Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20180105 : vima

KQED Nightly Business Report January 5, 2018

And it did so at a record pace. It is the latest show of strength that has taken that blue chip index up more than 25 over the past year. The economy is growing. The labor market is strengthening as evidenced by todays private payroll jobs report. Corpore profits are rising. And it didnt g we broke a very, very big barrier, 25,000. And there were those who say we wouldnt break 25,000 by the end of the eighth year. We did in fact break 25,000, very substantially break it, very easily. So i g new number is 30,000. But what it means is every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs, it means success, it means 401 k s that are flourishing. The dow jones industriae adv 25,075. The nasdaq added 12. The s p 50 10. Bob pisani takes a look at the first big milestone of 2018. Reporter the dow hit 25,000. It hit 20,000 almost exactly a year ago. Many are amazed that the market keeps enhancing. Its not incomprehensible. China has had gdp growth at 6. 5 . The japanese market just closed at its 26year high. Businesses repor their strongest activity since 2011. The adp report has been better than expected. Dont forget, tax cuts have added fuel to record earnings. Instead of s p Earnings Growth up 10 in 2018, analysts are talking about 15 Earnings Growth. What could kill the rally . Historically the two biggest killers of bull markets have been recessions, and aggressive fed rate hikes. Theres no recession on the horizon. If the Economic Data continues to surprise, the fed may get more aggressive. But thats a story for later in the year. The bears argue the market is expensive. It true, but when you have an economic expansion like this, with a rise in earnings, the multiples can be higher than normal. The final bear argument, a terrorist at or a serious conflict with north korea ma ma concern, but the markets have learned not to price in these events unless theyre imminent. For nightly business r bob pisani at the new york stocexchange. So which stocks played a major role in taking the dow to its new high . Our dominic chu takes a look at that one. Reporter it took les a year for the dow to march from 20,000 to 25,000. Lets take a look some of the names that really powered that big 5,000point move, because we all know the dow jones indu is a price weighted index. The stocks with the highest share prices move the index the most. That being said, check out that move. 5,000 points in a little under a year. The biggest contributor to the dow during that span, boeing, the aerospac 900 points to that 5,000point rally. Unitedhealth group, caterpillar, 3m, and Home Improvement retailer h if you add these up, youll see that just about half of the dows gains between 20,000 and 25,000 were just these five stocks alone. Its not all positive. Some of the names didnt do all that well. Check out some of these. Pharmaceutical giant merck has dragged the dow down during that timespan. General electr is not a big high priced stock anymore but it dragged 82 poi dows performance. Big blue, ibm. As we talk about the march for the next leg higher in the dow jones in average, well talking about whether or not e stocks can turn around or whether the momentum in shares like boeing, home depot and others can maintain that upside. For nightly business r im dominic chu. To the economy, where u. S. Employers created 250,000 jobs last month, much more than expected. It i the latest report pointing to strength in the economy. And as Steve Liesman tells us, its the economy thats playing an Important Role in the stock reporter some stock market surges take flight on the hot air of just hopes and dreams. But this one seems to have some solid Economic Data keeping it afloat. We got more proof of that today with an adp report suggesting 250,000 jobs created in the private sector in december. That was far more than the consensus, and far more than economists expect for tomorrows jobs report from the government. Adp adds to a Running Series of economic surprises thats seen Goldman Sachs economic surprise index surge to new levels. The street keeps underestimating the strength of this economy. All that adds up to Overall Economic growth that for three straight quarters looks to be running well ahead of potential of just around 2 . The second and third quarters in fact offered the first consecutive quarters of growth since 2014. Estimates are still healthy for a 2. 7 growth rate. There are definitely reaso for caution. The stock market has high hopes for the effect of tax cuts. Those tax cuts better deliver to justify recent market gains. In addition, the Federal Reserve is raising rates as many as three times this year, in part to slow the economy. But for now, better growth and bigger corporate profits are providing real buoyancy for the stock market. For nightl it seems like nothing, nothing, four days into this new year, can slow the raging bull market. One bear says the conditions are ripe for a potential correction over the next couple of months. But a market bull says theres still plenty of room to run. Tonight were bringing them together, oh, what a fun food fight will be. Our bull is the president of asset management. And the president of james advantage funds. Barry is our bear. All right. I think, barry, the burden should be on you to make the bear case here. You think we can have a 15 or more correction in either the first or the second quarter. Give me the three reasons why and the one reason, the one thing i should do about it. Okay. The three reasons. Number one, the Federal Reserve is not turning on the juice. Theyve turned it off. They are doing quantitative tightening. 93 of the rally was associated with quantitative easing. If you have quantitative could b something. A necessa precondition is extended valuations. Price to sales on the s p are the highest theyve ever been. P e ratios are not as high as they were in the late 90s but they are back where they were in 1987. In addition we have the Federal Reserve raising rates, not at the pace we saw in 87. But 1987, bob was talking about no recession, i agree with that, but half the time, half the time you get these 15 downturns when there is no recession in sight. So it can happen. So youve got some pieces of the puzzle in place that are necessary conditions for a pullback. Mean there will be one. We would say lower your equities, especially in the ecommerce area. Theres a mania in there, very similar to the last six bubbles that weve studied. We would say that would be the area that would be the one that would be the most dangerous. Theres a lot in there, phil, pick apart. But you think think there is more room to fly. I do. When you look at the composite of whats going on, its pretty powerful. Expensive stocks, theyre not cheap, but when you infuse a tax cut, thats going to push your p e higher and justify the higher price. I dont disagree the federal resee is getting more restive. But look at where Interest Rates are. Companies are earning more than the cost of their debt. Until that changes, until rates go higher, its not effective. So cheap debt, a tax cut, and then the economy is doing pretty well. Couple that with global expansion. So when you think about u. S. Market, we have been the bellwether, the leader. Okay, maybe this is an opportunity to rotate a little bit, to diversify, emerging markets are going well, europe is much cheaper. I dont think its going to come to an end simply because of low Interest Rates, an expanding economy. And sue, you can k on the bu push back on the bear. You got it, well double te there are a lot of expectations built in here that the economy will do well and that profits will come in nicely and theres going to be an investment boom in this country. Of what some of those things dont come true, or if, for example, the market becomes dissatisfied with even good economic or Corporate News . Good point. And by the way, 15 corrections, those are relatively healthy, theyre not a bad thing, its like a brush fire, you clean up the brush. In this case its hard to draw that scenario with the Interest Rates this low and earnings where they are. Youve given everybody a shot of steroids here to pump up earnings. Reduct especially in that small and midspace. In the first six months, you get a pass. Beyond that, okay, fair dialogue. But the first six months, youve got too much of a benefit coming from it. Barry, let me turn to the fed. I understa the fed is tightening. But to phils point, were coming from such low levels that the impact on that might be somewhat muted, even if they do become more aggressive in the face of slightly increasingfl thats absolutely true. And although the one thing, you kn, this is kind of surprising, when you look at tax cuts, i just wanted to address that, historically, from kennedy through gw bush, after the tax cut, one year later, stocks dont do very much, because it was all built in ahead of time. Were just seeing the effects today of people being able to digest the tax cuts that came out of at christmastime. Its only natural that theyre opening up their presents and stock prices are rising. In terms of the low Interest Rates, yes, 1987, it grows very rapidly, it went very high. Were not anywhere near that. I would agree that that is not the precursor, but quantitative tightening, that backdrop that will eat away at some of that confidence. Gentlemen, you were very nice to one another, you can come we turn to washington now where president tru wants to open nearly all waters to offshore drilling. The proposal lifts a ban imposed by president obama. It gives the Energy Industry access to drilling rights in most parts of the pacific, near california, and in the atlantic, near maine and the eastern gulf of mexico. Interior secretary ryan zinke said the country is embarking on a new path for Energy Dominance in america. A Seismic Shift could be coming to the relatively new Legal Marijuana industry. Attorney gener Jeff Sessions today reversed a number of obama era guidelines that discouraged the federal government from interfering with state legalized marijuana. And it comes just days after weed went legal in california. Aditi roy is i reporter days after Cannabis Companies ushered in the legalization of Recreational Marijuana in california with fanfare, a blow from the federal government. Attorney gener Jeff Sessions gave u. S. Attorneys the green light to aggressively enforce federal laws against marijuana, even in states where it is legal. Reaction was swift. Democratic leader nancy pelosi saying the decision, quote, bulldozes over the will of the American People and insults the democratic process under which majorities of voters in california and in states across the nation supported decriminalizn at th ballot box. Cannabis entrepreneurs are also weighing in, one telling me it could be devastating for business and would energize the black ma. Others are saying the industry would move to defcon 5 because of this. And the Vice President of business daily says businesses could be in for a bumpy ride. But some businesses remain bullish. The ceo of another cannabis company, baker, says, we remain optimistic about the state of the industry. And the executive Vice President at aurora, a Canadian Cannabis company, tells me the effect will be a positive for large canadian producers like aurora, because it will drive u. S. Investment and investors north of the border to publicly listed canadian companies. It remains unclear how the federal law will be enforced and whether medical Marijuana Companies could be targeted as well. Analysts had predicted that californias Recreational Marijuana market will be worth 6 billion by 2021. Or nightly business r still ahead, are computers and smartphones worldwide at risk of being hacked because of a flaw in . The securities and Exchange Commission has for investors. The chairman, jay clayton, urges extreme caution on cryptocurrenbitcoin. He says regulators may not be able to return lost investments to investors. And Merrill Lynch is banning clients from investing in bitcoin. According to the wall street journal, the banks Financial Advisers cannot pitch investments related to the cryptocurren and they cannot execute client requests to trade Grayscale Investment trust which is traded over the counter as opposed to a formal venue like the new york stock exchange. The bank has concerns about the suitability of that product. The latest move expands an existing policy barring access to newly launched Bitcoin Futures contracts. We told you last night about a reported flaw in intels chips. Tonight theres a big concern among businesses and consumers that a vast number of consumers and smartpho to hacking. Shares of the Worlds Largest chip maker fell again in trading today by 2 on an up day. Josh lipton has the details. Reporter Tech Companies are. Microsoft, amazon, and google are scrambling to push out Software Fixes to two security vulnerabilitie that could impact millions of computers all over the world. The bugs, called specker a ersp meltdown, could make devices vulnerable to hackers. Intels ceo told cnbc its not just intel, that many other tech manufacturers and their devices are at risk too. I cant tell you exactly on the other guys, on the other products, exactly which ones are affected. But definitely most of the horn question modern High Performance processors that you see in leading edge products, phones, pcs, everything, are going to have some impact. Reporter but rival amd seemed to push back on that point, saying in statement, due to differences in amds architecture, we believe there is a near zero risk to amd processors at th time. In response, investors have sent amd stocks surging higher. On the other hand, intel has been under pressure. Importantly, the intel ceo said there is no evidence that any hacker had actually taken advantage of this vulnerability. Its a risk that, as far as we know, no one has exploited. He says theres already a fix to the problem. Intel does not expect any material Financial Impact from the issue. Tech giants are moving quickly, updating their Cloud Services and products, to protect businesses and consumers. For example, microsoft has already updated its internet expl browser. Google has updated its public cloud service. Apple has yet to comment on the issue. For nightly b m josh lipton in san francisco. Macys is cutting thousands of jobs. Thats where we begin tonights market focus. The retailer said it would eliminate about 5,000 positions this year as it shutters more stores to streamline operations and cut its costs. The announcement comes after macys reported a 1 rise in holiday sales and said it was narrowing its full year sales outlook. But macys also raised earnings expectations. Nonetheless, shares fell 3 to 24. 49. Jcpenney said Strong Demand for jewelry and makeup helped the Department Store chain see positive samestore sas in the latest quarter. The companys ecommerce business also picked up steam. And jcpenney reaffirmed its fiscal 2017 outlook. Company shares were off a penny to 3. 69. And sears is planning to put more of its struggling stores on the chopping block. The retailer said more than 100 sears and kmart Stores Across the country will close their doors by april. Sears shares closed down 5 to 3. 58. And sticking with retail, Walgreens Boots Alliance helped that chain grow overall revenue and samestore sales even as the companys business underperformed. The results were above street expectations. Walgreens said it was hiking the lower end of its Earnings Guidance for 2018 and it expects to close its 4. 5 billion acquisition of 2,000 Rite Aid Stores this spring. Walgreen shares fell 5 to 71. 60. Cvs says it expects a 1 billion gain as a result of the new tax law. The pharmacy and retail chain said operating profit will likely rise between 1 and 4 this year. Shares climbed more than 2 on the session to 75. 13. Costco said samestore sales by demand in the u. S. Andmber, abroad. Th Worlds Largest wholesale club retailer also said its ecommerce busines perform well. Shares initially rose on the news but then they fell fractionally to finish the regular session at 189. 10. Many industries are still trying to fi the full impact of the recently passed tax bill. But there is one sector that most agree will likely be a big beneficiary, and that is manufactur reporter so far, manufacturer have been largely upbeat about the tax overhaul and for good reason. One model estimates manufacturers wil see the biggest tax savings. More than 260 billion from 2018 through 2027. Not only will many likely benefit from a lower corporate rate, but two big changes could be game changing. The shift to a territorial system and the adoption of full expensing. Nearly all of americas trade have territorial systems. Experts say implementing a similar model here in the u. S. Will help manufacturers better compete against foreign rivals. And the expectation is at least some of the money will be reinvested stateside. Shifting to a territorial system will in fact allo

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