With forecasts that it will win under 50% of the vote in this year's elections, the ruling party prepares for a sea-change, The African National Congress (ANC) will be gravely weakened in this year's national and provincial elections with its share of the vote likely to fall below 50%, but it will not be forced out of government. The fate of President Cyril Ramaphosa depends on how far the ANC vote falls; if below 45%, there will be a concerted push for a new leader.