Sunday morning for the. Good morning I'm on Am and f.m. Around the u.k. On. I'm Roger Sharpe and were up all night and in this hour of the program in the election Adam and Laura look into election related relationship or words if your favorite other is kind of involved with the other party and elsewhere we're going to take a look at a tragedy for k. Pop in which 2 members of the same group have taken their own lives and in election news a major new poll a major in terms of the sample size gives the Conservatives a substantial lead. And the polling organization you Gov are making much of the fact that they got quite close to calling the result of the 2017 general election and they have a new sampling approach which they say gives some remarkable confidence and it takes in. A large number of people so it gives the Conservatives a Commons majority of a road and 68 and a national lead of 11 percentage points over Labor the big deal is that more than 100000 people or a question for this poll whereas in other polls sample size a much smaller of course it is just an opinion poll a much smaller survey carried out by Congress puts the conservatives still ahead of Labor Orly by 7 percentage points but still that is 7 percentage points Here's our political correspondent Nick hardly You Gov interview just over 100000 people over the past week about their voting intentions before then using a model to predict individual constituency results the poll indicates the conservatives are on course for a comfortable majority picking up just over 40 seats with Labor losing about 50 giving the Tories a majority of $68.00 it also suggests the s.n.p. Will pick up further seats in Scotland where the Lib Dems will add just one to their tally from 2017 it is only one poll which should be treated with caution not least because of a wide margin of error and the fact there are 2 weeks left in the campaign other surveys however have also pointed to the 2 lead although in some cases the gap with Labor seems to have been closing this morning a much smaller calm race poll for The Daily Telegraph pits the conservative 7 points ahead of Labor compared with 11 in the You Gov poll well in a couple minutes we're going to hear from the b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert cuffed 1st of all Chris Carter's political research manager You Gov and I asked Chris what the data appears to reveal about the current state of voting intentions. What we can say on current polling is that the most likely outcome is a Conservative majority of $68.00 there's always a margin of error in the margin of error on this is a very small conservative majority of under 10 a very large majority of of over 100 but the most likely outcome on current polling is a majority of 68 The other thing to bear in mind is that we are still nearly 2 weeks out over 2 weeks out from the General Election Day And of course while this can capture where things currently are we don't know how things might move over the period of time of course none of us are very good as statisticians you know unless we are statisticians but what is your sample size for this because some of your samples are are fairly big some of your samples are not so big are they so in the traditional pall of this day you're speaking to somewhere between a fall into 2000 people now this is a much more complicated what we call an r.p. Model so we're not just doing a show actually we've interviewed over 100000 people in the past 7 days now that allows us not just to look at the national vote but look at how all of the different types and groups of people and the country is ait's in with us yeah young people with degrees or old people who didn't go to university and live in a particular part of the country and allows us to come up with the see estimates in fact allows us to come up with an estimate for all of the 632 great British States . And you know we all get frankly beat the over the head by our bosses who say don't give a new way to any one poll but I'm looking back a list of all the polls that's been held in the van I can see anybody that sampled one 100000 people I mean you you sample that 11000 people back in the the whatever it was the 20 something of November but is that right I mean there's nobody else doing on this scale you know this is I mean as far as I'm aware this one of the biggest pieces of research that my company has ever conducted and you know probably one of the biggest pieces of research has ever been conducted interesting intention in the u.k. Now the ways the reason we're doing this is because we think it's really important in this election and in fact any election and in fact if you take the issue of breaks it for example an issue which is going to affect generations to come in all of these things is really important to listen to to represent and to reflect what the British public I think what we've done here is conduct as one of our best biggest pieces of research ever so that we can so that we can we can try and accurately do. So here with what we've said that you've recorded the consent of the majority or potential Conservative majority of 68 what is our represent in percentage of the vote share so we currently got 11 point conservative late so that's the conservatives pretty much on the same vij they won in 2017 in the late forty's 43 percent labor down quite considerably on the $27000.00 votes that currently sitting at 32 percent the Liberal Democrats have increased nearly doubled it a colony on 14 percent However despite that increase in by They've still only managed to gain a single seat. Well the Liberal Democrats showing higher earlier in the month I mean look at some polls here that have them up that he has won b.m.g. Had them up 18 percent yesterday by the 1st of November you know one of the big interesting things about this campaign is just how difficult the Liberal Democrats have found it they started this campaign on the round of Fed of the vote among 3 main voters just now got dropped down to a quarter as Labor has started to squeeze about Spock and unfortunately for them we don't have any good news for them tonight Eva it's showing even though they're still up on the 2017 down the start the campaign but still up on the 2017 and not don't seem at this stage at least to be doing a good job of trance translating those extra votes into extra seats. Chris Curtis of you gov You Gov also showing substantial losses for Labor in Scotland against by the s.n.p. Well I've been talking to b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert cuff and I asked him about the poll size Well the finds is impressive but the issue of polling and that it's not just about how many people you get it's who you guess and that's been part of the problem we've seen in the 2015 and 17 elections for just because they got a lot of people doesn't mean that it's all over this is basically election done and dusted and we can go home. And I'm looking at this wonderful thing the margin of error and the margin of error seems to get bigger and bigger with these polls doesn't it it's pretty big Yeah so I think what the British polling Council say is that for. For national vote share it could be. Up or down by about 4 points and I am actually asked quite a big an impact because at the moment the conservatives have about an 11 point lead and most of the experts will tell you that a 10 point lead will it will likely translates into a majority but of course that center 6 points if it's down by by 4 then you get a very very different picture so that kind of level of uncertainty in the polls this is what leads make it very difficult. To be completely to rely completely on any single result I think you need to be a little bit wary and if ever I look at their you know we've said that that you Gov predict 43 percent of the vote for the conservatives which would mean $359.00 seats we take a right in the middle of the sample but the margin of error goes from $328.00 seats to 385 so and an actual physical terms you know M.P.'s getting jobs that's a big difference. And it's the view of Louis looking at it quite nervously and so as you say it could be as low as $3.00 to $8.00 which is a very it's a kind of a squeaky bum kind of majority rather than a comfortable one and if the pole shift a little bit bitter. The noun December as they almost certainly will and the picture could change quite substantially I mean I think we started to see if you look at the pattern that the other of the other opinion polls we've been seeing recently it's starting to look a little bit like the Conservatives might be plateauing I mean there's only so many votes that they can take away from the Braves a partner who are kind of falling away down below 3 percent whereas labor are continuing to put on maybe a Point 2 weeks that's how things are looking at the moment though it does look a little bit like the polls might continue to shift between. Now and Election Day But of course it's very volatile so you know if the you know just like you well just like a stocks and shares they could go up or down. But we're still encouraged and they're still buy em we have both you know the actual business of polling are we less Are we less likely to tell a pollster the truth you know are we offsetting the pollsters these days. I think there is some evidence of new kinds of things that are hard to find I think we all we're all familiar with that and the old ninety's trope of the shiny Tory I think some of the polls are started to notice that people that people are less likely to report having voted for Labor in 2017. And that does make it a little bit more complicated because you want your polling sample to be as representative of the part of the population as possible and of people won't tell you who they voted for last time it's hard to make sure that you get enough Labor voters into your sample to get the right amount. So it is it is tricky and take to get the the polls and that's why another reason why I'd say that you don't want to focus too much on any one poll because each of the pollsters ask a funny different question to slightly different panel of people and they try and problem into making a decision because of course some people say oh I'm not going to vote or I'm not sure I'm going to vote for and they all try and get around on different ways and so we you know when we do our poll tracker we tend to try and take an average across all the cultures that we're not saying that. Anyone you know any one polling company of the dramatic truth and absolute fact you're right and of course this just projection does come from from you go from one culture to go for it election night in the polls we elect the exit polls which some people anyway feel either aren't comfortable about what or what is the b.b.c. Do with exit polls East in d.c. And I to be an ex-con I altogether run one exit poll and the results of that are reported on election night after the polls close at 10 o'clock and so that's when you can see that 1st call it had the election might run and it's updated throughout the night as the real results start to come in Robert cover the this is a head of statistics. Well as we've been hearing in the News President Trump has now signed a bill into law supporting pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong the move has angered China which has seen it coming and is accusing Washington of meddling they beat joins us in Hong Kong hello Nic. I wrote gets I Good good morning to you I wonder if there are 2 different reactions here on potentially one is the political reaction has there been any time yet for the protesters or are there pro-democracy activists to comment on what the United States is probably doing. Yeah I mean they are absolutely static this morning down there talking about this being a thanksgiving present from President Trump something which in Dorsey's their campaign their fight for democracy and they're saying this is something which reflects wider international support for what's been happening here in Hong Kong and so yes there absolutely is static and as you suggested said really stark contrast with what China has been saying a little bit gloomy. Yet they said we are I mean here yes I think is probably the word to describe or the Chinese reaction today the fondant foreign ministry saying that this bill represents sinister intentions by the Americans that it's an interference it's something which is against international law and the Chinese have said that their response didn't in their own way to this. Of course the United States and China have been talking about trade in the been talking about settling some of their differences and has been a lot of global optimism about that what's the take on it. Yeah absolutely I mean that is the that is the broader context and I tell you when I answer that Rod I'll just tell you what I can see at the moment because we literally just managed to get on to the policy at university. Campus This is the place where. One point there were thousands and pro-democracy demonstrators most nearly all of them we think have gone away the police have just moved on and I don't know how can we do justice to what is an absolute I mean it looks like a bomb site is like a student party from how the the morning after the night before there is it's completely trashed you've got medical equipment you've got bottles but not full of booze they're full of petrol and there's a whole stash I can see of Molotov cocktails unused petrol bombs and so the fire brigade and also some police officers are trying to clear out this mess and I mean talk of petrol bombs the Chinese think at a critical time in the trade war negotiations trying to resolve it they see President Trump as having you know lobbed in a Molotov cocktail of his own which is only could inflame the situation even although of course these bills went through the Senate and they were there were so a whole lot of us Democratic representatives but is the is the Asian market for a foreign exchange market there surly but the stock market reacting Yeah. Well I mean I do that we've seen other things significant to this I think it's important you say it has got that brought broader political support it was bi partisan support in both in both the upper and lower house in the states and so President Trump was really really reflecting through signing base quite a broad support for the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement I think any sort of economic impacts going forward will be I guess in the years to come because what they can do now through passing this legislation is have this year Leigh assessment where the Americans look at Hong Kong they think right Ok To what extent is China infringing on these essential civil liberties that the rights that the Hong Kong enjoys under the basic law basically are that. David Frum the British back in 1997 and potentially that could be sanctions you know put all on the Chinese if they think that Beijing's interfering with life here in Hong Kong. Well it's it's a wonder they were able to talk to you they are the Hong Kong Polytechnic of all places and thank you so much Nick for telling us what it's like. Because it was he wrote. Let's go to Korea now because South Korea is in mourning for the k. Pop star Guha she was 28 she is a former member of the girl group Cowra and she was found dead in our home and so on Sunday evening her death comes just a few weeks after the death of our close friend and fellow k. Pop star slowly turn the spotlight on the darkest corners of the k. Pop industry and the online abuse directed at celebrities by 5 It's a reporter in Seoul is Julian Hello Julie Hi Ron. It is such a sad story what what was I mean words importance of Google to the whole cape think . So speaking of k. Pop so she debuted as a young girl in 28 so that's the time before that k. Pop would had become this global phenomena as we know now with the b.t.s. And black pink so before then keep up with a very much a domestic thing and starting from minute to thousands there was a wave of new cape up brands from a large entertainment companies like a same j. Y.p. In Canada which. Was a member of was one of the tier of this wave of u.k. Pop and this was really the time that k. Pop went beyond South Korea and was really faint became famous in Japan and other Asian countries so she the car is known for songs like rock you Mr honey jump in and they really defined the air out there one of the groups that defined the era of this 1st k. Pop going global for the 1st time and how do we know that Gerhart I was having a hard time before she died so she has been a beloved star you know she was known as a hardworking and a down to earth singer but really she became publicly known. For her personal life last year when her career was overshadowed by this incident off the stage though in September last year her former boyfriend initially claimed that he was assaulted by her. As they were going through a break up but then later who accused him of threatening to release a very private video that was shot between him and her and something that was very notable at the time was instead of denying the scandal as a whole who actively fought against her abusive ex-boyfriend in the public. Light and obviously this incident just took over the whole tabloid newspaper and the major news outlets as well. And 4 female k. Pop stars admitting the very existence of private videos between her intimate partner could be critical of their career. It was a shallow set up by the way that k. Pop stars are treated and the way they held to some very artificial sort of standard So 1st of all I think we have to understand this whole industry and how they train their trainees before they become they debut as a k. Pop stars So Kate I was a very highly competitive and. Aspiring artist as young as their early teens trained for ears and the industry is also known to have strict rules especially against female stars to name a few there are dating then strict diets and of course unfair contracts so there is all this behind her and she did stood up against her abusive ex-boyfriend and admitted that such video existed so this was a very big almost like a landmark case at the time for that really shook the cape up industry. And can you just tell us about solely you know and hard change things that did surely take her own life. Yes holy holy was another figure she was also a member of she was a member of f x which was a group formed by s.m. Entertainment which is one of the top tier entertainment groups here in South Korea and she was unlike other Ok pop industry artists she spoke. About a lot of issues including feminism which is a very rare thing to see and of course that had backlash is right people criticize her for just simply being herself and admitting that she's a feminist. And that really cost her a lot of stress and she actively talked about being abused online and people really writing hate comments without the any kind of basis of who she really is so that really shook the industry once again less than 2 months ago and so could us deaths coming after. That is really has taken South Korea and in fact quite and wholly are known to be really close friends to each other so there's a lot of self-examination as I mean our people say we've got to do better you know by these young women Yeah so a lot of women are angry in South Korea right now and I think because there was a very evident incident that was a turning point for you know what I was unlike Sally she wasn't as the local on line about her personal beliefs you know she in some ways abide to the Cape rule so to speak. And read out whether she wanted or not her private life was in the limelight and that really pushed you know people believe that really pushed her. Deep in depression and actually in May there was an incident where she quote I was found unconscious and was sent to hospital so even the pol