Transcripts For MSNBC Andrea Mitchell Reports 20241002

Middle east very closely. The united states is committed to Israels Defense. We are watching developments, as i said, very carefully this morning. U. S. Officials tell Nbc News they expect this iranian response to involve more fire power. Israel is trying to push hezbollah forces north. The israeli defense Forces Spokesperson announced israel uncovered Hezbollah Tunnels in Southern Lebanon. One of the buildings that our troops raided, we found proof of this. This is a map that hezbollah planned to give its terrorists at the time of a widescale invasion of israel. It was to cover out a massacre in israels north. Joining me from jerusalem is nbcs Erin Mclaughlin. Also with is monica alba. Monica, what are you hearing from the White House . The State Department ordered all u. S. Government employees and their families to shelter in place and that this is supposed by in response to the killing of nasrallah on friday in a massive Air Strike by israel as well as previous fronts to hezbollah attacks, the pager attack, none of that had been retaliated against. Reporter thats exactly why the biden administration officials had been bracing for some kind of a Response And Retaliation from iran. There was a question about the timing. There was nothing that indicated in the last 24 hours that it was going to be happening necessarily immediately. But we knew iran could be positioned to move quickly, which it seems now it is poised to do so for this potential ballistic Missile Attack. There are a lot of questions about exactly what this will look like, whether it will be similar or a little different to what we saw take place in april. I can tell you that President Biden has been briefed and updated on all of the possibilities over the last couple of hours. We know that the secretary of defense, lloyd austin, has been in touch with his israeli counterparts on all of that as well. To lay out what we are expecting here and what could happen in the next few hours, if this is what we think the course will be, is this question of how many specific Ballistic Missile might be launched into israel. Last time in april, there was a number high number of projectiles, around 300 total. It was a combination of different things. Back then, it started with drones and then it evolved into the missiles. The question is, what order or what sequence will take place for this potential attack . Thats a question that the u. S. Is evaluating. I can also tell you from our reporting that there is a sense here that there could be more firepower that is used from iran this time around if they have a higher number of those Ballistic Missiles they employ. Last time, Israels Defense systems performed quite well, intercepting many of them. That was something where the u. S. Had also helped to support those defense capabilities. We are told this time around that the u. S. Is poised to help support those same kind of defense operations. But theres an open question about what other kinds of allies might be involved here who were playing a Role Back in the last attack but who may not necessarily be in this round. We are still watching for all of that. Theres still a lot thats unknown about how this could play out. This is something where the u. S. Had a sense, had indications that this is what iran was preparing to do. So they have been in touch with israel about how this may play out from a defense perspective. Its really important to note that as of now, the u. S. Expects that iran will be targeting mostly israeli Government And Military sites and not necessarily civilian targets. At the same time, of course, as you know, andrea, theres no Guarantee Civilians Wont be impacted depending on what we see happen here as the day unfolds. Erin, in israel, we are hearing reports that there were sirens, some Air Raid warnings in central israel. I dont know what you are hearing from where you are. As monica was pointing out, last time there was a combined allied response coming to the assistance of israel. Iron dome could do what it could do. A lot was intercepted by jordanian and other forces. We dont know that they would be involved this time. Theres been a lot of tension between the allies, arab and European Allies as well as the u. S. Calling for a ceasefire and pushing back against the escalation that israel ignored all of the appeals and israel was determined to follow this policy, which is very popular inside israel. This is not like gaza, as you know. This is getting the people they say back to their homes who have been evacuated since October 8th in the north, near the lebanese border. Railroad yeah, thats right, andrea. The sirens were sounding in central israel a short while ago. According to israeli military, a missile had been launched from lebanon towards central israel. Nevertheless, local authorities there have put out an alert in light of this intelligence coming from the united states that israelis in central israel should shelter in place. Very similar warning sent from the u. S. State department to embassy employees here in jerusalem. In terms of what we are hearing about a potential attack from israeli officials, about two hours ago, we heard from israeli spokesperson daniel hagarri, speaking in hebrew, addressing the people of israel saying that a short while ago, quote, our partners in the united states informed us they have identified that iran is preparing to launch missiles towards israel. He added, we do not detect any aerial threat launched from iran. Obviously, that situation can change very quickly. He went on to say, quote, our aerial Defense Systems are fully prepared and israeli Air Force Aircraft are patrolling the skies. However, the defense is not hermetic. No mention in that statement of allies or other countries coming to Israels Defense. The senior official at the White House, monica, said there would be serious consequences for any direct attack by iran. What does that look like . Reporter yeah. Remember, President Biden for months, whenever he is asked about what iran is poised to do or prepared to do when it has this rhetoric thats certainly a bit more threatening, he likes to respond with just one word, which is his message to iran is, dont. At the same time, the u. S. Doesnt have any indications that iran is actually interested, we are told, in a wider war. That has been the number one priority for the biden administration as this war In Gaza is reaching the Oneyear Mark on monday, notably. That has always been what they are trying to preserve the most, this idea that there could be a possible escalation that would involve other countries and, of course, the turmoil in lebanon in the last couple of weeks raised the specter of that all over again. The u. S. Has been working furiously behind the scenes to try to tamp down the temperature a bit to be sure that it doesnt get to that point. While the u. S. And the president still believe this is not something thats going to amount to a far larger escalation or explosion, the tensions are lending themselves to the question being very relevant right now. The u. S. , as it always does in these messages and statements, does warn about consequences for iran. That will be something that they have been discussing as well as the president has been huddling with his top national security officials on this and determining, again, paths forward that are related and intricately connected to this question of what happens with the war between israel and hamas, too. Monica and erin, thank you both so much. I know you will Stand By with updates. We want to bring in John Brennan, the former Cia Director during the obama administration, who has experience working for the agency in the Middle East as well as at the White House and the cia. Director brennan, how good is this intelligence about iranian intentions . Well, u. S. Intelligence is excellent when it comes to trying to detect a planned launch of missiles in the Middle East. Apparently, what has happened is that we have worked with the israelis to make sure that the israelis are aware that they could, in fact, be facing maybe a barrage of Ballistic Missiles very soon launched against israel proper. One of the real concerns is to make sure that the Air Defense systems that are in place, both on the ground in israel as well as in the air, are going to be primed to be able to intercept as many of those missiles that come in as possible and to try to prevent israeli defenses from being overwhelmed. I think whats notable is the short time of flight of Ballistic Missiles from iran to israel. It could be as short as 12 minutes or so. Even successful intercepts can lead to shrapnel Falling Down On Population centers that can kill and injure individuals. That Advance Warning on the Intelligence Front is so important for israel to be able to, again, prepare to intercept the missiles but also to take whatever actions they can on the ground to try to protect israeli and other citizens inside of israel. I think whats so notable you worked in the national Security Team as well as the cia and in the field. So notable now is that this is a point of the greatest diplomatic tension between israel and the united states that i have seen in many, many a year with the blindsiding of the u. S. About the pagers, about the nasrallah right after the Prime Minister was giving his speech to the u. N. Done while he was in u. S. Territory. All of these things that have happened that have not given the u. S. Neither a Heads Up nor clear indications about the ceasefire. There was a lot, quote, misunderstanding between the two sides about the ceasefire initiative. All that said, when israel gets under attack, the u. S. Is right there as its closest ally. Talk to me about that mutual defense and how important that is beyond all political differences. Absolutely. The united States Government has been committed to Israels Defense, especially if it is under attack. I think the biden administration will do whatever possible to protect israel. Its clear that the Netanyahu Government and prime Minister Netanyahu himself is intent on shaking up the Middle East Chess Board and to try to push back against his adversaries, whether it be hezbollah or hamas or iran at this point. I think netanyahu knows this is an opportune time do it with a month or so before u. S. Presidential elections that there will be strong support. Yes, we have criticized some of the israeli actions and are trying to make sure that we can move forward with a ceasefire. But its been rhetorical criticism. There has been no tangible demonstration of u. S. Displeasure with israel except for a very short delay in delivery of weapons earlier. Right now, i think the biden administration is going to make sure that israel is not going to be under attack from iran that could cause casualties inside of israel. As was pointed out i think you pointed out, the partnership of some of the countries in the region, such as jordan, is critically important, because these Ballistic Missiles will fly over jordan into israel. Last time, the jordanians and the united states and others in the region were able to work together to prevent any type of attacks that could cause devastating damage or largescale injuries. Right now, its a very dangerous time. We reached a new chapter. If some of these iranian missiles are launched and get through and that there are a significant number of casualties or damage thats done inside of israel, israel is likely to respond in some fashion. This is the concern that we have always had about a spiraling escalation that could lead to a Actualup War in the Middle East, which is the last thing i think anyone wants at this point. As you point out, this is a very difficult time politically for the administration, for any of this to be happening. I want to ask you about nasrallah. The u. S. Didnt know that strike was happening. In fact, they used u. S. Weapons exactly the Bunker Buster weapons that had caused the holdup in the delivery of more of those weapons, because they were used in civilian areas In Gaza when israel said they were targeting at one point with the refugee camp, one hamas suspected target, and hundreds of people arguably have died in these strikes. In any case, talk to me about nasrallah. You have worked in the agency. You know what hatched in 1983 with the marine barracks, when the embassy was bombed in beirut. Stavridis told us yesterday that his roommate in the academy was killed in that 1983 bombing. I suspect you lost people you know. You know people in the agency who have lost people. Nasrallah was a legitimate target. My boss was killed in 1983 in the embassy bombing. Yes, nsnasrallah had a lot of blood on his hands. He led a terrorist organization. Hezbollah has grown into a large organization, political party, social welfare, it involves so many aspects of lebanese daily life as representative of the large part of the lebanese shia population. What the israelis have demonstrated, i think, is tremendous intelligence about where these senior leaders reside or move to, and then also their willingness to incur a large number of civilian casualties as they go after this. Theres been a lot of criticism of israels Targeting Decisions that they are disproportional in terms of the number of innocent civilians who have been killed. But again, its clear that israel, under prime Minister Netanyahu, is determined to cause as much destruction as possible to hezbollah, to hamas, and then to other groups that threaten israels security. Again, the wisdom of some of israels recent actions, i think is yet to be determined, because we dont know what the reverberations are going to be. I am convinced that there are going to be members of hezbollah who are going to try to lash out at israel, israeli interests, jewish interests. Maybe not right now. But this is going to perpetuate the cycle, unfortunately, of violence in the Middle East, where theres an Eye For An eye and unfortunately, were going to be seeing many years ahead of us that are still going to pit unfortunately the inhabitants of the region against one another in a bloody confrontation. Its a biblical context. Understandably, as the u. S. Has been saying, you dont escalate to deescalate and make it possible for your citizens to return home to their homes in northern israel. Thank you so much, John Brennan, for all your experience. We appreciate it. We are keeping a close eye on the Situation Notice Middle East as we continue. U. S. Officials warn of an imminent attack by iran against israel t. Could come at any time. More from the region coming up. First, in 90 seconds, we will break down the matchup between tim Walz And J. D. Vance at Tonights Vice President ial debate. The one and only debate with Kristin Welker. First, a look back at one of the most memorable Vp Debate moments. I served with jack kennedy. I knew jack kennedy. Jack kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no jack kennedy. [ cheers and applause ] if youre living with hiv, imagine being good to go without Daily Hiv pills. Good to go off the grid. Good to go nonstop. With cabenuva, theres no pausing for Daily Hiv pills. 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Unlike the harris trump debate, microphones will not be muted while the other candidate is speaking. Cbs news, the host of the debate, says it will leave Fact Checking up to the candidates, not the moderators. Joining me is the moderator of Meet The Press Kristin Welker who did the debate in the last campaign cycle. An extraordinary debate it was. Plus senior advisor to President Bidens 2020 Campaign Alencia Johnson and the former chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele, host of The Weekend on saturday and sunday morning. Its great to have you all. Kristin, you know what the moderators are going through, the knots in their stomach. You solo, you did it with trump. It was incredible, trump and biden. Thank you. Lets talk about how this crisis in the Middle East, plus the other problems, domestic problems, the port strike, the floods, how does all of this affect the white House Strategy and the Harris Strategy . Its a great question. For the debate modermoderators, Envisioning Rewrite something questions as we speak. Lets just take iran, where you started this broadcast. This is creating an extraordinary and incredibly complicated backdrop for the harris walz campaign, because, of course, shes currently in the White House. Just moments ago, former President Donald Trump online posting about how this would never have happened if he were in the oval office. Of course, theres absolutely no proof of that. But thats the type of rhetoric, i think, you will hear from Senator Jd Vance tonight. I think it will put an outsized emphasis on Foreign Policy. From Governor Walzs perspective, im sure he was prepared to talk about Foreign Policy regardless. But obviously, this reshapes part of the conversation. Andrea, zooming out, a little bit, for Senator Vance, he has some of the lower favorability raings we have seen in history. One of his Challenges Tonight is to not just defend a trump presid presidency, but to come off as more likeable. For Governor Walz, ive been talking to democrats who are jittery. He hasnt been out front and center. He hasnt done a lot of media interviews. They know that vance can be strong on the debate stage. Can Walz Counter that in a compelling way, particularly given all of the new developments that you and i are discussing . From a democratic strategy standpoint, Tim Walz will not get Fact Checking from the moderators as the abc moderators did in that debate. What does he do . Does he become the Fact Checker in chief and slow everything down and start arguing over cats and dogs and other lies that have been spoken . Does he stick to his strategy . How does he handle immigration . He doesnt have a Foreign Policy background. He was in the military for 23 years, but not in a policy making role. Neither does Jd Vance, of course. Yeah. Thats the piece. Jd vance doesnt have this experience that he is going to try to pin against walz. I think to the point that Governor Walz will have to do some Fact Checking. He has been out here even before he was the Vice President ial nominee. He has been out here talking about the record and the lies coming out of the trump campaign. Thats the reason a lot of us knew who he was. He was calling them out for their lies and for the rhetoric. I dont doubt that he will have that ability to do that in a quick way while also talking about his plans to support a president harris as well as their plans to fix a lot of the issues that, quite frankly, Donald Trump and Jd Vance want to continue to make a fuss around but actually wont put forward any solutions. I think he will continue to paint this vision of america moving forward on a host of issues. I think that he will be able to manage both Fact Checking as well as talking about important items. Michael, Tim Walz was chosen because he is coach walz, minnesota nice. I guess he can be tougher tonight. What about Jd Vance . He has a low favorability, the lowest of the four candidates, one of the least liked Running Mates in the last 30 years. Kristin was pointing that out. How tough can he be . Does he have to try to soften the edges . No. As you know, he has an audience of one. He is performing for donald j. Trump and donald j. Trump wants to see an aggressive defender of the trump record. Yeah. Look, they are not worried about his favorability. Donald trump could care less about Jd Vances favorability. The only favorability he cares about is his own. Jd vance has one goal and one mission tonight, that is to make Donald Trump continue to like him. Not secondguess, as he has, picking him for Vice President. I expect him to come out strong. I expect him to come out hard. He is very good at the bait and shift. If you go back and look at some of his debates for his u. S. Senate campaign, he is very good at setting up the lie and shifting off of it and diverting to something else. I think for Tim Walz, basically, the Fact Checking the only Fact Checking he has to do go, thats a Lie And Move on. He cant go down that Rabbit Hole of explaining every lie thats going to come out of Jd Vances mouth. Hang his comments about women around his neck, his ankle, his arm ever chance you can. Not just about abortion but about women having control over their economies, having control over how they raise their families, having control on their roles in our society as leaders in the future. Theres a lot that both of these gentlemen will have to do. Their missions are very different. Jd vances mission is whatever Donald Trump wants. That is to play to that one person. I think tim Walzs Mission is to continue to advance the agenda and the nature of the harris campaign, which is looking forward and moving the country forward, not going backwards into trump. Kristin, Health Care is likely to be a big issue. There are domestic issues. Those are issues, the economy, immigration, obviously, but Health Care is a big economic issue for most americans now. Absolutely. Think about what happened during the debate between Donald Trump and Vice President harris. He talked about the fact that they have basically contours of a plan coming together to replace obamacare. He ran, back in 2016, on a promise to repeal and replace obamacare. Never did that. I pressed Jd Vance on, what is the plan . There was no clear answer. I think that will be in the spotlight, particularly in the context of this postroe era. The fact that there have been a range of different statements put forth by former President Donald Trump as it relates to reproductive rights. I think that walz will try to put that in focus. That will be an area where he will highlight. Im told that he is being advised, look, highlight all of those moments when Senator Vance criticized former president trump. Keep that in focus so that the audience remembers just how big of a shift it is that walz is running with Donald Trump in the first place. One more point, andrea, when you think about whats the importance of a Vice President ial debate . I would argue, this Vice President ial debate takes on a new meaning simply because there is no second debate scheduled right now between Donald Trump and kamala harris. This could be the final word effectively of the campaign. The beginning of the closing arguments. We are five weeks out. Its incredible. We will be watching tonight for all your analysis. Thank you so much. Michael steel as well and alencia johnson. You can check in with Kristin And Team for an expert postdebate analysis. Coverage kicks off at 7 00 eastern. We will go back to the Middle East for the latest on what u. S. Officials are warning could be an imminent attack by iran against israel. You are watching Andrea Mitchell reports. This is msnbc. And most importantly, it works for them. I dont have any anxiety about money anymore. I dont have to worry about a Mortgage Payment every month. It allowed me to live in my home and not have to make payments. If youre 62 or older and own your home, you could access a portion of your equity to improve your lifestyle. A reverse Mortgage Loan can eliminate your monthly Mortgage Payments and put taxfree cash in your pocket. It was the best thing ive ever done. Really . Yes without a doubt. These folks know, finance of america can show you how a reverse Mortgage Loan uses your Builtup Home Equity to give you taxfree cash. Its a good thing so look, why dont you get the facts like these folks did and see if a Reverse Mortgage could work for you. Call finance of america and get your free, info kit. Call this number. San franciscos been through tough times. 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Israel prepares for what is being described by senior u. S. Officials as an imminent ballistic Missile Attack from iran. It only takes 12 minutes to get from iran to israel. The same time, continuing israeli strikes against hezbollah locations inside lebanon, as far north as beirut. Reports of a shooting around Tel Aviv. The initial suspicion is a terror attack. Back with us is Erin Mclaughlin and Matt Bradley. Erin, what do we know about the situation around Tel Aviv . Reporter andrea, we are just hearing reports of sirens across israel at the Moment Warning of a potential missile launch. Its unclear at this point what those sirens are referring to, where the missile has been fired from. As we await for more information from israeli officials about potential Missile Launches, we are also hearing from police in Tel Aviv that there has been a suspected terror attack, a shooting in Tel Aviv, injuring a number you can hear behind me now, we are Hearing Sirens in jerusalem as well. I dont know if you can hear that. Back to what unfolded a short while ago in Tel Aviv. There was a shooting incident. We are hearing from the Police Spokesperson there were multiple casualties. They suspect that the motive is terror. With respect to that incident, we are also hearing from Emergency Officias to the south of Tel Aviv. It seems to be the same attack they are referring to, the shooting unfolded at 7 01 p. M. , that medics and paramedics were in the process of providing medical treatment on the spot erin, since every minute counts here im saying, that we now know that we have confirmed Nbc News confirmed missiles have been launched toward israel by iran. Are you getting the same word there . We hear the sirens. Reporter im getting the same word here. Im hearing the sirens sound here in jerusalem. In the distance i saw a light rising up into the sky. Do you have to get into a shelter . Reporter yes, we should get into a shelter. Im going to Matt Bradley in beirut. You get into a shelter. Please get off the roof. Matt, pick it up from there. Whats going on in beirut right now . Reporter not as much as whats going on in Tel Aviv compared to my colleague Erin Mclaughlin. I hope she and her team are safe. We have been taking bombardments from the israelis coming behind me. You can see the skyline here. This is the neighborhood which is a shia Majority Neighborhood South of beirut. Its a hezbollah stronghold. This is the area where nasrallah was killed on friday. The israelis continuing to pummel this neighborhood as well as points throughout the country. This comes just a couple of hours after we heard from the israelis they had launched a Ground Incursion into israel. That was the first time they said they had done this. It sounded like that at the time. Since then, we have gotten news they have been doing this repeatedly for much of the past year. Sending in soldiers across the border into lebanon and using this as reconnaissance maneuvers. We heard from hezbollah. They said there had been no israeli incursion. In fact, this was all israeli propaganda. They said they had not encountered any soldiers and had not had a firefight with them. I can hear concussions now. It sounds like theres continuing bombing behind me here in beirut. We are probably not going to see those iranian missiles you were speaking about flying over here in lebanon. There is another interesting element to this. Other arab countries other Middle Eastern countries other than iran and israel, for whose these Ballistic Missiles will fly over. It doesnt sound as though from Courtney Kube and others that the u. S. Has shored up the same alliance it did in april, including the jordanians who they they helped the israelis and the united states shooting down those Ballistic Missiles flying over them. Now we dont know exactly whether or not these missiles are going to be swatted out of the sky so easily. Last time it was mostly drones. Now u. S. Officials are telling my colleagues in washington, like courtney, Monica And Carol that more a higher proportion of the projectiles that are going to be fired it sounds like we are hearing them being fired now. A higher proportion are going to be Ballistic Missiles and not drones. Therefore, it will be more complicated, more difficult to intercept them even for the Iron Dome. It probably will be more like davids sling, the higher order of antiMissile Defense or antiAir Defense theisraelis employ. Iron dome is for smaller missiles. Davids sling is a little bit more sophisticated. Its for Ballistic Missiles that tend to be higher in the atmosphere. We can expect the israeli systems, antiair systems will be deployed down to shoot down a lot of the missiles. Whether or not they will be as successful as in april when all 300, with few exceptions, were shot down. The ones that werent were allowed to land in empty areas. There were only a few injuries recorded. This is a situation that could get a lot worse. The environment is more different than back in april. Nasrallah has been killed. The iranians have two open accounts with the israelis. They still havent avenged the Death Of Haniyeh, a senior hamas official killed in april. They vowed vengeance. They have yet to do so. This could be that. Also at same time, on friday, when the head of hezbollah was killed in that neighborhood right here, there was a senior irgc commander, islamic revolutionary Guard Corps killed with him. While the iranians had a lot to say about the death of hasrallah nasrallah, they vowed to avenge their own iranian national, this commander who was also killed in the raid. This retaliation is actually retaliation for two separate acts that the iranians have blamed on the israelis. That first one of killing of haniyeh, the israelis never took responsibility for that. It was believed they were behind it. From now on, we are basically seeing the iranians taking vengeance on israel for two separate deaths, two separate assassinations of two senior people, one a guest at the iranian state at the time, the other an iranian national, senior commander in the irgc. The iranians have a lot to say. They have a big Vengeance Account with the israelis. We are seeing them act on that just now, just tonight. In the skies over Tel Aviv, we just saw what appeared to be the Iron Dome or davids sling. Davids sing, more effective against Ballistic Missiles which come at a faster clip than the drones. That Missile Defense apparently working over Tel Aviv. We can see a lot of flashes that seem to be Missile Defense in action. I want to bring in chief international Correspondent Keir simmons in qatar. As you know we can hear more sirens over Tel Aviv. The qataries have been instrumental. They have been thanked by The Americans for trying to achieve ceasefires, for trying to restrain the israelis. Now we are in an allout iranian attack. We dont know how large its going to be. Its in their interest to show some significant backup for hezbollah. There was a lot of controversy in that world, among the hezbollah leaders. Last friday when they were meeting, one of the reported reasons for the meeting was dismay by some of the hezbollah commanders that they had not been there had not been iranian retaliation for what happened previously to the pagers and to the death of nasrallah and the Death Of Haniyeh in tehran. Reporter thats right, andrea. Those munitions fired from iran, fired from just across the water from here in qatar, and now that airborne confrontation between iran, israel and its allies happening in the air in this region. We actually expect the president of iran to arrive here in qatar. You can hear those explosions there in israel. Just hours before we expect the iranian president to arrive here in qatar, an official with knowledge of the visit confirms to us tonight that he is still expected to come here, even while what you are listening to there in israel is taking place. As you say, rightly, just at the unga just days ago making a speech and talking to reporters suggesting that Ta Iran wants aw era. That was before the assassination of nasrallah. Now this, months of the u. S. Signaling to iran in this region not to respond like this. Months in which we thought there would be a response over the killing of haniyeh, which didnt take place. Now clearly a response. The Question Tonight there will be assessments taking place even as these missiles fly. The question is going to be exactly what is the nature of that response, what is the Message Iran is sending . Does it feel it has to respond but will hold back in some way or other . Will it fire its full munition ability, if you like, at israel in these coming hours . I interviewed the president of iran in New York as well as the Vice President , someone we both know very well from the nuclear negotiations. They were taking a relatively hard line but also signaling that they thought there could be some kind of engagement with the west. They are so desperate to get sanctions relieved. They are not acknowledging any Military Component of their nuclear program, but their nuclear program is becoming dangerously close, according to american intelligence, to getting to the point where they have reached full nuclear fuel at the 90 purification rate. They are at 60 away. They are a week or two from having a weapon. Theres fears in the Region And Israel and the united states about that nuclear threshold because Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement which had some guardrails. A lot of controversy over iranian policy. Now iran, according to all intelligence, as we have been watching these continued negotiations for a ceasefire In Gaza, all of intentions were that iran was signaling to the united states, to the west they did not want a wider war. That is the main reason why the u. S. Was so out front in trying to restrain israel, its closest ally, from going ahead with these attacks against lebanon and against hezbollah in lebanon. But that was without success. Now we see a fullout assuming that these are interceptions. We dont know how effective the Iron Dome, the davids sling, The American protective defenses around israel are from the mediterranean and around israel. Reporter thats right, andrea. I thought that interview was extraordinary. Speaking in english, listening to an iranian Leader Talk about wanting to effectively, perhaps not his words, wanting to negotiate even while this was playing out in the region. I thought it was incredibly impactful to juchl juxtapose th. You have what you are seeing and hearing from iran. That message while at the same time as i mentioned, the iranian president is set to land here within the next 24 hours to come to a conference and to talk to world leaders. As you rightly say, the qataries describe themselves as mediators. They have been working in their eyes to mediate between the parties. Assuming the iranian president still lands here, thats still taking place even while this is going on. Talking about those if you like, you could call them mitched messages from iran. The ayatollah expected to give a sermon on friday. Thats unusual. That indicates that iran is in a state of emergency, if you like. The high level, the concern is there, to put it another way, the combative pose that they are in right now. Of course, what we are seeing tonight is clear indication of that. Again, with all of this confusion by the way, the cynics will say, dont they do say, dont listen to the iranians when they say when they say i want to try to move past all this. Dont listen to them. Its just a diplomatic fake. Its a way to try to win friends while they still pose an existential threat to israel. Thats what critics would say. Just in terms of those mixed messages, they continue from iran, even tonight while these attacks are taking place. I should mention that the iranian president , after the briefing he gave to reporters there in New York, was criticized in iran for taking his more liberal for taking a more liberal stance and appeared to harden up his message to the united nations when he spoke in front of the united nations. Theres internal politics Inside Iran playing out even while externally they are firing their missiles at israel. We should point out that the president has convened a national Security Meeting in the situation room. Most likely with the national Security Team, the Vice President. They are there confronting this crisis while they were preparing to have meetings on the Flood Crisis in North Carolina and georgia and in the southeast. Joining me now is the director of research at the sufan group. How strong do you think this iranian attack will be . They were being criticized in their world by hezbollah and other partisans, other proxies, for not responding sooner. The u. S. Thought they were not going to retaliate immediately, that they didnt want a wider engagement. Perhaps the assassination of nasrallah and the Command And Control gone is something they couldnt control. They need to respond so they dont appear weak. If they respond too forcefully, they risk israeli retaliation and further escalation. The iranians are in a very different bind. The united states is watching this really closely and may end up intervening as well, which would escalate to another level. Bated breath as we wait to see where the missiles land. Hopefully, the Iron Dome does its job. We are in aandrea. And, colin, do we know what the American Military Posture is in the region . I know they have got Air Defenses. So, what they did last time can be replicated this time, the Centcom Commander was there back in april, and since the military has been working very closely together, the Defense Minister gallant has been in almost daily touch with lloyd austin. Exactly. We have seen more u. S. Military muscle moved into the region over the past 11 months than we have seen in a really long time. Again, think about the administration and the shift to great power competition. There is a lot of talk about wanting to focus on asia, but the Middle East keeps dragging the united states back in. And i think, you know, given this ongoing conflict between iran, israel, and all of the iranian proxies and the axis of resistance, it is the smart thing to do, to move to more muscular posture in the region and i know, you know, Secretary Austin is conferring with his leadership to see how the u. S. Will respond. But right now it is basically on Stand By. And John Brennan is back with us. In the midst of all of this, we were waiting for a potential iranian retaliation, israel did move in overnight with what they called a small limited Ground Incursion. Not a full invasion. The warnings from the u. S. And you were suggesting this earlier when we spoke this hour that you can never know once you get into a war how you get out of it and we know what happened in 1982 with their getting into lebanon and not getting out for years and years and then also the conflict in 2006. Thats right, andrea. This has real potential for even greater escalation as the israelis are poised to move into Southern Lebanon to stay for some period of time, buthe iranians right now are trying to thread a needle because they do not want to appear to be cowed or militarily impotent in the face of israeli Military Action against its Principle Proxy Force hezbollah. At the same time, i think the iranians recognize that they can certainly not go Toe To toe with a u. S. Backed israel that has demonstrated, i think, tremendous military capability, and so, well have to see the extent of this these Missile Launches and whether or not theyll all be intercepted or not. But, again, we are in a very, very dangerous stage where this could lead to a quick escalation and spiraling, which could lead to even more Violence And Bloodshed and greater conflict in the area. John, i know that you had to bridge the national security and the political worlds in your previous role in the White House, Donald Trump is saying, you know this would never have happened on his watch. And arguably Joe Biden was the most experienced foreign Policy President that we had in many, many years, but what is the response to that . Well, Donald Trump has very limited understanding of situation in the Middle East. The history or the current situation. And i think were going to continue to hear things from trump and his campaign that are going to criticize the biden administration, but i think it is a fact that the united states has quite frankly limited influence when it comes to stopping israel when israel believes that it faces these existential threats and that it is going to take Military Action to mitigate those threats. So, unfortunately, the horrendous attacks by hamas a year ago In Gaza, you know, triggered now a series of developments that, you know, 45,000 are dead over the last year. And with the potential for many more dead, and many of those civilians in Gaza And Lebanon as well as in israel. So, again, the united states is probably has the most influence in the region, but still it is limited to stop something like this that has already started to, you know, have a momentum of its own and now it is a question of how israel is going to handle the Missile Attacks and how it will respond to them if, in fact, some israeli citizens are killed or injured as a result. And to that point, i want to bring in my colleague David Rhode, our senior national Security Editor at Nbc News. David and john, i was at a briefing on friday with the senior israeli official, arguing that they needed to go into lebanon, needed to destroy the Command And Control of hezbollah, this was immediately after the strike. They did not yet know if nasrallah was killed but they pretty much thought he had been and were waiting proof of that, they argued there were weapons in tunnels in Southern Lebanon along the israeli border and unless they destroyed those tunnels, there were weapons in homes and rockets and military equipment all positioned for an attack, similar to the October 7th attack. The description, david, by that israeli official was that sinwar, the hamas terror leader, was still alive In Gaza, had jumped the gun and that this was a long Range Plan by iran through its proxies to encircle israel and eliminate israel by 2040 and that the next step was going to be a Surprise Attack by hezbollah and that they had intelligence of this. David, we dont know if that intelligence is matched by The American intelligence. But that is clearly the motivation for israel going in or saying theyre going in, they were under huge political pressure to get there. 65,000, 70,000 have been displaced. Theyre determined to root out these weapons and go into these tunnels and that means from the air, they said, but gallant said yesterday from the air, from the ground, the air and the sea. Yeah, youre seeing a very aggressive israeli response and now iran is trying to strike back. And for the iranian regime, this is a major threat to them, losing a leader of hezbollah was an enormous blow to their decades old strategy of using proxies. This is a sort of Epic Moment right now. Can Israels Defenses, the Iron Dome, can Israeli Jets and american jets down whatever iran has fired . There are Ballistic Missiles that take over 12 minutes from launching in iran to Tel Aviv, in the attack in april there were waves of drones, those were shot down very quickly. So, what is happening right now in israel is just critical in terms of what new directions it takes. John brennan, this time we dont know that the jordanians and other allies, the europeans as well, will be assisting in the Air Defense because there has been so much dismay in the region against israels going into lebanon. Well, i think certainly our european partners, the brits and some others will do what they can to prevent any type of loss of life inside of israel as a result of iranian ballistic Missile Attacks. The jordanians may be a question because, again, after looking at what has happened in lebanon, and as so many palestinians and lebanese who have died at the because of israeli strikes, the jordanians might be a little bit more reluctant, but at the same time, the jordanians have been good partners to the united states and do not want a regional conflict. And wide Scale War because it could, in fact, envelop them and threaten theyre national security interests as well. I would like to think that the players in the region as well as israel supporters will do what they can to try to prevent this from just spiraling out of control. But, again, as we watch what is happening over israel, and if we see some, you know, explosions there, to me, that augers ominously for an escalation because i think israel will want to lash back at iran and could be in a major way. And as you can see over the Night Skies over Tel Aviv and jerusalem, on your screen, it is almost 8 00 p. M. In Tel Aviv and jerusalem. They are seven hours ahead of the East Coast of the united states. Schoolchildren were in school earlier today, but there was a School Holiday starting tomorrow leading up to the new years holiday, which starts at sundown on wednesday. So, starting tomorrow, schools are closed through sunday. So, children will be home, theyll be near their shelters, right now what is happening in israel is people going into their shelters, every building there has shelters, all the hotels, david, whenever we go to israel, on any of these trips, ive gone to so many with the Secretary Of State as hes been trying ten trips hes tried to negotiate a ceasefire In Gaza, and one of the biggest reasons was that all of the iranian proxies had observed the ceasefire that did exist last november and for a few days In Gaza. So the hope was that hezbollah would observe another ceasefire, then they try for a ceasefire in lebanon, thinking they could switch the sequencing, but clearly they have failed at all of these different diplomatic efforts. Matt bradley and Erin Mclaughlin, thanks to you, hoping that erin is down in the shelter, but coming up next, Ben Rhodes is joining us as well, the former deputy national security adviser. Ben, youre with John Brennan and David Rhode is here with me. This is what the u. S. Feared when they said to netanyahu for all of his reasons to go in against hezbollah, they said, thats not the best way to get