Hello welcome to countdown. A warm welcome to the first hour of the program. Lets get to one of our top stories this morning. The european auto show kicks off in paris today. Lets get straight to european correspondent hans nichols from paris. Of the a glimpse of some vw brandnew models. Will you be getting a lamborghini or bugatti . Getting pricey. Be packs of rabid dogs. For we have is a fight share. We have a fight for who is going to sell what car to what individual. They came out with an exciting concept car. It was blue. It could be silent. You could go electronic. Previous. S the s. Priu we caught up with the ceo of volkswagen. To take over toyota and be the worlds leader. We are already world market leaders when it comes to passenger cars. We still have some need for action. We are working intensively to develop ourselves further in these areas. They did roll out something that i would call a pickup. An old vw van with the back lopped off. We will use it as an opportunity to figure out what manus cranny does on his weekend. Hat is our driving passion the market for a van. We will get more details on that story later. What about new models. When are we going to see that . A lot of buzz at the auto the industry has asked when we are going to get this. Have aar him listen. It wont take long now. We are making good progress. We will only keep details of the new car when it is here. We will let you know. I tried to press him if that meant next year. He did correct my german. For take wrong verb over toyota. We got a little news out of the ceo of the volkswagen group. It sounds embarrassing for you. You had to get back to those classes. Thank you very much. Hans nicholss from the Paris Motor Show. Ford ceo mark field will be up in a few minutes. Later, we will be speaking to the Jaguar Land Rover ceo. Day today. E the ecb, investors of watching for Mario Draghis statement. Good morning. The devil is in the details today. What details do you think we will get . How much . What assets they will buy us mark . Investors will demand the of the on the quantity assets come of the types, whether they are looking at rings like asset things like asset backed securities. This is about getting animal spirit back in europe. It is the tangible measures that get economies going to read you have an economic block of halfabillionaire people. Is unacceptably low. We are any cusp of deflation. This is a big moment. Do we treat this many qe qe . Qe as or do we wait for something more like u. S. Were u. K. Qe . If this is about trying to get animal spirit, make money cheaper, it has gotten cheaper and hasnt done the job. Maybe it is not about qe but credit easing. Government bond deals are very low. We have to get the cost of borrowing down for the real economy. Small to medium enterprises. Particularly in the peripheral countries. That is the key to drive down those borrowing costs. And you get those animal spirits going again. A great deal of the debate is about the class of bonds the ecb would accept. The collateral. The story that they have to buy greek junk bonds. . O they have to go that far a loosening on the collateral types . Is quality of collateral it an issue . It is. When you look at an assetbacked security, the yields are low already. When you go to the junior levels, yields are higher. That is the sticking point. That can unlock the cost of capital. You are right. The market to look at for the level of detail. How low can the yields go . Frances 1. 2 . Spain, 2. 06 . How much downside is left in some of these markets, even if the ecb does announce fullblown qe . Spanish spreads are 125 basis points. That goes to 75 over the next six months or so. What was a very vicious circle has become virtuous. Particularly in places like spain. You have growth stronger. And upgrading cycle. Why would not the spread be higher . Yields are lower. Unemployment heading in the right direction in spain . In naples they will face protests in a city with high unemployment, even for the eurozone. When are we going to get that part of the jigsaw . See improvements on the ground . That is the key issue. The reform of public finance. Clearly, government has to do there bit. Also, that centralbank can do their bit. Multiit will take time. Lets cross over to the u. S. Bond markets, an interesting day. Treasuries had a big turnaround yesterday. Quite a big move. Getting ready for the jobs report. What is your take on the u. S. Treasury market . It good value or just wait and see . Le blow. Look a litt low. What is driving them low is the lack of inflation. Every bond investor is hunting down inflation. In each of the major markets, lower andaggets lower. That is a challenge for all Central Banks including the u. S. How do they get Inflation Higher . But with been created an absence of inflation. The shortterm part of the treasury market is dislocated from expectations about Interest Rates. Do you think it is . Are investors behind the curve when it comes to the reality . It is. Fed you look at the dax or predictions, it is more aggressive than bond markets. Both groups will be data dependent. When you look at the u. S. Economy, it will grow at 1. 7 . That is a startlingly low figure. We are back to this idea of inflation. Bond investors we should not look at them closely . You dont fight centralbank spirit that is the bottom line for all markets. If you think of an economic checklist of what could force yields higher, inflation is a critical part of that. It is asymmetric. If you do not have it, you have deflation. That is a bigger problem. To 2003, a lot of people have said the same kind of thing can read pace, trajectory, rising rates. You feel so secure that we will not see a rerun of that . Is one big difference. When you look at the amount of debt in the economies, it is colossal. Island indicator, we should all watch. It is wage inflation. When we see that coming back in, that is when you change your mind. The u. S. Economy three quarters consumers. That consumer is not getting a pay raise right now. When they do, they are off. Who do you blame . Why arent we seeing any wage pressure right now . Is the conundrum every central bank is facing the read we have had little bits of economic growth. Unemployment coming down. There should be some wage growth. That is the milliondollar question be read books which we had more time to rethink of for joining us. From jpmorgan asset management. You can join the conversation as always on twitter. markbartontv it depends how awake we are. These two are always ahead of me. I dont fix so. Up next, back to the biggest names in the car business. After the break. Time for todays company news. A more money pulled from the Pimco Total Return Fund than ever before. Billions drew 23. 5 from the fund. The largest withdrawal occurred on the day of his departure. At the redemptions represent more than 10 of the assets under management. Fund held to 21 points expiring dollars in client money. 221. 6 billion in client money. Phillips admitted during the two week long trail that it used their designs. But they argued the patents were invalid because they were not properly written any technology was obvious. Pepsi is hoping to win over healthconscious consumers by introducing a new cola called pepsi true. It uses a natural sweetener. True will besi exclusively sold on amazon. Com. Retail sales may begin next year. The Paris Motor Show is revving up. Our International Correspondent hans nicholss is on the ground. Now . Ave you got with you of ford. The ceo thank you for joining us. We are here. Beautiful . It is like a paris gray. We can talk cars in a little bit. Tell us about this car and why you are excited. We are introducing not only this car but another other products. Is about our plan for europe. Making sure we have great,. Ompelling cars for consumers burks there are a number of different competitors. This is a car for active families. It is stylish and it looks good. Packed with technology to help customers. Innovative seating flexibility. New led lights. Tons of safety features. A very compelling product. You mentioned europe. Growth is coming back a little bit, but we are not at precrisis levels. When you think you will have a profit in your European Division . Throughve guidance 2015. We do expect to improve next year, significantly. But still at a loss. That is the deterioration we have seen in russia. Has been recovering, but a bit of weakness the last couple of months. We have had to adjust our expectations. With the low Interest Rates in the pension plan. Expectation is to get back to profit as soon as possible. 2016 . We havent given guidance beyond 2016. Through your situation in russia. Where are you with that . We have a great partner. When you look at the russian market, even at its depressive level, it is still as big as the u. K. Is, somewhere down the road, it will be the largest market in europe during we have been investing. We had a started with only producing two products and by the end of the year, we will produce 11. We want to serve the russian customer. What is your timeline . A year, two years . We take the long view. We continue to expect 2015 to be a tough year in terms of growth. Hopefully starting in 2016, we will see growth come back to the market read again, we take the long view. We are investing through the cycle. Longview in europe as well. Capacity has shrum. Does more need to be done to cut back capacity . From our point of view, our plan has been about introducing great products. Does that mean we are in a fight for market share . The same amount of customers fighting for market share . You will see growth. Lowest it hasthe been in six years. What we see will we see precrisis levels . Growth butt to some probably not getting back to precrisis levels. It all comes back to making sure you have compelling products to grow your slice of the pie. Lets talk about the mustang. Arriving on your shores. How are sales doing . Have you ever tried to park a mustang any european city . X i lived in europe. I have a lot of experience parking. We are excited about the mustang. We are shipping fastback models. Just two weeks ago. The plant is working. We will introduce it here in europe in 2015. From the response we have gotten at the auto shows, a tremendous amount of excitement. Clicks give me a number. How many vehicles to its back to sell . As many as customers want. Majority of the sales will be in north america and the u. S. A lot of interest and a demand in europe. 50 of the mustang clubs, we have 300 total to retrieve total. 50 are outside the u. S. Where we have never sold product before. We have high hopes. We will be selling as many as customers want. Lets talk about the focus. Your new focus line. Tell me about it. It is the bestselling car in the world. When your wife does not let you buy the mustang. You look at the focus and it gets your blood flowing. It is exciting to drive, it looks good. We are about delivering product excellence with passion in every segment for customers. Customers are telling us they agree. Is the bestselling car in the world. When someone is back in the states, when will they get a european sports engine . When you look at our strategy, the one ford strategy, ride and handling, it is very consistent around the world to read whether you are in the u. S. Or europe or china or south america, you will get that dna. The handling of a greatlooking focus. Talk about china. How do you see the outlook . We are very excited about china. Our growth there has been significant over the last couple of years. Literally have doubled our share. We are in the process of opening three more plants next year. Were up 50 purity your to date, up 30 . Market growing. The fundamentals are healthy. A lot of growth in what we call the tier city tier three cities. Relatively small compared to the larger ones. That is where we are focusing our efforts. One final question. The discussion. What do you do to stay competitive with new regulations . We always want to take this from a Customer Perspective to read customers want the best fuel efficiency, quality, safety. Our approach is to deliver that. In terms of regulations, we try to meet them. At the same time, make sure we have good discussions with the. Egulators on the affordability thank you very much. Your intent is the opposite of mine with speed limits. Which is to always break them. We did not get the demonstration of how to park the mustang. But you are an expert parker and i know you could do it. Absolutely. Parisield life from the auto show. Lets talk about markets. Yesterday. You told us that would happen. We looked at the russell 2000. In index of small and mediumsized companies. The reason we look at it was there is not much brett. The Companies Taking part in the rally is not as great as many would like. Remember the death cross . It seems as if the death cross was right. The trend very much as a downward one. The contagion spreckels over here in europe. In france. G news they will miss the deficit targets. French stocks have beaten european stocks. The option traders are beginning to buy downsize protection. That is what is coming through. Most of the option positions are looking for a 15 correction before the end of the year. That was not the only week data point. There is also the german manufacturing data. And the misery index. The ebola news was weighing on airlines. That is a wrapup of the markets. Tot can Vladimir Putin do revise the economy . We are in moscow to speak with the chief economist. 6 26 on countdown. You are welcome back to countdown, i am manus cranny. Lets start with the dollar. It is overboard, overdone. The right hand side of the screen, the biggest oneday drop since may of this year. As we wait for the ecb announcement. This time in august, we had volumes of around 85. 5 billion going through the system. Year, lower. The dollar is giving back some of its gains. The pound, the back story is the dollar is dropping. Pound, the new mpc member, beginning to show her potential colors. She made a statement. Saying the downward pressure on sterling from sterling on inflation may be fading. The pound against the dollar, one. 62. Not fade as quickly as a midsummer nights dream. I am anna edwards in london. Bankrgentine central president has quit. He resigned in less than 24 hours after Cristina Fernandez publicly criticized the institution for allegedly leaking inside information. Mario draghi spoke in naples last night. He says the key to sustained recovery in the eurozone is higher investment. They deliver their Rate Decision later today, and you can atch the News Conference 1 30. Raised foroll has ebola. Almost all of the cases are in guinea, liberia, and see her of the only. And sierra leone. Mainlands tour groups have been officially banned from traveling to hong kong. In moscow, the sixth annual Capital Investment forum is underway. Vladimir putin is due to speak at the event later this morning. The next guest is attending the forum. Economist at the institute of international finance. Think you for joining us this morning. Issues thatll the are coming into play and russia, the sanctions are beginning to bite. You would contend that they are having more of an impact perhaps than many have thought. Thank you for having me. What happens actually, the sanctions have been biting stronger than expected. Even though they are relatively narrow. Borrowers have been shutting out sent out completely. Discounts in addition to the usual russia is deprived of funding. There are a lot of Different Things happening. The ruble has fallen. Has, under anstem enormous rusher. A lot of things the russian government has to do. One of the biggest debates, in our business week article, is russia desperate enough to Block Investors from leaving. We have had a variety of sources talking about it and read the russians desperate enough to consider that . That would be a fatalistic mood. That would bring you back to 1998. That involve the default pat would involve the fault. We will have to see what president putin says. My feeling is from the talks i had here that capital control is not on the agenda. Right now, nobody in the russian ernment or centralbank russia is not in that situation. Russian counterparts they did not work even in the late 1990s. The damage from them was bigger than the possible benefits. Heital controls cannot imposed on the institution by itself. There needs to be a change in the law. The bottom line is not, at this considering capital controls. If the situation becomes desperate, that is another issue. Right now is not on the agenda. Dia think we will see new retaliation sanctions from russia . With a risk that . Would they risk that . Taken k they have there is a feeling that it was a mistake. Morert russia and russians than the partners in the u. S. Lets put it this way. If the situation if we have this conflict, i dont expect the sanctions what could somend is happening sort of harassment of businesses in the u. S. When they use sleek conditions to extract pressures. Dont expect a broad wave of counter sanctions. They understand in the government that the counter sanctions will probably hurt russia and russians more than europe or the u. S. Saudiare looking arabia cutting the price at which they will sell their crude. Prices are going lower. Where is the Inflection Point for russia in terms of pricing from the oil market . How much does that come to bear as we go into this . The Winter Quarter . This is the big story for russia. We have done some estimates. Referenced,e have 9490 five dollars. The losses 2 of gdp. This is something that russia can absorb at this point of time. Below,oes below 90 or and stays there for a long time, say for like a year or year and a half, then russia would be in big trouble. Go into ald have to deep recession. The ruble would have to depreciate further. In order to offset loss. Russia is vulnerable to oil prices. A combination of older abilities. Of the older abilities. Nerabilities. Great to have you. Lets see with the headlines are from mr. Putin. Comes anothers, ecommerce launch. Rocket internet in frankfurt. The biggest ipo in germany this year. Caroline hyde is here to tell us more. Good morning. How is this one going to go . It1. 4 billion euros is how is going to go. Thats what we understand the valuation will be. More importantly, this company it is the biggest initial share sell in germany it is what it does for Technology Companies i