Paul welcome to the journal editorial report, The Middle East is on as the world prepares to mark the 1year anniversary of the October 7th Terror Attack with the israeli military pressing forward on multiple frontend taking the fight to irans socalled Axis Of Resistance in gaza, lebanon and yemen. Benjamin netanyahu vowed to change the Balance Of Power in the region. How has the at least changed since the israel hamas war began . Lets ask seth jones, senior Vice President and director of the international Security Program at the center for strategic and international studies. Good to see you again, happy to have you here. How has October 7th and the Israel Response to that changed The Middle East . There is both a shortterm and longerterm impact in the change of the Balance Of Power. The first is in the short term, weve seen hezbollah knocked on its back for the Command And Control structure that has been severely degraded. The leader of hezbollah has been killed and its interesting to see where the major response to israel actually came from iran, not by hezbollah which hezbollah has its own Ballistic Missile arsenal, guided and unguided yet it was iran that responded indicating hezbollah is finding it difficult to conduct any meaningful Command And Control, the second issue is more concerning. Iran still has, is the major power in this large axis that goes from lebanon through syria into iraq, into iran and even western afghanistan, parts of yemen. The us has not been effective in Degrading Irani and reach into these areas so unless that happens i think the iranians will continue to push over the next several weeks into months. Paul consider that against hamas and gaza. The israelis seem to have had substantial success. Their goal was to eradicate hamas, not going to do that necessarily but send it back and the world, i am surprised you didnt see that enormous firing of missiles and rockets the israelis themselves feared raining down on israeli cities. They seem to have had success against both of those terror groups. Hamas, its leadership has been killed, israelis operate freely in chunks, for now, hamas, not conducting Law And Order and the same with hezbollah, hezbollah has by our estimates, 750,000 and upwards of standup weapons including Ballistic Missiles. It has launched very few especially Ballistic Missiles against israel, which is having serious difficulties. Paul as you say, iran is the central actor on the antiisrael side but for the first time, iran has attacked israel twice. Israel is bowing to respond. Can israel significantly degrade iranian missiles and resources, even their economic power, by itself . Or does it really need the us . When i look at iranian activity across The Middle East, not just in iran but lebanon, syria, iraq, yemen, theres no Way Israel alone has the Capability Or Partnership say with the iraqi government to conduct action to weaken irans foothold. The striking thing, the current us administration is negotiating a deal to withdraw its forces over the course of 2025 and potentially the first part of 2026 which left afghanistan so the us right now has gone in the opposite direction which is reducing its footprint and reducing its influence in the region. Claudia the question, to me anyway, the last three american president s have to one extent or another wanted to pull back the us presence in The Middle East and yet they have been pulled back in each time. What is the lesson for the united states of the last year since October 7th . Understandable that administrations are concerned about the chinese in particular. They are a major power, building a large industrial base and military capability. At the same time, the us has major adversaries, the russians invaded ukraine, the irani in this operate in The Middle East and with particular interest, we are seeing a lot of support between these three major actors. The iranians are Building Drones in russia. I think what i take away from the reality on the ground is the us Cant Pick and choose where it wants to go, its adversaries have a vote. Doesnt make sense at this point to focus on one region like the pacific, and pool forces out of The Middle East because theres going to be a need for us presence in the foreseeable future. Paul the wont be able to withdraw from The Middle East either. Appreciate it. The Vice President all candidates square off in their one and only debate on tuesday. Did j. D. Vance make a better case than Donald Trump . Yay Woo Hoo ensure, with 27 vitamins and minerals, nutrients for immune health. And ensure complete with 30 grams of protein. 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Vance faced off with Tim Walz in their first and only D Bait with vance taking a match Kamala Harris in what he called the harris administration. She has been the Vice President for 3 and a half years, she had the opportunity to enact all these great policies and what she has done instead is drive the cost of food higher by 25 , drive the cost of housing higher by 60 , open The American Southern Border and make middleclass life unaffordable for a large number of americans. Of Kamala Harris has such great plans for how to address middle class problems than she ought to do them now. Paul lets bring in our panel, dan heninger, kim strassel, what did you learn from the debate that you didnt know before . A lot more articulate than the top of the ticket. That was a revelation. People got to hear two candidates arguing about what is at stake in the selection other than the personalities. I think j. D. Vance probably got the better of it on balance but they did not talk about defense spending, the world is in the state of disorder. The united states has to make a larger commitment in the future, good question is whether democrats and republicans are willing to do that. They didnt talk about ukraine. J. D. Vance is ambivalent about supporting ukraine but on balance we got a clear picture of what the two candidates these represent. Paul the consensus is vance did well i repaired some of the damage to his reputation that came out about his comments, do you think he did that . He was respectful and i think he connected with the audience in a way that surprised a lot of people given the caricatures that are out there. A couple answers in particular helped him. When he was talking about abortion, for instance, tried to relate, said that his party, republicans, had not done a good enough job understanding the challenges and emotional difficulties a lot of women face, that they needed to do more to repair that and earn back trust. People were expecting him to tear into Tim Walz. Instead they definitely had sharp disagreements but it was paul light. He came out not just saying more about Donald Trump and his campaign but leaving a better impression himself. Paul another issue in the news, the terrible damage from Hurricane Helene across the southeast in North Carolina. How do you think the biden administrations Responses Gun . Hard to tell. The hurricane hit some areas in georgia and North Carolina that arent used to these kinds of storms. The problem is the biden administration is asking congress to appropriate more Emergency Funds, more Emergency Funds but it has been spending that money to care for migrants. This is not a good issue for the democrats. The press is trying to deflect from this issue that republicans are trying to exploit by saying trump would have been worse if you look at how he handled other storms, wildfires, natural disasters, he did a poor, lousy job. I think there is justifiably of some scrutiny about how the administration has been spending fema funds. Paul mayorkas, the head of homeland security, said if theres another hurricane we dont have the money, the implication is weve been spending it, almost 1 billion, helping cities cope with migration. Thats not what these funds were intended to do. You could have a lawsuit the administration has been misappropriating funds. If they had wanted the money they should have asked congress to do that but they didnt. Paul another issue, the anniversary of October 7th give us a chance to talk about bidens legacy. A year later where do you think it is . A fairly poor state. The legacy begins with the pullout from afghanistan, the biggest dark spot on that legacy. Now we are ending with the impending war in The Middle East and at the moment what seems clear is the united states, President Biden in particular, is not playing a significant role in whats going on in The Middle East between israel, hezbollah, hamas, and iran. Israel has decided it has to take these steps to put down hezbollah, possibly strike iran as well and President Biden throughout this period has kept saying what we really need is a ceasefire. After all this time, a ceasefire seems irrelevant to whats going on and one of the things about the debate was how infrequently bidens name came up. He is a nonpresident. Paul Tim Walz doesnt want to talk about him, harris doesnt want to talk about him and i think j. D. Vance was right, focus on harris. He said the harris administration. He still president , still the commanderinchief, hes not executing the Commanderinchief Role and i think thats going to be his legacy. Paul the collapse of american deterrence in europe, certainly The Middle East, less so china. Asiapacific. Thats because china has its own problems. With 31 days to go until the election, control of the house is heating up. Our panel on the races to watch and what is at stake in the 119th congress next. And doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browsel but it blocks cookies and creepy ads that follow youa and other companies. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Theres news, and theres good news. Like thousands of patients receiving free life changing surgeries, from volunteer doctors and nurses on hospital ships. All made possible by donations. We love good news. Paul 31 days to go into the election, battle for the House Of Representatives is in the balance as republican scramble to hang onto their razor thin majority and democrats look to flips red seats in california and New York and Name Hakeem jeffries the next speaker. Kim, the house right now, republicans have a narrow majority, four seats or so i think. Who has got the urge for the next congress . Reporter right now this is going to be tight. If you look out there, theres only about maybe 25 or 30 races remotely competitive, a dozen that are truly competitive. Whoever comes out on top, they wont have a huge majority. We are not talking a new leader that has a 30 Vote Cushion in the end. It is still going to be somebody with a five vote majority, maybe 8 vote majority. Republicans are feeling pretty good they are on the offensive in more seats because of some of those victories but the mood of the country is such that they are really hitting democrats hard on some of these votes they forced them to take in the house where they sided with the biden administration on a number of unpopular policies. The gop is hitting on them hard that way. It is going to be a squeaker but i would say they are in position to keep the majority. Paul the democrats are focusing on two big democratic run states, New York and california, where republicans in the last couple elections have done surprisingly well. What are the chances of that . In california, five or six seats are up for grabs which one democratic seat in Orange County which is open because she retired, the best opportunity. Polls show the republican in that race, actually ahead. It would be a big pickup. The other seats they are playing defensive on, in part because Donald Trump is top of the ticket and democrats are doing a really good job trying to link republicans, michelle steel, mike garcia, to Donald Trump and say that they are himaga republicans. Another thing they are running on in New York, basically blasting the airwaves with commercials about tying republicans to supporting Abortion Bands or in many cases not saying prolife if they are republicans who are prochoice they are saying they are affiliated with groups that want to ban abortion. Paul the republicans in california are fighting back not so much against washington but sacramento. Reporter thats the case in sacrament, increased energy costs, increase housing, in the case of katie porters seat, the State Senator running at that makes it a very easy argument to make. Paul where are the republican pickup opportunities outside what was mentioned in california . Many of them, theres maine, also michigan and wisconsin. What is interesting about it, they have to pinpoint these states, there are 435 seats in the House Of Representatives. 90 of them are not competitive. People get upset when they think president ial election will be decided by seven swing states. Control of the House Of Representatives is going to be determined by 30 House Races around the country. In california or new York Look at the election map, the blue in california, San Francisco and los angeles. Further in the did gets pink or red. And what that suggests is pockets. Republicans have support, and there are several election cycles, those are the areas they have to hold. And they hold the majority. Paul some could be held by, in workingclass hispanic voters, and california and elsewhere. And they put those Texas Border in play, and they are also seeing some places where theres a couple big pickup opportunities. The democrats sort of became the democratic representative after alaska, and they are getting it right. And that the republican district, and they are spread across the country. And whether democrats can successfully use abortion. Paul still ahead, he wanted unions to get more power and he got it. Our panel looks at President Bidens big labor legacy. From the Gulf Coast to New England for three days. B feelst your wallet. Whatever you do, do it for less, at harbor freight. Welcome to ameriprise. Im sam morrison. My Brother Max recommended you. So, my best Friend Sophie says youve been a huge help. At ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. Our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. Because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. Hows your father doing . To help reach your goals with confidence. My sisters told me so much about you. Thats why its more than advice worth listening to. Its advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. Israel needs you. We desperately need Tens Of Thousands to respond. 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