The bigger battle that to help to save the west . Does that lie to save the west . Does that lie in america next, the immigration down 10. It has dropped by 10 to the uk, but thats from a record high of 764,000. But immigration is still more than the size of nottingham and newcastle combined , and its newcastle combined, and its three times the total in 2019. Will we ever take back control of our borders and theyre unfit and theyre fat. A shock new poll has revealed that british children are among the laziest in the world. A mere 11 of girls get the exercise they need, and a staggering 43 of girls aged 15 are fat. What can we do about bloated british bands . And thats all coming in your next hour. Your next hour. Welcome to the show. Delights to have your company well, show. Delights to have your company well , the day after that company well, the day after that dramatic snap election was called on this show yesterday. Now were having to face another shock. And its this nigel farage isnt going to stand in britain. Hes instead going to help donald trump in america with a grassroots conservative movement. Do you think nigel is abandoning britain when it needs him the most, or actually , has him the most, or actually, has he served his time here just first past the post, prevent any meaningful interaction from him, and actually is the bigger battle to save the entire western world from woke, from net zero, from uncontrolled immigration. Does that big a battle lie in america . I want your responses on this. Has nigel betrayed britain or has he done the right thing . Please send your messages. Ill read as many as i can before the end of the show. Ive already got over 600 come through on this. It sent you berserk. Get in touch. Gbnews. Com yoursay but before we start the show, its your latest News Headlines with sam francis. Martin, thank you very much. And good afternoon. From the newsroom. 3 02. And i just want to start by bringing you some breaking news that were getting from the metropolitan police this afternoon, that a 64 year old man has been charged with assisting the russian intelligence service. Howard phillips has been remanded in custody. Thats after custody. Thats after a Counter Terrorism investigation into suspect and offences under the National Security act. We understand he is expected to appear at Westminster Magistrates Court later this afternoon. Any more details on that . We will of course, bring to you later in the hour. In other news, the Prime Minister says that voters should back him if they want the rwanda deportation scheme to succeed, but concedes that flights wont get off the ground before the general election. Rishi sunak general election. Rishi sunak also says hes putting the economy and Global Security at the heart of his campaign. It comes as Political Party leaders have begun their six weeks of trying to win votes, after it was announced that polls will open on the 4th of july. The timing of the announcement came as a surprise to some, with labour polling 20 points ahead, kicking off the conservative campaign this morning, rishi sunak claimed that labour would do absolutely nothing to stop the boats. Everyone else is starting to agree with my approach, which is bold. The one person that doesnt is keir starmer. Bold. The one person that doesnt is keir starmer. Thats doesnt is keir starmer. Thats a choice that this election, he thinks that we should just offer an amnesty to Illegal Migrants to make us a soft touch of europe. It would make us a magnet for thousands of migrants coming from everywhere. So thats the choice at this election. Do you think my plan is the right one . Do you think im the one thats taking bold action to secure our borders to and stop the boats . Or do you think hes going to do that . And its pretty clear that on this issue, not only does he not share the countrys values, that its a problem. Hes going to do absolutely nothing about it. Absolutely nothing about it. And starting his Election Campaign in the south east of england. Earlier, labour leader sir keir starmer says that what the conservatives have done to the conservatives have done to the country is unforgivable and that voters dont need to put up with it. Rishi sunak clearly does not believe in his rwanda plan , i think thats been clear plan, i think thats been clear from this morning, because hes not going to get any flights off. I think that tells its own story. I dont think hes ever believed that plan is going to work. And so hes called an election early enough to have it not tested before the election. We have to deal with the terrible loss of control of the border under this government. We have to tackle the small boats that are coming across. Nobody, but nobody should be making that journey. Journey. Meanwhile, the deputy leader of the liberal democrats, daisy coopen of the liberal democrats, daisy cooper, has ruled out a possible coalition with the conservatives. People want politicians to be talking about our nhs and social care, and about the cost of living crisis. People are struggling to see a gp, theyre struggling to see a gp, theyre struggling to see a gp, theyre struggling to see a dentist, theyre battling long waiting lists. Theyre worried that if you call an ambulance, it wont turn up. And on top of all of that, theyre still struggling to pay the bills to put food on the table. Liberal democrats have been utterly relentless about talking about these issues for the last few months and years, and were going to keep on talking about the nhs and the cost of living over the next six weeks. And in scotland in the last hour or so. The first minister, john swinney, has said that most voters want to see the back of what he called the disastrous conservative government. Never has a government deserved to lose more than rishi sunaks government. You want sunaks government. You want higher Living Standards and a fairer country where everyone can lead, secure, happy, healthy lives. You want a National Health service you can rely upon. Most of you think that brexit was a terrible mistake. You do not think westminster works for scotland and you want scotland to have a strong voice. All of those things sum up what i am about. I am about. In other news, official estimates show that net migration fell to 685,000 in 2023. The office for National Statistics says. Thats down 10 from the record of 606,000 764,000. In 2022. Figures suggest just over 1. 2 Million People arrived in the uk last yean people arrived in the uk last year, while 532,000 are likely to have left the country. The to have left the country. The family of a ten year old who died in a mudslide in North Yorkshire say she was a happy and bubbly go lucky little girl. And bubbly go lucky little girl. Primary School StudentLeah Harrison was killed yesterday afternoon soon after getting into difficulty near carlton bank. It was believed she was on a school trip at the time. Its understood that Mount Pleasant primary school, where she was a student, have said that the incident is a heartbreaking tragedy and that leah was a much loved part of the school community. Alan bates, the lead campaigner for justice in the post office scandal, says he has no sympathy for Paula Vennells, the former head of the post office is giving evidence on the second day of her much anticipated questioning. Earlier, the horizon inquiry heard that the company had received legal advice against a review of its it system because it would open the floodgates to damages claims. But Paula Vennells says she wasnt aware of those claims. Vennells says she wasnt aware of those claims. For vennells says she wasnt aware of those claims. For the latest of those claims. For the latest stories, you can sign up to gb news alerts by scanning the qr code on your screen or go to gb news. Com alerts. Now, though, its back to. Martin. Its back to. Martin. Thank you. Sam, weve got an action packed show ahead. Lets get stuck in now. General election battle lines are firmly being drawn as rishi sunak and sir keir starmer begin hitting the campaign trail and laying out their visions for the future of the country and the Prime Minister was in derbyshire this morning and sought to draw dividing lines on evergreen issues like the economy and immigration. And he claimed that economic stability had returned , economic stability had returned, but appeared to have met. That flies to rwanda would not take off before the election. Meanwhile, the labour leader attacked the conservatives record on the economy and said his party was in the service of working people. Well, our working people. Well, our Political Correspondent olivia utley now joins us live from downing street. Olivia, welcome to the show. The morning after the night before, as it were. Theyre both in full campaign mode. Shall we start with the extraordinary admission from rishi sunak that, after all, flights to rwanda are key policy, a headline piece of legislation might not even happen. Well, absolutely. Rishi sunak promised to stop the boat. He was planning to do that with the rwanda scheme. He managed to get the rwanda scheme through parliament. Eventually it took a long time, but now it looks like it looks almost certain that no flights will actually take off before the 4th of july. Now, we know that rishi sunak originally wanted flights to depart before the spring. Even so , it sounds the spring. Even so, it sounds as though rishi sunak is keen to make immigration a big talking point of the Election Campaign. Now, why is that when demonstrably he seems to have not done too well on tackling it . Well, i think its because he thinks that labour would do an even worse job. Their plan is pretty thin and in an interview with gb news earlier, Yvette Cooper sort of evaded, dodged and talked only in skeleton terms about labours plan for immigration. What rishi sunak is trying to set this up, as is , if trying to set this up, as is, if you vote for us on the 4th of july, then flights were around. July, then flights were around. It will leave on the fifth, sixth, 7th of july. Those flights are almost ready to go. Thats what the message were getting out of downing street is. If you vote for labour, not only is there no clear plan for immigration, but also those flights which would be about to go under, the conservatives will be dropped , will be scrapped. Be dropped, will be scrapped. Thats what labour have said theyre going to do. Thats the conservatives message. But it is pretty tricky to fight an election on the grounds of illegal immigration. When you have pledged to stop the boats and have totally failed to do that. In and have totally failed to do that. In fact, the numbers of small boats have gone up on last yean small boats have gone up on last year, even though there was a little dip under rishi sunak earlier this year and the year before. So its going to be a pretty tough sell for the Prime Minister. The other issue, which hes certainly going to try and centre this general election around, is the economy and there there is slightly better news. He has managed to cut inflation again, one of his five pledges now down to 2. 3 from 11 in october 2022. But of course people arent actually feeling that much richer, at least not yet. Everyone thought that the Prime Minister was going to wait until the autumn, when Interest Rates have hopefully gone down a little bit, and the money in peoples pocket felt a little bit more. He hasnt chosen to do that. Hes chosen to hope that the people accept that the economic picture is rosier , that economic picture is rosier, that a corner is being turned even if they cant feel it themselves. The conservatives will make this about immigration and the economy if they possibly can. What will labours fightback be . Well, olivia utley, thank you downing street. The sun is shining on you in a way it didnt on rishi sunak yesterday. Didnt on rishi sunak yesterday. Well come back to you later in the show. And joining me now is sir john curtice, the legendary polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. And welcome to the strathclyde. And welcome to the show, john. Its always an absolute pleasure. You wrote a absolute pleasure. You wrote a fascinating piece in the papers today saying rishi had better be an extraordinary campaigner. Today saying rishi had better be an extraordinary campaigner. And an extraordinary campaigner. And what youre saying there, if i read between the lines, is all of the polling, all of the evidence seems to suggest that rishi sunak is going to have to pull the mother of all rabbits out of a hat to have any chance of winning the next general election. Tell me some more. Election. Tell me some more. Yeah. I mean, the honest truth is that all the historical precedents stand against him now. History is historical. Records are there to be broken, but to breaking the Historical Records isindeed breaking the Historical Records is indeed the challenge that mr sunak has has faced himself. So, lets go through a few examples. So the last time a Prime Minister called a general election , this far behind the election, this far behind the poll is actually somewhat further behind in the polls was john major in 1997, despite his best efforts during the Election Campaign itself, conservative support only rose by one point. Labours lead actually fell, primarily because the liberal democrats gained ground. What was the what was the historical backdrop to this . Well, the historical backdrop was, of course, that the conservatives got into trouble in that parliament in the immediate wake of the market crisis of 1992, black wednesday, when the pound was forced out of the European Exchange rate mechanism, mr sunak now is having to persuade voters to vote for him, despite having presided over his predecessor presiding over the market crisis of september and october 2022. Miss miss trusss fiscal event and the Historical Records say that governments that preside over market crises, including labour ones, do not survive at the ballot box. Indeed, then also youve just been talking a little bit about how well there are the first signs, perhaps of economic recovery. John major had four and a half years of the best record of Economic Growth since 1945 at that point, but the voters just werent willing to forgive him for that market drama. So, again, theres a just some simple examples from history, from conservative Party History, from conservative Party History as to how mr sunak is going to have to achieve objectives and turnarounds that , objectives and turnarounds that, john major was not able to do in the past. The past. And of course, the last time we had a snap election was 2017 with theresa may. The conservatives were 20 points ahead and they almost blew that. Does a snap election have any particular impact on peoples mindsets . I mean, rishi sunak would like to think that hes in the driving seat, but does it have any impact on if when you call an election quickly, historically . Well , of course, i historically . Well, of course, i mean, maybe to a degree in that insofar as, in the middle of a parliament, certainly like in 2017, voters may have been quite tuned out, not expecting election, not particularly thinking that much about how theyre going to vote for. And in the context of the site of a Prime Minister who had many admirable qualities, but who i think by her now, her own admission was pretty inept and uncomfortable at campaigning against, Jeremy Corbyn, who proved to be rather better at it than most people anticipated. So voters got new information at a time where they werent necessarily thinking about it. Now, at the moment at least, you know, voters are probably tuned into the fact that there was a general election coming. Not that too long in the distant future. Indeed, the polls have been suggesting that many voters were quite keen to have an election now. And to that extent at least , theyll be grateful for the opportunity that mr sunak has given them. And given also the relative stability in the polls. Since the autumn of 2022, and the way mr sunak has failed in the last 18 months to be able to turn things around again, you can see why, perhaps in this snap election, which isnt really anything like a snap as 2017 or indeed 2019, isnt perhaps necessarily going to. Its going to be so easy to persuade voters to change their minds. One thing, of course, to minds. One thing, of course, to say about 2017, that is the one election which where indeed the lead changed dramatically. So if mr sunak could achieve what Jeremy Corbyn achieved against, theresa may in 2017, maybe we could knock ten points off labours lead. Thats how i make the calculation. But that would the calculation. But that would still leave labour 11 points ahead. So still leave labour 11 points ahead. So sirjohn, you ahead. So sir john, you concluded your article today by saying can rishi sunak achieve something in six weeks that he hasnt in 18 months . Could you do something as crude as give me a percentage chance of rishi sunak winning this election, based purely on the polling and the data in front of you now , well, look, front of you now, well, look, ive, ive long been in the pubuc ive, ive long been in the Public Domain as saying that is a 99 chance that sir keir starmer is the next Prime Minister and thats not just to do with the scale of the poll polling challenge that mr sunak faces. Its also that if we if he does succeed quite dramatically in reducing labours lead and we get into Hung Parliament terr