K-Wave – Real or No : vimarsana.com

QUESTION: What is your opinion on Kondratieff Waves?
EH
ANSWER: All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973 which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1973, and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.