Campaign trail. What the numbers are telling us about voters less than seven weeks out. Plus, the republican nominee for governor in North Carolina vows to continue his campaign after new bombshell reporting. Georges top Election Official is calling out the State Election Board over changes that could cause chaos as the 11th Hour gets underway on this Thursday Night. Good evening. Once again, i am Stephanie Ruhle live from Los Angeles and we are now 47 days away from election day. This evening, we are going to talk about polls, so lets remember, polls are not predictive and they are also not perfect. They are far from perfect but they are a snapshot of where things stand in the current moment and they can show us where the trends are moving. Today, we got a wave of new polls both nationally and in the key Battleground States for the whole thing is decided and they showed that while Vice President harris and democrats are in the strongest position they have been in all year, this race is still incredibly close. In fact, nearly all the results from these polls are within the margin of error. It does appear that last Weeks Debate help the Vice President but not enough to break away from trump. New polls focus on the crucial state of pennsylvania, where it really matters, so that the race is still extremely close there. Tonight, the Vice President was in detroit, michigan for a live Stream Town Hall event with opera. The event saw the whole lock like an episode of her talkshow. The two talked with voters about the border, Reproductive Rights and Harris Plan for the economy and that is where she snuck in a reference to last Weeks Debate. Part of my plan is to give startups Small Businesses a 50,000 Tax Deduction to start up the Small Business. Right now, it is 5000. Nobody can start a Small Business with 5000. Thats a teeny tiny business. The concept of a business, right . A concept of a business. Meanwhile trump was in Washington Tonight speaking at a Fighting Antisemitism Event at a summit of the Israeli American counsel. In both Events Trump said if he loses in november, jewish voters will have a lot to do with it and in an absolutely shocking story tonight, i got off the plane and my phone blow up with this one and i still cant believe it, about a man Donald Trump once called better than Martin Luther King. Cnn is reporting that current North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark robinson who is now running to be governor in that state once referred to himself as a black Nazi And Export support for bringing back slavery. Do you know where he made these statements . On a Pornography Website about 10 years ago. Robinson denies the report and has found to stay in the race. Reporter tonight, republican candidate Mark Robinson vowing to stay in the race for governor in North Carolina, vehemently denying an explosive new report showing dozens of his disturbing comments online. They want to focus on salacious tabloid lies. We are not going to let them do that. We are staying in this race. Reporter the current Lieutenant Governor facing a swirl of speculation about the fate of his campaign after Cnn Today published what it called a series of inflammatory comments on a Pornography Websites Message Board more than a decade ago before robinson began his political career. Nbc news has not verified the authenticity of the post. Cnn says they include robinson referring to himself as a black nazi and expressing support for reinstating slavery, Writing Slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish they would bring it back. I would certainly buy a few. Cnn also reporting robinson, who publicly supports a six Week Ban on abortion with exceptions wrote , he did not care if a celebrity got abortion. Writing quote, i dont care. I just want to see the sex tape. Tonight robinson blasting this is tabloid trash. Let me reassure you the things you will see in that story, those are not the words of Mark Robinson. You know my words. You know my character and you know that i have been completely transparent in this race and before. Reporter Note Stranger to polarizing comments, robinson has come under scrutiny in the past for calling the holocaust hogwash, which he later said was a poorly worded remark that was not antisemitic. I plan on being the first black governor of North Carolina. Reporter is a social conservative who has been endorsed by former president trump. This is Martin Luther King on steroids. Reporter North Carolina, a Battleground State of the president ial race, but a tough one for democrats who have not won it since 2008. The deadline for robinson to drop out of the race is midnight tonight. Im going to just take a guess. Hes going to stay. Now lets bring in our leadoff panel. Larry is here because we are talking polling. Director at the center for politics, Uva Professor and president ial historian, evan [ inaudible ] joins us in mckay. I think larry is frozen, so were going to wait a second. Evan, what was your take here . I dont want to step in for larry when it comes to polls. When hes in frozen is going to be amazing. I will say this. You mentioned at the top of the show that polls are snapshot, we should not take a prediction from them but you know, from my perspective like a narrative perspective, all these polls that are coming out, you would rather be harassed than trump, looking at these polls, and that is good for her, obviously. We dont know what it means in the long Run But Talk is of this debate being a huge Game Changer for the election boosting Harris Momentum even further and pushed her away from trump a little bit. It just speaks to all the good news she has had since she found herself with this nomination after president biden dropped out. It has really been a success for her in these polls help to solidify the fact that she is doing so well in this weird environment that she has found herself in. Okay, but then here is what stuck out to me, mckay. One poll found that voters do think harris performed better in the debate but in the postdebate polling, it has not really moved the needle, so what does that say about voters right now . How lockedin are they . Could there really be a lot of undecided voters left if the whole Bunch Watch that debate and still it didnt really move . There was a clear, decisive winner. Right. I think there is a difference for a lot of voters between acknowledging that one candidate performed better than another and thinking that they would rather that person be president. I do think, though, that to evans point, when you look at these polls, you have to look at where theyre going directionally, and directionally speaking, harris is creeping up. She is not creeping up in the polls far enough that shes getting outside the margin of error. She is not running away with it. I think we might be past the era of president ial politics for either candidate can never have a 60 landslide or win 48 states. I think we are an incredibly polarized country. No candidate is ever going to win by more than a few points. I will so, what i found most interesting is not only the polls that are showing her creeping up in these various states but actually polls that ask voters who they think will win. Washington post had a good piece about this kind of breaking down this question of which candidate do you think is going to win, and harris and also in almost every poll wins thereby a much larger margin, 10, 11, 12 points. Most people seem to think harris is going to win and if you look back at elections over the past 60 years, that is actually more predictive question than asking people who they want to win, who they want to vote for. The reason being there are a bunch of theories about this, but one of the theories is that basically when voters are answering that question theyre not just taking into account their own preferences. Theyre taking into account the people they know in their circles, their neighbors, their families. They become kind of many anthropologists and that has proven to be fairly predictive, so if you want to look for good news for harris, the fact that significant majorities outside of the margin of error think that shes going to win, that does bode well for her campaign. That is interesting. Larry, unfortunately for you, you were frozen. You are our Polling Expert but i had to ask these two guys and they really gave great responses so the bar just got a whole lot higher. What were your big takeaways . Well, i could not hear what they said for the most part. Sorry i was frozen, but i was so shocked by the report you gave about Mark Robinson i just couldnt move, and i hope thats okay. As far as polling is concerned, i think people need to remember at all times that all Polling Today can do with all of its flaws and inaccuracies is to tell you that Candidate A is well ahead or that Candidate B is well ahead or that it is so close you really cant tell which candidate is ahead, or the polls are not predictive. I go with the third option certainly in this case. Having said that, which candidate has moved up and which candidate has moved down . Obviously, harris has moved up in Donald Trump has moved down. The problem is, the national vote does not matter at all and we have 43 states sitting there watching the seven states that will impose a new president on the rest of us for the next four years in those states happened to be with only a couple of exceptions, so close that they are literally tied, or certainly within the margin of error and by the way, good research suggests that the margin of error is actually about double what the pollsters actually list because there are so many sources of error that cannot be quantified, so we will be much better off if we all realize that polls are not votes and that we really should not pay that much attention to them and that those who are in politics who care about the results should just be working and volunteering and giving money. How about that. Ill take that. Thats a good education for all of us out there. Evan, democrats are in the best but theyve been in all year and at the same time, this thing is razor thin. Which of those points matters more . That is the 64,000, 64 Million however big of a donation you want to make, question of this election. This all comes down to what is going to happen at The End of this race because we have a candidate in Donald Trump who we have seen unite the republican party in a way that he had not done before. A lot of excitement for him when you go out and see people who really like him a lot then you see this idea of harris who comes in late in the game but just pumps all this enthusiasm into the democratic side and those two things are what are competing together right now and it may come down to the really nittygritty stuff like Ground Game operations. We did some stories about that just the other day, talking about Ground Game operations. This is a got out fight to The End and whoever has the most best stuff i guess, that is how its going to work out, i think. The most best stuff. Thats good writing right there. Larry, a political columnist writes that there are three states of matter, just three states. Georgia, North Carolina, and pennsylvania. Do you agree, and do you think this race can be won without pennsylvania . Number one, i do not agree in number two, i believe that it can be won under certain circumstances, without pennsylvania. We just said 43 states are in this thing. There are only seven and i respect jonathan martin. He is an old friend, its great what he wrote and i see his point but dont you think it would make more sense if we did not narrow down the mere seven states that we have that are truly competitive to three . Because i can see other pathways really for either candidate to win 270 electoral votes. I think the candidates can see that, too other strategists can see that so pennsylvania is important in North Carolina is important in georgia is important, but so are wisconsin and michigan in nevada and arizona, and so we look at different combinations of these states and lets keep doing that. Lets keep the door open to new events and new calculations. All right. At the risk of larry going frozen again, lets talk about Mark Robinson. North Carolina Lieutenant governor in this new cnn report. He is denying that he called Himself A Black Nazi on a Pornography Website and is vowing to stay in this race. Here is my question. There is all this pressure. Should he step down, should he step aside . Lets get real. With Donald Trump as the leader of the republican party, the person who sets the bar, do you see any scenario where a republican will step down for any reason . I mean, this is a key point. When you have the leader of your party who has said outrageous, offensive, racist, xenophobic, antisemitic things, who lies constantly, who has been caught in affairs, and all kind of unseemly, unsavory personal behavior, and who has basically weathered it at least in terms of his standing in the republican party , you dont set any kind of Incentive Structure that would cause somebody like Mark Robinson to say well, i dont think i can survive this. Im going to drop out. It is possible that the party in the state could do what the democratic party essentially did to Joe Biden, which is, you know, pressure mounts, donors pull out. The problem is the deadline is so soon, like you noted, that it is probably theres probably not enough time. Come on, who are the republicans in the party that are going to put the pressure on . Marjorie Taylor Greene . No, this is the interesting thing. The interesting thing is that in the North Carolina state republican party, the establishment hates the sky, like republican operatives are constantly leaking against him. The rest of the elected republicans in the state dont like him. The problem is that he is not beholden to them at all. He is following the Trump Path where he does not need the republican establishment in North Carolina to continue to run his campaign. He fancies himself as anti establishment outside a populist. That is how he has positioned himself. There is not a lot of leverage the State Party has to get him off the ticket but to your point, they also probably will not even try very hard because you know, you have the Donald Trump precedent right there. I will say though, im not really sure that Mark Robinson should bank on being able to do the Teflon Don the thing that trump has pulled off because weve seen this over and over again. A lot of republican politicians seem to think that they can do what trump has done, that they can weather the storms and stick around, that the laws of political gravity dont apply to them and then they find out that they still do so im not sure he should be making that calculation himself. Yeah, ron desantis, you know what he learned . Only trump can trump. Before we go, if robinson does stay on the ballot, how do we see the Governors Race and could it have an impact on the president ial race in North Carolina . Absolutely. I actually just got back from North Carolina midday. The people i talked to yesterday, and that was before this new story broke, were unanimous in saying that robinson was going to lose and most of them said hes going to lose badly. This is before this story. Unless you believe that there is something in that story that makes him more salable, that makes him more attractive as a candidate for governor, i think you can pretty much count on the democratic candidate Josh Stein winning the race. The question is whether he brings down Donald Trump in the state that arguably trump either has to win or nearly has to win in order to get to 270. I think he is going to hurt trump. He is hurting trump because rarely but occasionally, there is something called reverse coattails. It is when a candidate lower down on the ballot and the governor is right below president , become so radioactive that it affects candidates below the radioactive candidate on the ballot but it also affects a Candidate Above. That Candidate Also suffers from Radiation Poisoning to a certain degree. I think we have kind of reached it here, and there are a number of similarities as the others have pointed out, between robinsons problems and trumps problems, so they linked together and could discourage some republican voters from casting a ballot. They just dont want to show up, they dont want to get involved in it. They are turned off by what they have read. At least, the parts they believe, and so the answer is yes, at least in my view. Larry, when youre talking radioactive, i get that it is rare but when you have black nazi pornography all in this one mans story, that could definitely be radioactive. Gentlemen, thank you all for starting us off this evening. When we return, shares of Donald Trumps Media Stock fell to a new low on the same day Donald Trump is finally able to sell. What the former president still stands to make, a lot of money for doing absolutely nothing in a company that also does basically nothing. When we return, some voters still want to know more about Kamala Harris after last Weeks Debate. Were going to talk about these elusive undecided voters, who they are, where they live and what these candidates need to do to win them over. The 11th Hour just getting underway on a hot Thursday Night in l. A. A hot Thursday Night in l. A. Dangerous ladders. Gutter muck. Yuck. No wonder you hate cleaning your gutters. Good thing theres leaffilter. Our patented Filter Technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever. Guaranteed. Call 833 Leaffilter to get started. And get the permanent Gutter Solution that ends clogs for good. They took the time to answer all of our questions. They really put us at ease. End clogged gutters for goo