Dominate the 28 billion industry in india. After five days of losses, asia looking pretty flat. Still set to a race all gains for the year. Traders recalibrating expectations after powell set higher for longer, given three sets of hotter than expected ecodata. Msci asia index trying to be in the positive but not really. The dollar index, 1264. Yields surging in asia. New highs for 2024. Tuesday fives, tens. The move index expected treasury volatility at the highest level this year. Its about the strong dollar story. Its taking a breather today. A relief for asian currencies. Ust remains elevated. You on fix steady but it has room to head lower. Paso falling past 57. Thats the lowest level since november 2022. We talk about jerome powell. This is what he had to say. Take a listen. We need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 . The recent data has clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that its likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. Right now given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, its appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work. The performance of the u. S. Economy over the past year has been quite strong. Come what may, we return remain strongly committed to returning inflation to 2 . Haslinda lets put it all in perspective and see how markets have digested this. Lets bring in the cio of dis bank. Lets start with you. Mark says no lending, no rate cut this year. You say still two. We will gravitate towards what the fed is guiding us. To rate cuts. Growth has been pretty strong. But we think the full impact of the 500 basis points of rate hikes from a year or two ago, i think the full impact will be felt later this year. That would guide the fed to relax somewhat. Haslinda what would it take to price out them the rate cuts . Lucy marquez of the view that there will be rate hikes. We will get to a world where we start considering the idea of rate hikes. At the moment, there is no sign of inflation. Powell is the biggest of and the world. The economy is strong. The labor market is strong. I think we will get to a sarah narrow a scenario where we consider rate cuts. Its not even near close to the time where you start fighting this. Do you think to cuts still this year . Windows the first cut come . What is going to justify it by then . Where is this magical disinflation coming from . It would be the second half. There should be signs of slowdown. If you look at the u. S. , you look at it in isolation. As part of the whole ecosystem of the world economy. If japan and European Central bank rates are coming down, its hard to see the fed go all in in terms of more rate hikes. Having already done 500 basis points. Mark why a cut . It doesnt have an international mandate. It doesnt have to worry about the rest of the world. Its the most important central bank in terms of monetary policy. Its economy is still strong. I get your point that alternately a strong dollar is deflationary. We are seeing no sign of that yet. The fed is repeatedly wrong. So, can it risked making this error the third time again . The fed controls the short end of the market through its fed fund policy. But it could be a situation where the dollar becomes a lot stronger. Because of the reassessment of the trajectory of rate cuts as well as longterm use may go up. That could be a deflationary force. Given that inflation hopefully is not going to rear its head and go above 3 , i think theres room for the fed to ease off somewhat. Haslinda no agreement when it comes to cuts or not. Theres agreement that yields are trending higher. You say that theres room, a lot of room for yields to go up. Mark i think the long and will go higher. 10year gilts above 5 . The neutral rate is higher than people have considered the last three years. We are going into a world of higher yields at some point. Whether we get hikes next or cuts, i dont know. Theres no justification for cuts anytime soon. The only way is if we see some severe slowdown in the economy. None of the risks we are talking about at the moment are going to provide that. They are not systemic enough. Commercial real estate, not systemic. It needs to be something thats going to derail that. Or it will take time. A stronger dollar will timidly be deflationary. We are nowhere close to that scenario right now. I think yields are going higher first. Haslinda where are yields headed . We think the slower the cut rates, the more the long and will go up. This is due to a lot of supply in treasuries. That will put upward pressure on longterm use. They will start to cut slowly. From a portfolio construction perspective, we are comfortable. We are quite happy that is higher for longer. The way we guide our clients is really to deploy excess cash today. The way we do it is, income generation part of the portfolio, three to five Year Investment grade bonds is giving you north of 6 yield. Theres an anchor for your portfolio. Really, even if the fed were to raise rates as mark would contend, its ok. Locking in 6 plus. Haslinda in terms of stocks, where do you deploy your money . Higher yields hurts stocks. Thats to be expected. How do you deploy your money . We think what weve seen in the stock market last year was really driven by technology. We think theres going to be a broadening of the rally. Technology will still be are structural will wait because the secular growth trends. Ai and what have you. We think other sectors are really very reasonable. The talk mark stock market is not in a bubble. Financials are trading at 10 times the price of earnings. Energy. Haslinda you are liking stocks. You say, stocks are the way to go. Mark im completely with you. Haslinda finally mark its no fun talking about what we agree on. I agree within the broader rally. I want to know about how far its going to run. I thought it would go to emerging markets at some point. Ive been wrong on the going to the hong kong stocks. Thats clearly not work. I think things like brazilian stocks looked exceptionally discounted now. They have the whole commodities story. Yet they are seeing no benefits to the narrative thats trading around the develop market world. When do you think the emergingmarket story works . Weve been waiting for a long time for emerging markets to come back. The strong dollar, high Interest Rates in the u. S. Once that tapers off, there should be some sort of outflow from the u. S. Market into emerging markets. China is the biggest one within the market. In the case of china, valuations are supercheap. We think the downside is fairly limited. For china to rise, including asia, we need to see really strong policy response. Sustained policy response on the physical side. Weve yet to see that. Once that unfolds, at the same time the u. S. Dollar picks up. I think that will be a good time. Haslinda theres a lot of optimism between the two of you. What might break if yields continue to climb higher . If it was to climb a lot higher, it has to be the result of inflation rearing its ugly head. If that were to happen, we would reassess the bullish outlook that we are adopting today. But to see inflation going back up before 5 , probably not going to come to pass. There was supply chain disruptions. Today, there isnt. So i dont think we will go back there. Thats the main reason. Basically inflation. Haslinda also ust exceptionalism. You can understand if asia asian policymakers break out in hives if the dollar remains elevated. We saw how the philippines peso is also at record levels. Mark i think Dollar Strength is a concern over time. The thing that might be interesting, it sounds like you are open to the idea that these rate cuts will come. That will be problematic in the longer term. One of the reasons i have this view is that i dont think higher yields breaks anything this year. Ultimately, this no landing will mean a hard landing at some point in the future. That is something way down the line. I think the tail risk that im watching for might shock you. This idea that, maybe the fed wont be the exceptional one. Maybe what we need to change our narrative on his other Central Banks cutting is much as we think. I wonder whether our pessimism around growth might be reaching the bottom. We know European Growth has been terrible. Maybe european and chinese growth starts picking up as well and we get a general tailwind and we go, no one will cut much. In that world, dollar stops strengthening. As people broaden out the risk investments, thats deleveraging from the worlds reserve currency. In that world, without rate cuts, we see the dollar start to weaken. Thats where we extend the bond market even further. Haslinda perspective to consider. Thank you. Still ahead, we discuss Spending Priorities with the new zealand Prime Minister as he tries to tame inflation. An exclusive chat with the incoming viacom vice chair about efforts to build a media giant in india. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. Pmi f inched up its expectations for Global Economic growth this year to 3. 2 . It points to strength in the u. S. And some emerging markets while warning the outlook remains cautious amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Urging china to find ways to offset headwinds from its property crisis. We have an economy that has potentially still relatively weak domestic demand but is growing. It would be an increased reliance on the export sector. That is something, in the context of very tight trade tensions, could be complicated. So certainly in the interest of the chinese economy to develop ways of sustaining domestic demand. Haslinda the u. S. Has repeated its concerns about what it sees as industrial overcapacity in the worlds second largest economy. Chinese officials have pushed back against washingtons claims. Jail, its hard to imagine that china will change its policies because of the u. S. No. It isnt. Theyve been forceful in pushback of a lot of these claims recently on industrial overcapacity. Weve seen this push both from the u. S. Last week during the treasury secretarys visit to beijing. Weve also seen the german chancellor bring this up as he met with chinas leader just this week. Its really that pushback in terms of xi jinping saying, actually exports particularly in the green space have actually helped drag down global inflation. You are seeing a lot of pushback from china on these efforts. Haslinda so what exactly did she shipping say about the benefits of chinese exports . He did say it was all due to demand. What he is saying is that we still have all of this developed infrastructure to push out the products that the world wants. He pointed to it in his meeting with the german chancellor specifically. Things like solar panels, electric vehicles, how that has ultimately been beneficial for the world. Its all combining to show you that really china is prepared to be forceful about this pushback on claims over industrial overcapacity that the u. S. And europe are pushing right now. Haslinda thank you for that perspective. Lets bring in the cio of dbs. He says recent policy meetings in china provide room for optimism. The question is whether its time to perhaps ramp up investment in the market. Very disappointing. Stockmarkets in china hong kong. But valuations are really at trump levels. We do see minimal downside. Now for markets to really go back up, we need to see a catalyst. Personal consumption is the key. We think china has the means to really bring about a fiscal policy that is strong, sustained, and that will shift the consumer into a more confident consumer. So we need to see that before we would add more exposure into china hong kong. Haslinda whats the place or how best to play china in terms of exposure to the market . In china, there are income generating stocks. Large banks. They pay you pretty decent dividend yield. In fact, very attractive yield. We do like the Technology Platform companies. They are in a very weak space now. Thats the way to be positioned in china. Haslinda reckless framework, we saw how the csi 2000 took a hit. Down 11 over the course of two days because of concerns of ipos. How are you looking at such . Do you read deeper into that . If you look across the world, its not just china. Its the bigger companies, the profitable companies. Companies that demonstrate what we call more quality. They are doing well. Even in the u. S. , smallcap stocks have been lagging big time. So its quite a universal. The way we are guiding our clients is, by into profitable companies. Those with deep modes. Strong brands. These are the kind of companies we think will hold up much better in a downtrend. But it will do very well on the uptrend. Haslinda why play china when there are better alternatives like india, korea . Valuations is one main reason why you want to be in china. I know all of us got it wrong two years ago when we said, china will come back. But the fact is that it has not really been falling in terms of valuations. Its really rough today. We are not going to add exposure until we see some really strong physical response. As it stands today, you have to hold onto the best in Class Companies and hold onto that. Haslinda we are seeing continued weakness in the chinese on. Some suggesting you will see 7. 3. What are you looking at that what are you looking at . We are getting mixed signals. Is not a china currency in isolation. Its really Dollar Strength. The dollar is strong against the euro, the asian block in particularly. So thats really all the other currencies in asia were also weakening on the back of this. Not necessarily a china specific issue. Haslinda even as we are speaking right now, the offshore yuan rising to the highest since 2019. What do you make of these movements in the market . 5 is still subdued. I dont think we are that constant in this point in time, of Interest Rates in asia for example spiking up. Haslinda in terms of chinese growth, you are still at 5 . Ubs downgraded that projection. What makes you optimistic . If you look at the longterm drivers of china, personal consumption should come back. Savings remains very high. When we see policy response from the government down the road, i think that that will help growth be sustained. Haslinda we hit even more if trump were to come back to power with that 60 tax on chinese products. Its not pretty. Haslinda weve been there before, trump in power. Both sides are in agreement that they want to make it more difficult for china. As you can see from the export sector, its very competitive on the green energy thing. Electric vehicles, solar panels. China has an edge in these sectors. Haslinda we shall see. Plenty more ahead. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. Do you want to close out . Should i . Normally id hold. But. Taking the gains is smart here, right . Feel more confident with stock ratings from j. P. Morgan analysts in the chase app. When youve got a decision to make. The answer is j. P. Morgan wealth management. Haslinda welcome back. Bitcoin bulls say the crypto token could hit the 70,000 level before the socalled event scheduled for april 19. How it might affect prices. The olympics, sporting world cups, leap years. Bitcoin halving happens every four years. In the crypto world, it means a boon for prices. In a nutshell, bitcoin halving means fewer new tokens are issued. Thats because bitcoin minors receive 50 less of a reward for doing so. At bitcoins launch, miners receive 50 new coins per box. Past 2024, that will be cut to 3. 125 bitcoin instead. In the past, weve seen prices spike following the event. In 2012, the token jumped by 8000 . This time around, the prospects for further gains are unclear. Some analysts say it could trickle trigger upside of 80 . Others argue the event is already baked in as bitcoin has risen to press records this year. That brings to mind a familiar phrase. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Haslinda that was bloombergs annabelle droulers. A check on our right now. Pretty much green across the board. Bitcoin, 6437 right now. Ether up i seven tons of 1 . Bitcoin reached new highs after previous halvings mitigated the periodic drop in mining rewards and the increase in the cost of doing business. The event this month coming after bitcoin more than quadrupled since november 2022. We are also keeping an eye on chinese banks on the back of fitch revising its outlook for Chinese State banks to negative. Securities down by more than 4 . That drop dropping the most since 2021 after the csrc said that it is probing the company. Still to come, the new zealand Prime Minister says hes determined to get his countrys books in order. More on his Spending Priorities, next. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. China markets heading to lunch. Chinese stocks recovery stalling so much. Csi 2000 index recovering about 5 right now after slumping 11 over a two day time. Take a look at where we are good chinese yuan. The fix said it was stable after the pboc loosened its grip on the currency just yesterday. Bloomberg has learned that Morgan Stanley is planning to start cutting about 50 Investment Banking jobs in the asiapacific region this week with 80 of the reductions in hong kong. Lets get more from jonas bergman. What do we know about this . Jonas as you said, they are planning to cut about 50 jobs in the asiapacific region. Most of them were 80 focused in hong kong, Mainland China. This is a continuation. Weve seen cuts from Morgan Stanley and other big banks over the past three years. This is of course due to the geopolitical concerns. The protracted housing crisis in china and the sluggish economy. The deal spigots have been shut off both from Mainland China and in hong kong as well as the expected business of taking Chinese Companies public in new york which was always the big cash cow. So its a grim time to be a china focused investment banker right now. Haslinda you have to wonder when we will see the end of it. Are we expecting more . Jonas its hard to tell. Its right after the First Quarter now. So the latest results arent in from any of those big banks. Morgan stanley saw a 12 drop in revenue from the asiapacific region. So they are getting down to fairly low levels in terms of staffing these tasks. So we will see. They all still maintain their focus on maintaining a presence in Mainland China as well as hong kong. So they will need to keep staff up, should