Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose 20160630 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose June 30, 2016

Being shot down, riding on the ground before blowing himself up. Andattack was coordinated bloody, three separate locations hit by three suicide bombers who apparently arrived by taxi. It is the latest in the deadly bombings in turkey. Of atlanta,r georgia was waiting for a connecting flight. It really woke me up from my net nap. And then gunfire and then people started running. And we just ran this way. Connecticutrd of said that he and his wife spent three hours trapped in the airport. There was no place to go, nowhere to hide. And hearing gunfire and not being of a get out, it is a frightening feeling good feeling. There is an extra layer of security at the airport before you get into the building, but it did not stop to the attackers from getting in the terminal and blowing themselves up. One of them just over there. It was in the arrivals area, another in the entrance nearby and a third went upstairs into departures. These images showed one of the attacker inside the airport and quilted jacket a in the middle of summer, which would have aroused suspicion. Charlie if followed the announcement on monday that turkey and israel had resumed diplomatic relations. This after turkey and russia president obama had remarks in ottawa earlier today. President obama we know that this is part of our broader, shared by against terrorist networks and we will continue to work closely with turkey to root them out. In the meantime, we will do what is necessary to protect our people. I am confident that we can and we will defeat those the offer only to and distraction death and destruction, and we will remember that we are stronger when we come together and work toward a better world together. Charlie ian bremmer is the Founding Member of the group. Be even cook it will and is given cook on the counsel for foreign relations. We begin with ian bremmer at the table. Tell us about turkey. A place we both know well. A tough year for them. I was with the deputy Prime Minister yesterday in china. And he was feeling pretty good, literally hours before the attacks and finally they had made progress, they got to apologize to the russians. They felt like that would move on getting the economic relationship back on track, normalization with israel, he felt like a deal with cyprus was coming soon. It was the best day they had had in years. If you are right now, of all of the economies, you are probably in the most geopolitically challenging position. Charlie because . Ian because you have the syrian war, which is not ending. You have a kurdish crisis inside your country, as well as increasingly moving toward independence in and syria and iraq have the potential to tear your country apart. And you have challenges militarily, with the greeks, the russian relationship continues to be challenging, hopefully that will improve. And everywhere you look around, refugees2. 5 million sitting in turkey and that you are paying for. One reason may have a bigger issue with terrorism, lots of Freedom Fighters coming from syria and iraq, this is a which s witchs brew and if you are you are not going to have an easy time. Ian they launched strikes against isis, 10 of them in syria. I have spoken to a number of senior washington officials about them, do you think right now, who is working more closely with the americans in the fight on syria the turks or the russians . To a person, they say russia. Ian i had a conversation charlie i had a conversation with joe biden on syria. Biden Vladimir Putin is trying to get out of syria. It is costing him billions of dollars. The rest of the world sees that they are not capable. He has a great problem in ukraine and europe, his economy almost a freefall, so this is a guy that is not winning anything. Charlie but he is a player in the world. Joe biden he is a player in the sense that he is engaged in practically him as a practical matter, supporting a dictator who is killing tens of thousands of his people. So, if you call that a player, influential in the world no. Charlie a willingness on the part of russia to talk about a new constitution in syria, where a sawed assad is still there. Ian that is something they are willing to engage on with the americans and i think that america has had useful conversations. They talked about syria a couple of months ago, and they are still militarily engaging. Including an aleppo against the u. S. And you saw who could become the secretary of defense under Hillary Clinton, saying that she would be willing to military engagement of the u. S. Directly in syria to try to stop assad from some of these attacks. Charlie lets assume she sticks to her defenses and hillary defenses and Hillary Clinton is president , what would they do . They would do what to stop it . Ian they said they would have American Forces that would be providing direct support to rebels in trying to resist some of these aasssad attacks. Charlie and what are they doing now . Ian in other words there is potential for the americans to be engaged directly and proxy war with the russians under that scenario. She was careful to talk about the desire to continue to engage with the russians through this process, but clearly a sense from clinton and her folks, her surrogates, that the willingness of the americans in syria should be greater than what we see presently. Then you have the issue of the kurds themselves, moving toward independence. At some point it is clear that the Kurdish Regional government in iraq, the kurds in syria, are moving toward not just a tonic ,e but their own autonomy but their own states. It clearly believes over into kurdish aspirations in turkey, as well. Charlie i raised that question with the vice president. It is what he said. Joe biden that is the only way, to have a capital called baghdad, with control over the borders and foreign policy. But each of the regions, which is the sunni region, the kurdishsunni region, and the shia region, in fact that, each of them should have the same kind of autonomy that california has. So do have a national army, like our National Guard commitment cents National Guard, makes sense. Charlie is that a future look at iraq . Ian no question. It is hard for me to imagine that the central Iraqi Government will be able to assert authority over sovereign borders the way they exist right now. I will bring a broader point on this. My firm, the eurasia group, we probably have spent 90 of our time talking about states as credible actors in determining things down the ground. I think today that presented is more like 80 , in the next five years, 50 . Charlie so nonstate actors . Ian some of them are businesses, some of them are religious leaders, people like this on a, people are like are terrorists organizations. When you have states that have nominal governments, but cannot provide the legitimacy that is required to effectively govern citizens, then it is not a complete vacuum, there are other actors that matter. It is happening all over the world, but much more quickly and much more germanic implications across the middle east. Charlie what about china . Ian it is a great deal of friendship on one hand, on the other and, they do not talk about brexit at all. It is interesting to see how the chinese think about themselves as an economic and commercial power. Charlie everybody in the world has something to say about this. Ian and Vladimir Putin and the leader of china do not. Charlie he has spoken about it, but not in china. Ian yes and Vladimir Putin has been well disposed with the brits going their own way. And having more influence over individual countries. Charlie and he hopes for a week nato. O weaker ian yes. And in terms of weakening sanctions. Charlie harder than the germans . Ian roughly about the same, for different reasons. In the case of the russians, the brits, you have a lot of immigration. And the assassination, things like that. In the case of germany, there is rule of law. It was a big part of it. Ukraine was a bigger part of it. Charlie speaking of the brexit though, there are always suggestions they may not be alone in wanting to exit the european union. There is talk in france, obviously the netherlands, and in other places where there is unhappiness about globalization and there are populist politicians wanting to take advantage of the mood. Ian the first point is the orientation in the media about this has been about these nasty populists that want to get rid of europe. But we also need to recognize that europe has not been governing effectively, ever since the financial crisis. When we talk about europe, we talk about kicking the can, going from crisis to crisis and we come out with outcomes that do not fix anything. If the brits were going to stay in, it would be staying in a union that was becoming more and perfect by the day impre erfect by the day. A longerterm resolution on greece where there would have been sustainable debt situation for them and they couldve gotten out of it. None of the big crises that have been hit have actually been resolved, they have been pushed aside or not even half measure. And while that was going on, you have a more significant problem, in each of the countries the social contract is falling away. And large numbers, increasingly large numbers of the populations are saying, we do not trust any of these establishment leaders, we do not trust europe. Or brussels. Charlie they do not trust globalization. Ian they do not trust the identity that europe was meant to espouse and we do not trust so we want something other. Charlie is it a failure . Ian i think a couple of the things that europe was meant to a conflict as failed. The creation of a set of common values that would hold true across europe in terms of governance, things like rule of law, liberal democracy, a sense of supranational identity where people would believe themselves to be european and it would be meaningful. I think that has failed. We cannot look at a country like poland or hungary, his governments whose governments openly admire big aspects of russian political governance or Chinese State capitalism, and say, within the european union, and say that you are functioning. Originally, europe was not to be economically together, it was meant to be political so you never went to war again. Charlie do you think that state capitalism in china is a growing role model . Ian i would not call it a role model. When i was in china one of the biggest things i did was have a panel with the runner of the and thetration the bank, and trillion dollars they are planning to spend across the region and more broadly on infrastructure. They are highly aware that they are building institutions, spending money come outside the borders. Europeans are not. The data brexit was announced, i floor of my5th hotel and watching massive towers built, floor by floor, 247. Charlie they have a huge overcapacity at home . Ian they do and that is why they are spending on infrastructure rather than creating new markets. The chinese, the ones who that has not dropped shoe that has not dropped since 2008 has been china. We had the u. S. Financial crisis, we are in the throes of this charlie the issue that has shoe has not dropped . Ian everyone has been talking about their instability and so far, we have not had these problems in china. Charlie but there was a downsizing. That perhaps lasted ian they say x. 7, the reality is laura. But when you are in china, patriotism is high, there is consolidated power and it is not about like the problems we are experiencing in the u. S. And europe, yet i came away from the trip for the first time in many years with a little bit of trepidation. Charlie trepidation about . Ian the ceos i was talking to, they were carrying the party line, the government line more consistently than they were before. It implies insecurity. Charlie and what has changed . Ian the growth rate is going down and they are concerned about the Global Market environment. Yourling apart is falling apart is good for the russian perspective, not china. If you are wretched, your role in the world is and in china it is economic, so you want a more robust marketplace. China wants a strong europe. They do not want to europe to challenge them, but the europeans are not challenging the. They are able to have deals with china germany and charlie they can level the Playing Field . Ian i would say in some areas where they know that they need the help, so the stimulus that you see in china today is overwhelmingly toward the consumer. If you are talking about health care, talking about building out the ability to provide better pensions to people, anything that will support growing middle class consumption, hotels, those American Companies going to china are doing incredibly well and they have great opportunities. Where i see places that the strategicel they are centers, particularly the information technology, broadly defined, big data, the cloud, surveillance and also the ability to determine who sees what and who buys what, that is an area that is becoming harder for the europeans, american, and japanese to function as equals in china. It is becoming more difficult. Charlie can you imagine circumstances in which there is a right wing populist uprising takeover, as in france . Can you imagine . Ian not in the last next election. Right now is in front. In the second round environment where the other votes turn to whoever the remaining centralist candidate is, i think it is clear that lapinne. Loses. I am worried about a referendum not in france, but in the netherlands. Any of these places that has 1, 1 more headline for people to focus on because you do not want a knock on effect. In the netherlands, you have a Freedom Party out in front and to have elections coming up in a year. And while he is unlikely to win, he will likely be the king maker, so whoever wants to govern will need him in the coalition. And his negotiating stance will be, i want a referendum. There is a good chance that the netherlands get a referendum. Ifwe see mr. Rensy in italy, he fails in his extraordinarily important referendum on constitutional political reform. Charlie and what happened in rome. Ian yes, it took over. Big local governments in italy not very important, but they are. He handled it with optimism, like he always does. He is a foreign time. Florintine. But are they going to be able to, if they do not get the win in october and the polls right now are about 5050, then he will be out and the fivestar movement by 2018 could be governing and they want a referendum and to be out on the euro. Now the european union, the euro. In austria, there could be a referendum. There are growing movement in every one of these countries and while i do not think that you will see wins for these rightwing movements in the main european governments, at least not most of them, i think it will affect the politics. The main thing this means is negotiations with the brits will be sharp. They have to be. Charlie so, what do you think the admonishment of ongoing Merkel Angela merkel will be. Ian she is the grown up in the room. She has the least to worry about the mystically, even though her popularity is down. Charlie because of migration. Ian absolutely. Is taking ag tougher stance on the brits. And of in double digits consistently now, so she doesnt have to worry about the populist plank. But it is less about that. If we could have a negotiation between a unified and sensible British Government and Angela Merkel we could end up with a norway style agreement where the brits have access to a common market, where they get rid of the promise to open borders to immigrants and the markets are sensible and we ticketed breath and say we dodged a bullet. But if we look at the way that they can build negotiations from the past years, any crisis they had, the idea that this europe, with this u. K. , is going to have a nonacrimonious negotiation that will end in something sensible, is not a bit you want to make bet you want to make. Charlie will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister . Ian it is not a slamdunk. Johnson has not looked good since winning brexit. He has been defensive, he said i do not think immigration is what people were actually voting for. It is like he was chasing the car and then he got it and now what do you do . I think there is a decent chance that we get somebody else, the secretary, whom most of the brits in the tory party are talking about. They call her, great britains merkel. Would you would think would not be attractive, but it is meant as a compliment and would certainly allow something that could bring the conservative party more closer together. Charlie there is also this question when you go to china, do they ask you about donald trump . Ian everybody does. Charlie what did they ask . Ian the chinese interestingly, everywhere you go, well not in russia because in russia, Vladimir Putin likes donald trump, and the russians would welcome it, but everyone else you talk to thanks that donald trump would be a disaster thinks that donald trump would be a disaster. Charlie the chinese do . Ian a year ago, when i was talking to the leadership, they would say consistently they do not want hillary. She was considered a hawk and charlie they do not like her because she is considered a hot a hawk . Ian she was the architect for more American Military in the region. Charlie moore the president than her. Ian you look at campbell and you look at hillary and they think a lot of it was them. And certainly, she was talking about state capitalism and the model. Barack obama never brought that up as president , not once. And you talk to the chinese now, they say, we want hillary. And it is a good thing. Interestingat is is, the chinese, as the world is becoming more unstable, they are becoming more of a status quo power. They sure want the South China Sea in their direction and they will push against the new government in hong kong, but globally they want a strong europe, they want a strong u. S. , they do not want anybody rocking the boat. I want to go to turkey, Richard Engels is there. Richard, tell me what we know at this moment about who did what and where they are in the investigation. Richard i think at this point we know mostly how they did what they did. Not necessarily who. The position among government officials is that thi

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