Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Asia Edge 20160725 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Asia Edge July 25, 2016

The best bull market as investors await the doj decision. Declinestraight month in exports. We were looking at 11 . The most all is report asked for 9 . Its better than every single report out there. Is the ninth straight month of decline. Japan is not exporting to its Major Trading partners. How really it is a global wide problem as well for japan. Japan at the bottom of the heap here. You just look across the region. Its almost a global wide problem. You have everything but the u. S. , emerging markets, not running on all cylinders. When you look at the import , we have a graphic that goes along with this. The price of oil has contributed. A lot of this has to do with the drop in oil. The orange line takes you from 110 at the left side of your screen down to 40 at the bottom and right about 45. Of course, japan is importing a lot of its energy needs. Which is why we hope that this too shall pass. If the price continues to fall from here, it will not pass for a while. Angie yeah. Reporter and they are importing a lot of deflation, angie. Angie and anxiety that the boj has to look at that deflation goal. Lets break down exports here. Which sectors specifically will weaken . Chinaer exports to across the board really. Inyou want to put it all one. Exports to china. Exports to asia. In a row we saw a doubledigit decline in exports to china, third month in a row of a doubledigit decline in exports to asia. Its also important to have a look at just broadly, the yen 10 , 15 weaker as well compared to this time last year. When you look at the eu, it is not as bad. Im curious what the trade numbers will look like. Is part of the u. K. The eu. We had that horrible report on friday from the u. K. 11 stronger against the pound. Angie speaking of the yen, how much did that come into play with falling exports . Very hard to separate what the impact was, but certainly when you look at june, the yen gained against every single one of these except the brazilian currency, the riel. You do understand why japan was the bottom of the heap. Angie ok, how does this all changed or not the action plan of the boj . David they were talking about the need do they move the goalposts . As far as a tangible action plan is concerned, it would not be everyone, but the vast majority of economists we have asked 41 of them. 32 think there will be a move, whether it is a dtf increase, expanding the Monetary Base angie helicopter money . I dont know how many people think that. David that is a bit sensitive. I think that is what we saw the yen decrease. , it is allowed. They might tweet it. They might tweet it. They might tweak it. Watch the yen. Angie oh, my gosh. Watch that yen. It is ached in. It is baked in. Martin schulte says the of a government Martin Schultz abe government will pull out all of the stops. In japan to get the economy moving, you need as big a lever as possible. The government is piling up numbers in terms of what will be the fiscal from meals fiscal stimulus, what will be driving the economy . Shifting to a big debate right now. Domestic demand will be supported from this year by Government Spending and this is where investors are positioning themselves. Sayshief strategist inflation will play a big role in the decision. On the monetary easing side of the things the devil will be in the details it depends on what happens to be japanese yen. My guess is we probably will not get anything on deep a negative deposit rates. I suspect we will see increased etf buying to the tune of ¥6 trillion, and i would not be surprised to see more on the j reits, to be honest. Says them fitzsimmons yen will take a hit if the boj delivers after its policy week. G next Market Expectations are probably around that 20 level. But obviously on the back of that nikkei report it could be as much as ¥30 trillion. But increasing the asset purchases and the purchases of thing, that sort of that is consensus within the market. If the boj does under deliver, there is a lot of envisioning. Potential he we could see quite a big selloff. Word from that is the asia. The pokemon go effect may be over for nintendo with shares plunging as much as 3 . Wee eugene it tomorrow have eugene with us. What is behind this slump . Reporter sure. Friday night, nintendo put out a press release. This is what the shares of reacting to. Nintendo basically said do not expect pokemon go to impact earnings by a lot. It said the Financial Impact would be limited. That is the exact language that they used. They said they are not expecting to revise their annual profit forecast. For the time being, nintendo is tempering expectations. I said this in my article. I said this on this program as well. A veryo actually has small stake in pokemon go. The game was developed by niatec company spun out of google. Pokemon is a separate combo from nintendo. About a third of pokemon. Pokemon owns all of the characters in the game. They will get of licensing fees, a lot of licensed revenue, but nintendo basically will get about a third of that. So, nintendo came out friday morning and say, hey, do not expect too much from pokemon go on our financials. Estimates of about 13 of pokemon go sales will go to nintendo. That is a far cry from i think what the market was expecting. Again, nintendo shares doubled in the last two and a half weeks. About 20 billion of market value added to those shares. Today you are seeing it down 20 at the lunch break. Yeah. Next thing is the for nintendo shares . Reporter sure, the game came out friday in japan. The next big catalyst will be when the game is released in china or korea. Keep in mind both of those countries have restrictions to the google map data that pokemon go uses to make the game run basically. So, there is a lot of speculation about whether it will be in those markets. Is it is, its a very large market for those games. Decides that. Itll just be a earnings on wednesday. Angie sounds good. Thank you for that. Lets get to tokyo. Have these stocks, of their earlier high. Thats right. You can see it is a little flat at the moment. Sector is also weaker. Its a little stronger in the agent trade. And telcos have been sold off all day, down a quarter of 1 . We had seven point 6 billion shares changed on the regional index. 91. 3 . Supportthere is solid on consumer sales. Jpmorgan has come through with a call on casinos, saying the gross gaming revenue in macau should turn positive year on year by the fourth quarter. You can see galaxy and sands doing quite well. Sands china is one of the best performers on the hang seng. A bit of a stitch up for the cow. You see good buying coming through in australia. New zealand adds record highs. A very solid day in the philippines and japan being supported, of course, by that weaker yen. There is a switch out of taiwan. On stocks in singapore. That is taking a bit of the shine of the index today. Angie . Angie thank you for that. Verizon is set to buy yahoo 44 . 8 billion. The announcement could come before mondays trading begins in new york. The deal is said to include yahoo S Real Estate assets. You who will continue to hold stakes and alibaba and yahoo japan. The Global Demand for smartphones may be waning but while way seems to be bucking the trend. Awe may be bucking the trend. It beat samsung and apple in china last year. Shares surging the most in 20 years after the company said it will have a pretax charge of 716 million from its reorganization. Assets andng down new store openings as part of his multiyear turnaround. Early elections, saying the government plans a multibilliondollar Infrastructure Fund to keep growth on track. The government did try to limit the economic fallout from the failed coup. What were saying to Global Investors is this time has come and gone and the national will and the will of the citizens has destroyed of the citizens has destroyed the plotters. Life is back to normal in turkey and you can continue your longterm investments. We will eliminate obstacles before you. We are laying out the turquoise carpet in front of investors. We have all kinds of tax incentives and we are giving priority to valueadded investments. Angie coming up later this hour, g20 leaders vowed to get confidence in the Global Economy back on track. We will be live inching do for you we will be live for you with all of the details. Week thathis be the they pull the trigger and have more stimulus . We will discuss the bojs next move. This is bloomberg. Angie a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. A new Zealand Company plans to boost staff and its u. S. Peopleies in unit by 650 this year. The japanese people want a after adding bankers from the royal bank of scotland. About theere raised parent Firm Financial strength. The insurer has put forth an offering of 100 million, a portion of which would go toward the chinese conglomerate that bought it last year. It turned negative last year because of what it called the drag on the Credit Profile of high debt leverage. For monday, the new 10 minutes session will include a random close from the final two minutes. Some brokers are said to have prescriptions on amending orders. It is designed to reduce volatility. Central banks in the spotlight this week. While rates are expected to remain steady, there is mounting speculation the boj will expand stimulus. Lets bring in norman chan from oreana private wealth. Loves surprising the market. Is it going to be bad news . Norman i think this time probably the direction will be easier because he wants to work with the government on the fiscal stimulus. At they will be really surprised and sit on their hands again its not going to do too well for the Japan Economy and the stock market. Think how much do you that the market has priced in the yen move . Norman it has priced in a little bit. It is almost like two yens. Angie it is not at 99 at least. Norman yes, of course. Can break athey further negative. Angie so, you think not and or but and and . Norman i think that they will be buying etfs, as well as further reduce the Interest Rate a little bit more. Angie what does this mean for the equity market in japan . Will be very helpful to the japanese stock market. Angie we did see that any it expanded for the night straight month and a in a row. Should yes, i think they allow the u. S. To drop a little bit more. Otherwise japan is still suffering from an overly strong yen. At week we saw the last opposition comment from the u. S. And the rest of the world. Therefore, i hope that japan will be able to correct a little bit more. And that will allow the japanese stock market to catch up with the rest of the world. Angie what about the liquidity for the rest of the world, especially if they buy etfs . Norman i think it is more of a jester. Also, you can see that the boj is actually working with the government. Driving, i both think the effectiveness will be higher. Is one thingere about thinking it is kind to happen and another thing about agreeing with it. There is sentiment out there that japan is doing fine. That it does not have to act right now. The japanesenk economy is actually not doing too bad. If they sit on her hands again, im afraid in the shortterm the japanese yen is going to react by rising again, and thats not going to be good for the economy and the stock market. Angie what you think of the credibility of abe . Just one three elections and credibility is improving. The boj has been a little difficult to predict. I think the reputation of the boj is a little bit on the low side. Hopefully they will do something this time to improve that. Angie a right, very briefly, if we do see action on the 29th, what sectors could be most benefited . Norman the yen, first of all. But i think more importantly, the domestic economy recovering momentum. Falls, it will help the japanese economy recover to a more Inflection Point and then domestic stocks will do fine as well. Right, but then look at those consumer driven stocks in the market. Norman chan, lets continue this conversation. We will bring back all of the other Central Banks doing some things maybe not this week, maybe in december. We will talk about that when we get you back. All right, coming up. Flunked by the fed. Two months before being included in the imf reserve currency trips up all of the details next. This is bloomberg. Angie welcome back. You are watching asia edge. Im angie lau. Just before the u. N. Was supposed to be included in a basket of reserve currencies, yuan just before the was supposed to be included in a basket of reserve currency, questions. Currency has to be safe, which they have not been able to instill that confidence as yet. The currency has declined 3 this year and is slated to decline further. If you are a haven currency, you have to be stabilized at some time. You cannot have an association of declines and still hope to attract haven status. For now, maybe not so much. If they allow free markets moves, that will take away any safe haven pretensions the currency may have, at least in the short term. So, the currency is not really footing now. What they can do is try to stabilize the currency, allow some sort of last week we saw slightly awkward fixings which not follow market moves. If nothing, they can at least instill confidence in the market fairlye yuan is a marketdriven currency. Robin, thankght, you for that. We are looking forward to business in tokyo. What we are seeing is japanese shares advancing. It is waiting to see if the boj makes its move on the 29th this friday. Of course, we will get the latest on japanss real opening as we see asia and stocks rise on a weaker yen. This is bloomberg. Hey hows it going, hotcakes . Hotcakes. This place has hotcakes. So why arent they selling like hotcakes . With comcast Business Internet and wifi pro, they could be. Just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and youll reach your customers where their eyes are already on their devices. Order up. Its more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. You dont see that every day. Introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. Comcast business. Built for business. Angie top stories at this hour the asia and benchmark the an benchmark pullback. Investors awaiting policy decisions i the boj. Todays japanese trade figures showing exports are still weak, following for a ninth straight month in june. And though nintendo shares falling toy percent. That is after they released a statement saying the Financial Impact from hit game pokemon go will not be significant. Theyre trying to manage expectations ahead of their earningsrter release. s operating margin of 212 . The company used networking care premium phones, helping it to beat apple and samsung last year. This is bloomberg. Of lets get to the latest in the markets. For that, we go to juliet sally. Juliet we are seeing risk on in the region, particularly in japan with new zealand looking quite strong. There has been a switch out in stocks also in taiwan. That has taken a little bit of the shine off the overall index. Japan has come back after the lunch break and given a few of its earlier gains. Fromurse, the big fall nintendo weighing on the broader index, even though we have the yen weakening. In australia, there has been a pickup in retail sales. And new zealands market is at a record high today. Looking at south asia, a mixed bag. Market goingasia up by a quarter of 1 . There has been a call on the casinos by jpmorgan, saying that the revenue should be better youre an year in the fourth quarter. They are a little bit mixed. They are watching the big plunge and nintendo will share rise. Nintendo is still saying that the Financial Impact of pokemon go is quite limited. The overall gain on nintendo cents pokemon go launched is about 10 . Mcdonalds coming under pressure. After the watching that yahoo this is the state of play in a sian markets at lunchtime. Bank governors have reiterated a pledge to use all policy tools. John mckenzie is there for us. Tom, what were the key concerns voiced at the summit . John front and center was weak Global Growth and what tools to employ to lift back growth. You talking about policy makers wanting to deploy all tools. The focus is very much on fiscal and structural reforms. Not just monetary policy. Looming over this the ongoing uncertainties over the longterm impacts of brexit. Antiglobalism sentiment. Its being articulated in brexit, being articulated in the u. S. With the rise of donald trump. I was lucky enough to talk to the president s of the world banks about this issue enough and also the sector general, and i got their views on Global Growth. We wanted to give good information, good news to people for a long time. , we thought the u. S. Was solid, the european union, the eurozone seem to be doing better. It looks like Global Growth well be renewed once again. I think that we are going to have some weaker performances, especially in the european theater. Exit, but also because the recovery has been weaker than we thought. Tom angie, it did not seem that were dominated by talk of austerity. The discussions were very much focused on providing fiscal support. And despite the fact that the communique that comes off the back of this is not binding, we would probably expect governments to get more money in the pockets of families in developing countries. So, those are some likely outcomes of this g20 summit, angie. Angie can we get any more clarity, tom, on when britain might start official negotiations about is to parch or its departure . Tom that is a question and has been a question for days. Here. W exchequer was we spoke to the commissioner in charge of the eu financial affairs. He told us that the timing is crucial. Its up to them to evaluate that. It represents huge work. It is something we have to manage for ourselves. We have to prepare negotiations. Not too much time. And one factor is predictability. Whatever the time is. I think at one stage, we must know. He thinks that we will hear the British Government in september. French finance minister wants to see this triggered by the end of the year. He says there must be certainty and clarity around this issue. Ocd. So heard from the saying we still do not know what model they want to deploy. Also the attempted coup in turkey and the ramifications of that. Other geopolitical events. Curbrism, how they can some money flows. Also tax redistribution. Closing tax loopholes. Those w

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