Until seasons that spread as a result of water borne diseases and ambulances full of medical equipment and teams to provide the 1st stage the queen will edge people to treat each other with respect in her Christmas message tomorrow the comments released in advance by Buckingham Palace unlikely to be seen as a reference the increasingly heated Briggs it debate has a royal correspondent Nicholas Witchell the context of those remarks isn't clear from what Buckingham Palace has released it may be doubted whether the queen has said anything explicit about Rex it but it's clear that the palace is hoping these few words and a reference to the need for the Christmas spirit of goodwill to be heeded will be construed as an attempt by the monarch to soothe the BRICS it debate reason may has praised the armed forces from Salisbury to Syria in her Christmas message to U.K. Servicemen and women Foreign Minister highlighted the response to the Novacek attack in Wiltshire as well as those serving abroad she says U.K. Forces are the finest in the world a man and woman arrested after flights were grounded a Gatwick have been released without charge an unknown longer being treated as suspects police say they're investigating $67.00 possible train sightings and are examining one which was found damaged near the airports James Mattis will leave his job as U.S. Defense secretary in the new year after Donald Trump appointed an acting successor the former general had offered to stay on until February but the president says Deputy Patrick Shanahan will take over next month it's believed Mr Mattis is unhappy with the decision to withdraw U.S. Troops from Syria his Washington correspondent Chris Butler you get the impression he's a man of dignity and restraint to some extent he was also somebody who was seen and this phrase being used a lot one of the last grown ups inside the administration that's obviously coming from critics of Donald Trump but essentially somebody who could restrain Donald Trump on some foreign policy issues and Syria was one of those big issues retailers they're estimated to have canceled most 150000 jobs this. In the sense of a resound reset switch compiled the figures says 2019 could be just as bad as the collapse of pound Toys R Us and plan now with disabilities he was in coughed there was a special gift for the Tottenham manager Mercer Patino as if it is to Everton to 6 on the date of his 26th wedding anniversary in main Spurs a 2 points off 2nd and 6 points off the top of the Premier League Steven Gerrard believes his players didn't do the Rangers shut any justice in a Lay But 1st top performance against St Johnstone his side though did bounce back to win 21 and move up to 2nd in the Scottish Premiership Leeds came from 2 goals down to beat Aston Villa 32 they move to the Summit of the championship director of rugby told blackout upraised his side's focus and preparation as they won 2414 it was the union's premiership the place Gloucester left it late to beat bottom side new causal in the profile it seems to be so came. And defending champion crosses into the last 16 of the P.T.C. World Darts championships with a 4 no win over Cristo Rey is a train Lewis and Nathan Aspinall also through to round 4 this space B.B.C. Radio 5 Live on digital B.B.C. Sound small space under. The weather rain on the south a spin saying many gyal swam with some sunshine and the NE found the lead plant makes if ill day in some areas and feeling chilly if not only 3 nearly full blown things anyone else on says they knights on the station with more life Premier League football than anyone else see Southampton This is West Ham Picasa 745 S. Life's full service is your full station and the ace is 5 life. Coming up in the next hour here on 5 Live an estimated $900000000.00 Indians are going to be heading to the polls to elect a new prime minister maybe their existing prime minister next year we'll be looking at some of the issues which to decide that election the world's largest democracy prepares to go to vote also Christmas Eve so on Christmas Day if you're looking for something different feel youngsters to do or maybe you need to break yourself will be trying to tell you the best educational podcasts out there maybe you could listen to after having your Christmas meal. Let's return to our top story this morning here on up all night more than 280 people are now known to have died in the 1000 being left engine after the wave struck people in the Sunda Strait region of Indonesia and here I spoke to David Roth 3 a professor of planetary geosciences at the Open University he told me why this tsunami is different to the others that have occurred in Indonesia close to the. Grindstone very last rep realises. Under. His watch and cause a tsunami waves very. Well for a fairly. Dark island but under that displaced water because the series of waves. If there is. No indication of what is going on until a way for a mature so we've heard a lot of discussion about early warning systems. This pot of the well because it's an area that is Brown just anomalies and what you're saying with this sort of tsunami it's almost impossible to deal with well yes most of the tsunami warning boys are no good if the source of the tsunami is nearby anyway the good of the tensing tsunami waves are going to travel across the whole Indian Ocean. But by the time the warning was picked up a tsunami passing by the tsunami is probably gone on to the nearby coast anyway but at least you usually get a felt quake most people in the area most of them in the area know if I never see and I feel regret and trembling but I should be thinking about covering undersea earthquake I wanted to get to higher ground but it's not a trembling of the ground felt. When a tsunami of mine I crack a tap and paper coal complete you know west of people approach saying the horrifying video of a pub concert going on when suddenly the white came from the back of the stage and if it's big enough quite generous that tsunami of people would have felt the ground trembling several minutes beforehand and I myself evacuated so the loss of life is probably greater in that. Yes. Fortunately it's just 200 or so never need because the Feds are the ones immediately on the sides of a straits How did being a big earthquake generated tsunami like the one off the coast of Sumatra on Boxing Day in 2004 the loss of life would have been vastly greater. Common in the sawdust anonymous because as you say when we talk so much about yes quite generated ones volcano ones icon remember a conversation about no. No that's pretty uncommon but it was one in a lake in the Philippines a few decades ago the prevention eruption of crack a chav OK I know in 188030 they used a really fast sized. All Ireland in the sun to strike between. Simone trying Java and the whole ball kind that was destroyed in an eruption that caused a tsunami and 30000 people were killed by the tsunami that most of them were killed brought as a volcanic eruption itself but certainly volcanic tsunamis most rarer than tsunamis caused by big earthquakes we know there's a sense. Amongst people who are living in that area that they could be another tsunami coming on like he is that war on a crank attack has been inactive off and on for hours that you know a natural kind of gotten has been ramping up some want another possibly on has collapsed you have to say I was out last some of the remainder of the island to stay to be stable so what was it all and just tossed it collapsed as I think grows volcanically. A rock is erupted above sea level and longer than the veneration is the same will share we're going to see water seepage of the volcano erupt move a new build up the under want to support for it so just the lead of a SURE line volcanic islands tend to be. Getting steeper and steeper and eventually they become 2 states of the stable and they will collapse when a collapse has happened well the hind can be left doubly unstable so there could be a further collapse yes I guess if nothing's happened in a week or 2 people can begin to relax but this is going to be a threat forever and you don't going to stop the supply of magma cracka Tahoe the new volcano on the site of the old cracker to how it's going to keep growing and growing and every so often there will be an event which of course is a volcanic tsunami now let's hope every so often turns out to be just every 100 years or so but it could be every decade or so which has a lot more worrying David rather than a professor of planetary geosciences at the Open University and of course they run 5 Live We'll keep you updated with all the latest information from the tsunami in Indonesia. Let's talk about India though now the world's biggest democracy faces a general election next year around April or May and an estimated 900000000 people will head to the polls to elect their next parliament in 2014 Mr Modi and his B J P party swept to power in what was an overwhelming verdict for change after years of rampant corruption by the Congress led coalition government but according to his critics the Indian prime minister has lots of the frittered away that vote to have a Jewish uncle is a fellow in foreign policy studies at Brookings India in New Delhi and the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. And says what the charities in India based economist in call cut a thank you to both of you do if I can start with you to begin with we had these local elections state elections in India a few weeks ago in which the ruling party lost 3 crucial Hindi speaking States is that a sign now that the prime minister Mr Modi is going to face an uphill battle in the forthcoming elections. Well I agree with her the People Action Results were not as unexpected as many had had believed there was strong and incumbents in all 3 states against the B.G.P. All 3 states who for many many years by the B.G.P. So well read too much into that and how it might might translate into national elections what we do know is that Mr Foley remains very popular in most public opinion surveys He has a high popularity rating however clearly there isn't as much enthusiasm behind his candidacy as it was in 2014 and so I think what we are likely to see in 2019 is still relatively strong for the P.T.P. The opposition has a very large mountain to climb in terms of trying to match those numbers but we may not see as strong a performance as we did 5 years ago now so that's what the one of the crucial fact is in this election and from the crucial factor in this election will be the rural vote are we seeing because of policies like to monetize ation when the prime minister basically got rid of all India's currency overnight which had a huge impact in rural areas as a shift that that they are now for the 1st time unhappy with their prime minister we've seen huge protests by farmers as well in India. Yeah you're absolutely right because not the money convention did really have a strong impact and adverse impact specially in the early years because we want to solve the index of all the food prices going down terribly in term of workers in the rural areas where she paid a fee because you know they didn't have to be paid in cash giving to the lender rocking and utility money time zation and the cash nature of the Konami at that point of time it was really very difficult for them or the land owners to pay these livers wages in cash and so it really took the heat and we know that at this present moment the song economically in days suffering terribly and I think that this is all for the world to see because it is the sound of farmers just testing the March to New Delhi in protest against a soaring operating costs and the plan to production centers and it has brought misery to an so I really think that the money time zation had a HUGE had a huge role to play here. Demonetization the impact on the economy of the government's new in direct taxation system that they bought in. D.S.T. Drew is that going to be a huge problem for the government because the economy is not doing as well as people thought it was going to do and these 2 policies seem to have had an impact on it. So I think you know that. Sorry I think I think you know that that is the conventional wisdom in the conventional reading of a lot of this I think the reality is if it is a little bit more complicated. Then that we did 23 quarters you know of a slowdown in the economy following monetise action we've seen a little bit of a pick up after that and there are other structural factors a place including Secretary Rumsfeld out of global growth that has also affected that being said you know they've been economists were growing almost you know roughly 7 percent So while it's not as heavy as we did see perhaps in the early 2000 or is it actually as bad as I think it's sometimes made out to be that's what the one of the big problems that India has had with its growth is job creation and I was in in Delhi recently where you know the railways have advertised 412-0000 jobs and they've had more than 20000000 applicants for them. That is a problem for any government whether it's Mr Modi So whether it's a Congress led government that may come to power how is the new government going to create jobs for so many people in India with increased automation becoming a factor as well. I mean they should have foreseen these prank long ago because you know that type of dual graphic transition that the Indian economy would have been part of experiencing was what was clear in front of the B.B.C. But I mean none of the thousands D.P.T. To it and that was not even even even with the well these are all 1 you have the skiing accounting and all these things themes relating to the top and so we find at this present moment of this type of joblessness and the need going on which I think that when she really welcomed her that it is really I know how jobs can be created because you know even propositioning challenges if you're talking about it for the skilled workers are people who are. One of the Indian economy those who rely on income even they're not even skilled in the sense of the term studiously facing any type of problem from opposition Kelly is that all the issues that we talk about what do you really need at this point of time to really speed up in the transition roles and the most important fact is that the sun Konami that is suffering tremendously accrediting. Even down to in some numbers because you see we have the green revolution in the 1960 S. And after that I think it is not in every bucket the finance ministers have been saying that we need to have a 2nd wave also during the evolution of the 3rd Wave but we never saw any wave of any wave of England Revolution coming so what and I think the Kremlin and Haiti in crisis the present rather distrait the government is seeing exactly the fallout of this situation along the blessed of the family going on and so we find out what sent me down in the farmer in the villages to the living about employment and I think who lives on some activities is the run thing that the government the new government response is by looking to a same time it should also look into the fact that why are really just declining and they should also kind of certainly also having people who have a squad of countries that are just so in the fall of only our. Only filing those trucks where there is a long flight and given to their support license given to them so that really influential which they foster trying to and with trust to the essential parts rather than things that are aiming in. We know that the economy is obviously going to be a crucial factor in the elections there are other issues as well particularly the temple in Iowa via the building of a Hindu temple on the site of what used to be a mosque Do you think that that will be an issue in this elections and if it is an issue will it serve the government well would it be wiser to leave it alone. Well you know I'm not really an issue that I pay that much attention to it's obviously important. Temple to believe around temple and the other is obviously a very important issue but you know that being said it will clearly galvanize a certain constituency that is that does back pressure somebody on the other hand it will also prove very controversial and I think for the future the ruling party it's part of a number of issues that will. Basically will involve choices that they make with which I think galvanize their existing base war and. We have large numbers of people to vote and seemingly fulfill some of the promises that were made earlier or if if they're trying to protect themselves as a big head National Party you know it would risk alienating some of the larger voters so I think it's one of many issues social issues particularly that could cut both ways I want to have a listen to a conversation and run you a God who is a senior journalist based in Delhi I spoke to her after the recent election results came out. Predicting calls. Northward like that and it's. That sort of development education and the kind of things people are concerned about. Your election campaign and. They want to be sitting well it's not going to work I think if the message hasn't come to the lingam and the movement in strong they're going to lose the next big elections the general election is it though for some people an issue do you think they must've raised it for a reason. It does anymore. Because. No one should. Have. I'm fine with it if you have a rule people have. Is. Something which is. Killing people in the name. And in fact in the. In the traditional. Bed that doesn't talk about it doesn't talk about it the other thing that we've seen from the. Attempts to really . Has. He. Does a spring in his step he's a big speaking. And his. Political leaders is not something he would like. Someone with that. He doesn't know how to who. Doesn't. Has involved. People who. Want to see the old guard they want to hear a new language in. Prisons that youthfulness to them and calling him. Over and over again I think has backfired and I think it's a formula which has been abused so much. The vote again. Was not a vote against local politicians. To the prime minister it's a big message to the prime minister and. As. Against local politicians as it is trying to do the message to the prime minister is he would well as a strong leader or leave any talks of development. He should get away from the bank he should stop talking about saving the Hindu identity he should not let loose politicians who are. In this country the young voters born progress they want the country to move forward they don't want to be talking only about religion about what people are eating their varying This is not something the country loans the country wants to move on. When we look at Indian politics as a politician of a national level Mr Modi is still the dominant figure. We seeing an emergence of Rahul Gandhi is there an affective prime ministerial candidate that the opposition can field against him. Well you know he has certainly emerged as the undisputed leader within his own party. Which is this is an issue that was a little bit questionable a few years ago but he's clearly and he has had a few successful campaigns that's even more successful than the lead to try to victories he ran to be to be very close throughout elections which is not the purpose for his home state not that long ago when it comes with an election and people face the choice of Ronald Gandhi This is Mr Modi do you still think that Indians will go for Mr Modi you know I think the beauty of he plans on making the general election more of a presidential style election and will basically try and project of promise promise him oh he has the obvious candidate for for reelection you know I think we perhaps underestimate the trials of the Congress party still faces when it comes to