Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Asia Edge 20160704 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Asia Edge July 4, 2016

If you have to pick the big winners, precious metal producers. I will tell you why in just a moment. Dollar, it aussie opened that much weaker levels for obvious reasons. It has now retraced its steps. Notet want to mention this midmorning, they believe they see more aussie weakness ahead. Whenever we Start Talking about it, it happens. The other market story i want to mention, the equity markets. These contracts are obsession highs are obsession highs. Our off session highs. A very good start to the trading week. Wonka, the stock was halted in december amid a power struggle. We have the story. The pressure really on for van. E. Back at theok reasons why it was suspended in the first place, you could call it a hostile takeover. The president this is what the president has been calling it. Less than 5 to 23. 5 and became the biggest shareholder, pushing out china resources. The chairman could have a negative impact on the Credit Rating and reputation. Vqnke is the largest traded property developer. They have been trying their best to restructure and find ways to wiggle out of the grasp in the last few months up of so. The resumption of shares today. Yvonne it seems like they will not hold the director removal proposal. There is this stock sale lineup with shenzhen metro. Movess is one of the forvanke to reduce the groep. Vranke tothe moves by reduce the grip. It would make Shanghai Metro Group the biggest shareholder. Some groups do not approve of the strategy. These are the Hong Kong Listed shares. Rose. Ng kong listed once they also gained on thursday, the last day before the friday holiday. Continues because of the discussion to get rid of 10 of the 11 board members. Vanke has rejected this proposal. The pressure is still on. Yvonne the plot thickens. Lets check on some other stories. After a dealment collapses. Shares fell as much as 29 when trading resumed this morning. West china cement has lost almost half of its value over the last two trading sessions combined. An increasing number of economists predict chinese banks will receive a government bailout. Nine of 15 responded in the latest Bloomberg Survey to say they expect the mayo. Move. Ect the chinese lenders are grappling with the growing mountain of debt after years of flooding the market with cheap credit. Brexit cannot legally happen without a vote in parliament. Ifroup threatening action government starts the process without consulting mps. Position is that it is a decision for whoever becomes Prime Minister. We have been talking about this morning. The Australian Election delivered no clear result over the weekend. Lets get over to paul allen in sydney. What will we see . Say. It is very hard to it could be a minimum of 13 days before we know any result. It could be longer if there are recounts. We are in a state of flux. With 67 seatsling and the labour party 71. A lot of things have to fall his way. The reason for his confidence, pulling votes often go to the liberal party. Leaders of both parties have been speaking to the independents. Thosess bridges cross benches have yet to declare one side or the other. We are in a complete state of flux. Voters have opted for a total policy paralysis. This is the worst possible outcome for them. It could mean widening deficits first rally a and a risk for australia and the risk for the trading for the Credit Rating as well. Yvonne if that does not happen, is the job on the line . Deliver inot the 48 hours, there has been a lot of discussion that Malcolm Turnbull could face an internal revolt. There are some examples in recent history that he may not. The former Prime Minister very nearly lost his seat after the first term of his government. He went on to win two more terms after that. A very if he manages to form a minority government, can he manage it and it and can he fend off a potential revolt within his own ranks . Much. thank you so we have been talking about australian politics with our guest this morning. Malcolm turnbull is not delivering. He has a credibility problem. He came in in september as a man who could deliver victory for the liberal party. The one thing you have to be in the liberal party is a winner. All will be forgiven if you are a winner. He is not seen as a winner. This will be a real problem in the coming months. Zales says there will be some volatility in the neck few days before things settle down. In the next couple of days before things settle down. I think the volatility will be relatively mild. Think it will be shortlived. We will see something similar here in australia where there is an initial kneejerk reaction. Within a few days, things will come down. Calm down. Yvonne how long can the next government survive . That is a question we put to our next guest. Not impossible for a government to survive in a minority situation. We have had that in some states in australia and weve had that at the federal level when Julia Gillard was part minister. Was Prime Minister. , the green andd independent gave labor the ability to govern. This time it is unclear as to who and what demand they will make on the government of the day. Yvonne that is the word from asia. China faces a 500 billion bailout for its Banking System if a recent survey is right. We will break down the figures for you. No clear winner as Australian Elections come down to the wire. Decision made by the rba. Latest headlines. Baghdads worst attack in a year has killed 115 people. A truck exploded underscoring the ability to extremists strike. Tremists to with the streets filled with people. China has announced six days of naval exercises. Where games will start on tuesday wargames will start on tuesday in the south china sea. The exercises, had of arbitrations on a disputed water from the hague on july 12. China has said it will ignore the outcome. Demonic rapprochement between israel the diplomatic rapprochement. It will be distributed this week. Global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Look at what is driving the markets. Really great to have you. Calm hereing relative in markets. There is an uncertainty. What does this mean . No one really knows how long this Brexit Process is going to take. Meanwhile, life goes on. If you look at the brexit market volatility, and oil prices would be stable, they are concerned about the stock prices the currency markets are suggesting. At the same time, a reliance on Central Banks coming to the rescue time and again. Mark carney is supposed to speak this week. Yvonne you talk about oil being quite resilient but you continue to see bond yields petty record lows. Head to record lows. Gold is really holding those gains. A still pretty conflicted picture. The market is expecting Central Banks to continue with its negative Interest Rate policy. From that perspective, we expect the volume to drop lower. Developmentrs of markets already in negative territory. It will push more investors to a riskier end of the bond market. Way to play in a negative yield environment. It helps to put fuel on default rates. There is a great environment for proper debt and that is why investors are chasing the market right now. Yvonne the focus has shifted back on dividends. What sectors are you looking at . We are still looking at utilities, not so much the banks. The credit quality is in question. Asia, theyies in belong to the growth sector and still coming up with reliant and respectable dividends. While were looking for dividends, it does not have to be defensive. It can be cyclically sensitive. Yvonne is the hurt going to be in the pound . Some people say the real money investors have not even jumped back in to trade this. Could it have further to fall . Possibly. Adjust. Eed currency to has the pound been able to address the issue . Position in terms of the Central Bank Policy . A lot of uncertainty in this election outcome in australia. The kiwi dollar and aussie dollar might reach parity. Do you see this . I do not pretend to be an expert in australia. But what we have seen is similar to what we have seen, the established parties are losing support. The more nationalistic parties are gaining support. That will create a lot more challenges. Happen, central bankers are expected to come to the rescue and that is where the currency market could reflect that possibility. Yvonne we are heading to record lows. What does this mean for where they can go next . You could go up because of this Credit Rating at risk. We see the rba coming to the rescue as well. There is risk on the downside. Aussie bonds considered highyield. Attractionnatural for investors to move into that space. The risk for rba is to cut more. Yvonne stick with us. Next, hedge funds love everything has changed. We will have more about that. This is bloomberg. Yvonne two years ago chinas online car marketplace was attracting support from hedge funds. But now, that is against the. S. Traded stock this onetime darling it seems like investors feel underwhelmed by this. This was one of the tech darlings of the internet boom in china. , this greater exposure to international investors. Just a couple of years ago, the thatrged from 120 is when Tiger Management made a wager for a 15 stake in the company. That was in late 2014. Within a year, it has unloaded all of its shares in the company. Investor interest taking on a different nature altogether. Shows the interest has reached record highs. Despite shares having lost half of the value last year. It is down about 45 over the past 12 months. Been spending more to compete with its Major Chinese rival. This is a company that has been called the chinese craigslist, the chinese cars. Com. Revenue growth is projected to growth dropped 35 . Furtherpected to ease to 20 by the time we get to 2017. Basically, what we are seeing, investors are not getting excited about what the company has managed to deliver after so much hype. Yvonne you cannot really discount the economic slowdown. Haidi that is right. When you have the Consumer Spending element in play, the economic slowdown is adding another layer of skepticism over this company. A very difficult operating environment. Demand has very high exposure to the economy. Investors may see a longterm benefit to the company, but they do not have high hopes in the shortterm. Fromes have the support chinas big tech giant. They hold about a 35 stake together. The company is trying to shift its growth focus toward offline. They will have to pick things up very quickly. It has missed the streets expectations in three of the past four quarters. Yvonne not looking good. In sydney, we are still in this election deadlock. We are seeing shares a third of 1 . Asian stocks rallying for a fourth day overall. A lot of emphasis on Central Banks. Stocks. Boosting hong kong, one of the biggest leaders today on this monday. Up about 1. 7 on the hang seng. We will get the latest on japans reopening after the break. Get ready for the rio Olympic Games by switching to xfinity x1. Show me gymnastics. X1 lets you search by sport, watch nbcs highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. Im getting ready. Are you . X1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversals coverage of the rio Olympic Games. Call or go online today to switch to x1. You guys be good[ bark ] ill [ bark ]later bye. See ya pal. Ever wonder what your pets do when you leave home . [ laughing ] aw you cutie pie. Aw. Aw. Aw. Aw. [ barking ] [ washing machine running ] partys on know what your pets are up to with xfinity home. Xfinity. The future of awesome. See the secret life of pets, in theaters july 8th. Asiapacific markets have climbed back to where they were before the drop triggered by brexit. They rallied for a fourth day on expert it on expectations Central Banks will increase monetary stimulate monetary stimulus. Shares in chinas Largest Property Developers slumped by the 10 daily limit in shenzhen. Halted ine was december as its biggest shareholders fought for control. Tumbling innt is hong kong west chinas cement is tumbling in hong kong. Shares fell as much as 29 . They were halted last week on speculation the deal was in trouble. West china cement has lost almost half its value in the last two trading sessions combined. Global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Looking quite good. Before i show you what is happening across asia, have a look at this. Seepossibility we might parity. Every time we Start Talking about it, it actually retracts. E rmb. O bring up the regeneron dollar for the rest of 2016. That is something to watch. Asia is looking like this. We reversed all the post brexit losses. Very solid session, volumes are quite heavy when you look at hang seng. Elsewhere, volumes are still quite dim. A very good way to start the week. Some of the names in australia. Not surprising, gold, silver, platinum. That is your intraday look. These threend why are among the best performing commodities in the first half. Yvonne australia is in the political limbo. Elections over the weekend delivered no clear results. Joining us now is our next guest. Peter, really great to have you. How shocked are you buy this uncertainty right now . They were saying it was going to be net in neck. Peter that is right. Looking like we will have a Hung Parliament here. That is only the third Hung Parliament we have had in the history of the federal parliament. It looks like it will split both ways. It does not look like either of the two major parties are going to be able to govern at right. It is still likely the coalition will form a government with the support of a number of independent and minor party cross bench. That should probably firm up later in the week, i think. Yvonne how much of a blow has this been for Malcolm Turnbull . Minister going into the election, his support base had collapsed in the early part of the year. He was faced with a difficult decision, either to call an early election or to wait until the end of the year. He faced a difficult senate. The cross bench senators were in no mood to negotiate with them so it did force hand to go to an early election. That has not played out well. He clearly thought he would be able to ride the election into government, albeit with a reduced majority. That has not played out. He has been severely punished. The opposition has outperformed expectations. The media commentators, and some members of his own party. These economic policies, it is quite limited when it comes to the differences between the major parties on fiscal issues. What is going to be the ultimate deciding factor . Aspects to that question. What will be the decider in terms of forming a government . The cross benches tend to lean toward the conservative side of politics. The new members of the new centrist party emerging out of South Australia probably likely to give support to the party that secures the most number of state seats. The broader question about economic policy, neither of the major parties have an economic policy. The most significant issue was basically a conservative set of tax cuts to businesses to do a bit of stimulus. The Prime Minister one into the election with expansive rhetoric on innovation. He never really spelled out what that was going to look like. Yvonne peter, you have done quite a bit of research when it comes to media and politics in australia. We really have seen social media play part quite an Important Role from both parties. Has it done anything to shift the political town . Political tone. Speak to this broader trend we have seen. Think the degree of populist politics in australia is more modest than in those two jurisdictions. It has been relatively robust over the past decades but it has not been the driver toward strange political parties. A proportion of the movement is around some of these antiparty, antipolitics kind of groups. The social media role has been interesting. On thee trying to focus specific electorates and constituencies. The impact is questionable. They have worked hard, but they did not have a lot of material to work with. One of the key ingredients is having a message against which you can target those constituencies with. Labor was able to do that with regards to defending public health, which has been part of the major themes they have worked on. The liberal party racked up a little bit of ire by using quite an awkward Snapchat Filter to push at young voters this issue of economic plans for jobs and growth which became a source of great humor. A ows you there is still. Vonne one last question we have seen this revolving door of Prime Ministers coming out of australia. Six Prime Ministers in eight years. Is turnbull the one to lead australia forward . Peter it might actually be neither of those two. The current interpretation of the results, he has done well. He has outperformed expectations. He is in a strong position to obtain the leadership position. It is much harder to unseat a sitting leader of the labour party. He will make a strong argument, which is true that the degree of performance was in correlation with the unity. He is likely to be the leader of the opposition in the next three years. Malcolm turnbull is likely to lead a government into an office, but he is likely to suffer from a challenge from the central right of his party. He leads a very fractured and divided Political Party and one of the arguments that will be used to unseat him is that he has not been able to unify the party because he tends to be perceived on the left of this party. His party has a socially conserv

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