reasons folks think yields will come down. Right. Charles on the inflation side, fiscal deficits, deglobalization, onshoring, all those are facts. Disinflation, you say could be counterbalanced with tech ininnovation and increasing productivity and aging. Do these three on both sides completely balance each other out . Well i think they do. The question is, at what level . I think the level is not 3 or higher which is, what some persistent inflation people think but, i really think were heading to 2 . I think it could stablize around 2 . So beware of what you wish for you may get it and that could include, thats not so bad. Charles hey, last week toward the end of the week you noted earnings estimates for 2026, 313. You said okay, you extrapolated that, 400 in 2030 is not unreasonable. Yeah. Charles does that mean between now and then . Obviously there will be pullbacks, there will be corrections, who knows, there could be a crash but is overall message to ininvestors though have a longterm, be longterm bullish . Well i think the Market Trends suggest we could get the dow to 60,000 by 2030. We could get the s p up to 8,000 by 2030 and thats based on some fairly normal expectations of what Earnings Growth is likely to do. So i think its a bull market. I think that it will continue to be a bull market. My main concern is actually that the fed gets twitchy and starts lowering Interest Rates which could create too much of a good thing. A meltup followed by a meltdown. I dont see any reason why the fed needs to lower Interest Rates. I hope they dont. The economy is doing just fine with this level of Interest Rates. Before i let you go, i only have 30 seconds. You mentioned a conversation with joe fishback. The put call ratio could signal a nearterm pullback . Joe fishback is a friend, private individual trader, has got a lot of experience and he watches some of the trading technicals and he does keep an eye out for us on the put call ratio and the put call ratio has stayed pretty low here. We prefer bull markets where everybody is skeptical. Im somewhat concerned to see that wall street is joining the bull camp. I would rather have them stay on the bearish side but you know, its got my contrary instincts up. Charles yeah. Listen, im the same way. I love when you know, the seat is bearish or skeptical. Yeah. I agree. Charles to your point, you got to make a decision. Theyre all playing catchup. Ed, thank you very much. Always appreciate you. My pleasure, thank you. Charles so my next guest says this earnings season was the moment of truth. I want to bring in all Spring Global investment senior Portfolio Manager brian van con kite. Brian, what have you learned so far from this earnings season . This earnings season was a great chance for reality check on some of the major themes facing investors today and one of the more notable observations for us was evidence consumers seem fatigued right now. Weve all seen the macro data, survey data showing Consumer Sentiment is sliding. Credit card balances rising, delinquencies rising all negative macro points. This earnings season it is started to show up in the fundamentals. Big grocers and retailers talking about a shift down in bass debt size. Restaurants talk about focus on value, negative comp pressure. Home depot and other large home repair customers talking about deferring investments. One of the great last bastions of this market is consumer stier to spend. We see signs it might be fading. Take a reality check, make sure the next decision doesnt walk them right into a growing risk. Charles im thrilled youre bringing this up. To be quite frank with you, the majority of folks i bring on say, hey, forget about the nuances. Every now and then the numbers dip and then they go up. Bottom line as long as people are working, theyre optimistic and if theyre optimistic the stock market will go up. Isnt is not that simple. It is not that simple t creates gait risk for investors. He can exuberance is high and confidence fed supporting i i investors is driving market. I think the window for the fed to be the great hope for sus closing. The idea they activelily cut with inflation still high, unemployment in balance that is hard argument to make. Exsue bans might fade over the coming earnings season. That is a fear for investors this think about. We want to use earnings season which companies have ohio visibility demand despite the fed not, generous and which have Balance Sheets that allow them to control their destiny. The key for us as longterm Investors Companies use their Balance Sheet capacity in unique ways to drive future. Through inorganic investments, organic investments and stock dividends. This will allow you to help the macro risk. Charles a lot of that in the vain of value. You sent some stocks over. I think you noted, you used some quant research. I dont know we can go through all of them, but i did see Vulcan Materials which i love. I think that is almost selfevident but cbre, that is sort of in that commercial real estate space everyone is staying away from right now. You see an opportunity there . Well it is one of the few areas where investor excitement is actually very depressed which means it could be an opportunity for us as investors. Cbre is commercial relate estate focused bits. Everyone is focused on transaction side of business. They benefit advisors and brokers for leasing transauctions and sales transactions. That has fallen oaf as Interest Rates rose and transaction volume soldly faded away. The other side of the business high recurring revenue they do Maintenance Work across every type of commercial property. That is being stable. That is growing nicely. The thing missing about cbre they have not slowed down in their investments. They continue to invest organic growth on both sides, make acquisitions. When we get through this part of the cycle, transaction volume picks up as it always does, they create much higher market share much higher earnings per share on the other side of this little slow down today. I think commercial real estate fears is opportunity for us as investors. Charles bryant, great stuff. Lets talk again real soon, thank you. Thank you. Charles folks, my next guest is long equities. Although she does see both the bull bear case. She will share them with us. Cameron dawson joins me next. grandpa vo im the richest guy in the world. Hi baby woman 1 vo i have inherited the best traditions. woman 2 vo i have a great boss. Its me. man 1 vo i have people, people i can count on. man 2 vo i have time to give grandma vo and a million stories to share. grandpa vo if thats not rich, i dont know what is. vo the key to being rich is knowing what counts. Inside every splenda product is a mission. To help people live happier healthier and longer lives by making it easier to cut out sugar. From our factory to our stevia farm, splendas team of over 2000 individuals are dedicated to helping people live their best lives. 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You always lay out the pros and cons or the risk and reward so lets talk about that for a moment because you have a got a list of tailwinds and potential headwinds for the market. Start with the tailwinds, what keeps it going . We have to appreciate the technicals are still pretty strong for the market. We look at things like momentum and britt. Were still in an uptrend, seasonality are good. All the things that suggest that the market could at least keep drifting higher. We have to appreciate the eps estimates for the 12 month forward keep going meyer. Theyre sported by things like gdp estimates remaining resilient. The last thing ha liquidity is still supportive. The fed is taper being qt we have potential liquidity support from treasury given what theyre doing with the treasury general account. All this is tailwinds can keep the market drifting higher but that doesnt mean we should grow complacent. Charles do you sense, i am sensing, i sense some complacency, but by the same token this market in my mind should be a lot higher than it is. There is somewhere woven in with trepidation. We can measure the headwinds. We see positioning is as long as it was back in times like 2021 or early 2022. Were getting to the points of things being extreme. Were not maybe quite there yet. Maybe things like sentiment could be drug a little bit more into extreme levels but the other part of it is there complacency in growth forecasts . We think this might be the actually the most important one. Weve seen a huge rerating in gdp forecasts over the last 12 months. They have gone up by almost 200 basis points for 2024 estimates. Were asking the question, how much higher can they go . Mostly because were starting to see economic surprises turn negative, meaning Economic Data is coming in weakerthanexpected. So can we keep raising forecasts which is very good for equities when forecasts go up. Can we keep doing that if data is coming in a bit weaker . Charles i mean that is the senator of scenario wall street tried to paint for itself coming into the end of the year, right . Somehow well get a soft landing. That the economy would be Strong Enough and still the fed would end up cutting up to six or seven times and it is so odd, the whole thing, cameron, was odd to me you could have it all, every way so perfectly and so positive that way. Where are you now when it comes to these yields, when it comes to the fed . Because the secondary argument was, well the economy is Strong Enough we dont need fed rate cuts but now to your point these economic surprises have come in fast and furiously and now the fed is back on the table for many in terms of a bull argument . Yeah i mean this market has been one that wanted to have its cake and eat it too. The interesting thing even as the fed has come in significantly tighter than expected, been much more hawkish than what was expected back in january, remember the market was pricing in six 1 2 cuts in january. Now it is closer to two cuts for the full year of 2024. The market has continued to barrel on and barrel on really driven by multiple expansion which usually is sensitive to Interest Rates. So we think it all comes back to growth which is if growth forecasts keep going up, equities can shrug off higher interest Interest Rates and slug oaf a tighter fed. If growth forecasts start to get cut for any reason, weakening in the labor market, a weakening in the consumer thats when you could see a bigger risk off tone for this market and protracted kind of correction than the little mini one we had in april. Charles so, but you are long right now. I know youre going through a rebalancing kind of thing. But youre long right now, how critical, i have got 30 seconds, is being like nvidia where everyone has put their hopes and dreams into this. I never have seen anything like it. The hype on this thing is huge. Say for instance, they were to miss somehow or give some sort of faulty guidance, is there some sort of potential surprise out there on that level that could make everyone have to go back to the drawing boards quickly . Yeah, if nvidia were to miss, it could certainly shake out loose hands. We have seen huge rushes into the market given the strength weve had. Were watching really close hi to your point. Everything hinges on it. We do have semiconductor exposure which is sensitive to this overall mood but nvidia and the growth story around a. I. Is certainly bolstered the mood of the market so if that were to be challenged we could see a little bit more of a shaking loose. Charles yeah, there is no doubt. Chatgpt, i think changed everything for markets and for wall street analysts and for professional investors. Initially many werent on board. Now i think too many might be on board. Well see. Hey, cameron, thanks so much. Love your background, fantastic. Talk to you again soon. Thank you. Charles Home Equity Loans were up last quarter, in fact the most since 2008 but remember 2008 . Oh, my goodness. Anybody that was in the Housing Market does. You didnt have to be in the Housing Market. It scorched everyone. I will ask carol roth and pete st. Onge, is it smart to go down that path again. Well be right back. Known as a loving parent. Known for lessons that matter. Known for being a free spirit. No one wants to be known for cancer, but a treatment can be. Keytruda is known to treat cancer, fdaapproved for 17 types of cancer. 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