And, Credit Suisse beats analyst estimates. We will be speaking to the lenders chief executive in zurich. Hello. Welcome to countdown. A warm welcome to the program this morning. It is a big day for bank earnings. Credit suisse just reported earnings for its Fourth Quarter in 2014. It is proposing a dividend and investors can choose whether to receive it in shares or cash. The banks net income beat analyst estimates at 921 million swiss francs against an estimate of 869 million for the Fourth Quarter. Be sure to stay tuned. We will be hearing from brady dougan on those numbers. Thats coming up just about an hour from now. Another Bank Reporting earnings. Societe generale is reporting fourthquarter earnings for last year. It is frances number two. Profits missed estimates. Revenue in its core consumer markets falling while its capital buffer shrank as well. You income rising to 511 Million Euros from 191 Million Euros a year earlier. Net income has increased but it has missed the 505 to seven 557 Million Euros expected. Economic stagnation in france and a slowdown in russia where it has one of the largest Retail Branch networks have weighed on profit. Profit from french retail net worth fell 15 to 241 Million Euros in the Fourth Quarter. Thats the lowest in two years. The measure of financial strength falling to 10. 1 at the end of december, a drop of 26 basis points from three months earlier. Its russian business posted an 11 million euro loss in the Fourth Quarter, during which that countrys economy suffered from a collapse in oil prices and a plunge in the ruble. It is an increase year on year but still an earnings miss for the Fourth Quarter as frances number two bank. Says he get general mavs says it does not have any exposure to greece. The chief executive has been speaking to caroline connan. He says he is convinced an agreement over greek debt is probable. Globally speaking, on the macroeconomic side, we consider that a positive input. [indiscernible] the new oil price and the very low Interest Rates should create a better dynamic not only in france but in europe. This will be positive also for the banking situation. Yes, we expect slightly better dynamic in terms of revenue this year than last year. How big of an impact could the greek situation have on the european recovery . There is a great interest between the greek country and the european interest. In our view, it is highly probable that there will be it could take a bit of time. It could take some weeks. Probably, we will have an agreement to allow greece to pay the next payment they have due. And on a longerterm, the new agreement. Today, the main part of the greek sovereign debt is owned by europe. It is not really a question for the banking industry. We are convinced that due to this situation, agreement is highly probable. You have exposure to greece, but do you have a contingency plan in place for a greek exit . We have not considered this scenario at all. So there is no contingency plan . We are not considering the scenario at all. The Market Reaction has been a bit anxious. It is not really a big question for the market. That was sosa get generals sociweete generales deputy chief executive talking to caroline connan. Caroline hyde is here. We understand that profits have been under pressure from these mining groups. Rio tinto, second biggest in the world. Copper down on the concerns about chinese demand. Still, we saw underlying profit drop by 8. 8 . That was better than expected. Many felt it would drop up to 12 . Managing to hold a profit and they are giving back money to investors. This is what everyone has been shouting for. They are going to give the 2 billion buyback. They are also upping their dividend. Overall, they are raising their overall payout to investors. They are giving 5. 9 billion back in total for the last year. Dividend up by 12 . 2 billion share buyback. It is about in the middle of what analysts were looking for. Clearly, rio tinto doing much better than jpmorgan had thought. When you are looking at their overall presentation, the focus is so clear. They are trying to repent for their previous years of going out and building up debt. Now, their focus is costs. Reduce costs. Reduce capital expenditure. They are not digging holes in the ground willynilly anymore. They are going to be very specific. They know there is going to be a glut in supply of iron ore. They are trying to just focus on projects that make financial sense. Capital expenditure and debt coming down more than expected. They are also selling assets. 4 billion of divestments. The key ones, cash returns, upping them 64 . What is interesting is who they are fighting right now. They are trying to fight off being an m a target themselves. Is that part of the reason they are returning this cash to shareholders . It is. Keeping the wolves at bay. That is what sam walshs mantra is. Glencore owns mining assets, but also does the trading of commodities. They are looking to pounce, it would seem. They have made an offer for rio tinto back in july. Rio tinto rejected it. Assets, but also does the trading of commodities. Many feel they will come back to the table. If rio can stand by the fact that it is trying to please its own shareholders, rain in capital expenditure, be a savvy miner going forward, it gives glencore less of a reason to try to get in there. It is cutting its own costs to stop being a target itself. Caroline, thank you. More from you later. No deal in brussels as gridlock continues over greece. Euro area governments are delaying tough decisions on the future. Talks between greece and its creditors went into the early hours of the morning, but failed to bridge differences over greeces aid program. Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told bloomberg the mood of the meeting was positive, but refused to answer our questions about the reality of funding greeces government. I hope it is a positive one. It should reflect the positive attitudes of everyone around the table today. I was impressed by the openness, the understanding of course disagreements, but very civilized disagreements. It was quite clear to me and my colleagues that the intention of everyone was to find common ground. That, to me, is greatly encouraging. Any closer to issuing another 8 billion in tbills . Dont ask me. It is a serious question. Will you have the ability to fund your government . [indiscernible] that was the greek finance minister speaking to hans nichols in brussels. Also in brussels, Tom Mackenzie. He has been up all night tracking the story. What exactly could not be agreed upon at the meeting . Frankly, not very much at all. Last nights meeting came on the back of Yanis Varoufakis whirlwind tour of european capitals where he was trying to drum up support for the new greek governments proposals. He also went into this meeting with a number of principles he described for a new deal. Some of those included debt for financing sustainability. He also wanted the humanitarian crisis in athens addressed and he wanted debt restructuring. His counterpart in the eurozone pretty much didnt budge on any of those last night. Heres the reaction from the eurogroup president after the meeting. We had an intense discussion covering a lot of ground, also making progress, but not enough progress at this point to come to joint conclusions. We will continue our talks on monday. The eurogroup president talking there. He was one of the big players in attendance, along with mario draghi and Christine Lagarde watching from the wings. There were moments of optimism during this meeting, which rallied the euro. There was a point where we thought they would come out with a joint statement on a bailout extension. When varoufakis phoned back to his colleagues in athens, that came back and that joint statement was nixed. This now focuses attention on tonights summit of european leaders. They want to be focusing on russia and terrorism, but greece is back on the agenda for them. It is going to be the first place where merkel and tsipras are going to meet each other. The next big date is next monday , february 16, another eurogroup meeting. Theyve got to do a lot more than just agree to talk. They have to come with something concrete. February 28 is when this current Bailout Program for greece comes to an end. Time is of an essence. Back to you. Tom mackenzie covering that story on greece out of brussels. Lets move our attention to eastern europe. Leaders have gathered in minsk negotiating ukraine peace talks as we speak. The delegates are aiming to enforce the ceasefire agreed upon in september. Talks continuing into their 13th hour. We are following the developments. Ryan has been following the developments. What do we know . They are going to sign something. We dont know who is going to sign it. There has been some talk that it would be signed by just two of the parties. Basically theyve kept a tight lid on negotiations. They are now in their 13th hour. We have a picture of the room where we are expecting the signing. There it is. Independence palace . That is where the russian and ukrainian president s have spent the last 13 hours negotiating. What i understand is that it is in the last half hour some of the russian delegation has gone to meet with some of the militants, if you will, leaders of the fighters in eastern ukraine. They are not officially invited to these talks. Russia is representing their interest and they will presumably return after some kind of agreement. Then, the german and french leaders have to go to the eu for more talks. It sounds like mr. Poroshenko might be joining them. They are still trying to negotiate a peace accord and yet the economy of ukraine needs assistance quite urgently. Absolutely. We are expecting to hear from the managing director of the imf. She is supposed to give a press conference at 8 00 a. M. London time. We dont know for sure, but it is likely that she going to talk about a new deal for ukraine. Ukraine needs about 15 billion of assistance. We heard from the Prime Minister, saying ukraine has about 48 hours to cut a new deal with the imf. Christine lagarde is disposed to doing a deal. There have been lots of talks lots of suggestions that they are getting closer and closer to announcing something. The key will be perhaps not the headline number. Are they going to get all they need . But how fast are they going to get that money . And the currency has been falling. The worlds worst performing currency in 2015 so far. It is extoraordinary. Down 39 yeartodate. The conflict has been going nearly a year now. More than 5000 people have been killed. Nearly 13,000 People Killed according to the united nations. Ryan, thank you very much. Lets look at some of the other stories we are following this morning. President obama has requested new authority from congress to wage a military campaign against islamic state. It would allow limited deployment of Ground Troops but would not include their use in offensive Ground Combat operations. Obama said the Extremist Group presents a threat to the u. S. If left unchecked. Make no mistake. This is a difficult mission. It will remain difficult for some time. Its going to take time to dislodge the terrorists especially from urban areas, but our coalition is on the offensive. Isil is on the defensive and is going to lose. Tesla is down. Stocks fell in extended trading. That is according to a letter to investors posted on the companys website. Tesla missed its delivery goals and slow manufacturing and Severe Weather meant shipments slipped into the third quarter. United Airlines Says it wont honor cheap flights booked as a result of a computer glitch. The airliner blamed a thirdparty Software Company for allowing customers to book flights by putting denmark as their billing country. Is the game up for greece . With no bailout deal on the table, the regions most indebted nation faces some challenges. We discuss that and more on countdown next. Welcome back to countdown. The future for greece is still uncertain. Finance ministers left tough decisions on a bailout the next week. Talks failed to bridge differences on how to keep funds flowing. For more on the fiscal crisis, we are joined by Gabriel Stein. Thank you so much for joining us. Do you have one fixed view on what is going to happen with greece or are you considering many options . I and my colleagues are considering many options. Our main forecast is still there will be some kind of compromise. There will be a deal. It will go down to the wire, but within that, who is going to blink most . Is it the greeks or the germans . I also think there is one big worry which i fear. That is, both sides believe they have the strongest hand and it is up to the other guys to blink and nobody blinks. That is a downside risk. But you are not counting such an eventuality, are you . It would make economic sense for greece. It would be good for the eurozone. Or rather, greece should never have been a member. Today, it would be bad politically for the eurozone. But it is not a main scenario. Its and outcome which, clearly none of the players desire. That doesnt mean it wont happen, just it is far down the line. Is the language used here going to be key . Any kind of agreement will be have to be possible to sell to the people back at home. We saw Prime Minister tsipras posting pictures on twitter of a rally in athens. Many supporters coming out and saying they like the antiausterity status. Theyve got to have something that is sellable back in greece. They do indeed. But theyve already indicated some signs of compromise. They are prepared to accept 70 of the bailout and so on. Once an agreement is reached, assuming that happens, there will be some cosmetics. For instance, the troika is no longer in charge. Theres been talk of bringing in the oecd. But yes, it is probably more important for tsipras to be able to say, we managed to get our key demands. For the germans, the european partners, less of an issue. But ultimately yes, greece will repay is probably an important point even though it is highly unlikely. We are looking at key metrics to see what it is like on the ground. Whether it is greek deposits, the possibility of default by the credit default swap market what about emergency liquidity assistance . The lifeline for greek banks. Could the ecb withdraw e. L. A. . What would happen if it occurred . The last question is really easy. If the ecb were to withdraw the e. L. A. They dont authorize it to continue and you need a two thirds vote. If they do that the greek Economic System collapses unless greeks starts printing its own money. So thats easy. Under what circumstances, this is complicated. The whole point with e. L. A. Is that if everything is going to be all right, it doesnt matter. But if you fear there will be a breakup, then it matters hugely. But it seems to me that for the ecb to come out and say, we are stopping the e. L. A. , that is tantamount to saying, we have taken the decision to throw grease out. That would be too political a move for the ecb to make. They would have to have at least agreed to this before hand. If that were agreed, if the deal was to kick the greeks out, why do it via the ecb . Gabriel, thank you for joining us. Great to get your insight. Should we look at some live pictures from minsk . Russian, ukrainian, french, and german leaders negotiating a ceasefire for ukraine. We are in the 13th hour of talks between the leaders of those four countries. They are trying to negotiate an enforcement of the earlier truce that took place back in september. That seems to be the focus. Russian representatives said before this meeting that this is about the practical implementation of that september accord. That previous accord in september was widely ignored and collapsed in january. We have Petro Poroshenko, Francois Hollande, Angela Merkel, and Vladimir Putin meeting in minsk to try to negotiate. And it could determine if peace takes hold or war breaks out. If the u. S. Or some european allies supply arms to ukraine. There are lots of permutations that rest on the outcome of today. Follow us on twitter. Minsk is one of the trending subjects today. Frances secondbiggest bank societe generale, gave us their earnings earlier. We will hear from the ceo just after this break. Stay with us. A lot to cover this morning on countdown. You are watching countdown. Time for a look at the Foreign Exchange markets. The Australian Dollar. Weve had a key piece of Economic Data in australia unemployment climbing to a 12. 5year high. That is underscoring last wiis decision to cut Interest Rates to a record low. The jobless rate in australia rose 6. 4 from 6. 1 . That was the worst since august 2002. It exceeded the median estimate of 6. 2 from a bloomberg survey. The number of people employed fell by 12,000, led by declines in eastern states. This is the Australian Dollar versus the u. S. Dollar year to date. It has fallen by 6 . It is down to . 76, the lowest point since may 2009. As i said, this data underscores the move by the australian centralbank last week when it unexpectedly ended a 17month pause. It cut rates in an economy that is on track to expand below its potential for six of the last seven years. Its efforts to encourage investment have been hampered by renewed government infighting. The unemployment level climbing to a 12. 5year high. That sending the Australian Dollar to its lowest level against the u. S. Dollar since may 2009. Breaking news. Renault reporting numbers this morning. They are on a hiring spree. They are going to hire 1000 people in france. Look