I am mark barton. As London Fashion week begins we will tell you how much the industry breaks for britain. We will tell you about londons next generation. Crunch talks in brussels over greeces proposal to extend its european loan row graham. Faxed yesterday the greek loan program. Yesterday the great Prime Minister said he has a positive conversation with Angela Merkel hours after her finance minister dismissed the loan extension request. The german rejection prompted an angry rejection from greeces deputy pm. We must realize at this moment it appears there are powers that would like greece on its knees so they can impose their will, and i believe we can all think of what helps our country and what helps these powers. Lets get the latest from brussels. Hans nichols is there. Are the germans prepared to negotiate or not . They apparently are leaving the door open to negotiations. I am going to give you for data points. Two of them are negative in terms of a deal. Two of them are positive. They are open to negotiation. They view this letter from yesterday as the basis points for negotiations that start here in brussels at three. Also on the positive side, you have this phone call and coming out of the phone call, mr. C tsipris was describing a positive tone, and it was nearly an hour lookng. An official said they did not discuss a bailout extension. They were only talking about a sixmonth loan. That is a dealbreaker for germany. The finance minister gave an interview with the telegraph. Im going to read some of the quotes because they are incendiary and do not suggest a dealmaking finance minister. Here is what he said. What we cannot accept is this fiscal adjustment be carried through because the rules say so. There is no macroeconomic argument that can be made for further tightening. Talks at the deputy level continued here in brussels and at 3 p. M. , finance ministers will be meeting here. Thats when i suspect we will have serious and intense final negotiations. This is in between the germans and the greeks. What is the other countries saying . We heard from the finnish Prime Minister. He seems to be more in line with the german view. You also heard from the french Prime Minister. He seems to be a little more open to relaxing the rules. Here is another final note on why things may be pretty tense. In a breach of protocol the greeks provided a readout what the germans were saying. The germans were saying they view the current proposal greece has offered as a trojan horse. That doesnt suggest either side is prepared to make a deal. It seems like we have a stalemate. The question is can the finance minister find some sort of solution. I will speak to you later. Lenovo said it messed up i Preinstalling Software that exposed its users to hackers. The biggest maker of personal computers has promised to have a fix ready today. John dawson is standing by in hong kong. This is software which was loaded up unbeknownst to the customer. Correct. This is a bit of a blow. The cheek tech officer said this chief tech officer said this we messed up badly. We made a mistake. Our guys missed it. We are owning it. At least they are being honest about it and transparent. They tell the public what youre doing about it and be honest. The software was preinstalled and may expose their customers to hackers. It was made by a Company Called superficial. It will be ready on friday. That is quite encouraging. Not only are they giving a transparent statement. They are also giving a solution as well. Thats a way to deal with the problem. Thats encouraging. Englands cricket performance not quite so. I smile out of shock because i cannot believe what just happened. Australia thrashed us. New zealand crushed us. You have first of all the fastest 50 ever. We got 109. Imagine if it was a test match. It would be so embarrassing. What do you do . If you dont play well, you get fired. The coaches and good enough, you get benched. The west indies ireland beat the west indies, some menaces feeling smug. Hence the reason im not axing asking the question. Ireland beating you. Tragic for you. Its even worse for you. England and scotland, the next humiliation awaiting england and the world cup. Lets move to more serious matters. Today marks the First Anniversary of the major massacre when around 50 protesters demonstrating in central kiev around what they saw as a prorussian and Ukrainian Government were shot dead during clashes with authorities an event which sparked the beginnings of the Current Crisis in the country. There appears to be no end in sight to the trouble with prorussian rebels defying a ceasefire last week to seize an important town in the north of the country. Despite the broken ceasefire germany, france, ukraine and russia say they are still committed to implementing last weeks Peace Agreement. What are the chances of that . I think what is happening now is the european powers who negotiated the agreement are desperately hoping it can be salvaged. This week has seen very fierce fighting for this town which is a strategic railway hub between two rebel areas. Basically what we are looking for is whether or not the agreement will be implemented. The most important clause is the withdrawal of heavy weaponry. That was due to start on tuesday. It hasnt started. There is a twoweek deadline for that to be completed. It is hard to say. It will depend on whether we see progress on that and the ceasefire holding. What about the idea of peacekeepers floated by ukraine . Is that a way to shore up the ceasefire . It is potentially. The problem is the ukrainians have said they want a European Police mission under a you in mandate. You need to have a ceasefire, so the peacekeepers could be something that later on might come in handy. They said another strategic city, a port city the rebels have said in the past they would like to take. Now we are looking at whether or not russia has sufficient influence to stop further offensive. Thank you. We will speak to you soon. Lets take a look at some of the other stories we are following. U. S. And iraq are planning a spring offensive to retake the city of mosul. It will require 25,000 troops to defeat up to 2000 Islamic State advisors. The battle will mark the first major test for iraq he forces since extremists swept across Northern Iraq last year. Meanwhile, the increasing involvement of middle Eastern Countries is spurring demand for the support systems it provides. Nations have joined with the u. S. And western allies in launching a strike in iraq and syria in the past few months, while egypt opened a new front with attacks on the group in libya. Apple has been working secretly on an electric car and is pushing its team to be in production as early as 2020. That is according to people with eligible to situation. This sets the stage for the battle with tesla and General Motors. Both of them are targeting a 2017 release of an electric vehicle that can go more than 200 miles on a single charge. The french drugmaker is planning to hire the new chief executive officer. He will start his new job on april 2. The move comes after the board fired the previous ceo in october. It was unhappy about his handling of the business including the loss of u. S. Share with a drug. Walmart is set to start paying its employees nine dollars an hour by april. The plan will result in raises for about half a million full and parttime workers at americas largest rabbit employer. It cost the company around a billion dollars. The minimum wage is currently 7. 25. Warren buffett cadillac has sold for 122000 and a half thousand dollars. It has an autograph on the dashboard. He has offered to hand over the keys to the winner. The car would normally be worth 12,000. Join the conversation on twitter. It is know what you think about the show. Let us know the stories you are following today. Let us know what you think about the show. Manas has been tweeting about his eating habits. What do you do everyday at 3 59 . If you are wondering what mark barton really does he want to have a look. Or manuscranny. Coming up, can greece realistically meet the current demands of its creditors . The numbers say no. We will break it down for you next. Austerity programs automated demented by greeces debtors. Very few countries have been able to meet the troy goes troikas. How to measure austerity and how it is unlikely to help greece get out of debt. Greece wants less austerity. Austerity is a word you can measure through the primary surplus ratio. This is what the country saves divided by gdp. If it is positive, you are saving money but inflicting pain. You are being austere. Greece requires for a surplus ratio of 4. 5 . This forces it to make decisions about budget. According to the imf, greece would need to hold the number higher at 7. 2 or a decade if it plans to pay down its debt to eurozone standards. There is very little reason to believe this is possible. Over the last 10 years greece has run from negative to very negative. Last year it not positive 3 . Encouraging, right . Take the eurozone as a whole. All those countries together hit threepoint 6 only once in 2000, and now it is back below zero. Lets go further back. In 1970 since 1974 only three countries have average greater than 5 . Belgium spent the 90s trying to meet eurozone standards. Greece might have considered during the same, but thats water under the bridge. According to the center for economic ellis e research, countries that hold a surplus over time tend to have that Economic PolicyResearch Countries that hold a surplus over time tend to have control by one country. These countries tend to have a high level of debt, which encourages them to save. They are likely to have a positive balance of payment. That is more money coming in than out. They are likely to say that a time of economic expansion. Can greece make it to 4. 5 as the current agreement demands . Probably not. Can greece make it to 7. 2 and pay its that down . No way, no how. Yes, when pigs fly. The odds are against greece when it comes to the current bailout demands. Lets bring our next guest. It is the senior currency and Interest Rate strategist at commonwealth bank. Great to have you with us. That puts into context the level of demand being placed on greece by europe. Over the last few years they have undertaken a great amount of austerity. They have gone from a deficit of 10 up to plus three. In that same time their debt to gdp ratios have blown up once again. I think the focus is on austerity and reducing debt and changing the budget dynamic is something the eurozone as a whole needs to get out of their minds. Now is a time to focus on growth. There is more to the ratio than just the numerator. Sometimes you need to focus on the denominator. The demands from greece to reduce the targets around 1. 5 , economically it is more beneficial for everyone in the long run. Particularly greece. It will help the economy continued to bounce back. It will make things easier politically Going Forward if they need to renegotiate their debt, but its now in the hands of the germans, who seem quite against looking to reduce those targets. It has been a week of big calls with a 50 likelihood of greece leaving the eurozone. Have the odds of greece leaving increased over the last week would you say . I would definitely say they have increased. I find it interesting how people can quantify these numbers but a have increased. It is a political debate rather than an economic debate. They have a real standoff coming through. The greeks have moved forward by requesting the extension. They have been a bit vague which is not so pleasing for the germans. I do think the risks have risen. The firewalls may have eased some of the concerns for some of the policymakers that they could manage an exit, but i still think it is an unknown. The risks have risen. I would think the baseline is they reach a lastminute resolution as they have done. We have got a geopolitical map of greece discussing things with their counterparts but there is another big move. We have u. S. Interest rates moving away from german Interest Rates by the most since 1989. Does that drives the Foreign Exchange story more than the greek geopolitical story . I definitely think so. What you have seen is the case Agency Contagion theory that drove the euro has not been there. Those mechanisms they have in place will definitely ease those fears. Its down to the yield dynamics and the structure in the eurozone is quite interesting now. You have negative short and rates. The qe program that hasnt actually started by the ecb is coming through. Net issuance is actually falling this year. Relative to the size of bonds being issued the ecb could be buying up to 200 in germanys case. The shift towards higher yields in the u. S. Is going to continue as the fed looks to normalize policy. What this means for the euro it is going to struggle to rally. You would think the downside is the main avenue through which it is going to move. Is it time to guess whether the fed will normalize policy after the release of this weeks minutes . You can see the case but you need to add to the argument the minutes predated the fantastic labor Market Report we had. January payrolls reports were great with all aspects of the higher precipitation rate. We will get more next week. I think that is the key event apart from greece. She was more upbeat than normal in the last press conference. It will be easy to see whether the tone continues. She has been very focused on the labor market in the u. S. , and i think she will be upbeat again. Is it the case of listen to what i say rather than what the statement says . I would say so. Even in the meeting where she had the last press conference, the statement itself was quite bland. When she started speaking she had a more positive tone. She indicated normalization or the patients language would remain in place for a few meetings or a couple, so she might get asked about that again. We are looking for the fed to normalize in the middle of the year. The risk around that is delayed. The real debate we are having is when, not if. This is the great debate as to whether the feds actions are very much priced into where we are with the dollar or whether we have the propensity to begin a much bigger move back to the 2002 levels. Im not even going to dream to go back to 1985. I havent even gone to university. Where is the momentum in the dollar . The big dynamic we have had over the last 12 months has been policy diverted between the fed and the ecb. The fed hasnt done anything. The rates market doesnt believe the forecast. They are pricing in the forecast early next year. There is only 19 . The u. S. Side has come kicking into gear. The ecb has done more policy than we expected. The u. S. Side of the story hasnt come through. I think the dollar side should continue. Which currencies are best placed against the dollar this year . When you look at the dollar against its major counterparts only the swiss franc, the israeli shekel, the rupee, and the japanese yen are up against the dollar. Which was the one to outperform the dollar most . I think it is still a dollar story, but the most constructive looks sterling. You have got positive economic momentum coming through real wage growth has turned positive for the first time in a long time. The broader eurozone is stabilizing. It looks like growth should pick up this year. That is the tail would tailwind for the u. K. The election quickly . What the election is a risk. Are you buying those options for sterling to go down . I think it is fairly priced. Great to have you with us this morning. The senior strategist at bank of australia. We are going to bring you the eurozone pmi data, all you need to know about what happens later in the show. Up next, the french yogurt maker danone after this short break. Stay with countdown this friday morning. Time to see how the world views the Foreign Exchange market. Joining us to discuss ukraine. There are couple of themes. One is the dollar is the only currency showing momentum in terms of an upward trend. That would be the first weekly gain in almost a month. The row is the only significant low liar. The liquidity extension for greece is one issue that is dominating markets. You can see as euro begins to assess, the eurodollar is just coming off. They still short the euro relative to the dollar because momentum is building. We just had that conversation with commonwealth rank, which is next week. Yellin and her testimony will be a more likely scenario to judge the next move of the Federal Reserve. The dollar index is completing its first positive week in almost a month. What you have got is the note from them. Morgan stanley basically are saying they are building tentatively. They are adding to their dollar positions. The other point is there is a good story i am trying to find. German Government Bond yields over u. S. Government bond yields. Almost 1. 7 . Extra premium. That extra premium to have a u. S. Bond then german. That differential is important. That is what drives Foreign Exchange markets. It is the widest and 1989. U. S. Bond yields over there g7 counterparts is over 5 . Interest rates and the virgins dominate the Foreign Exchange landscape. We are getting some breaking news from danone, the worlds biggest yogurt maker. It set a lower forecast this year than last year. Weakening currencies in emerging markets. Sales will rise for 5 on a like for like basis this year. Last years goal was 4. 5 to five. 5 . The company said it expects slight growth in the operating margin on the same basis. Trading operating at 3. 7 . That compares with 2. 6 9 billion euros. This is a company that has gone through a bit of a reshuffle. Farber is presenting the earnings for the first time today. A year ago it reported its first annual loss in more than a decade when it fought off bribery claims in china and a false alarm over baby food safety as well. The top stories this hour. Euro zone finance ministers will hold talks in brussels today over greeces proposal to extend its european loan program. Yesterday the greek Prime Minister