Transcripts For BBCNEWS Newsnight 20170104 : vimarsana.com

BBCNEWS Newsnight January 4, 2017

Who didnt come from the same background as them and did not go to the same university do not look like them. How the royalty of Silicon Valley are coping in america. Hello. Its a big year for france. We know president hollande will not be in power after may. What is to be determined is who will replace him. Marine le pen of the Front National hopes to pull a trump like shock, and, to that end, she has been putting flesh on her Policy Platform in the last couple of days. The big news is that shes inserted some nuance into her stance on the eu. Shes no longer saying france must come out. But she is for change, and even accepting that shell probably fail to win the election, france could take a radically different direction, anyway. Our diplomatic editor mark urban reports. For many french, the Front National, the national front, and its former leader, Jean Marie Le pen, had become like the baddies in a Graphic Novel there to menace, but never to win. Marie le pen le pens daughter has sought to rebrand the party, shed its racist image and capture the presidency. I think she has done extremely well in detoxifying, thats the word she uses, the Front National brand and saying, you know, im not an extremist, i do not make nastyjokes about the holocaust and parties like mine win in other countries. Look at ukip, look at brexit, look at trump in america. It is perfectly normal to vote for me, im just a politician, except that im different from the others. Le pens platform unveiled during recent days has a take back control feel to it, restoring sovereignty of the economy, she says, being more protectionist of the territory of france itself, imposing permanent Border Controls, and of monetary policy, reintroducing the franc, albeit pegged to wider european currencies in a kind of new Exchange Rate mechanism, a more moderate message than some of her recent pronouncements on the so called frexit. We see that shes not going for hard frexit, shes trying to explain to the electorate that she wants to renegotiate things with europe. That is quite a change from the rhetoric at the start and now. She is doing this probably because she wants to reach beyond her traditional electoral base. If Marine Le Pen is to win, she has got to leap a whole series of hurdles, from appealing to voters who usually stay at home to racing through a crowded president ial field, and indeed, funding her campaign. Speaks french with the party short of cash, it may seek another loan from russia, a country The Party Leader has been reluctant to criticise. The Front National has a storied past of aligning themselves with strange people. Marine le pens stepmother and herfather got money from saddam hussein. They, you know, they campaigned heavily for saddam hussein, saying that he was misunderstood, and a bit like Bashar Al Assad today, you know, a beacon of secularism in the middle east. Thats a tradition. And strangely enough, it has not harmed her. But can le pen actually win . Received political opinion suggests she may get to the last two for a second round vote, as indeed her father managed in 2002. But it will be very hard for her to clinch victory. But, then again, thats received opinion, based on polls, and one french paper announced yesterday that it wont be using them. Translation we realise that pollsters did not predict several big Events Brexit in great britain, trump in the us. In france, we have primaries on the right and we didnt expect Nicolas Sarkozy to be eliminated in the first round. We all thought alain juppe would win. Thats what the polls were telling us. But it was Francois Fillon who won, and nobody predicted that. Francois fillon, now leading the polls, is a man of bracingly right wing views. He may well cast doubt on Marine Le Pens values, or even suggest shes not so different from her father. Her battle for power wont be easy. She is suddenly looking not as the newcomer, as she would hope, but somebody who has tried again and again to be elected, while Francois Fillon was Prime Minister for five years and is now the favourite, the newcomer. She didnt expect him to win the primary. So this is a new battle for her and it is dangerous for her strategy. Mobilising people against an establishment candidate will still provide le pen with plenty of options, and the success of her messages on Border Controls and leaving the single currency may yet produce in france a huge challenge to the european project. Joining me now are benedicte paviot, the uk correspondent for france 2a, and philippe marliere, professor of french and European Politics at university college, london. I want to start by getting you to reflect on the Front National, they seem to have softened enormously. Should we think of them as the Fascist Party or the french ukip . It is more the french ukip but it is a different animalto ukip. There is very much the question of identity, this is across the french spectrum, people are concerned about security and france is still under a state of emergency, about immigration. And that is they are concerned, very high unemployment, for the same population, france has almost io . The economy is not doing very well, so it is difficult and people are finding it very hard to get by. But i wouldnt compare, and indeed nigel farage doesnt like her thinking they are in the same boat. He has never said a word against, he said, but he has criticised her father. Would you call them a Fascist Party . No. She is very astute in her language, so she is able to appeal to people who would be described as probably fascist but she is careful, unlike herfather, not to generally not to say things, although she has been in trouble herself, whether it is about muslims and also about the holocaust. Do you think of them as the Fascist Party . Or as the ukip party . It is hard to call them a Fascist Party today, although their roots are in the far right, and they are clearly an extreme far right party, but they have softened the image, the brand, because of le pen herself, you know, the message is soft, but when you look at the core policies it is about immigration and law and order. It is still about identity politics. It is still about islam posing a major threat to french identity. These have been very important in other elections, like in america. If many french voters think they are a Fascist Party, they will think they will never vote for them, but if you look at the policies you have described, populist economics, sovereignty, national control, you could see people voting for that, couldnt you 7 it would appeal to the mainstream . It is a difficult question, Opinion Polls have said for the majority of people the Front National remains a party which is a threat to french democracy. That is very clear. It is not a normal party in that respect. However, again, if you want to see it as a Fascist Party along the lines of the nazis in germany or mussolini, there are differences, clearly. Lets talk about fillon, being parked between ukip and more extreme, but Francois Fillon, he is not a normal french candidate, hes quite right wing, isnt it . I mean, hes thatcherite. Which the french dont like. Very socially conservative. Yes. So, lets point out that Francois Fillon, i would not agree with your reporter, hes not a known quantity, he would like to present himself as a newcomer, but the french people know him very well. He was a Prime Minister under ex president Nicolas Sarkozy and we should point out that it is quite a surprise that we are sitting here at the end of november. He was not seen at all by the polls as the favourite to be the conservative candidate, but he is the official candidate in what was a very successful first time exercise for the french conservatives to do these primaries, that is the. The socialists did that at the last election, they will go through their second exercise. It was very successful because they got millions of people to come out and vote and we ended up, not with another former conservative Prime Minister, alainjuppe, we got Francois Fillon, who has a track record, and is a known quantity. And, as you say, he has parked his tanks very firmly on the right, which is a slight problem for a certain Marine Le Pen. She had geared herself up to be dealing with mrjuppe. Hes not doing well in the polls, though. Hes not doing well, no. Ever since his victory, which was very good, and the expulsion in third place, as we know, of the ex president nicholas sarkozy, he has been completely silent and 53 of the french people feel he has been to silent and he has disappeared, you cant afford to do that. And that he should also change some of his policies. What is going on in france . We have not spoken about the socialists, no one seems to be bothered by them in this election. Is it cultural or economic Question Mark it is very simple, the Francois Hollande presidency has been a fiasco, is it cultural or economic . 1 5 €§335554e{£ . . § 1 7 1 74 so a very unpopular government. That is why one of the candidates, manuel valls, will have a mountain to climb. If hes nominated by his own party. The second reason, the left is not united. There will be many many candidates, 5 6 candidates on the left. Very briefly. Final answer, what do you think the eu should be thinking French Election . Should they be terrified of both candidates . Particularly because, in some ways, Marine Le Pen is a bit softer towards the eu than she was six months ago. If Francois Fillon wins or a socialist wins, any candidate will be rather lukewarm regarding europe but they it be the same continuation of the same policy as at the moment. If le pen wins it is a totally different situation. She would like a referendum about frexit. That would be a different proposition, but she has to win, and shes not there yet, in my opinion. Watch out for macron. There is one other person to watch out for, the independent candidate. The wild card. Thanks forjoining us. Britain has a new ambassador to the eu it didnt take long, didnt it . Hes another sir, like ivan rogers. This one is tim barrow. Im joined by our Political Editor nick watt. What do we know about Sir Tim Barrow . Hes an immensely respected figure and his nickname in the Foreign Office is deep state, denoting an all knowing figure, which means he has the answers to everything. He had a stint in moscow and a couple in brussels. Boris johnson is delighted. Interestingly, for a brexiteer, he believes the uk mission to the eu needs to be headed by someone who speaks the language in europe. He was one of the diplomatic high flyers who takes the form formal notes of the European Council some years ago. They also believe because tim barrow has been the political director at the Foreign Office, he is in tune to the politics and he also has something of a sense of humour and is aware of the intricacies of the brexit debate. This became apparent in a recent appearance before the Foreign Affairs select committee when his boss alan duncan inadvertently set him up as one of those dreaded experts. This is the exchange. Im not perhaps as deeply immersed in theirthinking, but maybe i can bat that to tim barrow, who has been living with this. Im not an expert. Michael gove might approve, but not me. Where did disappointment come from . This appointment. It has been quite quick. Is it a solution, or does it create another problem inside the Foreign Office . Tim barrow was only approached for thisjob in the last 36 hours after sir ivan rogers stood down, and the process a successor was led by sirjeremy heywood, the Cabinet Secretary Scotching Rumours that a political brexiteer would be put in. Sirjeremy has ensured that at one level, nothing changes. A Whitehall Life will run the British Mission to the eu. Lifer. But at another level, everything changes. He is a clean slate. Sir ivan rogers carried a lot of baggage because he was associated with David Camerons negotiations. Interestingly, tim barrow has achieved a first. He has united remainers and almost all leavers. One dissenting voice is nigel farage. In the film i, daniel blake, you see the main characters daniel blake and his friend kate lose their benefits after being sanctioned by the benefits office. Sanctioning is a punishment for not looking for work hard enough or turning up on time for appointments or whatever. Now, Daniel Blakes story is fiction, but those who work in food banks say that sanctioning does force people into charity. Were going to debate sanctioning shortly with ken loach, who made the i, daniel blake film. But first, we go to the town of accrington to meet some people whove been sanctioned. Filmmaker Nick Blakemore has returned to maundy grange, a Charity Relief centre he visited in 2014, which tries to help them. Good morning, maundy grange. Ive had a bit of a bad situation with a landlord. Hes evicting us. Its been an absolute nightmare. Got in rent arrears with the landlord and hesjust started getting really heavy. Hes been evicted. Needs referring. At the moment, hes struggling hard forfurniture. Right. Here, we try to provide an Immediate Response to poverty and need in the local community. Need can be defined as not having enough to eat or suffering from Mental Ill Health or needing help with a form. Is there any dinner left . Fish and chips, no peas. Fish and chips will do. Three years of things getting e there are things. Whichme merefii and people being left to be destitute, which are now more commonplace. And thats a worry, and that doesnt seem to be getting better. I cant get into the house to get my stuff, so while im fighting to get my stuff, ive got nothing to live on, you know what i mean . All i really want is help. If i can get hold of a bed or something. Nothing wrong with this. All good food. Tomatoes. Whats wrong with them . Nothing. Ive been eating this today. Lovely. These are them. Im one of the lucky ones. People feel sorry for me. They shouldnt. Im already on the streets. Im not scared any more. Ive got no debts and i dont owe anybody any money. Theres nobody knocking on my door. John isnt receiving any benefits. When he lost his job four years ago, he says he gave up on the system after being sanctioned. Ive worked all my life and now they expect me to do a job search, six hours a day. For £40 a week . Im not doing it. Ive got bills to pay. Its wrong. Thats not living. There should be heads rolling for that one. When you say you worked all your life, what were you doing . My firstjob, i worked in the mill for six years and then in a foundry for a couple of years, and then in another foundry in accrington, and in burnley. Theyve all closed down now. When i was here last, i metjohn crabtree. Hed just been sanctioned. The sanctions are basically about saying youre not making enough of an effort to look for work. So is that not fair . Its not fair. I turned around and said to them, look, im 61 now, theres nojobs for someone of my age. So how can you sit there, young person, 25, and tell me about work . You havent even had the experience ive had. I say, dont make me laugh. All right, john, hows it going . I tracked john down to his new place in accrington. Hes now on another sanction, he says, because he did not fill in a form correctly. Its been a while since i saw you. I wanted to see how youre doing. Is this your new place . Yeah. Come in. Hello. Sit down. This is where ive been for about three year. Last time i spoke to you, youd been sanctioned and you said youd been struggling to make ends meet and had been doing shoplifting. I spoke to you the other day and you said youd been in prison . Yeah. What happened there . I was stuck for money. I got caught, obviously, so i got 20 months. 20 months. For doing what . I was the driver. Conspiracy to steal. What happened . There was a leak up in the bathroom. I werent in, and the sink ran over. The plug was in, it ran over, and thats what it did. And the ceiling came down. Well, its better than the place you were in before. Oh, yeah. Quite nice here. Thats not saying much, john. I know. Can i just ask you, when you think back, you worked all your life. Thats right. Yeah, i worked from the age of 15, i6. I was born on a farm. Things should be easy now, not worse, but anyway, itll get better, wont it, i hope. Laughter jonno, are these your supplies . Yeah, i got this milk early on. Cakes, buns. Im a chocoholic. Lfieie iiwtef a peesfdflt sometimes i wake up and think, oh, shit. Its a nightmare. Sometimes i have a nice dream and i think, ahhh. But then the realisation hits me. Oh, shit. When you find a place to sleep at night, what do you look for . A bit of shelter.

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