Month. What the feds are now revealing about ryan routh, his weapon and his getaway car, and the letter he Left Behind in case he failed. That fast moving president ial campaign, 43 days out from the election it found two seemingly contradictory facts are both true, Donald Trump continues to be battered by challenging headlines and yet his race against Kamala Harris is still shaping up one of the tightest in history, new Sun Belt Polling from The New York Times Today Trump has gained a lead in arizona and remains ahead in georgia, two states that he lost in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a democrat since 2008, miss harris trails Donald Trump by a narrow margin. Our Weekend Poll shows harris up nationally by five. But more dramatically her favorable score is up 16 points since july, now surpassing trump. It comes as trump heads to pennsylvania later today amid Ground Game concerns, the Associated Press reports that dozens of republican officials, activists and operatives in michigan, North Carolina and other Battleground States say they have rarely or never witnessed the groups canvassers. Despite the fact that harris has agreed to a second debate the former president now says its too late even though there were debates in october in 2016 and 2020. Democrats posting billboard calling him a chicken near his stop in pennsylvania today. While democrats are feeling good about their messaging and momentum, none of those developments have produced anything approaching a seismic shift in the race that harris team has said from the start will be heartstopping close. Steve kornacki. Steward stephens. Author of it was all a lie, a book about republican party you should Donald Trump. Steve, we know nationally that Kamala Harris is leading, at least within the margin of error, but dig into the details of this poll, because thats where it gets interesting and the undercards. Chris, a couple interesting things here that goes into this advantage for harris, number one, the Gender Gap, a massive Gender Gap, here you see among men Donald Trump leading 5240, 12point lead for trump. Among women, look at the Margin Harris is racking up, 58 to 37. 21. A Gender Gap of 33 points. Again, thats like ten points higher than we saw in the 2020 and 2016 elections with both featured historically massive Gender Gaps. Steve, can i stop you here, when you have that big of a gap dont women generally vote in larger numbers in president ial elections than men do, that would indicate to me almost a Runaway Race is not what were seeing. Higher, were talking very close to 50 on both, so not, you know, its not like ten points out of whack one to another. Youre seeing a fivepoint, you can see it, you know, trying to go back to this first screen, go back to it. Fivepoint lead for harris. You do find a bigger margin for harris for women than trump has among men. A step further here, other groups here, among white voters, ninepoint. Black voters, 857 for Kamala Harris. Thats standard historically speaking among black voters. But a big change from where this race was when biden was the candidate. His support for black voters was falling somewhere in the 60s, well short of what democrats get. Trump among black voters had been and other polls do show this in the midteens, for a republican would be a historically pretty high share of the black votes. What democrats are seeing in this poll for harris, among core kons tunesies group, much more in line of what theyve depended on in the past and worried about when Joe Biden was the candidate. Is there any positive news from a Trump Standpoint . Democrats love where the race is going in the national race, if youre a trump partisan you might look at this, these two issues, border and immigration, and then Economy And Inflation, more than four in ten voters say Economy And Inflation are their top concern, trump with a Ninepoint Advantage over harris on who would do better on that. Border and immigration, 28point for trump. Trump with advantage on both of those. That keeps him in the game. Steve, always great to see you at the big board. Thank you so much. Adam, these new Battleground Polls from siena The New York Times is where this race will be decided. Three of the key battleground. Harris had a Fivepoint Lead before the debate now shes behind by five in arizona. Now, again, these were allen with the margin of error, if youre working on the Harris Campaign, any warning in here for you . I dont think so, i mean, i think that the Harris Campaign is paying incredibly close attention to the data, theyre looking at these polls, own polls theyre looking at and with all due to respect to the The New York Times, theyre transparent about their process, when you see big swings going plus five for harris to negative five for harris, toss in the averages and see how the averages come in. I think The Big Picture here is this an extremely close race, harris is in a much stronger position than democrats were over the summer, and, you know, its going come down to these states, she tends to be performing better in pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan, the socalled Blue Wall states of midwest than President Biden was you and a Poll Today showing her up six points in wisconsin. But the point is, if youre on the campaign you have your nose to the grindstone, youre doing everything you can to inform voters about her positions. Voters want to find out more about Kamala Harris and they find out more they shift in a positive direction. Polls go up and polls go down, shes clearly in a very strong position to win. Yes, steward, anyone in the campaign will tell you we believe this race is incredibly tight. Having said that, i think to adams point, according to the times poll, 15 of the electorate in arizona and georgia and North Carolina have been undecided. Do you buy that number first of all, this group of voters have leaned in miss harris and now lean slightly more to trump. Yeah, look, i have a contrary view on this, i think theres a distinct trend here when you put this all together, since the Convention And Debate harris has been going up and trump has been static or going down, thats a pretty obvious trend, i think this poll, does anybody think that harris has dropped ten points in arizona . What evidence do you have to back that up . Arizona and pennsylvania were pretty much the same in 20. I think this is very odd numbers. So, harris favorables are going up. Trump is stagnant or going down. With these undecided voters, to a degree they vote theyre going to break based on fave unfave. So, its the job for you is that Favorability Number the most important potentially in that poll . In our nbc poll, that is. Yeah, i think, favorability captures the race how are you feeling about these candidates. Weve been saying in 22, going to be decided by economy, whats extraordinary here, harris is beating trump on commander in chief. I mean, i can promise you if woke up anybody in the Trump Campaign two months ago that was going to happen they would have said thats insane. Shes developing these Trust Areas that are very important. And republicans traditionally lean toward that stronger candidate. So, for decades now, republicans have had an Issue Advantage and image advantage on strength, on Foreign Policy particularly thats now eroding and becoming a democratic advantage. Which we havent seen since back in the kennedy days. So, this is a huge thing thats happening out there if it continues and that will elect harris and its going to affect our politics for a long time if it continues. I want to bring in Dasha Burns in indiana, pennsylvania, where Donald Trump will hold a Rally Tonight after saying no more debates. I want to ask you about that, dasha, is the sense inside the campaign he doesnt need it, he doesnt want to risk it, what do we know about this . Reporter well, look, chris, youll remember basically immediately after that first debate between Trump And Harris he went into the Spin Room which surprised everybody, he said then that i dont think we need another debate, right, and now hes saying that again, hes saying its simply too late that date of october 23rd. What he said most recently to fox news. Well, ive already done two debates and were good. But to do a third one everybodys voting now and its very late to be doing a third debate, but once the election starts and it started its a very bad thing to be doing a debate in the middle of the votecounting, late into the election, so, i think it would be a very bad thing, i think it would be a bad thing for the country. So some important context here, chris, he did participate in an October Debate in both 2016 and 2020, in 2016 the last president ial debate was October 19th and in 2020 it was October 22nd and there have been October Debates in every president ial election going back to 1960, so this is nothing new, having a final debate even when early voting has started is not new. Heres what surprised me over the weekend, i was talking to voters at the Trump Rally in North Carolina and i asked them if they wanted to see a second debate, some said some Trump Rallygoers it would be good for the country and the voters to see Trump And Harris face off One More Time a little bit closer to the election, chris. Dasha burns, thank you for that. Adam, i mentioned the Ap Report in some places like michigan questions being raised about the strength of trumps Ground Game, is that part of the Moneyraising Disparity in august, that Harris Outraised him fourtimes, is it about they believe they dont need the kind of Turnout Operation that she does because hes a known quantity, what do you see going on there and how much of a difference could a Turnout Operation make. Turnout operations are very important when it comes to close races and this is going to be a close race, no good reason for trump to have a strong Turnout Operation, definitely a sign of weakness within his campaign, he raised a lot of money in a short period of time after he was convicted which goes to say what kind of things raise money on his side. His voters petered out. And then harris surged dramatically, theyre able to transfer money to other races. Shes in a very strong position moneywise. Not having a Ground Game for trump is a sign of weakness, he cant afford it or the Campaign Isnt being run well and deploying people on the ground. One thing he said in that clip you just played, people are already voting, people are voting by early voting. Getting them their mail ballots, then youre behind. Simply you dont want to have as a campaign. Not having a Ground Game. We should also note that most of the North Carolina poll that we mentioned for the times was done before the latest developments surrounding the republican Governor Candidate Mark robinson, we got four senior Staff Members quit. Do you see a situation where him staying in the race does have an impact on Donald Trump or maybe Something Else thats going on in North Carolina particularly with republican voters . Yeah, its going to have a big impact on the race. Republican Parties Embrace of Robinson Is his own staff is resigning. This is not a good thing. Strong gubernatorial candidates can have positive impact in races. Theyre the ones who have the best organizations, the ones who know the most people, people in the state are vested in voting for the governor. Its a much more strong connection than any president ial race. So, you know, they tried this in pennsylvania when they did this guy he was a disaster in 2022, this is just a replay. Look, i think harris is going to win North Carolina. You saw these polls, shes getting 85 of the African American vote, that aint going to happen, shes going to get north of 90 . So, yeah, its a mess and its just sort of reflective of this larger problem that republicans decided that character doesnt count. After all these decades where they said character is king. What happens when character doesnt happen you end up with Mark Robinson and Donald Trump. Thank you both. Much appreciated. Coming up in 90 seconds, diplomats are gathering here in New York for the u. N. General assembly, but the focus of their conversations is more than 5,000 miles away on the border between israel and lebanon, new explosions there have killed hundreds, can World Leaders do anything about it . A retired fourstar general and former Deputy Security Adviser will join us after a quick break. Us after a quick break. Tter. Especially when theyre egglands best. 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Idf and hezbollah are exchanging heavy fire. Lebanons Health Ministry said todays strikes killed 274 people and injured more than a 1,000. The israeli government is sending lebanese Residents Evacuation warnings directly to their phones. Hala gorani Is Reporting and ben rhodes. Hala prime Minister Netanyahu said he promised to change the Security Balance in north, whats happening, whats the latest . Reporter well, the lebanese people, chris, are very resilient, theyve weathered many crises, many wars, but ive spoken to some of my sources and indeed friends in that country and theyre very, very nervous. The israeli Prime Minister has issued a message directly to civilians telling them to evacuate. To not remain in areas where the israeli military believes hezbollah might have hid in weaponry, but israeli im sorry lebanese civilians are saying we dont know where some of these secret weapons are stored, theyre secret thats the whole point. You mentioned over 270 killed, thats a very high Death Toll, perhaps the highest daily Death Toll since the lebanese civil war, there are people who are picking up their kids from school, there are Traffic Jams in the south of lebanon where some of these bombardments are taking Place And Hezbollah is responding with rockets and projectiles of its own. Fired by hezbollah into the northern parts of israel. We spoke to a man who is picking his child from school, saying hes not taking any chances with fears that this might really escalate into an allout conflict between the two sides. Listen. Translator were here because of the phone calls. Theyre calling everyone and threatening everyone by phone. The situation is not reassuring. Reporter so, the question is going to be, how will hezbollah respond eventually they have a much more powerful arsenal of weapons, with missiles that could go much deeper into israel they havent used so far, if that happens, and that would really depend on whether iran, the groups patron, then we could start seeing a much deadlier conflict, chris. Hala, thank you for that. General, weve heard Israels Strategy described as escalating to deescalate, how do you see it . Military powers are very uncertain tool to communicate political objectives, it seems to me whats happening is the israelis have decided politically and from a military Point Of View theyre going to get their people, 70,000 refugees back into the border, the current situation is its not going to happen until theres a truce in gaza, which is not going to happen, and therefore were in the opening stages of a very bitter war. It wont occur until the idf calls up a quarter of A Million more troops, theyd have to go in on the ground, actually hezbollah back from the frontier and eliminate the rocket threat, this is a very complex and dangerous situation. The israelis just conducted a devastating, tactical strike on hezbollah, eliminating potentially 3,000 of their Rank And File leaders, the Exploding Pagers and walkietalkie. This war will be devastating for israel also. They didnt do well in 2006. This is going to be multiple orders of magnitude, worse if they go to allout conflict. Terrible as what theyre seeing today, its not in an vacuum, israel has shown more military might as of late. All of it sending a very powerful psychological message to israels enemies, but do you think it has an impact on hezbollah and irans calculations going forward . Well, it may well have an impact on iran, iran has enormous amount to lose, remember this is all backed up by 40,000someodd u. S. Forces with more on the way, this is principally Air And Navy power, we wont be involved, the u. S. in a Ground War in the Middle East. Hezbollah hasnt been in any way deterred, theyre in a state of confusion right now and panic after the israeli tactical devastating strike on them, but nothing strategically got changed by Israels Assassination of the hamas operatives in tehran, in the most insulting, provocative way, the subsequent killings of people in downtown beirut, so israels pushing this toward war, theyre capable of winning against hezbollah, make No Doubt about it, but this would be a War Involving Tens Of Thousands of casualties amo