Resulted in a deal to try to stop the Turkish offensive the Kurds feel they've run out of options and their best chance of protection now lies with President Assad and his Russian backers Tunisians are celebrating on the streets of the capital as exit polls predict a landslide victory for the independent candidate that carries Saeed in the presidential runoff election jubilant supporters of gathered in central Tunis to sing and wave flags meant to side the former law professor campaigned on what he called the values of the Arab Spring uprising he thanked young people for his victory and promised to build a new Tunisia. The old what today we will attempt with all our strength to build a new Tunisia for the people came out in December of 2010 and January of 2011 to achieve by the statement This is what we want and today you will achieve what you want opposition parties in Hungary uniting behind a center left Challenger have managed to see the incumbent mayor of Budapest Ishta Vandeleur gag a carriage Shoney's win is being seen as a major defeat for the right wing prime minister Viktor Orban and his videos party which had backed Mr Tyler Nick thought reports from the Hungary in capital Gehrig a car Chinee are told 44 year old political scientist is the new mayor of Peter passed he won close to 51 percent of the vote ahead of its trend Talaash who trailed on 44 percent this is a surprise victory for 6 opposition parties ranged from left to right who put forward joint candidates across most of Hungary to challenge the domination of Victor or bands 3 days party in his victory speech getting a car attorney told cheering supporters that he would take you to past back to Europe and that the result was the 1st step in changing the whole of Hungary. Talks are begun between the government of Ecuador an indigenous groups aimed at ending almost 2 weeks of anti austerity protests there taking place behind closed doors in a school outside the capital Quito the discussions were delayed for a few hours over security as is and requests from indigenous groups that they should be broadcast live this is the world news from the b.b.c. Thousands of Haitians of marched through the streets of the capital Port au Prince to call for the resignation of President as you've never Modi's men and women wearing white dots to music blasting from trucks carrying sound systems Haitian opposition leaders and their supporters been calling for Mr Murray's to step down angry at fuel and food shortages sharp currency devaluation and corruption allegations he has denied wrongdoing. The e.u. Is chief negotiator on BRICs it will show Bernier has told diplomats that both sides had offered concessions on the contentious issue of the Irish border from Brussels is Adam Fleming Michel Barnier said he could rewrite the original backstop for the Irish border to clarify that Northern Ireland remains part of the U.K.'s customs territory in legal terms even if e.u. Customs procedures applied in practice the u.k. Solution is to track goods from Great Britain to determine if the end up in Ireland that's opposed by the e.u. Is unworkable but there's one area where Brussels seems to have softened they're prepared to keep talking until the eve of the summit of e.u. Leaders on Thursday despite saying previously a revised deal had to be ready a week in advance. Hunter Biden the son of former Vice President Joe Biden is stepping down from the board of a private equity company backed by China in a statement from his lawyer Mr Biden says he believed he acted appropriately in his business dealings in Ukraine and China President Trump called for China and Ukraine to investigate the Bidens earlier this month. The women's world marathon record been decisively broken by the Kenyan runner Bridget cuz guys she knocked more than a minute of the previous best time completing the Chicago Marathon in 2 hours 14 minutes and 4 seconds the previous record had been held for 16 years by the British athlete Paula Radcliffe b.b.c. News alone welcome to World Business Report I'm Phillip hamesha on the program today Poland's controversial Lauren Justice Party has increased its share of the vote and may take a parliamentary majority mama we have reasons to be happy was a if they got part there's no golf put on top because despite a strong front formed are going to just we managed to win and all signs point that it will stay like this. And as October 31st looms ever closer we explore the preparations companies in Arlon the making to cope with the uncertainty of what practice it may or may not offer. But let's start in Poland where exit polls show that the nationalist Lauren Justice Party increased its share of the vote enough to give it a majority in the lower house of parliament addressing his supporters the lore and Justice Party leader or welcome the early results started Bill our national woman or hue on d.v.d. Got our main strength credibility in keeping our word must last it could be more difficult in the 4 years that are ahead of us than it was during the 4 years behind us we need to keep up her credibility we need to make everyone have no doubts that what we are doing is both good real and responsible. Jaroslav Kaczynski there and he was very pleased that they took 43.6 percent of the vote which allowed them to thrash the next highest party in the country's civic coalition they only took 27.4 percent Law and Order also called the Pearce or p.r.i. S. Promoter a socially conservative nationalist agender and has clashed with the European Commission over migration and its attempts to gain more control over the judiciary so I spoke to the B.B.C.'s Warsaw correspondent Adam Easton and asked him what the atmosphere is like in the city tonight somewhat subdued in terms of the immediate reaction in the party of the governing law and Justice Party its leader yes rocketing Ziggy his tone wasn't as celebrate Sharee as the exit poll would seem because that exit poll of course gave his party the largest share of votes 43.6 percent I think that's no party has won a higher percentage of votes since communism ended in 1930 years ago and their share and their share of the vote has been going up in each of the elections that they've heard certainly in the last 2 and that is also a fact I think that he is no longer the public face of the party he is still the leader of the party but actually the prime minister and the press. Wouldn't that he hand-picked were younger more moderate faces of law and justice Mr Kaczynski himself lost about 7 or 8 elections in a row until he did that but it's certainly true in this election I think was that vote is repaid their faith in the fact that his party made concrete electoral promises many of them to do with the economic sphere such as a very general swell fair benefits program that's child benefits that's also higher pensions free medicines for senior citizens abolishing income tax for almost all 100 people under the under $26.00 raising the minimum wage because it actually carried out many of those promises that it made in the previous campaign people have given it a vote of trust come here food all of these promises that he's made up until this point yes there's some skepticism about the minimum wage whether that can actually if they can raise it that high to almost double that that would make it one of the highest minimum wages in Europe that will clearly have an impact on inflation clearly have an impact on wages make it very difficult I think for certain sectors such as restaurant sectors hotel sector there was a lot of skepticism about the previous level of promises and most of those have been carried out that is because long just as has presided over a period has been lucky enough to preside over a period of pretty impressive economic growth about run about 5 percent per year and also that it has improved one thing it's done differently it's actually be proved v.a. T. Collection and clamp down on the 80 invaders somehow the other political parties responding to their inability to p.i. Us not very well open to this point if in brief the main opposition party which is . No the Civic Platform in these elections rejoined a splinter party that broke away some years ago and big name itself civic coalition said to write more liberal more socially liberal and also more liberal in terms of economic policy generally speaking but it has apart from you know banging there were more pro Europe of the P.I.A.'s piece it's acronym in Polish law and justice is turning goes towards all for a Terran ism and telling us towards the the east we want Poland to be in the heart of Europe it failed miserably to actually present a coherent vision of what it wanted apart from that that we're and P.I.A.'s the Polish government has had large amount of negative press internationally speaking for some of the what it would call reforms of its justice system and various other parts of the economy which the European Union has looked and said Hang on a 2nd this is getting a little bit too or Thora Tarion for us so clearly that hasn't been decisive even that wasn't decisive clearly and I think economic issues and the welfare program proved to be much more important and also socially conservative values traditional Roman Catholic values it's fair to say that Poland relatively speaking to west in many Western European countries in the u.s. For example is more socially conservative when it comes to gay marriage when it comes to abortion so peace embodies that traditional Roman Catholic teaching and I think that still has an impressive electorate in Poland and I'm Eastern in Warsaw. That sound is the famous countdown clock from the long running British came sure the same name it's also sound the mate will be ringing prime minister promised Johnson's ears as we count down to the October 31st breaks it date frantic negotiations Mick. With frantic obstinacy as all sides try to hammer out a deal or not as to their political leanings from Mr Boris Johnson has said that he can see a way forward to reaching a deal with the European Union in all of our interests his words not mine before BRICs it is due to happen but he also warned his cabinet that there was still again his words a significant amount of work to do none of this helps real people. Those who are not just those who are in the u.k. But also those elsewhere in the European Union who may be affected Allison cows or is the co-founder of East Coast biscuits and daughter in law of Republic of Ireland and she's been trying to prepare for breaks it including the challenges of getting commodities like flour from the u.k. Different food regulations supply chains across from France to Britain Arland and then go back again to tell me more like most businesses are dealing with the u.k. And in Ireland we have to really look at our entire supply chain we're in the food business the company has these cars because so we're manufacturing biscuits so for example we're taking our flour in from the u.k. The flour this produced in Ireland is that we produce here is and it's unsuitable for Biscuit Flour so we would source our flying from the mill in the u.k. Our sugar is actually coming in via the u.k. Into into into Cork we think we might be able to divert that to 2 European supplier and that would be good our chocolates coming in from France were Ok on that but much of the rest of the products that we're using within our operation are coming via either the u.k. Or through the u.k. From Europe so we literally have to go back and trace the journey of every ingredient that we use We're producing 90 different recipes so you can imagine that means a lot of a lot of ingredients and it is a business person sitting with the team putting all that effort in and then trying to motivate people to make it happen and to do it well and then to sort of realize and of course the team realize you know we're hoping it's going to be a waste of time so that that is a very difficult and I have ready business to be and that is incredibly frustrating a very stressful for you there will be people at home though sitting there listening thinking why do you have to change British suppliers to European ones just because of the breaks a situation can't you just agree prices in advance or hedge or use some kind of contract or financial instrument to help you out here so there's 2 to pick 2 aspects of play here so the 1st is the current. See we've seen the. The volatility of sterling as as it's been over the last number of years now so that's that that brings a lot of uncertainty the business but the main issue really is around tariffs so the tariffs that will come in on flour coming into Ireland from the u.k. If they're to be placed at w.t.r. Levels and that's all we can bank on at the moment because if there's no deal which is what the worst case scenario is it would be tariffs I mean we would take in a number of tankers that you know the very large tankers you see on the road similar to petrol tankers and we take in bulk supply of those clearly is not petrol it's flour for each one of those that comes through our factory gate to to begin the process of baking we would be charging additional for a half 1000 euro in tariffs so that's the real reason why we have to start looking at mitigating our supply chain that's an absolutely enormous increase in tariffs that what what would you like to see happen from here clearly the business aspect is hugely important for our economy as we'll have a major shock if her heart breaks it happens in fact our budget has just been announced foreign minister for finance this week and he presented it as a as a Briggs a budget and in the context of very little money to spend but the 2nd aspect which is equally important perhaps more so in the context of history is the requirement to maintain a frictionless trade on the island of Ireland and no border you know we need no customs on checks on the island of Ireland and we also need no tariffs because that tariff situation I think will be very damaging for our economy will equally be damaging for the u.k. Economy and. Work both ways so not only our flour and other products coming in will be subject to tariffs but our product going into the u.k. And we sell about 50 percent of our output to the u.k. If we could get to a transition period with an agreement that that sees an agreement to to continue as it is in terms of trade. That would be a huge step forward Alison Kauser co-founder of East Coast biscuits they're the biggest u.s. Banks are expected to kick off the ending season this week on a sour note due to falling interest rates central banks have been cutting their rates they've made it harder for banks to make money from the difference between what they charge bottle was and what they pay out to save as it may all be enough to cause the sector's 1st year on year ending Special Ed Klein in a brown 3 years so choose day brings the 3rd quarter profits from Citi Group Wells Fargo and j.p. Morgan Chase Goldman Sachs and Bank of America they'll be coming out with their profits on when state so I asked independent economist Michael Hughes to explain a little bit more it's quite likely that the large banks that are reporting this week will record a quarter on quarter and indeed a year on year decline in their own ings which will be the 1st such decline since 2016 but it looks inevitable that the net interest margin are bound to be squeezed when you've had the Fed cutting interest rates in July and again in September of banks generally a leading indicator for the economy or a lagging indicator for it because it could go either way given that they're loaning out to businesses and to consumers it is I think it lot depends on the statements that they company these figures because if you start to see default rates going up if you start to see problems within the housing market then those can be lead indicators of worse things to come for the economy as a whole law which the mortgage side of the equation looks pretty buoyant because people are able to refinance their mortgage at quite low long term interest rates so mortgage activity and housing activity generally doesn't look too worrisome as yet but the default rates for companies and indeed for small businesses is something that would be quite sensitive for the markets to understand and if there are any negative comments about that that I think that would be taken very badly for the market as a whole something. You also keeping an eye on is global trade balances we have the World Bank and indeed the i.m.f. Meetings this week and they come out with updated economic forecasts for the next 2 or 3 years or so and one of the things which I think will stand out is that the current account imbalances that. Have been quite large in years gone by I'm a very large if you go back to the financial crisis of 2007 and 8 when you had a current account surplus is of 10 percent in China and very large surpluses in Japan but you have deficits now the parts of the world those differences in current accounts are usually a indicator of pressures within the financial sector and so the fact that the forecasts that I suspect we will see this week will suggest that those imbalances have reduced substantially and indeed are likely to reduce further implies that the risk of great major financial crises in the year or 2 ahead may not be as big as some might have been fearing and indeed the markets clearly have been concerned not just by the fall in banking earnings but also on potential financial risks that may be coming into the system is why the ratings in the stock market or something like 30 percent lower than the stock market as a whole so those sensitivities may actually be eased somewhat if we start to see better economic news ahead independent economist Michael Hughes John is president Xi Jinping is issued a stern warning against dissenters protests continue in Hong Kong saying that any attempt to divide China will end in and these are his exact words crushed bodies and shouted bones the strong words have sent a shiver through the international media in the situation in the territory of is of course having a knock on effect on its economy Hong Kong to be tell sector is heavily reliant on tourism for instance and flight bookings to the city have collapsed I spoke to Jamison Wong. He's Asia Pacific business development director of travel consultancy forward we have seen you know remarkable impacts that has stemmed from the the protests we are tracking a drop of 53.3 percent of mainland Chinese travelers between the 1st of July and the 20th of September we also tracking a decrease of 58.2 percent in terms of for bookings for travel between 24th of September and to the 30th of. Now you mentioned the a drop of more or less a 3rd from mainland China so Chinese people even are avoiding going to Hong Kong because of the current situation I mean it's not only limited to Chinese travelers . You know as a matter of fact we look at international travel to Hong Kong it's the same situation you know between the 1st of July and 23rd of September what we have seen is a minus 14.5 percent year over year growth while for bookings for travel. Between the 24th of September all the way through to the of the He's also currently minus 25.2 percent behind what does this mean for some of the airlines involved are they also getting hurt by this. You know d.l. Lines tourism businesses they have all been impacted by that but a protest one of the things that we've seen is that the airlines are hurting I mean that's that's that's that's no surprise so you see the shot impacts every day they're cutting fares just to get people to fly. Similarly on the longer term we also saw things starting to see the airlines cutting back on their capacity we've China Southern Airlines cutting their more seats now is or does it may seem some other p