Readings. Manus the worlds secondbiggest mobile carrier in an m a spree. Well tell you what to watch. Mark welcome to countdown. Manus coming up two more bloomberg exclusives with tech titans. We are told why the u. K. Needs to stay in europe but the chief of the you ks Biggest Software maker says that British Business is resilient with her without the you. Morewithout the eu. Mark lets bring you up to speed with what you have missed. David is in hong kong with a look at the asian markets, good morning. David good morning. I mentioned earlier asia woke up to a rally on wall street. Things a started quiet, but once you had the hang seng the Chinese Markets opened and that is where we got a lot of heavy lifting done. The original benchmark, more or less at a threeweek high. Third day of gains. The shanghai composite is up 3 . Another 100 point game. Gain. This market is not for the fainthearted. Hang seng up and look at the topix index. Sevenyear high for japan. Week in southeast asia. Australia one of the top stories is the rba minutes, where they cut. A few takeaways, but to summarize, they left the option open, especially given the subdued equation. They also mentioned the chinese property sector. They described that as a significant risk when it comes to demand for commodities. We are at 62 for iron and or prices. Inflation it is the same story. You have inflation and weak demand for commodities. Take a look at the chart. The reason i bring this up watch out for a possible technical shaping up if things stay the way they are over the next week or so. The Australian Dollars 50 day average is moving up. Back in september, that is a 20 drop. Last time you had these two levels cross each other, just imagine the line here. This is your hundred day moving average. More or less, when these two moving averages crossed, the Australian Dollar fell 20 , and we are approaching a threshold where they could meet. Something to watch in the currency market. Back to you. Mark good to see you. Manus hes outflanking me. Lets turn our attention to one of the stories that just keeps growing greece set to seal a deal that could save it from bankruptcy. Creditors say they are inches away from a deal, but we havent heard any confirmation from the creditors. Yanis varoufakis gave a threehour interview that ended this morning. Lets go to hans nichols in berlin. Hans, parse away. Hans we do like to parse what is happening out of varoufakis. Good morning. All the optimism we heard from mr. Varoufakis and him we dont have any confirmation from creditors at what we have out of this interview is a couple new redlines from mr. Varoufakis. He seems to be backing away from this idea of holding a referendum. He said it would be unfair to the greek people. There is referendum, it would be a referendum on the euro, and it would be unfair for greek citizens to have to face such a dilemma an answer with a yes or no. Hans manus, it is a binary question. You look at the polling that has come out over greece, support for the Government Strategy has slipped to 35 . It may not be as strong as it was heading into these to negotiations. On this crys crucial questions of the existing debt john barrow says they will not agree to anything unless they restructure the existing debt. The problem is that it means a third bailout, another trip through parliament through all 18 parliaments in the eurozone that would have to approve it. Listen to how mr. Varoufakis put it. There was no one in our government, no one, not varoufakis, no one, who will sign an agreement that will precede the restructuring of the debt. Hans he also said no one is thinking of leaving the euro however there is a meeting with an series of and they are advocating for the european union. You have this notion of what they would do if they do come short on payments. Last night, mr. Varoufakis said they would rather go with the imf rather than pensioners. Manus hans what about this reported juncker proposal . Give us the details. Hans the eu has denied that younger is working on it that juncker is working on a proposal. There were reports last night that it would focus on the primary deficits are plus around 2 . It seems like the big stumbling block is what greece is going to do on pension and labor costs and we dont know anything in terms of what would be in the juncker proposal, how it would address privatization, labor. Those are the parts that the current bailout programs that greece seems to be chasing. So yes, we have optimism from athens, but my note of caution was from berlin and madrid and brussels. Then we might be able to be optimistic, but on a technical level they are quite a bit of ways away. Athens may not be merited. Manus thank you very much for rounding of the latest. Mark lets turn from greece to russia. Just under 17 billion, the richest man in russia the chief executive of the biggest Mining Company who shares more than 58 , and despite sanctions his personal wealth increased this year by nearly 50 . Ryan chilcote sat down with him yesterday for an exclusive interview and he joins us now. Ryan his 30 stake is worth 10 billion alone, worth more than 50 what it was a year ago. Part of the reason for that is the fundamentals and the demand for nickel and the worlds secondlargest economy china. We are confident that the situation in the nickel market is improving, and the market turns into deficit, and the growth in china. People are talking about growth in china. Ryan growth in demand. In demand, not just the metrics. It is a question that the Steel Production growth nickel consumption is growing by 9 . Im not just talking about your, economical things, im am talking about consumers. Consumers of nickel are consuming more nickel, 9 a year. That is why we think it would be old news. Ryan that is not the only good news. When you talk about nickel, you were talking about stainless steel manufacturing. But increasingly, it is being used in the automotive sector particularly in batteries. The likes of tesla, hybrid electric cars are creating this outside demand for nickel. Highgrade nickel, at that with the biggest premium. Of premium of almost double the price, just because it is a highgrade stuff that you need for batteries. That could be a driver of growth. Leaving geography and china aside, globally. Manus are looking at the dollarruble chart. Almost 70 rubles to the dollar that is improved. Last year was the worst performing currency. How does that play into the numbers . Ryan here is the surprise the ruble was the worlds worst performing currency last year and it is the bestperforming currency so far this year. But it is still down year to date by 30 . What does that mean for a commodity like nickel . Well, their costs are in rubles. Their costs are 30 lower generally speaking, then they were a year ago, and yet they are selling their nickel, their palladium, their platinum in dollars. If you look at the share price over the last year, the russian listed shares they are up 58 almost exactly like the devaluation of the ruble. Manus the russian ruble is up 23. 79 . Mark seal of approval. Ryan sometimes that is with the largest currencies they are always sort of manus exactly right. There is more to come from you later in the show. Ryan, thank you. As i said, more to come. Also over the weekend, from the ceo. Mark results from the worlds secondbiggest mobilephone here to look ahead is caroline. What can we expect to see . Caroline when it comes to Services Revenue the amount we spend we could be turning a corner. For once, we might not see negative service revenue. We are looking at an improvement in the Fourth Quarter for overall Services Revenue. We have seen 11 quarters of no growth, but for once, we are likely to see it coming in flat. We are still seeing a decline on a fullyear basis but we could see sales off by 4 . Meanwhile, earnings are likely to be down compared to last year and expected to be forecast to state flat to stay flat. Less than 20 billion pounds, so this is still a company struggling to turn itself around particularly in europe, which has been its strength. Lets have a look at what the trends are of vodafone. Where are we likely to see a turnaround . The likes of Deutsche Bank are saying that things are looking better with less pricing pressure. Economies are recovering. We are therefore expecting improvement in the market, in particular, barclays will likely say that it is stable and improvement is set to come. Keep an eye out for germany, and india in particular. This is looked to as a jewel in the future. They are spending big and india to beef up the spectrum, to be offering more coverage. This is a country they want to get into but for the time being they have had to invest more than reap reward. Mostly we are going to see a bit of a hit from the euro coming forward, a company that reports in british pounds. So when you bring your sales from germany, from france, from across europe back into the u. K. Sterling, it is not going to be quite the strong. Lets have a look at investment because this is a company that has been plowing in the cash. 90 billion euros has been the price tag and that comes to an edge next year. Interest in what some analysts have been saying that this has been more like a winter in the spring overall. They say that m a could be on the agenda. They spent big on kabul deutschland, but the big question is what about portugal . And liberty global, the ongoing speculation could they team up . Mark the top stories on bloomberg is our bloomberg spoke to the ebay Senior Executive about the upcoming referendum and whether it is good or bad for the countrys economy. I dont worry about the referendum itself. I am hopeful that the british people will decide to stay in europe. I think it has been a good thing for the u. K. Economy, i think it has given the u. K. A boost, allowing them sway. Mark Australias Central Bank indicates that it still can you see policy if needed. The rba says Slower Growth would result in higher unemployment. Carl icahn says apple shares are worth 240 to an open letter. He is also calling for a bigger buyback and believes that the tech giant will dominate in television and automotive industries. Uber is teaming up to pursue a mavs business. Maps business. The next round of bids is set to be due in two weeks. You can find more on that story at bloomberg. Com europe. Dont forget the europe. Manus jump onto twitter with both of us. Im manuscranny. This is a bloomberg. Com story which actually talks about the valuation of u. S. Equities. Q theory he he is given an instruction and goes into defiance mode. You take all the stocks in the usa and you sell them. To take the money and you go to replace all the capital and you should be left with money left over. But q theory says he would be left with money left over they say the stocks are therefore approximately 10 overvalued, one of the highest valuations that we have seen. Mark not everyone believes in the q theory, but has come back into vogue because of the s p hitting an alltime high. Coming up, we will speak to the a day after the finance minister told us it is not at risk of a downgrade. Manus then more on our interview with russias richest man and how he made billions on the rubles decline. Mark the uks Biggest SoftwareCompany Tells us the u. K. Is resilient with or without the eu. You will want to stick around. Manus but first, u. K. Inflation. We will get a preview with our next guest, coming up after the break. Mark u. K. Inflation data is due out later. Surveys are saying that Consumer Prices will probably stay unchanged. Lets bring in neil williams. Good morning. I cant wait to see the front of the papers tomorrow deflation for the First Time Since 1985. Neil the headline will be falling Consumer Prices, but lets not get carried away. If you want to go back further in history, historians would tell us that deflation used to be the norm. We had it as much as inflation up to the war years. But this is not proper, japan style deflation. This is essentially an oil inspired falling price. With a bit of food from an. I worked for a Japanese Institution that celebrated when they have pay cuts, because they were smaller than falling prices. Im not sure london and new york are ready for that just yet. Manus we look at oil, energy prices, gas prices, going up by 6 in the past month. There is downward pressure that will hes out over the next couple months that will ease out over the next couple months. How long do you think could it be a temporary phase . Neil it is temporary. The bank of england hinted that it will come over the next few months, so they have two more letters to write to the chancellor before the autumn. Because of basic facts, you get a slight, vshaped profile in the Inflation Numbers not just for the u. K. But for the u. S. , as well. That puts the banks back into their comfort zones, and they can start looking at ways to tighten the economy next year. Mark mid next year is what the markets are telling us about when the first rate hike is going to happen. Is that about right . Neil the markets are pricing out, largely our first rate hike in the u. S. And u. K. I still think the fed could slip in the first move before christmas. It is easier for the fed they dont just look at cpi, and having its employment mandates as well. The bank of england also will toward the end of the year begin to see inflation. It can sit on its hands this year and start to think about raising rates. Never mind the budget that will come to us in july. Manus if we have no inflation negative inflation no rate hike you think there will be a grab for the u. S. U. K. Yields. Colin 2 on the u. K. Im rounding up. Is that appealing . Neil of course, the great puzzle right now is why sovereign bond deals have moved up so sharply. A number of the bond bears will be saying i told you so straightaway, but it seems to me that there is a big clamp on bond deals ready to come back into motion, and that clamp the central banks. The European Central bank has set a line in the sand. It means by definition that anything yielding above. 02 are again going to look attractive. Im not sure weve got the end of the ball mark briefly, ahead of the referendum, whenever it takes place do you worry about the impact on the economy or not . Neil that is the big known unknown for the u. K. Economy, and logic suggests that the u. K. Probably wouldnt want to take away links with its biggest trading partner, dilute the relationship politically, or even forgo direct investments from asia. The uncertainty leading up to that, and maybe even after the referendum, could take the shine off. We know that these issues arent put to bed. Mark stay with us. Manus coming out dutmoodys rates south africa. Manus welcome back. Time to check in on the Foreign Exchange markets. The euro is in focus. Yesterday was one of the biggest drops in almost two months, down by 1. 2 . We have had news from varoufakis saying they are a week away from doing the deal. Consumer prices in the eurozone that is expected to dodge the deflation bullet, as they have done. The index is out in germany flatlining at the moment. The question is will the momentum continue to build . Will there be a relief rally in the greek Government Bonds . Which takes me very nicely to the swiss franc. That is the currency the euro swiss franc, i should say. The euro swiss franc is one of those currency players that is getting back to normal and that is what i want to bring to your attention. You are seeing the euro decline the swiss franc continue to rise almost in lockstep with the greek Government Bond and that correlation is getting back to normal, getting back to where we were in the good old days of when the swiss franc was a haven and when the euro actually began to drop as we saw with greek Government Bonds. The correlation is now a oneforone movement. The Australian Dollar is one of those currencies that is not doing what you would expect it to do on the back of the minutes from the reserve bank of australia. It is up 2 10 of 1 . The rba is saying the dollar dropped for the fourth day in a row but has managed to recover identified weaknesses in china. They are setting their Housing Market. For commodities the rba is quite dovish. Mark top stories on bloomberg this hour mongolia settling on a 5. 4 billion expansion of a copper and gold mine. That marks the end of bitter negotiations. The mongolian economy is set to get a major boost. Saddled with a total of nine affects not making the cut for the new, slimmeddown parents of the emergent company. The operation is devalued. The assets include a thermal coal mine to u. K. Oil and gas plants. Saudi arabias marshall elects a nineyear high. In iraq, the largest opec producer, they shipped 2. 9 Million Barrels, the most in at least eight years. According to the greek finance minister we are a week away. According to muscovy see, we are not there yet. I suppose we shouldnt be surprised by emerging views by diverting views. Neil bottom line and greek needs to find a. 5 billion euros by september. And i think it is a stark reminder that we are not out of this yet. It addresses the symptom but i cant address the problem, and the problem is that we have a monetary union. Countries that have different pension systems need to reform to become less disparate. This is going to take, i think years to solve. Manus do you think it is ironic that the germans hinted they wouldnt mind if there was a referendum . Very different to what they challenged the predecessors. Neil it seems to me that it is coming toward crunch point whereby greece needs to leave, which i think is unlikely or to stay in the club and Start Playing by the rules. Greece, either way,. Will default the question is will a default inside or outside and if they think outside is easier than it is probably living a lie. Better to get on with it and start trying to play by the rules. Mark on the matter of deflation, there could be no inflation. It was only a few months ago an improving trend . Is it sustainable . I