A bearish cycle for the Worlds Largest cryptocurrency weve got a lot to get to on a very busy day so lets get started. And we begin with fears that in fact there will be no phase one trade agreement between the u. S. And china at least not this year and those fears are translating into lower economic forecasts for not just the u. S. And china but really for Global Economic growth the organization for Economic Cooperation and development said on thursday that the Global Economy is now at risk of settling into a quote low growth rut the o. E. C. D. Has now lowered its forecast for Global Economic growth in 2020 to 2. 9 percent from the 3 percent expected in september meanwhile the c. E. O. Said thursday that members of the g 20 continue to impose restrictions on imports in the 6 months through october with new measures affecting 460400000000. 00 in goods kristie as we do each day lets talk about this because 1st of all as we mentioned on wednesday right there is talk to. This phase one deal between the u. S. And china may not get done this year which really isnt a big surprise it would take what about 5 weeks for a deal to be signed and were already up against it based on where we are in terms of the calendar but even though you know that would be assuming everything is ready to go right now but it seems like both sides u. S. And china are further apart than theyre pretending exactly and this is as you said like it would take certainly a long time and the markets really shouldnt be surprised by this so the markets go down worldwide today it was yesterday because everything seems further apart than ever but the thing is like we were never close to phase one to begin with nothing has changed the narrative has not changed since i was even earlier this march furthermore everyone now theyre looking at the december 15th deadline because thats really the backstop for the entire phase one deal right now thats the backstop and thats a leverage at present time currently has and right now analysts are saying that if this tariff goes into place that will be tariffs upon 156000000000. 00 worth of goods and for the 1st time ever this will affect consumer goods and electronics joyfully because both sides keep sounding like phase one is close were almost there beijing say well what meetings will make make this happen like were going to get it together well get it done but then as they talk about it the closer they seem to get the more they kind of up the terms of what they want china keep saying is well we want even more terror of software than a drum keeps a. Higher tariff if we dont get it done so even granting hong kong as well. Leverage and as a pawn in the entire thing theyre saying that oh if you dont sign phase one then we will sign the hong kong bill into law yes so its one threat to another will i guess well see what happens and now this relation discontinuous thats right back to march 2009. Suntrust and b. B. And t. Received approval from regulators to form americas 6 Largest Commercial Bank this is the biggest bank merger since 2000 a crisis and the combined company will serve 10000000 consumer households with 330000000000 in deposits b. B. And t. A taker bt and sun trust taker s. T. I. Will phase out their brands over the next 2 years as they combine. Entity will be known as truest once the deal closes true us will begin trading on the n. Y. S. E. Undertaker t. F. C. The merger faced criticism from senator Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters who have been supporting for the breakup a big banks and big tech however regulators voted in favor of the merger citing that recent regulations have reduced the risk of a mega bank failure of the likes of citibank and indy mac. In 08. The consolidation and mergers are the state of play these days with Companies Getting hitched left and right in order to cut hefty capital costs exploit synergies and process optimizations companies are doing all they can to drive efficiencies now in the face of a slowing economy and the trade war headwinds so to cut down on the latest brain n. T. T. Watkins director of stocks at Simpler Trading so we all remember what happened in 08 when giants like citi group they were required an epic bailout to save them so with the creation of this giant are there concerns of a potential risk to Financial Stability and in the event of a failure who would be big enough to acquire them. Well you know what i really Pay Attention to is we say that history doesnt repeat itself but it sure and so Something Like this if there is going to be a problem in the future its not going to be like 2008 where it was the financial mortgage subprime housing loan issue its going to be Something Different thats what were going to have to Pay Attention to we dont know where its going to be if theres going to be Something Like that as far as with this merger you know we hope that its going to be good for everyone involved to expand the community to bring Better Services to them and really if we start seeing them fail i dont think the question should be you know who is big enough to acquire them or bail them out i think is a free markets country we should be saying if they ran their business poorly and it got to this point to where they cant sustain it or they read the current wrong or they just arent doing it right then we let the free market do what it does and if they fail so im off work. Yard sale and pick up the pieces and usually when that happens they come back stronger and better and no more of this too big to fail stuff if you fail then thats on you also speaking of monster consolidations or mergers Charles Schwab in talks to buy t. D. Ameritrade for a total of 5 trillion dollars thats trillion with a t. In combined assets this is in the face of that mounting threat on 2 fronts really right cryptocurrency s. And disruptor such as robin hood betterment and wealth they all have 0 commissions so give us your take on this 25000000000. 00 deal and do you think that any of the other guys in this space are also looking to kind of merging create these monster companies. Will kind of like we were talking about earlier with the streamlining and trying to make bigger efficiencies through Bigger Companies i wouldnt be surprised if we see some other mergers especially coming from those disruptors maybe some of the bigger names actually want to bring those disrupters on and say hey lets bring your new age your New Territory of people and subscribers on board and personally as me as a trader i really like t. D. Ameritrade i like their Trading Platform and to have them come together which. It sounds actually like a pretty good situation you know and what were looking at when i called Charles Schwab after they announced this i called and spoke to one of their representatives and they said you know we really dont make a lot of our money from commissions and so they said you know if were having trouble is if our bottom line isnt doing very well from a lack of commissions were doing something wrong and so not having any commissions in this race to the bottom as everybody is talking about i dont think its really that big of a deal their money is made elsewhere and really how many people does this effective says traders but i think to the standard most people its you know 4 or 5. 00 that they dont have to pay now every once in a while and real quick if theyre not making the money on commissions where are they making it from. Well they have a whole lot of other fees they have Management Fees they have assets under management similar to how a bank how they take your money and they actually loan it out and then they make money off of your money thats sitting in the bank thats how robinhood thats how betterments thats how Charles Schwab they make money from your money on deposit theres something similar to go you know we have our banking and our transactions that are for free will its because any money that we have on deposit there theyre using elsewhere to make interest off of and so they give us the benefit of having the transactions for free and all that works well and great when youre in a bull market but come one failure come one day fall and theyre in serious trouble now over and retail another struggling sector ellaby it may just still pursuing to close to phonies and its racist now to 16000000000. 00 from its earlier bid at 14500000000. 00 so tiffany plans to continue to negotiate for a better offer offering arguing that it is still being undervalued the current offer now raises the price tag to 130. 00 per share so where do you think this would end up and whats your baseline of a fair value given that tiffanys is a classic brand equity and you have tremendous name recognition there. Well coming from just the charts in the stock look at that tiffany would would be well poised to actually take that offer leave aton stock has been doing great for a long time and tiffany is had a high of 140. 00 and with this offer it now brings up 230. 00 so you know just looking from that with the numbers it seems to make sense and i dont know how much higher they could go as far as the offer now what it comes down to i think is more of the intangible where were looking at what is the name recognition of tiffany its been around for a long time its a solid its a solid name a lot of people know of it has a good reputation and i think it comes down to is lou bhutan do they really want that name and do they want that kind of clientele that comes with it and they might just have to pay more to have that kind of name recognition for such a long time and bring it on board and that way the 2. 00 of them actually maybe are Better Together in the big picture in the long run. And then finally we have this other dying segment we got to talk about here printing and paper business ulit packard just rejected as iraqs offer saying that it undervalued the business and that given the weak Balance Sheet as iraqs potential synergies will be difficult to extract h. P. Is already in the middle of a massive restructuring and well lets face it theyre struggling to stay relevant here so with the combination you think of 2 failing businesses results in a win the or one now big or failing business. Yeah thats got a fight hey look at that and this was interesting when i was looking at it you know xeroxs market cap is about one 3rd of h. P. s so in a way this looks like its david trying to buy it and not only that david is looking pretty aggressive like that theres been talks of hostile takeovers. Through just purchasing up all the stock in shares and so this is kind of an interesting thing it is he said kind of a 2 old businesses that are trying to stay relevant are duking it out with each other you know h. P. Is really trying to revamp itself it is trying to restructure they are trying to cut costs and theyre in the middle of this process for that and i think that maybe coming from a very side of the table to thinking hey were trying to figure this out you know we we want to go through this 1st and how do you come in here and try to take us over when were in the middle of trying to better ourselves and so its a little bit confusing and it should be interesting to watch as these kind of fireworks happen between the 2 stocks the 2 companies yeah its kind of like watching a slow motion dinosaur fight a walk and specter of stocks similar driving thanks so much. Thank you. It is the end of an era Hedge Fund Legend lewis bacon has decided to shutter more capital after several years of poor returns at his various funds hes returning capital to investors after 30 years and converting into Family Office the end of more capital now is a significant mark on the entire Hedge Fund Industry bacon is known as one of the best traders of his generation alongside Paul Tudor JonesGeorge Soros John paulson and bill ackman he rose to fame with his macro bets in the 1990 s. When he correctly called the collapse of the European ExchangeRate Mechanism and when Saddam Hussein would invade kuwait a bet that yielded his fund 86 percent return through last year more capital had made 18300000000. 00 for investors since inception making it the 15th most profitable hedge fund of all times but the Hedge Fund Industry has been facing increasingly challenging markets thanks to persistently low Interest Rates and the takeover of quantum bots running the show allocation has been difficult as long shorts struggle to raise capital amid mediocre performance. All right so i know that youre all about this i will let you take the floor because youre listing off this list of names here like Paul Tudor Jones george soros. But i know it sounds like the legend of doom is what it comes off like but in terms of the Hedge Fund Operations on the technical side take the moral side out of it go it but also right now the Hedge Fund Industry is facing tremendous pressure because right now i feel like theres this entire flow into the private market and thats what were really seeing allocation has been so difficult for all of these long choice because of the fact that simply there is no there is no beta in the market everything is correlated to each other theres absolutely no data to be extracted from it absolutely no alpha to be extracted excuse me and every single longs for is personally chasing the same trades over and over again and so theres this tremendous reallocation over into the private market into the v cs and thats also partially why were seeing Companies Stay private longer and then when youre when youre talking about the business side of it and you remove the emotional side out of it theyve had Great Success but when youre talking about people who have made Great Success betting on the war betting on the destruction of people groups betting on the collapse of Financial Systems which leaves people in poverty and watches their savings go away just feels kind of kind of gross to call that successful but again. It does it does but it is it is just a business like like all business as it is what you do youre not the instigating anything its more so youre trying to make a call youre trying to actually make a prediction and for the and for those hedge funds not only are they making a prediction correctly in the marketplace they forecast but theyre also giving people warning theyre warning the market of what could potentially happen what are the repercussions if we do go to what are the repercussions if we do lets say start a trade war with china again like this is what the market does its an indicator of future events if we continue down the same path. Lets leave it there time now for a quick break but hang in there because on the other side of this break big oil is falling as we approach the end of the year so heres the thing is there time for it to turn around or are we going to go back into this bearish cycle that really lets face it nobody wants for the Worlds Largest group of currency and as we go to break here are the numbers at the close. The tense situation in venezuela is still all over the news the problem in venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented but that socialism has been faithfully implement inside venezuela things move different were going to announce sanctions against petroleum to venezuela associate the famous good to have a son of a moment too soon to move them but some tackle football that it assumes that the keep the magic at the moment the focus of the who story isnt new makes him cold in Henry Kissinger to tell him that it would not be tolerated in latin america. Terms of economic and social system could take hold and therefore the policy would be to make the chilean economy scream so wants and making the economy of venezuela scream. Seemed wrong but all quotes just dont call. Me to blow me yet to shape out this day to come to advocate and indeed from an equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart. Just to look for common ground. He still got you into too tight haven t. Thats who could sneak. Over. To discredit. You. And who will never think about anything out of your canadian each of them till monogamous all. Read too much haha get to be a good tone crystal under your gum or for me to get out of her affair when im in the good children tell him with all that you can fire one next time you dont come. With a new. Well we have had a dramatic moment for big support for the living cryptocurrency has dropped to a 4 week low and is now below 8000. And dropping this is significant because the question really is about whether big going continues in this bearish market or it breaks out into a bull run coming into the end of this year it is worth mentioning that the slide that coin is in right now when i wrote the script its below 797500. 00 big point has erased 80 percent of the rally in the 2nd half of october which carry big going from around 7200 to over 10000 as of today because of the most all coins are way in the red so as we head into the new year what is the outlook joining this is just really good cochief Investment Officer. And terror capital thanks for being here so if we look back over recent history because it has done pretty well in november and 6 out of the last 8 years right from 2012 to 2017 november was a month of gains b