Pets. Can you even remember a time when something like that would have been disqualifying . Because i cant anymore republicans now elected trump three times. Democrats lost to him half the time. This election is still inexplicably close. Unfortunately, some americans watched that and thought, i dont like how kamala laughed when he called immigrants dog eaters. That wasnt very president ial. Wow. That sums it up. Welcome to Morning Joe. It is monday, september 23rd. With us, we have the host of Way Too Early, white House Bureau Chief at politico, jonathan lemire. Nbc news national Affairs Analyst and a partner in chief political columnist at puck, John Heilemann. Good to have you with us this morning. We have six weeks to go until Election Day. Theres new Nbc News polling out showing a major shift in the 2024 race. In the latest survey, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former president Donald Trump by five points, 49 to 44 , among registered voters nationwide. Although, that result is within the margin of error, it marks a change from the previous Nbc News poll conducted back in july, where Trump Led president Joe Biden by two points. Since then, harris has nearly doubled bidens lead over trump with Women Voters, going from 11 points to 21 points. Harris Favorability Rating has also soared since july, with 48 of voters now saying they view her positively compared to 32 in the last poll. Trumps favorability has essentially stayed the same since july with 40 viewing him positively now. Despite being the sitting Vice President , harris leads trump by nine points when voters were asked, which candidate better represents change . And when asked which candidate they trust more to handle top issues, trump still leads in most areas, though by smaller margins than in a january poll. Voters trust trump by 21 points on immigration, by 9 points on the economy, and by 6 points on handling crime. Harris, meanwhile, is trusted more to handle Abortion Rights by 21 points after biden led by 12 in january. Joining us now, Nbc News senior Political Editor mark murray. Mark, take us through this. These polls are consistent with a lot of other polls that have shown big momentum in Kamala Harris direction. Of course, there are always outliers. In 2012, we had gallup throughout the race saying that romney was going to beat obama by 11 points. This year, we have The New York Times Siena Poll, which is an outlier. This Nbc Poll goes with, look, every other poll that shows thE Wind at harris back. Why is that . Joe, you know, our poll ended up showing this is a transformed race. The last time we were in The Field was back in july. Of course, so much has happened. Democrats have a new candidate at the top of the ticket. Youve had two president ial conventions, two Vice President ial selections, a president ial debate just a couple of weeks ago. Our poll shows that this is a changed race. The two things can be true. This can be a changed race where the democrats now have a little bit of wind at their backs, but it also can be very, very close. Joe, one of the things when you have Kamala Harris more popular than Donald Trump, you end up having democrats leading on our ballot. You end up having democrats with a slight lead in congressional ballot. That looks a whole lot like October Of 2020 when Joe Biden was running against Donald Trump, the very end of that race according to our poll. As we all know, that turned out to be a very close race. Democrats should feel very good about this poll and a lot of others that are consistent with the findings. Also, i think we should also get ready for another, very close election. Mark, lets dig into some of these numbers here. I was struck by this. Harris favorability jumped 16 points since july, which is the largest increase for any politician in Nbc News polling since george w. Bush got a surge after 9 11. That speaks how the voters are viewing her differently now. Talk about that. Also, drill deep for us about certain key Voting Blocks. How is she fairing in the groups that many people think will decide this election . Women, voters of color, and the young voters. Yeah. Jonathan, you know, you mentioned our poll ends up showing that 16point Rise in her favorability. Thats larger thats the largest since george w. Bush after 9 11. When were talking about a candidate from a major party in a president ial contest, weve never had numbers like that in our 35year history of our Nbc News poll. So, again, that just shows you how she is transformed, too, since july. Of course, her ratings since her Vice Presidency pretty much mirrored what we ended up seeing from President Biden. But her being at the top of the ticket, she is now in a different place, not only than biden was in, but also where Donald Trump is in popularity. Jonathan, when we look at the key Voting Blocks who have moved in this, it is black voters. It is women. Also, importantly, young voters, too. Harris is doing better with those groups than Joe Biden was doing in july, and thats reflected in our overall ballot score. Mark, its John Heilemann here. We talk a lot about Harris Movement here. Obviously, the race transformed mostly in terms of her versus Joe Biden. Talk a little about Joe Biden and whether what we see in these numbers is, again, kind of consistent, as joe said, with what the other polling, which is that trump seems to kind of had if you look at it, the big takeaway is we know where Donald Trump stand with the electorate. He may have kind of Hit A Ceiling across a lot of different vectors here. Just talk about that. You know, john, what our poll has shown over the course of the last two years is how Donald Trumps Ballot Number really hasnt changed. Its been in this 45, 46, 47 range. Every Track Weve done going back to 2023. What has moved has been, first, Joe Bidens numbers, and now we end up having Kamala Harris. But, john, it is also important to note, again, with all the kind of ups and downs, the changes in our poll, this remains a margin of error contest. But we have seen time and time again where Donald Trump, you know, that 46, 47 figure, that matched his Popular Vote in 2016. It matched his Popular Vote in 2020. It hasnt budged much. It is important to remember in 2016, 46 , 47 became a winning number, particularly in key Battleground States, because of the size of the Thirdparty Vote. This time around, this is looking a whole lot more like 2020 vote, where the Thirdparty Vote is smaller. In key states, you might have to get 50 to be able to win. All right. Nbc news senior Political Editor, mark murray, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. Fascinating numbers. John heilemann, mark used the word transformed race, and it certainly is a transformed race. If you, again, look at every poll, almost every poll thats out there except, say, for The New York Times Siena Poll, which, again, is very consistent with where gallup was in 2012, throughout the entire campaign, saying that Mitt Romney was going to be the next president of the united states. So you look at the move of all of these polls, and it is transformed. This Nbc Poll shows us he is doing extremely well. Yet, if you talk to both campaigns, they will still tell you this race is, in fact, a tie. Are you comfortable saying, okay, it may be a tie, but it is a tie that is definitely leaning Harris Way . I think id put it this way, joe, if you looked at all these numbers and talked to the campaigns, i think you would hear that it is a margin of Error Race. Thats slightly different than a tied race. Yeah. You know, if you played out scenarios, theres harris at this point, i would think most people would agree, it was a little over 50 of winning the race. Trump is a little under 50 . Its an any given Sunday Kind of situation where, you know, no one at this point is comfortable. This is also a national poll, right . The campaigns are not paying attention to polling like this anymore. They are looking at Battleground State polling. Theyre looking at those numbers. I think they all think that all the Battle Ground states are within the margin of error. I think they would also say, and, jonathan, you probably hear this in your reporting, too, which is, what the Harris Campaign would say precisely is, we know this is going to be really close, but we would rather play our hand over these next six weeks than their hand, in terms of the money we have, the resources we have on the ground, and the Candidate Quality we have. We would rather it be us than them, but we understand it is going to be really tight. Yeah, exactly it. They feel pretty good about where they are. Its a margin of Error Race. Were hearing from the Harris Team using the Word Underdog a lot in the fundraising appeals, trying to motivate democrats. We need you to keep fundraising, volunteering, dont be overconfident. They feel good about her multiple paths to victory, which is something President Biden when he was atop the ticket did not have. He only had the wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. Harris can play in the sunbelt. They feel much better about North Carolina now, particularly because of the implosion of the republican gubernatorial candidate there, which well get to later this morning. One other thing that is striking, though, is how steady Donald Trumps support has been this year. He certainly hit his ceiling, but he hasnt really fallen any. He is more popular this time around than he was in 2016 or 2020, which is remarkable when you think about it, joe and mika, considering all that he has done in the last eight years. Yeah. But thats where we are right now. Both these candidates are about the same place. Trend lines, though, even though its a margin of Error Race, Trend Lines do favor harris. Thats why her team feels better about where she is heading into these six weeks. But, man, it is going to be close. Well, the Trend Lines and just about every poll, except for one or two outliers, certainly break her way. I want to ask you all, based on your reporting, if youre hearing what im hearing. First of all, lets break down the swing states. John heilemann, ill start with you. This is what im hearing right now from the campaigns. Michigan, the Harris Campaign feels good about michigan, wisconsin, North Carolina, and nevada. They know North Carolina and nevada are still close, but theyre feeling good about those states. Pennsylvania and georgia, tossup. Its an absolute tossup. Neither side is going to tell you theyre going to win or lose those. Right now, the Harris Campaign would say they have a lot of work to be done in arizona. The Trump Campaign feeling good about arizona. What are you hearing, john . I think thats basically right, joe. Theres a all of those are basically what i hear. I would also the few amendments i would make, kind of addons to those. Michigan, of the three blue Wall States, is where the Harris Campaign feels most confident. Michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, in descending order. It is now the oldest, most aging and whitest of the three date states, so they worry about the fact the numbers have given her they look to the numbers and feel strong, but theres a lot about wisconsin that makes people, of the three blue Wall States, that seems a little out of whack. Pennsylvania, everyone assumes, will be crazy close, and we wont know the answer until that week after Election Day probably. And theyre not feeling super confident about georgia. I dont know if you mentioned that one. North carolina, obviously, the Mark Robinson Thing is breaking in a way they like. I think arizona, because of that Abortion Initiative thats on the ballot, though theyre not in the strongest position and they do have work to do there, they think they can do the work there because Abortion Initiative opens up a pathway that could make arizona good for very close and kind of tilting back toward Harris Direction again. My reporting largely lines up with that. Few additional notes. Harris team feels best about michigan, which is striking. Six months ago, we thought it was the blue Wall State slipping away because of the war in gaza and how that might affect the muslim and arabamerican population there. Thats not been the case. They feel good about michigan. Wisconsin, to johns point, they know its close but they feel theyre up a bit. Pennsylvania, by far, is the state that keeps democrats up at night. They feel like this is going to be the hardest of those states to win. It is not impossible, but it is difficult for her to get a path to 270 without pennsylvania. They worry about some of those older white voters there. Expect to see President Biden camp out in pennsylvania in the next couple of weeks, trying to help her get across the finish line. Theyre also going to need big turnouts in pittsburgh, philadelphia, and the suburbs. North carolina, as noted, theyre feeling better about. Georgia they think is more or less a tie. Maybe theyre down a little, but they recognize its going to be harder this time around than in 2020. They feel like 2020 got to the democratic Calm A little ahead of schedule for georgia. The last two, id say this. Arizona is the one i think democrats are actually a little disappointed by. They thought because of that abortion measure, theyd be theyd have more of a shot there. Theyre not ruling it out by any means, but that is the one that is the hardest, it looks like, for them. Nevada, the Polling Isnt great for democrats, but there is this belief that, at The End of the day, nevada always looks hard for democrats. At The End, it snaps into place by a point or two. Theres some real hope that that could happen again. One more thing. The path to 270 that President Biden got and is going to have to get was pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, and then that one vote out of nebraska, the congressional race in omaha, and were seeing the republicans just six weeks out trying yet again to change the law there so nebraska could be winnertakeall, Depriving Democrats of the one vote. There is a sense they likely wont be successful, but that is something to keep an eye on, too. Of the many challenges for the Harris Campaign, there are two big, False Narratives about Vice President Kamala Harris being pushed by the anti antitrump universe. Some in the mainstream media. One is Donald Trump might be bad, but harris wont tell The American people where she stands on the issues. The other is the both sideism when it comes to violent rhetoric. Well break down both. Well start with the first false narrative. The but the issues crowd. Take a look at how Msnbc Host of The 11th Hour, Stephanie Ruhle picked that argument apart On Friday night. Its not too much to ask kamala, say, are you for Palestinian State if hamas is going to run that state . Okay. Yes or no . Lets say you dont like her answer. Are you going to vote for Donald Trump . No, im not. I just said Kamala Harris is not running for perfect. Shes running against trump. We have two choices. So there are some things you might not know her answer to. In 2024, unlike 2016 for a lot of The American people, we know exactly what trump will do, who he is, and the kind of threat he is to democracy. I dont know it is unclear to me [ applause ] how there can be the problem a lot of people have with kamala is we dont know her answer to anything. Okay . But you know his answer to everything. And thats why i would never vote for him, and people shouldnt vote for him. But people also expect to have some idea of what the program is of the person youre supposed to vote for. Youre just not supposed to say, well, you have to vote for y because x is this, that, and the other. Lets find out a little bit more. I dont think it is a lot to ask her to sit down for a real interview as opposed to a Puff Piece in which she describes, like [ applause ] her feelings of growing up in oakland. I would say to that, when you move to nirvana, give me your real estate Brokers Number, and ill be your nextdoor neighbor. We dont live that. That really is. I like brett. Like Bill Maher said, he is a fan of what he reads, but i dont know what universe he lives in. He actually said, we dont know her answer to anything. Thats not true. Its just false. He obviously hasnt been watching the campaign. Again, i know youre going to get into this, but compare what she said and, again, we can go through the issues with Donald Trump. Yeah. Whether its the rambling answer on Child Care, whether it was a nonsensical answer during the debate. By the way, she wants to debate again. Donald trump doesnt. Because he doesnt talk about the issues. He Cant Talk about the issues. Again, theres False Equivalency from the anti antitrump crowd, and also from the mainstream media. Served as a senator, as a prosecutor, as an Attorney General, and the Vice President. She also has a record. She has a record. Something you can compare to trump. Last week, Los Angeles Bureau Chief wrote a piece, mocking harris for telling her Life Story in an interview with a local Tv Station in philadelphia. In response to a question about bringing down prices and making life more affordable for people, he criticized harris for talking about how she was a middleclass kid who grew up in a community of construction workers, nurses and teachers, who were very proud of their lawn. And how her mother saved to buy her familys First House. And paid tribute to a neighbor who became a surrogate parent. She praised the beautiful character of The American people, and only then, after nearly two minutes, he writes, did ms. Harris outline her plan. But the Vice President has been outlining her plan for weeks. Here are some examples. When people work hard and have a dream of buying a home, we should give you the opportunity to be able to do that, which is why a part of my plan is for firsttime homeowners, buyers, to have a 25,000 down Payment Assistance to buy your first home. Because people just need [ applause ] to be able to get their foot in the door, then youll do the hard work. Part of my plan is to give startup Small Businesses a 50,000 Tax Deduction to Start Up a Small Business. Right now its 5,000. Nobody can start a Small Business with 5,000. Thats part of my plan. Because heres the thing, we know that we have a shortage of homes in housing. The cost of housing is too expensive for too many people. We know young families need support to raise their chi