If fate is to switch to the Tories they want to get the message out that another referendum won't be an attempt to remain in the e.u. By the back door if you cinemas is planning to resume showing the gang themed film Blue story it's after screenings are cancelled earlier this week following a fight is a complex in Birmingham and several other incidents the chains founder is Tim Richards are plans waiting or to look at the timings and look at who's buying the tickets and we're going to be beefing up security where we've had problems and they want to cinemas but Birmingham where be very difficult to justify screening of the gun there but or go also toying get it out to where it was last week and the use of bags for life is said to have reached $1500000000.00 in the u.k. This year which equates to around $54.00 per household environmental campaigners are calling on supermarkets to increase the cost to $70.00 pence per bag as they contain much more plastic than thin neck areas the Alzheimer's Society says it's seen a large increase in people calling its dementia hotline over the last decade the figures also show Christmas is one of the busiest periods to McLachlan is from the charity now 45000 calls a year from people affected by dementia we've seen an increase in the number of calls we receive Christmas time because that's when families can sometimes find when they have a member who has dementia things can come more difficult and massive attacker providing data from their concepts to help scientists in Manchester come up with ways to reduce the environmental impact of bans on artists going on top lower Foster reports Coldplay announced last week that they were pausing touring until they could find a sustainable way of doing so I bought the results that will come from this study when they're ready in about 6 months time the plan is for this blueprint that's created to be shared with all musicians so there's becomes no excuse for musicians not to tour in a sustainable way let's get this one. The reigning European champions Liverpool will need to get through another crunch final group much scenario to progress to the knockout stage of the Champions League they could only manage a $11.00 draw at home against Napoli meaning they must at least draw at Salzburg in 2 weeks' time to guarantee qualification Chelsea and a $22.00 draw in an eventful match in Valencia to also keep their destiny in their own hands victory against in their final group game will see Chelsea through however manager Frank Lampard is left sweating on the condition of striker Tommy Abraham he was helped off the pitch after landing or quickly towards the end of the 1st half elsewhere in the Champions League RB Leipzig and Barcelona have confirmed their places in the last 16 West Brom have returned to the Championship after thrashing Bristol City for one and the Ferrari team principal Metabo Not so says the Boston Vettel and Charlotte Clare are aware that collision of the Brazilian Grand Prix was not acceptable the team mates collided on the into the circuits back straight as they raced for 4th place for Ari sake they have since cleared the air this is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live on digital b.b.c. Sound smart speaker. The weather this morning the rain scene overnight in Scotland and Northern England really south into central areas of person leaving behind some dry and price of a chilly air condition across southern England and South Wales that we pride spells along with some showers and Northern Ireland it will be rather crowded with showers heading south for the day this week. This. Week is. Good morning I'm on Am and f.m. Around the u.k. On. I'm Roger Sharpe and where a whole night and in this hour of the program and the election cost Adam and Laura look into election related relationship Thailand has no other words if your favorite other is kind of involved with the other party and elsewhere we're going to take a look at a tragedy for k. Pop in which 2 members of the same group have taken their own lives and in election news a major new poll a major in terms of the sample size gives the Conservatives a substantial lead. And the polling organization you Gov are making much of the fact that they got quite close to calling the result of the 2017 general election and they have a new sampling approach which they say gives some remarkable confidence and it takes in. A large number of people so it gives the Conservatives a Commons majority of a road and 68 and a national lead of 11 percentage points over Labor the big deal is more than 100000 people were questioned for this poll whereas in other polls sample size a much smaller of course it is just an opinion poll a much smaller survey carried out by Congress puts the conservatives still ahead of Labor Orly by 7 percentage points but still that is 7 percentage points Here's our political correspondent Nick Hartley You Gov interview just over 100000 people over the past week about their voting intentions before then using a model to predict individual constituency results the poll indicates the conservatives are on course for a comfortable majority picking up just over 40 seats with Labor losing about 50 giving the Tories a majority of $68.00 it also suggests the s.n.p. Will pick up further seats in Scotland where the Lib Dems will add just one to their tally from 2017 it is only one poll which should be treated with caution not least because of a wide margin of error and the fact there are 2 weeks left in the campaign other surveys however have also pointed to the 2 lead although in some cases the gap with Labor seems to have been closing this morning a much smaller calm race poll for The Daily Telegraph pits the conservative 7 points ahead of Labor compared with 11 in the You Gov poll well in a couple minutes we're going to hear from the b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert Kraft 1st of all Chris Carter's political research monitor You Gov and I asked Chris what the data appears to reveal about the current state of voting intentions. What we can say on current polling is that the most likely outcome is a Conservative majority of $68.00 there's always a margin of error in the margin of error on this is a very small conservative majority of under 10 to a very large majority of of over 100 but the most likely outcome on current polling is a majority of 68 The other thing to bear in mind is that we are still nearly 2 weeks out over 2 weeks out from the General Election Day And of course while this can capture where things currently are we don't know how things might move over the period of time but of course none of us are very good as statisticians you know unless we are statisticians but what is your sample size for this because some of your samples are are fairly big some of your samples are not so big are they so in the traditional pall of this they you're speaking to somewhere between the files into 2000 people now this is a much more complicated what we call m.r.p. Model so we're not just doing a show actually we've interviewed over 100000 people in the past 7 days now that allows us not just to look at the national vote share but look at how all of the different types of groups of people in the country are fighting with young people with degrees or old people who didn't go to university and live in a particular part of the country and that allows us to come up with the sea estimates in fact allows us to come up with an estimate for all of the 632 great British seats. And you know we all get frankly beat the over the head by our bosses who say don't give a new way to any one poll but I'm looking back a list of all the polls that's been held in the vendor I can see anybody that sampled one 100000 people I mean you you sample that 11000 people back in the the whatever it was the 20 something of November but is that right I mean there's nobody else doing on this scale you know this is I mean as far as I'm aware this one of the biggest pieces of research that my company has ever conducted and you know probably one of the biggest pieces of research has ever been conducted into fighting intention in the u.k. Now the reason reason we're doing this is because we think it's really important in this election and in fact any election and in fact if you take the issue of breaks it for example an issue which is going to affect generations to come in all of these things is really important to listen to to represent and to reflect what the British public I think what we've done here is conduct is one of our best biggest pieces of research ever so that we can so that we can we can try and accurately do . So here with what we've said that you've recorded the consent of the majority or potential Conservative majority of 68 what is our present in percentage of the vote share so we currently got 11 point conservative late so that's the conservatives pretty much on the same vote they won in 2017 in the late forty's 43 percent labor down quite considerably on the $27000.00 votes that are currently sitting at 32 percent the Liberal Democrats have increased nearly doubled it a currently on 14 percent However despite that increase in by They've still only managed to gain a single seat. Well the Liberal Democrats showing higher earlier in the month I mean look at some polls here that have them up that he has won b.m.g. Had them up 18 percent by the 1st of November you know one of the big interesting things about this campaign is just how difficult the Liberal Democrats have found it they started this campaign on the round of 3rd of the vote. Amongst remain voters just now to drop down to a quarter as Labor has started to squeeze votes back and unfortunately for them we don't have any good news for them tonight Eva is showing even though they're still up on the 2017 votes down the start the campaign still up on the 2017 Boccia they're not don't seem at this stage at least to be doing a good job of trance translating those extra votes into extra seats. Chris Curtis You Gov You Gov also showing substantial losses for Labor in Scotland that gains by the s.n.p. Well I've been talking to b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert cuff and I asked him about the poll size Well the find is impressive but the issue of polling a vote it's not just about how many people you get it's who you're gas and that's been part of the problem we've seen in the 2015 and 17 elections for just because they got a lot of people doesn't mean that it's all over this is basically the election done and dusted and we can go home. Yeah and I'm looking at this wonderful thing the margin of error and the margin of error seems to get bigger and bigger with these polls doesn't it it's pretty big Yeah so I think what the British polling Council say is that for. For national vote share it could be. Up or down by about 4 points and none actually has quite a big an impact because at the moment the conservatives have about an 11 point lead and most of the experts will tell you that a 10 point lead will it will likely translate into a majority but of course that center 6 points if it's down by by 4 then you get a very very different picture so that kind of level of uncertainty in the polls this is what lead makes it very difficult. To be completely to rely completely on any single result I think you need to be a little bit wary and they've ever look at their you know we've said that that you Gov predict 43 percent of the vote for the conservatives which would mean $359.00 seats if you dig a right in the middle of the sample but the margin of error goes from $328.00 seats to 385 so and an actual physical terms you know M.P.'s getting jobs that's a big difference. And it's the view of Louis looking at it quite nervously and so as you say it could be as low as $3.00 to $8.00 which is a very it's a kind of a squeaky bum kind of majority rather than a comfortable one and if the pole shift a little bit between now and December as they almost certainly will and then the picture could change quite substantially I mean I think we've started to see if you look at the patterns of the other of the other opinion polls we've been seeing recently it's starting to look a little bit like the Conservatives might be plateauing I mean there's only so many votes that they can take away from the break the party now who are kind of falling way down below 3 percent whereas Labor are continuing to put on maybe a Point 2 weeks that's how things are looking at the moment so it does look a little bit like the polls might continue to shift between. Now and Election Day But of course it's very volatile so you know it. You know just like you well just like your stocks and shares they could go a border. Yes but we're still encouraged and they're still by our both you know the actual business of polling are we less Are we less likely to tell a pollster the truth you know are we off to the porters these days. I think there is some evidence of new kinds of of things that are hard to find I think we all we're all familiar with that and the old ninety's trope of the shy Tory I think some of the pollsters have started to notice that people that people are less likely to report having voted for Labor in 2017 and and that does make it a little bit more complicated because you want your polling samples to be as representative of the part of the population as possible and of people won't tell you they voted for last time it's hard to make sure that you get enough Labor voters into your sample or you get the right amount. So it is it is tricky and take to get the polls and that's why another reason why I'd say that you don't want to focus too much on any one poll because each of the pollsters ask a slightly different question to a slightly different panel of people and they try and problem into making a decision because of course some people say are not going to vote or I'm not sure I'm going to vote for and they all try and get around that in different ways and so we you know when we do our poll tracker we tend to try and take an average across all the pollsters that we're not saying to anyone you know any one polling company of the the magic truth and I believe that you're right and of course this this projection does come from from you go from one pollster take a far telex unlike in the polls elect the exit polls which some people anyway feel either uncomfortable about what or what is the b.b.c. Do with exit polls these days b.b.c. And i.t.v. An excursion I altogether run one exit poll and the results of that are reported on election night after the polls close at 10 o'clock and so that's when you can see that 1st call of how the election might run and it's updated throughout the night as the real results start to come in. Robert cuff B.B.C.'s head of statistics. Well as we've been hearing in the News President Trump has now signed a bill into law supporting pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong the move has angered China which has seen it coming and is accusing Washington of meddling they beat joins us in Hong Kong hello Nic. I road gets i a good good morning to you I wonder there are 2 different reactions here on potentially one is the political reaction has there been any time yet for the protesters or other pro-democracy activists to comment on what the United States is probably doing. Yeah I mean they are absolutely static this morning down there talking about this being a thanksgiving present from President Trump something which in Dorsey's their campaign their fight for democracy and they're saying this is something which reflects wider international support for what's been happening here in Hong Kong and so yes there absolutely is static and as you suggested said really stark contrast with what China's been saying other bumi. Yeah they certainly are I mean here yes I think is probably the word to describe or the Chinese reaction today the fondant foreign ministry saying that this bill represents sinister intentions by the Americans that it's an interference it's something which is against international law and the Chinese have said that they're responding in their own way to this. Of course the United States and China have been talking about trade and the been talking about settling some of their differences and has been a lot of global optimism about that what's the take on it now that. Yeah absolutely I mean that is that that is the broader context and I tell you when I answer that Rod I'll just tell you what I can see at the moment is. We literally just managed to get on to the politics university campus this is the place where it goes one point there were thousands and pro-democracy demonstrators most of them nearly all of them we think of going away the police have just moved on and I don't know how can we do justice to what is an absolute I mean it looks like a bomb site is like a student party from how the the morning after the night before there is it's completely trashed you've got medical equipment you've got bottles but not full of booze they're full of petrol and there's a whole stash I can see of Molotov cocktails unused petrol bombs and so the fire brigade and also some police officers are trying to clear up this mess and I mean talk of petrol bombs the Chinese think at a critical time in the the trade war negotiations trying to resolve it they see President Trump as having you know lobbed in a Molotov cocktail of his own which is only could inflame the situation even although of course these bills went through the Senate and they were the work of a whole lot of us Democratic representatives but is the is the Asian market for a foreign exchange market there surly but the stock market reacting Yeah. Well I mean I do that we've seen other things significant to this I think it's important you say it has got that brought broader political support it was bi partisan support in both in both the upper and lower house in the states and so President Trump was really really reflecting through signing this quite a broad support for the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement I think any sort of economic impacts going forward will be I guess in the years to come because what they can do now through passing this legislation is have this year early assessment where the Americans look at Hong Kong and they think right Ok To what extent is China infringing on these essential civil liberties that the rights that the song. Enjoys under the Basic Law recruitment basically on the handover from the British back in 1997 and potentially there could be sanctions you know put all on the Chinese if they think that Beijing's interfering with life here in Hong Kong. Well it is a wonder they were able to talk to you there at the Hong Kong Polytechnic of all places and thank you so much Nick for telling us what it's like. It's it was he wrote. Let's go to Korea no because South Korea is in mourning for the k. Pop star Guha she was 28 she is a former member of the girl group Cowra and she was found dead in our home and so on Sunday evening her death comes just a few weeks after the death of our close friend and fellow k. Pop star slowly turn the spotlight on the darkest corners of the k. Pop industry and the online abuse directed that celebrities by file our reporter in Seoul is Julian Hello Julie. Hi Ron well. It's such a sad story what what was I mean wars importance of go to the whole Capel think. So speaking of k. Pop so she debuted as a young girl in 28 so that's the time before that k. Pop would had become this global phenomenon as we know now with the b.t.s. And black pink so before then capable is a very much a domestic thing and starting from minute to thousands there was a wave of new cape up brands from a large entertainment companies like a same day y.p. In Canada which. Was a member of was one of the tier of this wave of u.k. Pop and this was really the time that k. Pop went beyond South Korea and was really faint became famo