Hello. Welcome to countdown. I am mark barton. And i am anna ed3wards. And i and manus cranny. A key transport hub, the second day of the ceasefire, and we will bring you the latest. Just about 6 00 in london, and lets talk about greece. Euro finance ministers reconvene in brussels, aimed at breaking the gridlock between greece and its creditors. The greek minister said he was confident of a favorable outcome for greece, signs of a willingness to compromise sending greek stocks and bonds higher on friday. And in athens yesterday, an estimated 20,000 people gathered outside the parliament in a show of support for the government. Hans nichols has been monitoring developments over the weekend. Good morning to you. What is the greek strategy going into this . They still want a raging loan, and dont they . They do. They are likely to plead for more time, not necessarily more money. I hesitate to report i am phil in berlin. I will be heading to brussels in a few hours. The market expectation on that meeting is very much that there will be a compromise. The danger is if you do not get a compromise, if you do not get a deal, there could be some market reaction, but as you said, the Prime Minister is pretty confident of a deal. Here is what he said over the weekend. He said we are looking at to the cult negotiations. Nonetheless, i am full of confidence. You can look at that crowd outside of athens, 20,000 people, and you can say this is going to hold the governments feed to the fire or provide more leeway. There is more confidence, and there was a poll at 61 of greeks supporting the government approach to writing down the debt or changing the negotiations, the longterm terms of that debt. That may give them some leeway. Over the weekend, the technical advisors talked about not just areas of where they agree or disagree. This was about getting a clean set of data, a clean set of books for negotiations. When you take a look at that pile of greek debt, it bears looking at who holds what. They have about 100 41 billion. Another 52 billion in bilateral loans. That could be a tricky thing to negotiate. Then more is owned by the db. The meeting starts at 2 00 p. M. In brussels, and we will see how it turned out. Gauging whether the german side of this conflict, if you can call it that, is prepared to give any ground. Well, it looks like they may want to shift some of their focus on tax collection. They are obviously talking on the ground. There are technical meetings going on and sort of 4. 5 percent of their earlier demand, and that is the budget surplus, so that is a key area where germany could prime down a little bit. And then there is the issue of greece saying in the program. That meeting does start at 2 00 p. M. And that gives a lot of time before it gets dark and gets late. I am going to be standing outside and taking pictures of the motorcade, of the cars lining up. That is going to be our indicator. If we see headlights before 10 00 p. M. , that could be a positive inclination. Dont trade on that, anna. I know you dont trade anyway but we will be looking for a tell tale signs out of that meeting in brussels. Not if you tell me not to. Hans nichols joining us from berlin. For more, lets go to john dawson in hong kong. He has the numbers that break down the data for us. The headline, i suppose we should be grateful that they are out of recession but i have now got language prints in japanese all over my bloomberg. Actually, the number was not as good as forecast. However, it is a very, very big plus. Fourth quarter was positive. And stocks were at a high, and that is a positive, a good one. There was the First Quarter fourthquarter forecasts, and it came in up, so that was a significant miss, but it really is about a theme about positives. Markets taking that forward. Also, the growth is modest. These are the three things. Out of recession. Modest growth. That is a strong item. Indeed. Lets talk about abe, because we have got the bank of japan. How are they going to react to these . The yen is rising. Traders are the least bearish since the middle of last year so it is a debate about dodging more quantitative easing or not. The market seems to be a bit wary. There were his words and, in fact, it is counterproductive was the word used. Too much easing will be negating growth as opposed to helping it. These figures, of force, negates the reason for having it. For abe it means a sales tax rise out of the way for now. That is positive. He is back out of recession. That is his political spin. One quarter for his one quarter and two or three quarters of growth, great. You have got the answer in the bag. You are quite right. On hong kong in the data. Danish Police Killed the gunman suspected in saturdays attack that left two dead and five Police Wounded. The shootings are being investigated as a terrorist attack. They say it couldve been inspired by events in paris and the Islamic State. The danish Prime Minister said the attacks were not reflective of a western battle with islam but rather against ideologies. We are not in a fight between islam and the west. This is not a battle between muslims and nonmuslims. It is a battle between ideas based on freedom of the individual and a dark ideology. Lets get straight to copenhagen, where security is at an alltime high. Our bloomberg reporter is on the ground. What is the latest, and what do we know about the shooter . Well, on the shooter, police have been rather restrained in what they have told us. We know he was 22 years old, from denmark, known to police. He had been arrested and involved in a stabbing and freed on parole. They have further identified him. There are examples of him having boasted he had carried out this attack at the synagogue, and that is what we know at the moment. Tasneem, copenhagen is a city where mothers are used to leaving their babies in prams outside cafes. Copenhagen is known as being liberal, one of those most liberal in the world. How has this changed copenhagen and denmark as a whole . Well that remains to be seen. I was shocked to see Police Parked everywhere on the streets, i have never seen that before since i have lived here, and as you say, it is a society that is unusually between the people who hold power and regular citizens. With copenhagen, they need to be prepared for much heavier, much more visible Police Presence on the streets. Thank you for joining us. We will speak to you later. On the ground in copenhagen today. And you can find more on that story at bloomberg. Com for the latest on that story, Danish Police kill shooting suspect after copenhagen manhunt. Right. The top stories on bloomberg this hour. The ukraine ceasefire is at risk of unraveling. The kiev government and prorussian militants are both accusing each other of several ceasefire violations at that town, which connect the cities of lugansk and donetsk. Policymakers say week u. K. Inflation will be temporary, indicating that the chance of more stimulus remains low. The governor for Monetary PolicyCommittee Told sky news that negative Interest Rates were possible but not likely. Another was quoted in the observer newspaper that inc. Rates will rise earlier than Market Participants currently expect. The chief executive of Hsbc Stuart Gulliver has apologized about how the banks swiss unit helps customers even a taxes. In several newspapers, gulliver said the revelations had been quote, a painful experience. He said since 2008, the hsbc Swiss Private Bank has been completely overhauled. And a chief executive could be planning as many as 10,000 job cuts at a u. K. Retailer, and up to 6000 of those jobs could go from their head office. Over 40 store closures have also been announced. Opposition leader Edward Miller band will set out a plan to boost productivity. He is expected to signal a move away from a tax and spend model for the labour party at a speech at the Jaguar Land Rover plant in one area. He is trying to overcome objections that his party is antibusiness. One politician is having surgery after a diagnosis of prostate cancer. He will be on medical leave for a week. He is expected to make a full recovery. In a twitter post, the 63yearold lee said he was all prepared for the surgery. And a quick reminder that it is president s day in the united states, marking George Washingtons birthday ann, of course, the market will be closed. And markets across asia right now i have got my engine revved up. Still in japanese. Japanese adding to my irish fluency and my spattering of french. There you go. Coming up, greeces fate left in the hands of european creditors. When it could mean for the future of the eurozone with simon french after two minutes time. Stay tuned. Agrees has sort of a creative solution. I am not sure it will be implemented. I think it is very important that some sort of solution be proposed. It read end up defaulting, it will be potentially dangerous for the eurozone as a whole, and i think they would see that, as well. That was a Nobel Prize Winning economist speaking with bloomberg about the danger of a greek debt to von. More on the fate of greece he are joined with a senior u. K. Economist. Welcome to the early side. Thank you very much for coming in. So they are all gathering again in brussels. I was isolated last week in the swiss outs, but today is going to be a day in terms of doing a deal to keep greece in the eurozone . You will probably get something today that will be for the markets because there are just too many questions out there. There are too many people working on this in the eurozone. I think robert is right in the package you just had. There will be a deal of some sort. They will reduce heymans, make them contingent potentially on growth and on the primary surplus in greece and still keep that redline for the German Shepherd no debt writedowns and some solution will be found whether it is today or in two weeks. History suggests they will try to put it right to the deadline. This is very much brinkmanship. We have got february. Kicking it down the road inconceivable. You do not rule out greece leaving the eurozone . No. I think it is almost certain they will leave at some point. The question will be what is going to be that trigger point, and my own view is when we start moving beyond a conversation about the debt deal and having a conversation on the kind of Spending Plans when they start to get implemented, will the germans say no, and if they do it is a suggestion that greece can leave, and that has been a rubicon for many at the center to contemplate, and the door could revolve. But they cannot survive in the current structure of the eurozone. He cannot survive without greek great structural reform to make greece look like germany, or there is this goal change. That is not going to happen either. Between the german politicians and the german electorate and the greek politicians and the greek electorate. They are just not talking about the real issues here. Meanwhile, there is this emergency liquidity assistance program, which the ecb extended to 65 billion until the end of last week. At the and of next week. They could shut off that assistance. Does that tell us that that likelihood is not going to happen . They will not shut off that program . Ticking the can down the road with more cash in the short run. This is hoping that something will appear on the horizon. Yes, you look at the eurozone growth figures on friday, and growth returned to well certainly to germany, which had a falling euro, and they are hoping that spread wider, and that as a substitute for what we really need here, which is increased german fiscal spending, and the kind of money you are talking about is simply kicking the can down the road. As we look at some of the polls overnight, there were some demonstrations against, showing more support for this government. When we reached that sort of close of business on the 28th when a deal has to be done, the greeks are going to have to take more pain, arent they, in order to get the germans on their side . There will have to be some compromise. Lets look at the statements the minister made in greece and the statements the german finance minister said. In terms of a deal, you can make payments contingent on some element of the primary surplus, which is the greek position, and you can just increase the term play around and find a solution. But the question is, where does that take us to . It takes us nowhere, ultimately. Lets go with that conversation a little bit. This raises all kinds of questions about europe about the rise of extreme parties or at least extreme up the political spectrum parties. If we look at germany, there was an election in hamburg, and we saw one Group Getting their first entry into the west german state. Do we read anything out of greece and germany, and we will talk about u. K. In a moment, changing politics in europe . Are things developing in a way we understand right now . Probably more from a perspective of how poorly the party of Angela Merkel does and what position that puts her in about concessions to the greeks, but the two big him a flashing risks to me remained france and italy and the rise of Marine Le Pen in france. Close to the u. K. Here, so what does that mean . I think it means the taxpayers have become sick and tired with actually not being spoken to honestly about the future entails. I think everybody in the eurozone understands that we either have to have structural reforms, the economies look the same, or we have fiscal integration. Nobody is talking about that. Parties are on the rise. We had simon and others speaking over the weekend, suggesting that a move in rates will be a higher one, even after the Inflation Report suggested we could see further qe and negative rates if deflation persists, which is not in their thinking. Is that in your thinking, the next move will be tighter policy rather than easing of policy . My view is that it is 2015 in the u. K. , and we will see deflation. Deflation in the first half of the year as the oil prices it continues to feed into the headline data, but once you get past those and also the general election in may, you can see wages taking over as the key driver, the key determinant. You look at the labor market figures coming out in the u. K. Now almost 18 months, they have just been getting stronger and stronger, and they are already seeing the margins and the hotel industry. This goes back to the kind of normal conditions that central bankers are absolutely craving after six years at zero Interest Rates. You look at the headlines, which are get ready for your cheap holidays in europe. The sterling against the euro is at a sevenyear high. Looking at the currency that we way here at bloomberg, you can see it is number three in strength. It is nothing to be swiss, and nothing to the dollar. It is a strong currency. How does that play into it . A strong sterling keep inflation under control, and therefore, that just gives the bank of england longer he for it has to raise Interest Rates, but it does make it challenging for u. K. Exporters, so the increased strength of sterling particularly against the euro it is up 8 over the past six months, and that will obviously make it more challenging for u. K. Exporters, but there is a sweet spot right now in terms of the economy, and it is really pointing with the obvious exception of productivity, they are really pointing to a very positive picture in 2015. Nothing else in the cbi growth forecast. And then the parallels we are seeing today and 1974 in u. K. Politics. You talk about how we ended up with a hung parliament, and then there was another election pretty quickly after that in 1974. Are you expecting that to happen now . Things have changed. The rules about calling second elections are different than they were in 1974. Some people are suggesting this. What are your thoughts . I think that is right. The fiveyear term, that was predicated on a coalition of an absolute majority. I mean, it isnt obvious where the majority is going to come from. It is very difficult to see a stable coalition. Certainly not the last five years or a labor laboursnp coalition. You spoke about where there wasnt Oil Price Shock that was on the upside. And Eu Referendum later in 1975. There was an inconclusive election in february and that a second one in october. It does feel a lot like that period, and i think while a second general election is not necessary, our central scenario a lack of clarity of coalition that we had in 2010 is what we expect to happen this year. And that means economically, that is not a bad option, because they cannot do anything then. Steady as they go. I could not agree more. If you look at what is there today, do you really want politicians micromanaging . You probably dont. You want them stepping back. Yes. And you can expect some of the big builders in the u. K. Simon french, a senior economist. It is 6 26 here in london. Were going to take a short break. You can join our conversation on twitter. Coming up on countdown, hsbc issues an apology about tax evasion at their swiss unit. We will bring you reaction after the break. Stay tuned. You are watching countdown this monday morning, and looking at how Exchange Traders you the world, as you can see, the dollar is a little lower. The tail sales in america disappointed on friday. We will get the Federal Reserve minutes of their meeting in january, but as greece and europe come together but the conversation we just had with our last guest, it is that a deal will be done. Negotiators come together, so a little bit of a risk on face. You see the dollar a little bit lower. The yen, we heard about the gdp numbers from john dawson returning to the market than but less than expected. The yen rising. The yen is rising for the other day in a row. That is the longest rally and almost a month, and traders are betting. They are the least theres and they have been since july of last year, so you have a bank of japan meeting. They say no further stimulus, and it is whether the japanese will go with more quantitative easing, and