Your people back into their homes, you dont escalate to deescalate. And obviously now, with the iranian retaliation, israelis are in their shelters as they go into the new years holiday weekend. Ben . Yeah. I think, you know, since October 7th, the Biden Administration has had a number of goals, one was to provide support to israel as it aims to go after hamas, but then also one of the principle goals of u. S. Diplomacy since October 7th had been avoiding deescalation into lebanon, precisely because i think there was an understanding that lebanon could be kind of the Trip Wire to this broader regional war that essentially, you know, it is one thing if there is a conflict In Gaza, that alone is destabilizing enough and is obviously brought a tremendous Human Toll and has grinded on for a full year. But the concern has always been that if israel launched a Ground Operation and significantly escalated things in lebanon that could draw iran into a conflict in a direct way as were seeing tonight and that israel might be compelled to respond against iran and then suddenly the whole region could light up because youre dealing with lebanon, where there could be internal conflicts, and obviously a longer term israeli presence. Youre dealing with proxy forces like the houthis in yemen, iraq is a place that the u. S. Always watches carefully for potential escalation. We have enormous diplomatic presence and troops there. And so the concern has always been if the whole region catches the fire that has been burning In Gaza, and kind of in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon, we could see what were seeing now. And, again, im struck by the fact that these are ballistic missiles. The last iranian attack on israel felt almost calibrated with drones and with other longer missiles that took longer to reach their targets to kind of send a message without trying to escalate things. This feels, you know, like the kind of thing that is going to compel an israeli response at the same time theyre in lebanon this is what the administration i think had been seeking to avoid for the last year. And david, we talk about the region, the Shia Militias In Iraq are of great threat to u. S. Forces there. The iraqis under pressure from iran were demanding the exit of all u. S. Forces, that hasnt taken place yet, but they have been drawing down. This is a pivotal moment for the Biden Administration. One of their goals they have told some of our colleagues on nbc is to try to prevent this kind of regional war from erupting in the Middle East between now and november 5th, to show the Biden Harris Administration can deliver stability. The killing of the leader of hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, which shocked many people, the success of the israeli Air Strikes in addition to killing him, they killed multiple other leaders, taken out large arms depots, that compelled iran to respond as theyre doing right now. And it is what ben said, how does israel respond to this . If one missile gets through, or two, and dozens of israeli civilians are killed in these attacks that are happening right now, there will be tremendous pressure on prime Minister Netanyahu to then retaliate against iran. So, again, this is a grave moment, historic moment, we have to see how events play out. And, ben rhodes, to follow up on that, youve been in the White House in these kinds of circumstances, difficult circumstances, during your eight years in the obama administration. This is exactly what the administration did not want to happen five weeks from an election. Yeah. I mean that opens up all kinds of issues as we see the lack of stability in the Middle East. Yeah. I mean, i think there are multiple concerns. Obviously the initial concern is the safety of the people that are under bombardment now in israel. Also the risk of scenes of Chaos And Violence and further loss of life in lebanon. And the ways in which this could escalate. And just to bring other concerns into it, you know, the middle East Kind of erupts in chaos, that drives up Energy Prices as well. Something that is obviously already, you know, been of Grave Concern to the american electorate. And there are all these other Wild Cards too. Looking out, you know, several weeks, what happens with the iranian nuclear program, which is now no longer under any international monitoring or verification. As iran lost some of the capability that they saw in hezbollah and lebanon, do they feel like they need to make a move in the direction of pursuing a nuclear weapon . What happens to kind of the stability of governments like jordan that have been under a lot of pressure from their own domestic populations and so anytime you War Game this, you know, without giving too much detail in the White House, there really is a Chain Reaction that can get set off here. In lebanon often is a part of the Middle East where those kind of Chain Reactions can get set off. Because there are so many different parties that have interests there, that are active there, it is not kind of contained in the same way that gaza is, because it brings in these iranian interests, brings in different kinds of regional sentiment, and so, again, i think we are watching that scenario that has a potential to be, you know, above all, tragic for the people in the Cross Fire in the Middle East, but, yes, youre right, in terms of the political calendar for there to be an escalating war in the Middle East in october is certainly not, you know, anything that i would like to separate these issues from politics, but inevitably Donald Trump will say there is chaos, ill end the chaos, in his Strongman Message will be his answer to this, and here, the best politics for Biden Harris Administration is better Policy Outcomes and im sure thats what theyll be working towards and frantically in the days ahead. And, of course, this attack, the successful attack against hezbollah, against nasrallah, the pagers, the covert operations, the elimination Of Haniyeh has all really improved the popularity dramatically inside israel of benjamin netanyahu. And politics is never really far from the torturous politics of the israeli cabinet. I want to bring in keir simmons, again, in doha, and who has been talking to people about the iranian response. How are they calibrating their response, keir . Well, andrea, let me just bring you a little bit of news that we are just watching and this is from the irgc, the iranian revolutionary guard, who people who know iran will know will be the partner the wing of the iranian establishment that will be operating this attack on israel. What the irgc are saying tonight, just been saying this, is that they and were getting reports from our own iran team and this is being reported across the region one report saying the irgc says it fired Tens Of Missiles, Tens Of Missiles and then that it says should the israeli regime respond to irans operation, it will face crushing attacks, implying perhaps the attacks will be stronger. I think that message is interesting for two reasons. It goes to the conversation you just have been having about the danger of escalation. The irgc saying we have attacked, and we will if israel responds, we will attack again, and we will be that attack will be stronger. But that also, that message tonight, from the iranian revolutionary guard suggests that it is indicating that this isnt the full force of irans capability, that it hasnt launched, if you want to describe it this way, you know, a fullthroated attack. There will be others analyzing the details of what iran actually did to assess whether that really is the case, and the extent to which this was a limited attack, if it was, and the extent to which israels allies were the key factor here in preventing the attack or answering the attack. The missiles in the air over the region in the past few hours. The irgc, andrea, also saying that this was in response to the martyrdom Of Haniyeh, the leader of hamas, who, as you know, was assassinated in tehran. And also to the killing of nasrallah, the leader of hezbollah. And also to the killing of the head of the Jerusalem Brigade in lebanon. In response, the irgc says we targeted the heart of the occupied territories. And Matt Bradley in beirut, what are you seeing there, in the skies over beirut . Reporter this is something that i believe and im speculating here, but i believe it is entirely separate to what were seeing elsewhere in the Middle East, were seeing hundreds of rounds of Tracer Fire coming out of the southern area of beirut. I dont know exactly where that is coming from. It is coming from just beyond that building, but before the ridge line. So it doesnt look like it is coming from beyond the City Limits or beyond the suburbs of southern beirut. But it does look as though this is probably not, because of where it is coming from, aimed at intercepting anything. Of course, the lebanese wouldnt be intercepting anything and there wouldnt be any overflight of those iranian ballistic missiles here so far north in beirut. It does look as though it is firing from the Southern District or southern areas of beirut at some sort of possibly a drone that has been flying overhead. All day, and the past several days we have been Hearing Drones flying around. We also have been seeing in the last hour several flashes, which looks like the continuation of what we have been seeing again for the past two weeks, which is israel pounding over and over again the southern areas of beirut and the southern suburbs of beirut, all of those places, Shia Muslim majority areas, Hezbollah Strongholds, and now subject to increased expanded israeli bombardment as israel expands its fight against hezbollah in just the past two weeks. So, now, of course, we also have been hearing and seeing here that new incursion over the border that happened overnight. This is all indications of israels expanded attacks against hezbollah. When we talk about hezbollah and iran, the connection between the two is so intimate. Really hezbollah here is the Cats Paw for the iranian regime when it comes to fighting against israel. It has been historically the strongest group of all. There are all these different groups that make up the socalled Axis Of Resistance that are antithetical to israel and some of the sunni Gulf Monarchies in the gulf, but at the same time, this hezbollah, is the strongest, it has the most weapons, it has the best organization, and ideologically and spiritually it is the closest connected to iran. In its founding chart, hezbollah has it basically declared fealty to iran, iran helped to found it in the early 80s. It has the same tenets that they practice, this notion of a hierarchical religious ideology that is somewhat unique to shiaism within the muslim world. When were talking about hezbollah, more than any of the other groups that are in the orbit of the Axis Of Resistance that are backed by iran in the Middle East, hezbollah is the closest and thats why the death of Hassan Nasrallah on friday in an israeli bombardment as well as as keir mentioned a senior member of the irgc, the islamic revolutionary guard corps, this is one of the main groups in iran that is responsible for Funding And Recruiting and basically upkeep and political cover for all of the different members of the Axis Of Resistance, whether in yemen, the houthis, hamas, in the gaza strip, or some of these shiite groups backed by Iran And Syria and iraq. So this is why you see such a strong connection and why one of the things that keir mentioned, one of the Acts Of Vengeance that the irgc is taking tonight with these ballistic missiles fired at israel is because of those twin killings here in beirut on friday, in the same huge Bombing Right over my right shoulder. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the head of hezbollah and another senior irgc commander, both of these have created this atmosphere and this feeling of vengeance along with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh months ago that the iranians still have not accounted for, they still havent taken the vengeance that they claimed that they would have. Were seeing that tonight. So as far as the iranians are concerned, this is the moment to strike, and here you can actually hear it, there is gunshots. You can hear. Thats not fighting in the streets. Im going to make a leap and assume that thats celebratory gunfire happening in the neighborhood of dahia, this Hezbollah Stronghold in the south of beirut, celebratory gunfire as people are seeing, i think thats what this is, as people are seeing the iranian attack against israel. Andrea . And david rhodes, nasrallah started with study as a schooler in iran. He had that background which he brought to creating hezbollah out of the Civil War In Lebanon in the early 80s. Richard engel, our colleague is apparently reporting that so far at least, we see some more antiaircraft fire over Tel Aviv, that the defenses have so far worked very well. There have been no Mass Casualty s according to engle. Is it does look like another wave is starting right now, david. Lets just talk about the military matchup here. Obviously iran has an enormous military force. They have been moderating in what they did in april, that was pointed out that there were Cruise Missiles. Not the fast flying ballistic missiles that are so much more devastating and harder to defend against, but u. S. Has a lot of firepower and defensive weapons in the region. It does. It was the u. S. The u. S. Played a major role in april when the iranian attack essentially failed. It is a tremendously positive sign for the idf, for the israeli military, that there have been no Mass Casualty events. My colleague is texting me saying this will continue in waves, this isnt over yet. The iranians have learned from april. I would say there has been a lot of criticism of the Idfs Performance in terms of the number of palestinians killed In Gaza, but, again, what was achieved on the strikes in lebanon killing nasrallah, specifically the iranian revolutionary guard has said these strikes are in revenge for his killing, but the israeli attacks in lebanon have been very successful, much more successful in disrupting hezbollah, getting rid of the leadership, and if the Iron Dome does perform well, thats a tremendous statement again for the israeli military that helps prime Minister Netanyahu. But we just dont know yet. This could continue. It is far too early to say. General barry mccaffrey, retired four star general, of course, who has taught at West Point and knows this region so well, barry mccaffrey, general, tell us how you view the matchup here so far. It is very difficult to say, because we dont know exactly what theyre throwing at Tel Aviv, but it does seem there has been confirmation that ballistic missiles were involved. Yeah, well, i would assume that the iranians will not target in this attack israeli urban areas. Theyre going after military bases. Many of which are out in the desert environments and would be unlikely to sustain serious casualties, even to the military. We also need to be concerned, though that the iranians in april fired 120 ballistic missiles at israel of which nine did get through and struck two military bases. So that Air Defense Capability of israel, short range Iron Dome, medium david slings, long Range Arrow three, works brilliantly, but not perfectly. So there is a clear risk that an iranian serious strike, which is sustained for days, could cause serious damage on the ground. I think the other thing we got to look at, the israelis have two divisions up on the northern border, they just called up four more brigades, theyre getting close to the point which they can conduct significant ground incursions. Terrain, very difficult fight ahead, but there is zero possibility of them eliminating this gigantic Hezbollah Rocket and Missile Capability unless they go in on the ground. That will be a different kind of war. So were in very perilous situation, the israelis are losing the information war, which astonishes me. We got to remind ourselves that this started with 7 octobers demented attack on israel, Hundreds Murdered and abducted. Hezbollah initiated their attack in solidarity on 8 october. They fired 7,000, 8,000 missiles at israel. So this is defensive warfare by israel to protect its people. And, general, when we talk about all this, we also have to realize that the West Bank has been almost on fire in terms of tensions between settlers, the idf, palestinians. There were several attacks on Palestinian Enclaves in jenin, which the israelis said were terrorist strongholds, the palestinians denied that. The u. S. Was poised to take action against some of the israeli some of the israeli soldiers, and settlers in the West Bank for violent actions against palestinians civilians. So, there is that is a hotbed also. Jordan is very concerned about that, obviously, bordering jordan. And right now gaza is not resolved. Sinwar is still under ground In Gaza, with hamas, hezbollah is diminished, but thats to the north. There is another attack now minutes ago, we can see over Tel Aviv and the West Bank is another front were seeing reports from israeli police outside of Tel Aviv and the suburbs, concerns of possible Terror Attacks there at local hotels. That is a residential Area And Tourist area along the water, Beautiful Beachfront area and police are now scanning the area for potential terrorists there. Well, no Question Israel is beleaguered. Theyre also under attack by houthi vehicles from 1,000 miles away to the south in yemen. West bank, the israelis are in very troublesome legal and diplomatic and security challenges. There have been clearly criminal activities by some of the israeli settlers. And having said that, there is zero possibility that the israelis, the idf will ever withdraw from the West Bank. From a strategic viewpoint, it leaves them completely vulnerable. Were all aware, given the geography the demographics of the situation. So, israel is in trouble. They do have a powerful military, they see themselves as fighting for their literal existence. They see iran is essentially a nuclear state. Within weeks they could an r co abrocate, we could be in a different posture, the u. S. And israel, dealing with iran, almost at a time of their choosing. It is hard to see a good outcome. The Biden Administration, lloyd austin, tony blinken, the secretary of state, have been unrelenting in trying to talk down the warring participants. But basically, the Israelis Arent going to go along with any initiative that leaves them vulnerable to a renewed attack. They have hezbollah absolutely terrorized. They have taken out thousands of their chain of command, wounded, devastated injuries, so hezbollah is really in a state of disarray. But that wont last for long. The israelis are going to act, while they can, in concert with a Ground And Air operations. And, general mccaffrey, i want to share with you, something that was said at a briefing on friday in New York by a senior israeli official, when i asked whether they would after the attack that day, which was ultimately the successful attack from their Point Of View against nasrallah, but at that point they did not know, but after those strikes, when i asked whether they would stop because of the successful Pager Explosions and other covert activities, and this senior official said that as he learned when he was a captain in the idf, from Generals Patton and mcarthur, when your enemy down, you dont let them get back up. When you have momentum in war, im paraphrasing, when you have momentum in war, you keep on going. Which was certainly the signal as clear as it could be to me and the other people at the briefing that israel was not going to let up on that fridaca. I went to a News Conference with Secretary Blinken and read that to him and his response was we still prefer a diplomatic solution. They were still calling for a ceasefire while their closest ally was saying not going to happen. Which, david rhodes, arguably made the u. S. Look weaker than ever in its diplomatic engagement with israel. There has been a pattern here of President Biden asking for ceasefires In Gaza, for restraint in Hezbollah And Netanyahu going forward. The difference is the decisiveness of these israeli actions in lebanon. There are reports of a gunman possibly armed with an Assault Rifle and may have been some deaths on the ground, this would be an individual carrying out an attack, no sense of numbers yesterday. Israeli police said multiple people were our colleagues are following on all that, thats a setback, again, we have to keep waiting and seeing, but is this is a more sophisticated attacks, if there is an individual gunman at the same time israels firing its more than 100 missiles, thats come from israeli sources. This is a very significant attack. We dont know if thats coordinated or just a target of opportunity. Exactly. We have to determine. Monica alba at the White House, there has been a national Security Meeting as youve been reporting. You were the first to report to us that this warning was being given by the u. S. , that a ballistic Missile Attack was imminent from iran. What more are you hearing from the administration . I can tell you right now President Biden and Vice President harris are monitoring all of these ongoing developments in real time from the White House situation room. They have been briefed by their national security teams. And that has been going on for the last four or five hours, im told. This is something that the u. S. Had early indications of, and then they have been, of course, tracking and in touch with their relevant counterparts in terms of israel and other potential allies here about how to handle it. And another piece of information that were just getting now, andrea, the president has indeed directed the u. S. Military to help Israels Defense against these attacks, and to shoot down missiles that are targeting israel. This is something that we saw happen back when iran launched those projectiles and missiles in april, and it is something that is happening again. There are key differences and questions about how this attack is playing out compared to the previous one, but the u. S. Has been very firm in that it will stand with israel and its right to defend itself against attacks like this specifically. And we know that President Biden in recent weeks, his top priority has been to try to limit anything that would escalate to a wider war. But as this is all happening so quickly, hes developing and monitoring this and trying to generate whatever kind of response the u. S. Will have to this rhetorically as this is still going on. For now, theyre monitoring everything, theyre waiting to see exactly how long these waves of attacks may continue. And it is notable that the president and the Vice President who were supposed to have very different schedules on a day like today and this week, that has always been altered, not just by this ongoing Security Situation in the Middle East, but by the devastation from Hurricane Helene, so theyre really in the moment changing things and they are really putting aside the politics and the Campaign Trail for the moment to deal with this kind of a national security crisis. It is notable that the Vice President , of course, has been brought into all of this as well. She canceled and came back earlier from some campaign Commitments Yesterday to get a Fema Briefing again, related to Hurricane Helene and then today she is focused on this, along with the president , im told. The other thing, andrea, were monitoring is to see how many of the allies of israel and the u. S. Might be involved here in coming and helping israel and we know that the u. S. At times has been a player that is part of that conversation, and helping to broker some of those talks with some of these other countries that might be coming to their aid. So that is something that is ongoing and that they are still discussing. And then separately on that question of the active Shooter Incident that occurred earlier, im told by a u. S. Official that it is fair to call it a Terrorist Attack from their perspective. That their understanding is that the shooters have been at this point killed by police, that is coming from a u. S. Official, but that the israeli police would, of course, have more information on that separate attack on that report of the active Shooter Incident that was unfolding in israel as, of course, the president , the Vice President and international security officials are monitoring all of this and juggling all of it in real time right now. Andrea . Monica, thank you so much. David rhodes, all of these reports, it is the fog of war, we dont know how successful any of this has been in terms of Air Defenses. We dont know whether the jordanians are permitting shootdowns over their Air Space and last time they actually got involved in sending up their jets as well. They were tremendous help to the Israel And U. S. In april. There is pressure, this goes back to gaza and the humanitarian situation, over 42,000 palestinians having died In Gaza, according to health officials, jordan is under pressure to cooperate i just have an update. Yes. A text to me from a senior jordanian official telling me, yes, as we would any other missile flying over our Air Space, so jordan is not denying its Air Space to the u. S. Or to anyone else trying to shoot down missiles. Thats a huge step forward for israeli and the united states. That means that american aircraft, israeli aircraft can be intercepting these drones, they did that with hundreds, drones and missiles, hundreds of different drones and missiles that were fired in april. So you may have many of these missiles and drones being shot down over jordanian Air Space, the jordanians may have engaged in that. At the same time, senior jordanian officials said theyre under tremendous pressure from their population in jordan, egypt as well to improve the humanitarian situation In Gaza. That something needs to improve or jordan itself has to push ahead somehow to improve the humanitarian situation In Gaza. So i see a balance that the king of jordan is trying to strike here. And barry mccaffrey, are you still there . The proximity of jordan were talking about a battle of inches there, im told by a senior jordanian official that yes, they are permitting interceptions, shootdowns over their Air Space. How significant is that . We know very recently a month ago the first time a jordanian national attacked israeli guards at a crossing at the at the crossing in the West Bank. So potentially it has been extreme. All these Middle East countries have massive palestinian populations. Certainly jordan, lebanon, the egyptians and the saudis have been adamant about not wanting to touch any refugee palestinian Refugee Outflow for any reason. So, it is a very curious hypocritical political situation in which the arab governments have to watch the street for fear of being overthrown by their own people, but they have no Policy Inclination to really get involved in the war. Certainly the situation In Gaza is disgraceful that there is no Pan Arab Security And Peacekeeping force that would agree to go in and replace the idf and try to bring some Stability And Reconstruction to gaza. Never mind places like the West Bank, would be turned into some international security zone. So what were looking at right now, look, israel doesnt actually have a giant military establishment. Their Air Power is modest compared to the gigantic capabiliies of the u. S. Air force and naval air. So what they the israelis are counting on right now is assistance of allies and that certainly includes a sort of Background Level jordanians, but principally is involves the united states, with lookdown, Shootdown Aircraft coming off u. S. Navy carriers and u. S. Air force bases in the region. A perilous moment. It may well get worse, dramatically, and quickly. And right now the Idf Leader is saying they are not seeing any more incoming. Though we see some more missile defense, Air Defense right now as we speak. But he was suggesting i think moments ago that the they thought that wave was over. Keir simmons in doha, what are you reading from the iranians . Reporter were just here in qatar, across the water from iran, monitoring what the iranians are saying. It is there in New York. The iran mission to the United Nations that we have the latest messaging from tehran, if you like. Im going to read you some of the statement. It is interesting. Irans legal, rational and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist Regime, that is the opening of this statement, and what it suggests is that the iranians are trying to signal that they think what they have done is proportionate, others will judge, but this statement goes on to say, should the regime dare to respond sorry, just before this, it says the national sovereignty of the islamic republic of iran has been duly carried out. So duly carried out is the key part of the statement. It suggests that at least according to the iran mission to the United Nations that what we have seen from iran tonight is what we have seen from iran tonight. But it then does Go On, i was beginning to read that, it goes on to say, should the Zionist Regime dare to respond or commit further acts subsequent and crushing response will ensue. So, once again, andrea, we heard this from the revolutionary guard in iran and now from the iran mission to the United Nations, once again, iran threatening escalations, suggesting that if israel responds, then they will respond with more force. I think there is an interesting question there, just on pick, how much of that is iran is capable of because this again goes to the escalation. What we saw back in april, when iran launched its first attack on israel, the israelis then responded and one of the things they did was they hit a small amount of Irans Missile capabilities, so they hit a launch site. Now what that message from the israelis would have been is we are actually capable of knocking out your capability, and iranians will have seen that and heard that and they will be calculating Making Calculations there, so, in this whole kind of game of threatening escalation, if you like, it is worth reading between the lines what each side is truly capable of. And with the jordanians, your reporting that the jordanians were involved in shooting down these iranian missiles. The News Agency is reporting an official Military Source in the general command of the Jordanian Armed Forces of the arab army saying hundreds of iranian missiles were fired towards israel. Hundreds of iranian missiles according to that News Agency, talking to a member of the Jordanian Armed Forces, it says. And Erin Mclaughlin is back up in Tel Aviv, keir. About an hour ago, when the barrage first started, she went down into a shelter. Erin, tell us about what youve been seeing there from Tel Aviv. Reporter hi, andrea. Hi, andrea. We just heard from the israeli military spokesperson give a bit more detail about this attack from iran, saying that for now, there are no reports of wounded. And vowing revenge. Saying there will be repercussions to this attack. We have plans. For now were not identifying, though, more attacks from iran. He said we will operate at the time and place we decide. He said this was a more extensive attack on israel. Still unclear exactly how many missiles were fired from iran toward israel. In terms of what we saw here in jerusalem, the sirens sounded around 6 30. We were talking to you, andrea, when it happened. And thats when we saw just the lights from the interception missiles, from the Iron Dome, streak across the night sky. That was quickly followed by a series of explosions and booms as those Interceptor Missiles took down the missiles being fired from iran. It was a stunning display, i would say. We saw dozens of Interceptor Missiles and here in jerusalem, people are actually in the streets, they were cheering as their Iron Dome was working to protect the city. And you can also hear honking. It was an exceptional and stunning display, but, again, now were hearing from the spokesperson for the israeli military say that there are no reports of wounded for now. And hes saying there will be a response. But, of course, the Casualty Count here in israel, the kind of damage done will be undoubtedly a factor in Israels Response to this attack from iran. Andrea . Thank you, erin. John brennan is still with us. Erin is in jerusalem, looking at the background there, sorry i misspoke. John brennan, from what we have seen so far, is it too early to say how serious this attack is and how successful the israeli response has been . Well, the iranians are well known for their rhetorical saber rattling. I think we have seen some of that. It seems this was limited. Ballistic missiles that were fired at israel and that the israelis, others were able to intercept. And if there were no casualties, thats great. But the statement coming out of iran makes it appear as though at least this salvo they feel as though they have satisfied the need to respond to the israeli strikes against hezbollah. And so it may be just a repeat of what we saw in april. And israelis may feel they need to strike against iranian targets inside of iran because of these ballistic missile launches. But hopefully if there were no casualties on the ground in israel, this is not going to be the trigger that would lead to a quick escalation and spiraling of this. But clearly iran feels that it cannot just stand idly by while its proxies are going to be so destroyed and disrupted by israel. But also, i just want to point out, there are many, many reasons for the conflict and the violence that has beset the Middle East for generations. But i think we also can agree that it is the collective failure to provide the palestinians selfdetermination, that has been the case for the past 75 years, well continue to be a stimulant for this continued cycle of Violence And Conflict and even war. And so, it is just a very unfortunate that we continue to see that this one issue, one main issue, the palestinians, continues to be some of the principle reasons for why we see this continued cycle of violence that led to so many deaths, including innocent men, women and children on all sides. And, in fact, it is now been reported by Tom Winter and Monica Alba that there was an active Shooting Incident around the time that the missile strikes first began. The missiles were first fired, i should say. A shooter got off Mass Transit, started firing a semiautomatic rifle, an apparent Terror Attack according to israelis and u. S. Officials briefed on the matter. The initial Report Subject to change given this ongoing Security Situation, of course, is at eight individuals were killed, a number that may include the suspect or suspects. Nine individuals were wounded, according to one u. S. Official briefed on the attack in this note from Tom Winter and Monica Alba. And the nine people reported injureed are all believed to not be members of Law Enforcement or israeli security. Before i move on, and talk to you, some of our other guests, i want to ask you, john, from your perspective as a former Station Chief in Saudi Arabia, what is your analysis of what Saudi Arabia is doing right now . I think it is just watching and concerned that this is going to just blow up the region. And they have to be concerned given they have, you know, strong equities and interests across the area. And, you know, if the attack in Tel Aviv is a harbinger of additional types of Terrorist Attacks inside israel or outside, we could see a quick escalation of these tensions. So i do think Saudi Arabia and we already have seen there is some real concerns about what this could do to the flow of oil, energy supplies to the Middle East, because this does have the potential. Were right now in the midst of this conflict. We dont know what other chapters are going to play out, but there is going to be reverberations of this in the coming days, weeks, months and years that could be very, very profound and even change more the contours of politics inside the Middle East. And, of course, the houthis are in Saudi Arabia, in yemen, fighting some saudi forces. They have a tentative ceasefire there but they have been Firing Missiles at Tel Aviv and interrupting shipping in the red sea, international shipping, which affects the price of oil. John brennan, as you point out, this could all be dangerously interconnected. One of your former cia colleagues mark Po Polymeropoul is joining us now. This is combustible to say the least. I think this is something when we talked yesterday, andrea, i noted iran had a choice to make. Either kind of pursue a diplomatic Solution And Kind of allow hezbollah to recover and live to fight another day or to escalate. And i think they have chosen to a path which is really risky for them because hezbollah, which my kind of Comparison Yesterday was a forward Operating Base or Aircraft Carrier sitting on the border with israel, this was irans really guarantee that israel would not hit the iranian nuclear sites, well, that Aircraft Carrier is sinking and were talking about the escalation today, but dont forget, hezbollah is reeling and has been battered. What iran does not have apparently is that deterrent for hezbollah to Rain Missiles down israel if israel takes a shot at iran, perhaps the nuclear program. I think thats the thinking now. There was certainly discussion just a moment ago, thank god no Mass Casualty event in israel. That would certainly speed up some of the israeli decisionmaking, but i think israel is in a different state now. The israeli psyche, the israeli national Security Establishment are going to be much more willing to strike back against iran. Theyre not going to listen to calls to deescalate. They have not been from the united states. But this is a new era in terms of israeli thinking. They have momentum. They have a lot of confidence in their military, their intelligence establishment, and they certainly are not going to be cowed by the threats from the. A irgc. Joining us is jack jacobs, our veteran Military Analyst and recipient of the medal of honor. Jack, youve studied and taught at West Point and analyzed this region as well as many others. Talk to me about this matchup, israel versus iran, engaging directly now, iran Retaliating And Israel in lebanon now, again, something that neither the lebanese nor the israelis really wanted, but israel is propelled by the need to get their residents back into their homes after a year. Yeah. There are a lot of things at work here. One is the one you just mentioned, great deal of Domestic Pressure on netanyahu to clear the Area North of the border so that people can return to their homes in Northern Israel. If this is a reprieve, the attack of iran on israel now, is this a reprise of what happened in april, probably one can conclude that iran would like it to be exactly the same. Think about what would happen if the Iron Dome did not intercept a large number of missiles coming from iran, missiles did land on built up areas. There were a lot of casualties in israel. That would certainly drive the engagement to the next higher and much more deadly Level And One has to believe that iran does not want to do that. They do not want to engage israel and certainly dont want to engage israel in a lot larger more violent conflict, especially since the united states recently moved large numbers of additional air assets, both on the sea and on air bases into the region. So, the likelihood, not certain, but the likelihood is that there will be a reprise of what happened last april and that iran has to demonstrate that it can retaliate if it wants, and has just done so. There may be other waves of attacks. But to the extent that iran believes that the israeli defenses will be able to intercept them and there wont be mass casualties on israeli soil, they will be satisfied probably at having done what they need to do. The second thing revolves around the israeli incursion into tactically into lebanon. You know, they got two divisions there, as you heard from general mccaffrey. One we believe is already on the ground inside lebanon. You have to try to picture the terrain there, it is cross compartmented, a lot of hills and valleys. And that kind of terrain is much more positive for the defense than for the attackers. And as a result, you need a fairly substantial Attacking Force on the ground if youre going to go into that area. Even if the objective of the israelis is to go in ten kilometers, 15 kilometers, to secure a buffer zone, it is still going to require substantial number of troops. The second thing is that it always takes more troops on the ground to hold on to objectives than it does to take them in the first place. That means that those two divisions are liable if not likely to be there for quite some time. The israelis, this is a very costly thing for the israelis. It means that reserves have to be called up to the great detriment of both the people involved, the Israeli Citizenry and the economy. So that can Go On for only so long. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be this counterattack by iran will be end of it for the time being, but there is no doubt about the fact that israel will be keeping people on the ground, in lebanon, for quite some time, andrea. And theyre still on the ground In Gaza to a lesser extent than originally, but they still have some brigades there. They are challenged in the West Bank. So, potentially they have got a war on three sides with all of the hostility that is erupting. There have been at least one incident that we know of with eight people debt, nine people wounded, we dont know whether the people who were killed include the suspect or suspects in an attack that involved someone getting off Mass Transit with a rifle, a Shooting Incident outside Tel Aviv. So we dont know if thats coordinated, if thats just a target of opportunity or if there are going to be more Terror Attacks on the ground as there had been inside israel for decades, and, of course, the economy, as you point as you point out, has been tanking since the horrible massacre on October 7th that started all of this and the war In Gaza that ensued. You know, joe brought up a point. I think it was sort soft echoed by something that mr. Burn said and that is the Inability Or Refusal of the arab countries in the region to take any part whatsoever in alleviating both the difficulties of the palestinians on the one hand and the existential threats to israel on the other. Those countries have done absolutely nothing to assist in bringing down the level of violence in the region and it remains to be scene whether or not they will continue to do, to the extent they continue not being directly involve in their own interests and the interests of everybody in the region. You will see more and more of this and it may at some point spiral out of control. Raf sanchez joins us near the border of lebanon. What have you seen from your Vantage Point there . Reporter so just a little over an hour and 15 minutes ago, we got this one Line Message from the israeli military saying that missiles had been launched from iran towards this country. And i would say ten minutes or so later, we saw these streaking, deadly Shooting Stars lighting up the skies here. Just missile after missile after missile heading towards the center of this country, towards Tel Aviv. We are just South Of The Border with lebanon. So as we look south towards the middle of this country, we could see that was where this iranian Missile Fire was concentrated and rising up to meet these incoming missiles, wave after wave of israeli Iron Dome interceptions. We saw some of those missiles breaking up high in the night sky. Others seemed to slip their way past the Iron Dome. Its hard to tell from where we are up here, but they seemed to make their way, crashing down towards the earth in the Central Israel area. Now, that continued in what appeared to be two waves maybe ten minutes apart. Not enough time for anyone to breathe easy. The many, many millions of israelis who were running to bomb shelters. But then in just the last Half Hour or so, the chief spokesman of the israeli military returning to national television telling the public here that israel does not detect any more incoming ariel threats. Saying that at this point, there are no reports of any fatalities caused by this enormous barrage of missiles. That is the message that we are hearing echoed from Israels Emergency services. They are saying they have reports of two minor injuries in the Tel Aviv area as a result of shrapnel so an interception overhead. Shrapnel falling to earth. People cut by those pieces of falling medal, but at this time, it does appear that the iranian Missile Attack on israel launched in response according to the iranian regime to israels killing of Hezbollahs Leader nasrallah on friday. The leader of irans largest, most powerful Proxy Group in the Middle East. It does appear this Missile Attack has not caused any fatalities inside of israel. Now, i should stress it is still early. There are Israeli Search Teams who are driving through the night right now looking, trying to find where these missiles came down. Looking to any indication that people were hurt or killed but at this point, there are no reports of serious injuries as a result. Now, the israeli military is saying this attack will have consequences. Back in april when iran fired a barrage of some 300 ballistic missiles, Cruise Missiles and drones, the overwhelming majority of them were shot down by both israeli Air Defenses but also by american and European Forces deployed across the Middle East. It does seem tonight that a higher proportion of the incoming projectiles were iranian ballistic missiles. It takes just 12 minutes or so for them to travel from iran to israel. It appears that there had been a higher number of impacts. The, one of the key factors as prime Minister Netanyahu, the senior leadership of israels military decides how, when, and at what scale to respond to this iranian attack will be the level of damage inside israel. That is something that is being assessed right now and you can expect israel will begin forming its response in the next coming hours. Andrea, we have been talking for 11 long months now since October 7th about the possibility of an all Out Regional War involving not just israel and hamas but israel and iran. Israel and its regional proxies and tonight, less than 24 hours after israeli Ground Forces crossed the border into Southern Lebanon just some two miles behind me or so, we have seen this enormous barrage of iranian missiles. I can tell you the region certainly feels closer than it has on any of the historic nights weve lived through since October 7th to all Out Regional War. Andrea. And raf, the community youre in has been right in the eye of the storm with all this developing around it. Has this area been evacuated . Is that one of the communities that was evacuated on October 8th when the Hezbollah Firing started in consolidation with hamas . Reporter thats right. It is one of the many Ghost Towns that you drive through in Northern Israel. We are not as far north as some of the other smaller communities like metula which are wedged right up against the border with lebanon so close that before October 7th, residents would tell you quite calmly that they could see hezbollah fighters moving around on the other side of the border. But this is an area that is largely been evacuated. The streets are quiet as you drive through. We watched for many long minutes as those iranian missiles headed towards Central Israel. The sirens did not go off here until after it appeared that the iranian Missile Barrage in two waves had finished and that seems to be but just based on the trajectory of the Iron Dome Missile Intercepter that we were able to see fired just before, might be able to hear. There was just a boom behind me. That is the sound of outgoing Israeli Artillery Fire aimed at hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon. An israeli official tells me that when israeli forces crossed over the border into Southern Lebanon last night, that was israeli forces in the low hundreds who went over, who were part of that ground offensive. Israel continues to insist that its Ground Operation in Southern Lebanon is limited and it is targeted, but i can tell you as we drove around Northern Israel earlier today, we could see columns of israeli tanks which raises the worrying question that a israeli operation, which started outlimit could grow into something much larger. As we approach October 7th, you were the only correspondent on the ground at the music festival. You saw the horror of that massacre. You reported i think nonstop for 48 hours to my memory. On that saturday about 5 00 or 6 00 a. M. On the East Coast and for hours and hours and so im just thinking of what your thoughts must be just about a year later. This is the continuation of the explosion in the Middle East and the region that united states and its allies have been trying to desperately to avoid. Reporter andrea, weve lived through many historic nights since October 7th. This is certainly one of them. It is only the second time in the 40years that theyve directly attacked israel in an open acknowledged strike once they aimed at another. We certainly feel closer to all out war than we have on any other night since October 7th. And i can tell you, andrea, we have also, we also feel further away from the prospects of a Cease Fire. You have heard President Biden repeating over and over again he wants to see a Cease Fire between israel and hezbollah. Here on israels northern border but frankly, he has wanted to see a Cease Fire between israel and hamas for many, many months now. Thats another loud, outgoing Israeli Artillery Round just punctuating how far we are from a Cease Fire at this point. The reality is at this point, you have a Lame Duck american president who is calling for a Cease Fire and you have a region that feels like its spiraling out of control. Andrea. Thank you so much, raf. Im just thinking on this 100th Birthday of jimmy carter, my first assignment for nbc news was all those years ago during Camp David and the signing of the first peace agreement
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