Your people back into their homes, you dont escalate to deescalate. And obviously now, with the iranian retaliation, israelis are in their shelters as they go into the new years holiday weekend. Ben . Yeah. I think, you know, since October 7th, the Biden Administration has had a number of goals, one was to provide support to israel as it aims to go after hamas, but then also one of the principle goals of u. S. Diplomacy since October 7th had been avoiding deescalation into lebanon, precisely because i think there was an understanding that lebanon could be kind of the Trip Wire to this broader regional war that essentially, you know, it is one thing if there is a conflict In Gaza, that alone is destabilizing enough and is obviously brought a tremendous Human Toll and has grinded on for a full year. But the concern has always been that if israel launched a Ground Operation and significantly escalated things in lebanon that could draw iran into a conflict in a direct way as were seeing tonight and that israel might be compelled to respond against iran and then suddenly the whole region could light up because youre dealing with lebanon, where there could be internal conflicts, and obviously a longer term israeli presence. Youre dealing with proxy forces like the houthis in yemen, iraq is a place that the u. S. Always watches carefully for potential escalation. We have enormous diplomatic presence and troops there. And so the concern has always been if the whole region catches the fire that has been burning In Gaza, and kind of in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon, we could see what were seeing now. And, again, im struck by the fact that these are ballistic missiles. The last iranian attack on israel felt almost calibrated with drones and with other longer missiles that took longer to reach their targets to kind of send a message without trying to escalate things. This feels, you know, like the kind of thing that is going to compel an israeli response at the same time theyre in lebanon this is what the administration i think had been seeking to avoid for the last year. And david, we talk about the region, the Shia Militias In Iraq are of great threat to u. S. Forces there. The iraqis under pressure from iran were demanding the exit of all u. S. Forces, that hasnt taken place yet, but they have been drawing down. This is a pivotal moment for the Biden Administration. One of their goals they have told some of our colleagues on nbc is to try to prevent this kind of regional war from erupting in the Middle East between now and november 5th, to show the Biden Harris Administration can deliver stability. The killing of the leader of hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, which shocked many people, the success of the israeli Air Strikes in addition to killing him, they killed multiple other leaders, taken out large arms depots, that compelled iran to respond as theyre doing right now. And it is what ben said, how does israel respond to this . If one missile gets through, or two, and dozens of israeli civilians are killed in these attacks that are happening right now, there will be tremendous pressure on prime Minister Netanyahu to then retaliate against iran. So, again, this is a grave moment, historic moment, we have to see how events play out. And, ben rhodes, to follow up on that, youve been in the White House in these kinds of circumstances, difficult circumstances, during your eight years in the obama administration. This is exactly what the administration did not want to happen five weeks from an election. Yeah. I mean that opens up all kinds of issues as we see the lack of stability in the Middle East. Yeah. I mean, i think there are multiple concerns. Obviously the initial concern is the safety of the people that are under bombardment now in israel. Also the risk of scenes of Chaos And Violence and further loss of life in lebanon. And the ways in which this could escalate. And just to bring other concerns into it, you know, the middle East Kind of erupts in chaos, that drives up Energy Prices as well. Something that is obviously already, you know, been of Grave Concern to the american electorate. And there are all these other Wild Cards too. Looking out, you know, several weeks, what happens with the iranian nuclear program, which is now no longer under any international monitoring or verification. As iran lost some of the capability that they saw in hezbollah and lebanon, do they feel like they need to make a move in the direction of pursuing a nuclear weapon . What happens to kind of the stability of governments like jordan that have been under a lot of pressure from their own domestic populations and so anytime you War Game this, you know, without giving too much detail in the White House, there really is a Chain Reaction that can get set off here. In lebanon often is a part of the Middle East where those kind of Chain Reactions can get set off. Because there are so many different parties that have interests there, that are active there, it is not kind of contained in the same way that gaza is, because it brings in these iranian interests, brings in different kinds of regional sentiment, and so, again, i think we are watching that scenario that has a potential to be, you know, above all, tragic for the people in the Cross Fire in the Middle East, but, yes, youre right, in terms of the political calendar for there to be an escalating war in the Middle East in october is certainly not, you know, anything that i would like to separate these issues from politics, but inevitably Donald Trump will say there is chaos, ill end the chaos, in his Strongman Message will be his answer to this, and here, the best politics for Biden Harris Administration is better Policy Outcomes and im sure thats what theyll be working towards and frantically in the days ahead. And, of course, this attack, the successful attack against hezbollah, against nasrallah, the pagers, the covert operations, the elimination Of Haniyeh has all really improved the popularity dramatically inside israel of benjamin netanyahu. And politics is never really far from the torturous politics of the israeli cabinet. I want to bring in keir simmons, again, in doha, and who has been talking to people about the iranian response. How are they calibrating their response, keir . Well, andrea, let me just bring you a little bit of news that we are just watching and this is from the irgc, the iranian revolutionary guard, who people who know iran will know will be the partner the wing of the iranian establishment that will be operating this attack on israel. What the irgc are saying tonight, just been saying this, is that they and were getting reports from our own iran team and this is being reported across the region one report saying the irgc says it fired Tens Of Missiles, Tens Of Missiles and then that it says should the israeli regime respond to irans operation, it will face crushing attacks, implying perhaps the attacks will be stronger. I think that message is interesting for two reasons. It goes to the conversation you just have been having about the danger of escalation. The irgc saying we have attacked, and we will if israel responds, we will attack again, and we will be that attack will be stronger. But that also, that message tonight, from the iranian revolutionary guard suggests that it is indicating that this isnt the full force of irans capability, that it hasnt launched, if you want to describe it this way, you know, a fullthroated attack. There will be others analyzing the details of what iran actually did to assess whether that really is the case, and the extent to which this was a limited attack, if it was, and the extent to which israels allies were the key factor here in preventing the attack or answering the attack. The missiles in the air over the region in the past few hours. The irgc, andrea, also saying that this was in response to the martyrdom Of Haniyeh, the leader of hamas, who, as you know, was assassinated in tehran. And also to the killing of nasrallah, the leader of hezbollah. And also to the killing of the head of the Jerusalem Brigade in lebanon. In response, the irgc says we targeted the heart of the occupied territories. And Matt Bradley in beirut, what are you seeing there, in the skies over beirut . Reporter this is something that i believe and im speculating here, but i believe it is entirely separate to what were seeing elsewhere in the Middle East, were seeing hundreds of rounds of Tracer Fire coming out of the southern area of beirut. I dont know exactly where that is coming from. It is coming from just beyond that building, but before the ridge line. So it doesnt look like it is coming from beyond the City Limits or beyond the suburbs of southern beirut. But it does look as though this is probably not, because of where it is coming from, aimed at intercepting anything. Of course, the lebanese wouldnt be intercepting anything and there wouldnt be any overflight of those iranian ballistic missiles here so far north in beirut. It does look as though it is firing from the Southern District or southern areas of beirut at some sort of possibly a drone that has been flying overhead. All day, and the past several days we have been Hearing Drones flying around. We also have been seeing in the last hour several flashes, which looks like the continuation of what we have been seeing again for the past two weeks, which is israel pounding over and over again the southern areas of beirut and the southern suburbs of beirut, all of those places, Shia Muslim majority areas, Hezbollah Strongholds, and now subject to increased expanded israeli bombardment as israel expands its fight against hezbollah in just the past two weeks. So, now, of course, we also have been hearing and seeing here that new incursion over the border that happened overnight. This is all indications of israels expanded attacks against hezbollah. When we talk about hezbollah and iran, the connection between the two is so intimate. Really hezbollah here is the Cats Paw for the iranian regime when it comes to fighting against israel. It has been historically the strongest group of all. There are all these different groups that make up the socalled Axis Of Resistance that are antithetical to israel and some of the sunni Gulf Monarchies in the gulf, but at the same time, this hezbollah, is the strongest, it has the most weapons, it has the best organization, and ideologically and spiritually it is the closest connected to iran. In its founding chart, hezbollah has it basically declared fealty to iran, iran helped to found it in the early 80s. It has the same tenets that they practice, this notion of a hierarchical religious ideology that is somewhat unique to shiaism within the muslim world. When were talking about hezbollah, more than any of the other groups that are in the orbit of the Axis Of Resistance that are backed by iran in the Middle East, hezbollah is the closest and thats why the death of Hassan Nasrallah on friday in an israeli bombardment as well as as keir mentioned a senior member of the irgc, the islamic revolutionary guard corps, this is one of the main groups in iran that is responsible for Funding And Recruiting and basically upkeep and political cover for all of the different members of the Axis Of Resistance, whether in yemen, the houthis, hamas, in the gaza strip, or some of these shiite groups backed by Iran And Syria and iraq. So this is why you see such a strong connection and why one of the things that keir mentioned, one of the Acts Of Vengeance that the irgc is taking tonight with these ballistic missiles fired at israel is because of those twin killings here in beirut on friday, in the same huge Bombing Right over my right shoulder. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the head of hezbollah and another senior irgc commander, both of these have created this atmosphere and this feeling of vengeance along with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh months ago that the iranians still have not accounted for, they still havent taken the vengeance that they claimed that they would have. Were seeing that tonight. So as far as the iranians are concerned, this is the moment to strike, and here you can actually hear it, there is gunshots. You can hear. Thats not fighting in the streets. Im going to make a leap and assume that thats celebratory gunfire happening in the neighborhood of dahia, this Hezbollah Stronghold in the south of beirut, celebratory gunfire as people are seeing, i think thats what this is, as people are seeing the iranian attack against israel. Andrea . And david rhodes, nasrallah started with study as a schooler in iran. He had that background which he brought to creating hezbollah out of the Civil War In Lebanon in the early 80s. Richard engel, our colleague is apparently reporting that so far at least, we see some more antiaircraft fire over Tel Aviv, that the defenses have so far worked very well. There have been no Mass Casualty s according to engle. Is it does look like another wave is starting right now, david. Lets just talk about the military matchup here. Obviously iran has an enormous military force. They have been moderating in what they did in april, that was pointed out that there were Cruise Missiles. Not the fast flying ballistic missiles that are so much more devastating and harder to defend against, but u. S. Has a lot of firepower and defensive weapons in the region. It does. It was the u. S. The u. S. Played a major role in april when the iranian attack essentially failed. It is a tremendously positive sign for the idf, for the israeli military, that there have been no Mass Casualty events. My colleague is texting me saying this will continue in waves, this isnt over yet. The iranians have learned from april. I would say there has been a lot of criticism of the Idfs Performance in terms of the number of palestinians killed In Gaza, but, again, what was achieved on the strikes in lebanon killing nasrallah, specifically the iranian revolutionary guard has said these strikes are in revenge for his killing, but the israeli attacks in lebanon have been very successful, much more successful in disrupting hezbollah, getting rid of the leadership, and if the Iron Dome does perform well, thats a tremendous statement again for the israeli military that helps prime Minister Netanyahu. But we just dont know yet. This could continue. It is far too early to say. General barry mccaffrey, retired four star general, of course, who has taught at West Point and knows this region so well, barry mccaffrey, general, tell us how you view the matchup here so far. It is very difficult to say, because we dont know exactly what theyre throwing at Tel Aviv, but it does seem there has been confirmation that ballistic missiles were involved. Yeah, well, i would assume that the iranians will not target in this attack israeli urban areas. Theyre going after military bases. Many of which are out in the desert environments and would be unlikely to sustain serious casualties, even to the military. We also need to be concerned, though that the iranians in april fired 120 ballistic missiles at israel of which nine did get through and struck two military bases. So that Air Defense Capability of israel, short range Iron Dome, medium david slings, long Range Arrow three, works brilliantly, but not perfectly. So there is a clear risk that an iranian serious strike, which is sustained for days, could cause serious damage on the ground. I think the other thing we got to look at, the israelis have two divisions up on the northern border, they just called up four more br