Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20141217 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown December 17, 2014

I am anna edwards. Also, talking the deficit. George osborne tells charlie rose that the u. K. Is a front runner in the world economy. U. K. , weularly in the have a budget deficit, even though it has come down by half. Our debt to gdp is too high at 80 . We want to be in the front ranks of economic nations. Russias currency is in crisis, and its economy is unraveling. The ruble plunged to its lowest ever against the dollar despite the Central Banks efforts to stem the route with its biggest Interest Rate hike since 1998. There is the dollarruble over the last two days. It touched 80 yesterday, coming. Own to around 71. 75 today still, the russian Prime Minister held an emergency , deciding not to consider currency controls. The economy minister insists the moves are not reflective of the countrys fundamentals. Of course, everything weve been talking about is on the stabilization of the ruble. Ratelieved its exchange does not correspond with the fundamental macroeconomic development. We see how it breaks away from the oil price movements. Lets bring our russian expert into the conversation, ryan chilcote. Tell us about this meeting that took place between ministers. First, the economy ministers announcement that they are not going to introduce capital controls really supported the ruble. We were at 80. It came down to 72. I think there is still probably a certain amount of the ruble value that is pinned to the prospect that there could be he said that they were discussing it. Obviously, not everyone is convinced as he is that hes being honest. That was one thing. The other thing is, from his ive focused on, he took a potshot at the governor of the central bank by saying that rates should have been hiked earlier. Ofis something the governor the central bank herself said later in the day. The economy minister there is the head of the Central Bank Rate their the economy minister we just heard from is the deputy head of the central bank and was passed over for the job. This war of words we are getting now is getting louder, quite surprising to hear within suchs inner circle acrimonious discussions. Are questions about whether the Prime Minister can hold his job, and there is an important debate going on between the former finance minister of russia you see on the left. He was the finance minister for 10 years, thought to be a liberal, and mr. Sechin, the ceo of rose left. Why . The day before yesterday, mr. Kudrin wrote that a bond sell t ross left had engaged in bruce left was seeding up the market. The fact that it wasnt transparent was also not helpful. Echin responded calling him a provocateur, saying that there needs to be in investigation to get to the bottom of whose interests he is pursuing. He threw him into the same category of people in the. Olitical opposition it just so happens that kudrin is one of the people rumored to replace the Prime Minister of russia. Debate and argument publicly right now between two of the most important people in post crisis russia. Meanwhile, International Business is trying to work out what to do with this, if theyve got dealings in russia. There is just chaos all over russia. Pple halted its online sales it is not a huge thing in terms of apple sales. They sold about 1. 5 million iphones out of 150 worldwide millionr, 150 worldwide last year, but yesterday they decided it was too complicated to keep up with the currency rate. Big macs went up. Carlsberg taking a hit. It has lost 2 billion of its market cap on the back of what is going on in russia. Thank you very much. We will return to this story many times. Getting some breaking news from philips, news of a takeover of the Dutch Company lighting, health, consumer products. It is acquiring a u. S. Company volcano for 18 a share. The total transaction value is 1. 2 billion. That includes volcanoes cash and debt. Is a catheterbased Solutions Company for cardiovascular applications. Philips, of course, is making a push into health, sports activity, nutrition, carving out the lighting business, which laid the companys foundation over 100 years ago. He is combining the health care and consumer lifestyle divisions into a new entity. That is further pushing that drive. As russias currency crisis ripples through the markets, a leading official at the bank of england is highlighting increased volatility in markets. Andrew bailey who is the banks Deputy Governor for prudential regulation told bloomberg that geopolitical risks are having an impact. Upwe went through a period until this alltime where, to be frank, i think the low level of volatility in markets was a surprise. Someone kept saying, things are going on around us, and there is very little discernible reaction in the Financial Markets to those events. That changed, and it changed in the early autumn of this year. It changed quite markedly in october. We have had some big movements. There are geopolitical risks going on. They are a much bigger part of the landscape now in terms of their potential impact on growth in the world economy. We will have more coverage of the bank of england later this morning. The minutes of the banks last Monetary Policy Committee Meeting of this year will be released at 9 30 london time. We will have analysis of that on bloomberg. When the greek government called a snap president ial stock market slumped. If lawmakers reject the governments nominee after three rounds, there will be a general election, which the auntie antiausterity party is seen to win. Why is greece being sucked back into crisis mode . Elliott gotkine reports. Just when greece thought they were out of their debt crisis, their politicians have pulled them back in. It begins with the revelation that the budget deficit is twice as big as previously thought. On austerity plan was announced. Four months later, greece formally requested a bailout. The s p downgraded the countrys debt to junk. Greece agreed to make 30 billion and cuts. Riots break out in the streets. Greece struggles on. A second figure bailout is approved to get through the worlds biggest that restructuring. Greeces Parliament Approves a new bailout. Protests continue. Antonis samaras becomes the Prime Minister. The real relief comes when ecb president mario draghi vows to defend the euro. 52014, the economy starts growing again, and for the first time in four years, greece sells bonds. Bigantiausterity party won in european elections. The government brings forward president ial elections. Will it work . Elliott gotkine is live in athens. All of the action tonight is going to be happening just behind you in parliament. Walk us through what to expect. Thats right. Good morning on a not so glorious day. Theust under 12 hours time, 300 members of the Greek Parliament are set to gather in the parliamentary building across the street from me. The vote is due to start at 7 00 p. M. Local time. It is not greece, expected to start on time, sometime between 7 00 and 8 00. The committee will then call out the name of every single lawmaker. They will respond in one of two ways. If they saying nay, that is greek for yes. That means they will vote for Prime Minister summer us president ial candidate. You cant actively vote against the president. You just abstain. The key number to look for is 101. Once you get to 101 abstentions, it becomes mathematically impossible for Prime Minister samaris to get his president ial candidate through. Then we will move on to round two on december 23, and potentially run three on december 29, when he only needs the support of 180 lawmakers. Tonight, he needs to hundred. He already has 155 in his governing coalition. If he doesnt win on december 29, then Parliament Must be dissolved. New general elections called within 10 days. They must be held within 21 days of that. Course, thes concern is if there is a general election, the antiausterity party could win and perhaps try to renegotiate terms with creditors. Yes. Polls,ng to the opinion they are still the most Popular Party in greece, although its lead over the Prime Ministers new Democracy Party has closed a little bit, according to the latest poll. That said, investors are certainly fretting about a potential antiausterity party victory. Scenario, which perhaps prompted some to sell off their stocks or bonds in is thatast week, serious woodwind, and then on february 28 when the current sarasohngreement ends, would be unable to negotiate a followon agreement. Would spell trouble for its economy because it would no longer have a buffer for its thanks. Debt is rated as junk. It would also be able to run unable to access markets with borrowing costs above 9 . To july whenad us greece owes a big chunk of cash to the European Central bank. It could become in theory the first country ever to default on paying its debt to its own central bank. The party has shown itself to be a little bit pragmatic. It simply wants a friendly renegotiation. 1 thank you very much indeed. We will have more from elliott threat the morning. At 10 30, he will speak with llamas retz off. He will tell us how these uncertainties surrounding the greek election could impact tourism in greece. You can join in the conversation on twitter. Theare you expecting from what are you expecting from the Greek Parliament later today . You were listening. Taking notes, elliott. Crisis ainded me of a couple years ago. We have many shots in front of the parliament. Coming up, we will be talking greece and russia with Neil Williams of Hermes Investment management. Time for todays company news. Bernie ecclestone has won his battle to regain, retain control of formula one after paul walsh walked away from plans to become chairman of the board. That is according to reports. Walsh was said to be in a poor position in the position to replace peter brownback. He is known to be suffering from ill health and is expected to step down. Traders at citigroup will be spared the full impact of this years market slump. The yearend bonus pool for the banks trading business will be generally unchanged from last year, even though revenue has been sliding. That is according to a person briefed on the matter. It is not such good news for citigroups investment bankers. There are rewards will fall short of the divisional jump in revenue, although some could see increases of as much as 5 . Slumped inos stocks hong kong trading after reports of a crackdown on illicit money being channeled through the casinos. Entertainment fell by as much as 3. 5 , and wynn macau, 4. 3 after the story in the south China Morning post. Is also preparing for its first annual decline in casino revenue. Russian ruble hit a record low yesterday, and the followup to spreading through Global Markets. Lets bring in our next guest. Neil williams, thank you very much for joining us. Bloomberg has done a nice survey of economists who expect 70 billion to be spent by the russians on propping up their 6 of their fx reserves. Economistspose many have much intelligence on whether thats going to happen, but that is an assumption. Iphone 4s second youre going to say the economists have intelligence. I thought for a second you are going to say the economists have intelligence. Russia is back on the radar. Russia is important. It is a 2 trillion economy, which puts it on par with italy. It is not far behind the u. K. This takes us back to 1998 when they defaulted. I am concerned not just about the russian economy, which is big, but the spillover, especially as it depends back towards the eurozone and particularly germany, which increasingly is looking less bulletproof economically. Good tostage, it was see capital corp. Controls werent imposed. That doesnt smell just yet like 1998. Back then, oil hit a dollars a barrel. In real terms, oil is about four times higher than that. Same time, russia faced a huge spike in its bond redemptions that were due and couldnt afford them and therefore defaulted. Going back to your comment about the ruble, they also had a foreign currency pegged to defend. Theyve got more time this time to do something about it. Im also concerned about how that bends back into the eurozone at a time that is hardly troublefree. If you dont throw money at it, are currency controls the final option besides raising Interest Rates, which seemingly hasnt worked . Its currency control the final desperate solution . I think that is the ultimate game that will need to be played. It always risks increasing social unrest at home, especially at christmas, for those who want to buy consumer goods. Now, they are certainly more expensive. If the ruble fails to find a fall into next year when international sympathy is going to be low, capital controls seem to be the ultimate of the ultimate objective. All this talk of spillover into germany, which way does it play . Pitt plays to germany through more of the central and Eastern European economies, given that the biggest markets for german capital and intermediate goods is still the likes of poland, hungary, and countries to the east. By ann in this comfort zone re i still think a logical there is a symbiosis between germany and russia. Half of russias tax revenue comes solely from its exports of oil and gas to the eu, while as much as two thirds of germanys oil demand comes through russia. There is the case of knocking Heads Together and sorting this out, but clearly, its not going to happen in the shortterm. Neil williams come stay with us. We will continue our conversation about things on his mind, as we did with russia and greece. 6 21 here in london. Welcome back. Hermes Investment Management chief economist Neil Williams. I did enjoy reading your notes on the outlook for the next year. The word bazooka was in there, and i havent seen this word for a while. Is the bazooka going to be rolled out of the garage . Yes. Bazooka is very much in the shed and will be dusted off next year. The interesting thing is, what is the trigger for him to use it . Possibility linking it with e couldthat ive heard, q start to help greece stay in the system. That is not going to go down well with the core members of the eurozone. I wonder if its actually the opposite. Japan has been doing qe4 16 years. Thing it has really achieved is to keep bond yields lower for longer. Wifi or the final bullet now when bond deals are on the floor . Trigger could be if greece were to leave the system, and i dont think they will, bond yields would surely start to go up. If could have the irony that greece were to leave, maybe the ecb would do qe for the other countries. I think that has to be an incentive for whoever wins in greece to stay in the system. Lets look at the fed, because they are of course meeting this week, and a lot of attention will be given to the comments that come from janet yellen later on. Are we going to see any big change in language . Are we going to see any acknowledgment of the International Turmoil . International forces have strengthened, but i think we will have to look very hard to see any language changed today. Importantly, not so much the international scene, but the domestic scene in the u. S. Coupled with an oil slide, weve had dollar strength, and i think it will be interesting to see how the fed remarks upon the strength of the dollar. Economists like me are torn up have torn up half of their Inflation Forecasts for next year. I am knocks picking the u. S. To have zero inflation by summer of next year at current oil prices. In the u. K. , weve already got deflation at the goods price level. It is quite possible that next year we have no rate hikes at all in the u. S. Or u. K. Neil williams, chief economist at Hermes Investment management. For germany. Tion it centers on textbooks for inheriting a familys firm. We will be live in berlin after the break. You are watching countdown take a look at the Foreign Exchange markets. There is talking about. Yesterday, the ruble plummeted into a freefall. The dollar this week alone has risen by 31 against the ruble. 72 rubles. An intraday move pushed the ruble to 80 against the dollar. Through against the Financial System after this increase of failed to stem a run on the currency. The economy minister denied speculation that the government would turn to foreign restrictions, foreignexchange restrictions, to stop russia from converting money into dollars. It was quite an astonishing day. S Bloomberg News has spoken to suggest that the best way of stopping the rubles decline is to intervene in the currency markets. Have surveyed say up to 80 billion is available to do that next year. Other options are to raise rates again, which seemingly hasnt worked yet, or to implement capital controls, something that our last guest Neil Williams says is very much a possibility. It has been quite an astonishing 24 hours for the ruble. An internal intraday low of 80. I am anna edwards in london. The uks chancellor of the exchequer says he will target what he calls aggressive tax planning in his bid to reduce the uks budget deficit. George osborne told charlie rose that he would work toward eliminating the deficit. Britain is still carrying a 5 budget deficit. It was double digits. It was forte to be 11 forecast of the 11 . Weve got to eliminate that deficit principally by reducing government spending, dealing with costly welfare entitlements. Youve also got to make sure that wealthy people pay their taxes. We are unapologetic in dealing with aggressive tax planning. You can see the full interview with George Osborne on charlie rose at 10 00 this evening london time on bl

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