Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle E

BLOOMBERG Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle East May 20, 2017

9 billion. That is a billion more than the government initially said its plans to raise. The best way to answer that is to look at where the market is. If you look at the top 10, i think the most developed will be malaysia and then in the top 10 you will have the gcc and you love pakistan and i think the gcc started to pick up the market in general. And the decision of whether you go for the sikora bond. But i think it is developing the Capital Market. Sovereign are starting to divers their funding sources, tapping into the market and again, that will trickle down. This is when eligible the led function. L eag function. There will be a visual breakdown for every a in terms of the amount. It takes a couple of seconds to load. You see here, it goes back to 2006. We are on a healthy start. 2017 toou expect by shape up in terms of the volume . For us, we look at 18 months and above. It will give us a perspective. We expect at least two see the same level of growth in 2017. With the numbers that we have, it is the first half of 2016 if you compare it to just april of 2017, it is 6 of it. 60 of it. We are expecting a growth that is not less than what you saw in 2016. That will trickle down to Financial Institutions and maybe some corporate. I was a total geek and i read through the perspectives on this. They said the bonds would divide for Risk Protection rules. Is that going to be the norm for islamic finance Going Forward . We have looked at that, this is hybrid structure. In the sovereign universe, that is not common. The view that we took is the way we approach this, we call it length based. In this case, it is saudi arabia. You refer to this as used for some stigmatization. The structure could fall under that. However, we to see more of that. We need to see if only one of those is available. This does not have a direct factor included. This is our view on it. The finance minister medicare that they are looking to tap that market in the second quarter. What is standing in that way from being bolder in their ambitions . Is it oil at 50 a barrel . What else could really hamper that kind of appetite . I think that it is usually the issue of coal. However, there are a lot of indications that they will come back to the market, i would view that this will most likely be in a bond format. This continues to be the core of that. Our protection of oil is for 2016. It is 52. 5. 420 18, 50 4. 5. It continues to be in that range. Is different station we saw here to stay. It is not one off. We look at that from the medium. It is something they are trying to develop for the whole market. Seeing the yield curve helps creating that. At least that is out of the way. There are other steps than is to be taken to develop these Capital Markets in these countries. Speaking of developing the Capital Markets, we have been talking about the sovereign issues because they tend to be the biggest issuers. Naturally. Could we get a situation where we have more corporates issuing islamic compliance bonds . Especially if we assume companies will reduce their reliance on bank lending. Usually, it is just starting compared to other countries and Capital Markets. That is out of the way. The sovereigns are actually pushing corpus to divers of by their funding. That is to ease some of the credit pressure that they went through. Theyre developing that regulation. We are seeing out of saudi arabia, people talking about tpps, ipos. I think that it is not something that will happen overnight, it is something that we expect to develop. You need to develop the right regulations and have the right level of transparency and infrastructure. I think we will start with the high, tip top tier of corporate. Whether it is government related entities or family companies. And it will take a longer time to tap such markets. That is the biggest and most interesting for many. There are some interesting stories to be told when it comes to the united arab emirates. What stands out to you in terms of broader trends . The liquidity situation has been very different. I think have seen the uae. We have seen banks and corporates tapping into the markets. That is something to have been doing for some time. It is not a new thing for them. If you go to kuwait, i think it is a similar story. But i think one of the barriers was the ability to develop and that should progress them across the board. Egypts inflation has had a 30 year high, sitting at 1. 5 . 31. 5 . They are putting more pressure on the government as the tackle more politically sensitive economic reform. We are joined by john paul. Lets kick off with the inflation part of the story. Ultimately, s p coming out on friday. We build a chart to show what is happening with inflation. Our viewers are inclined to pull it up on the bloomberg. The bottom panel, that is yearoveryear inflation. The central bank is not an a difficult spot, the inflation has been moderated. It up on the bloomberg. I dont think they are in a difficult spot in terms of Monetary Policy. Ultimately, egypts inflation theres is being driven by evaluations we saw in november. There is no escaping that it its going to fade away once the away once the impact comes to in november 2017. Ultimately though, egypt foodtion is driven by rices. There is nothing that centralbank policy can do to impact local food prices. Credit to the economy in egypt is quite low. The Monetary Policy transmission mechanism in a frontier market is not that will develop. If you assume Monetary Policy is to blunt to fight inflation, what other options are available to the government right now is about stabilizing the currency. I think that is what we have seen over the past few months. The imf released a statement when they approved the next eight of 1. 2 billion. It is quite optimistic, it was quite encouraging to the point that you dont know their are padded the government or themselves on the back for this reform program. There a lot of positive indications in this market right now. We have seen an influx in the portfolio investment. We have seen an uptick in exports, manufacturing is picking up as well. The big concern is the exchange rate. They say they have moved to a freely flowing currency. I look at the chart, i dont see that. What had he been looking at . The spread has been widening. Where do you see it leveling off. The forecast is 1825, it is not a huge discrepancy from where we are right now. The broader picture is we havent moved to a freely Floating Exchange rate. I am looking at charts and it is quite tightly managed. You speak to corpus on the ground and one of the biggest concerns is access to dollars. In my mind, have they achieved a market clearing rate . This problem wouldnt exist. People would access dollars at the Weaker Exchange rate. Could we maybe get another International Bond sale to plug that gap . That is a great question, i absolutely think so, i think the finance ministry will tap markets before the start of the next year in july. Youre looking at late may, early june for that. I think the vote of confidence we saw with the ims is going to help them access markets. A lot of the data flow that we have seen out of egypt has definitely been encouraging. They are moving in the right direction, i would just say its taking longer than people expected. Donald trump prepares for his first foreign visit since taking on the white house. Saudi arabia is the first. I have that, he spoke to other World Leaders. The details next, this is bloomberg. Welcome back to the best of Bloomberg Markets middle east. President donald trump met with president erdogan at the white house today. The two leaders met it to keep it friendly despite tensions over the u. S. Decision to arm syria. Bloombergs executive editor for the middle east joins us for more on the story. The main thing that president erdogan talked to President Trump about was the arming of the syrian kurds that was announced recently by the americans, which is not in line with what the turks want at all. The relationship between the syrian kurds and the pkk group in turkey itself is strong. Its defined by a terrorist group by the u. S. And turkey itself. That is a major bone of contention between the two. At the same time, President Trump was one of the World Leaders that congratulated on his successan and referendum, which give him more power. This was key, wasnt it . There were a lot of critics and skeptics out there from the western world that said your boat wasnt legitimate. It was a question of fairness. And President Trump kind of stood out and that he congratulates the president on this referendum, which will give powers, more executive powers than was traditionally the case with the presidency. But there were other things. You have president erdogan demanding from the americans that they extradite the mastermind from the coup. Of thee the issue turkish business who are accused of breaking sanctions against iran. Rudy giuliani is on the defense team and he is a close ally of President Trump. I want you to weigh in here. He is going to come to saudi arabia, he spoke to the turkish president , what is the shipping up to become . Is the saudi arabia and visit going to be the climax . The visit to saudi arabia is the first part of the visit. First foreign visit. There do seem to be big deals coming as a part of this. There are ceos that were going to be with President Trump. We are expecting some deals with them being signed. They are to have the news that there is 14 billion from saudis being invested in u. S. Infrastructure. There is a lot of money and mutual investment at stake here. Up next on the best of Bloomberg Markets, Pakistan Stock Exchanges have been upgraded to emerging standards. But some big investors are still skeptical. We spoke to the managing director of the karachi stock exchange. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to the best of welcome back to the best of Bloomberg Markets middle east. A Pakistan Stock Exchange has been elevated to the emerging market index. Thats effective next month. This is as overseas money is draining away, despite being one of the better performers over the last year, Foreign Investors have pulled close to 200 million out so far in 2017. We spoke to the managing director. Take a listen. Have a huge respect for mark. I do take his comments very seriously. But i think we are reaching a Tipping Point both in terms of governance as well as market infrastructure, institutions, in 2015, we did a selfassessment. Infrastructure, institutions, we were 65 compliant. I believe we reached about 75 this year. And sbc regulator was 95 compliant by next june. As far as government is concerned, i will only say that the current disclosure we had, the reckless environment and code of corporate governance, that is an international standard. Yes, it is a narrow market but it is steadily moving up. I just want to ask you as well, then. With this announcement, and the weighting that the country has given in the emerging market index. Some investors cant ignore that despite it being included. Do think that would be why . A wise thing to do is mark a wise thing to do . I think it may not be the wisest thing to do. It is rather small but if you look at the performance of the market, 46 up in 2016, 30 4 up 34 up since the announcement last june. Bloomberg has said its one of the bestperforming markets in the last five years. So someone has a missile on something. Let me pick up on this. You say one of the bestperforming markets. Just to see the scale and the extent of that, take a look at that. Wow. That is back to 2008, you can see the frontier markets. That is a Reference Point that was down almost 36 or 37 . Versus 328 gains. How much realistically more legroom does the pakistan equity . Ally really have at this point let me put it this way, in the last in the last index, pakistans ratio was around 14 times. 16 times in 2008. Right now it would be 11 times. That was about 35 discount. This is being driven by couple of things. One is the underlying profitability of companies that are very robust. If you take out the banks, which had a poor performance, theyre taking Large Capital gains. The rest of the industry is doing very well. At the same time, you have domestic players that are coming into the markets, especially after last years in position a lot of money has flown into the Capital Markets. I expect that to continue this year also. You mentioned the 200 million that flowed out, it has been amply substituted by mutual funds coming in in a very strong way. The influxes have been high. Both individual and corporate funds. I think domestic are supporting the market. Foreigners can benefit from that. 40 of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, what new product are you looking at . At the moment, our chinese investors are kind of in an observation assessment mode. Ofare in the process engaging the company to do a thorough review of the organization structure. Also product launches. They had taken out a detailed timeline. It is giving its findings to the sbc by now. Well probably have single Stock Options in play as a start, followed by btx. Coming up next on the best of Bloomberg Markets, middle east. It is against governments and companies around the world. We asked two of the middle easts to top cybersecurity firms about the impacts. Yousef welcome back to the best the Bloomberg Markets middle east. The main game is in full swing. Microsoft pointed the finger at the other thing while some Security Experts say the company themselves could also be accountable. They said technologies claimed that it helped prevent the second round of Malware Attacks. You have to look at it as a global issue. Malware is randomly across the globe, so there is no number of which part of the globe is more impacted than others. Everything is in impacted so far. Yousef who is to blame for this . Reports indicate that they are looking into the technical clues. They are suggesting a link to the korean lazzaras group that could be behind the attack. You see evidence to that . Short. Attribution is a complex thing, so you have to be careful with it. Analyzing similarities between this is one of the aspects of attribution, something to keep in mind. But some similarities with revis malware that has affected Financial Institutions from Lazarus Group has been found. Youve seen the original code and im going to ask his question from the perspective of someone who is not familiar with the ins and outs of coding. Be to tweakld it the original code now that we know what it is . Or to tweak it and employ it again . Sure. Thats not necessarily easy, but it is doable. I was expanding attribution as a viable into the equation. Analyzing the technical similarities is only one of them. So its important to look at the big picture when pointing fingers for attribution. Like i was saying before, there is similar is between the two programs. Day, thesend of the hackers can do all they want. But on the defensive side, whose responsibility is it to make sure we are well prepared for the next one . Does it come down to legislation or the tech guys that are writing all this code to make sure our computers are well defended . When you look at cybersecurity issues, which is often overlooked, every party is sharing responsibility. Microsoft, not only customers, each individual party has to share response ability. For instance, Companies Need to make sure that the system is not dependent on other systems. Microsoft is doing its best to include secret mitigation. Let me remind you that my does like not that vulnerable windows xp, which is 15 years old. The Mysterious Group threat on microsoft users, smart phone users, alsos apple users are open to threats. Speaking of the issue of threats, in terms of what we expect Going Forward, the broader horizon in terms of threat. What will you be telling clients that they should be watching out for . Pretty much everything. Everything is connected to the internet, even if you are in your home, you can connect your fridge with internet. We are in a different era now where everything is connected to internet and everything is interconnected. People have to understand that anything that is connected is potentially vulnerable. There is no difference there. What can businesses do to protect themselves . Have they been caught completely off guard in developing the right infrastructure to withstand this type of attack . A lot of them do a lot of work in that field, but a lot of them dont like to talk about it on the record. Are absolutely right. Its capital. If you look globally, you will see the different type of answers from each part of the world. They immediately issued a statement analyzing the problem and saying they would investigate, instead of denying the problem and postponing the investigation. Thats not always the smartest thing to do when it comes to cybersecurity attacks. Thats a global problem. People have to be paired for the worst and invest more into defensive and preventive solution, rather than be proactive after the mayhem. Speaking about cooperation, i understand you just not a call a few hours ago with microsoft. Correct me if im wrong, have you both agreed to share the data that you have collected . You have seen the original code. Have you agreed to share the data and make everybody more wellprepared . Sure. Like you said, we have been pretty active as a starter. We dont sleep much. Today, we shared data with microsoft and over the weekend we registered a key switch

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