That the admission of ukraine to nato the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation , could trigger world war three. Meanwhile, turkey has been trying to act as a mediator in this war. Buy does all of this lead the people of ukraine . Could p still prevail miss with me in the studio is our security correspondent frank gardner, and orysia lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at chatham house. And wee are also delighted to welcome professor kata ryna wolczuk, from the university of birminghams centre for russian, european and eurasian studies, Drjustin Bronk is a Senior Research fellow at the london based military think tank rusi, he is an expert in airpower and technology, and from the bbc� s Russia Service olga ivshina. Well be hearing from each of our special panel in a few minutes, but first frank is going to set the tone for this discussion by reminding us of the key recent developments and statements and what they might tell us about the risks of escalation. The war in ukraine is intensifying. After almost eight months of hard fighting and as winter fast approaches, the map of ukraine has changed several times. At the moment, though, russia still has a vast swathes of territory highlighted here in red along the southern and eastern regions of the country. But as we know, Ukrainian Forces have been carrying out highly successful counter offences, making gains beyond anyone� s predictions. Now, theres no sign of either of these two leaders, ukraines president , volodymyr zelensky, and russias president Vladimir Putin backing down. If anything, theres a risk this war could escalate both within and beyond ukraines borders. This was the head of nato this week. Russia is mobilizing Tens Of Thousands of new troops. They are trying to illegally annex new Ukrainian Lands and we have seen the indiscriminate air strikes against ukrainian cities. And then, of course, we also have heard the veiled Nuclear Threats coming from moscow. All of this makes this the most serious escalation since february. Well, the recent trigger for this escalation was the mysterious blast on russias kerch bridge. Thats the bridge that connects it to occupied crimea. That bridge was a personal project for putin. He called the Explosion Ukrainian terrorism. Translation if any more attempts are made to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory, russias response will be harsh and will be equal to the threat posed to the russian federation. Nobody should have any doubts about that. Clearly angry, he said that a red line had been crossed. Russias retaliation came in the form of dozens of deadly Missile Strikes on cities all over ukraine. The targets were mostly civilians and critical infrastructure. The aim to terrorise the population. The west called it a war crime. Putin is very much in a corner at this point. Russia has had to escalate this far into the conflict. Again, the Missile Strikes part of that. So this is now an attempt really to go all in by russia to try and overrule ukraine through this escalation strategy. So keep escalating, use more violence in your opponents, keep threatening and hope your opponent backs down. Of course, the problem here is actually that just encouraging Ukrainian Resistance and western resistance, whats perceived to be bullying. There is also, though, a deeper desire for revenge by russia that goes beyond just the crimea bridge because putins forces have been losing ground on the battlefield. Ukraines troops are better led, betterfed and better motivated. Plus, theyre getting a lot of help from nato, including precision weapons like the high mars artillery system. But and there is a but here, the more success that ukraine has on the battlefield, the more president putin reminds the world hes got a lot of Nuclear Weapons. He wants the west to abandon ukraine. And he keeps hinting at retaliation if it doesnt. This is still really classic Nuclear Deterrence signalling as it is operated between the west and russia and former soviet union since the 19505. So its correct to take it seriously, as western governments have done, because not to do so would invite further escalation from president putin to get our attention. But it is equally important not to overreact. Inside the kremlin, president putin is really a victim of his own policies. His invasion of ukraine has turned out to be an all round disaster. Russia isnt winning, and hard liners in moscow are calling for him to escalate the fight against the west. So is there any way to make him back down and pull out of ukraine . Well, i think the answer to that is that we cannot persuade him to back down. I dont think thats the way ahead. I dont think theres a strategy there that can be successful. I know biden said that were looking for the ramp off and so on. Well, and i think sanna marin nailed it when she said the ramp up is for ukraine, for russia to leave ukraine. We will not be able to do that for him. And that the reason because of that is that this is an existential war for putin. Its not a war of choice as we see it. Its an existential war for him. Its a war between russia and the west. So what about that Nuclear Option that putin keeps referring to . I think we probably need to draw a clear distinction here between the sort of massive end of day Strategic Missiles that would wipe out a city like the ones detonated over hiroshima and nagasaki. No ones talking about using those. And on the other hand, small so called tactical nukes that russia could deploy on the battlefield using a system like this. But even one of those could cause as much destruction as the blast in 2020 that obliterated beirut� s port. And then theres also ukraines Nuclear Power plant that Russian Forces have illegally seized. There remains the risk that if that was blown up, it could potentially send a Radioactive Cloud across much of europe. Military experts worry that putin could try Something Like that or escalate with a tactical nuke. But the risk of a full Scale Nuclear war is still thought to be relatively small. I dont think that were going to see Global Nuclear war. There are too many checks and balances in place in the kremlin, in london and in washington. Putin cannot fire Strategic Nuclear weapons at a whim. Well, thats little consolation to the millions of ukrainians bombed out of their homes, to those whove lost loved ones, and to a country thats being punished for resisting an unwanted invasion. Lets talk to olga ivshina from our Russia Service. Nato and the g7 countries have been meeting and restating commitment to ukraine, both in resolve and with military hardware. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin is expected to meet president erdogan of turkey. Any indications that he wants to negotiate . He any indications that he wants to negotiate . Any indications that he wants to neuotiate . , to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate but to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate but it to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate but it seems to negotiate . He is in the mood to negotiate but it seems that l to negotiate but it seems that at the moment he is only eager to negotiate on his terms. So is always the worst in ukraine are eager to accept that crimea is now crimea and those newly occupied territories are now part of russia, he will be happy to discuss that. Of course this is unacceptable at least for ukraine and probably for the worst as well. That is the trouble, if you remember there were negotiations very early on in this war in march. There was a possibility of a deal, as far as we know from kremlin, whatever was reached during the negotiations was just crossed out by mr putin. 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