Thursday morning. Today toal bank meets discuss policy. Expectations are that it will update the forecast for inflation, and giveve investors clues as to whether it will change easing program. Investors will be listening closely to any comments from mario about the slowdown in china. Hans nichols joins us now from berlin. The morning to you. What are we listening for . Hans if mario starts off his press conference in mandarin, you know it is a bad sign. But what were really looking for are two things. What do they do . Expectations, if they do change, what sort of pants will there be for what they may do . They could maybe talk about hinting clues, extending it beyond september 2016. When you look at expectations, the big question is how are they going to factor in the lower price of oil. When we saw they did in june, when they had expectations for 0. 3 . Look at a price in june, the price of oil they were thinking of about 63 a barrel. They hit all the way down to 43 a barrel last month. When you look at last month, the Inflation Numbers across major economies, here is what we see in europe far below that 0. 3 . Take a look at germany at 0. 2 . France is 0. 2 . Spain is a negative numbers. Italy is higher. We had a strong message last night from the International Monetary fund. To all central bankers, saying do not even think about raising Interest Rate. That is not really in play here. Right . What the imf is saying, no one really expects a Court Decision on the benchmark rate for the ecb to change. But it is a hint that the imf really does see the effect of oil has not done much to spur growth. Take a look at some of the Inflation Numbers are, just when you factor in oil, you see fuel 8. 4transport down negative . Food is up, look at electric gas and household fuel that is down 3. 4 . We are looking down, will they tweak the forecast . What he says about china, in some ways, this is much more interesting than the actual rate decision. And the Central Bank President versus are always fun because we come with them that the assumption that central bankers are smarter than us. And no more than us. It is very difficult for journalists to extract any information. It is fun. You have to try. Anna chances are he will not be speaking mandarin. Asked aly if he is question in latin. There are some things that the ecb can do on greece. They can actually say the banks have access to nonliquidity assistance. Funding,rmal lines of that could really pressure. The decision on greece is important. You may also indicate it will be easier for the ecb to buy greek debt, or make it even possible to buy greek debt. Theyre not buying it now. That could be a major change. There could be greek news on the margin. But everyone really looking at those Inflation Expectation. Anna thank you very much. Hans nichols with everything you need to watch for from the ecb. Stay with bloomberg for what you need to know on the decisionmaking around Interest Rates, qe, inflation forecast. We bring you live coverage on the policy and then the News Conference 45 minutes later. Ecb news time for the conference. Now to the federal reserve. Ahead of tomorrows jobs report, before the key september meeting, the central Bank Released it survey. It expanded across most regions and industries in july and august, the report shows labor markets boosted wages for some workers. Phil mattingly breaks it down for us. Phil expanded across most positiveproviding a look for policymakers. That is according to anecdotal surveys from the 12 regional banks. Six reported moderate growth, and five reported modest. The survey covers july through mid august and says a mixed picture. There was positive growth overall, five districts reporting a strong dollar had dampened many manufacturing activities. Wages were higher in three districts cleveland, st. Louis, san francisco. Home sales were increasing in every district. Most district so modest labor demand. All of this information compiled gives fed policymakers a new set of data to consider in the weeks before the September OpenMarket Committee meeting. One thing they will consider, whether to raise rates for the First Time Since 2006. Secondquarter growth at 3. 6 and job growth at a steady clip, still, policymakers are facing extreme concern over chinas economic health. Given the timeframe, there was little mention about the recent market turmoil something certain to marmatter the policymakers in just two weeks. Back to you. Anna lets talk about breaking news we are getting here in europe. It surrounds the swiss crop science business. They are coming out with an update on performance and purchasing of chair. It seems theyre going to accelerate the activity, theyre going to divest global vegetable seed operation. They announced a share repurchase, that is the headline coming through. The initial repurchase will be over 2 billion. They also want to drive partnerships and investments. 2015 guidanceeir back in july, saying they are confident in their 2018 margin targets. Remember, this is a business that had been very recently a receiving attention from rivals in monsanto. It does appear that the activity givewe shoulaw will independent futures, i guess. That coming through, we will watch that in our time when the stock opens up. Lets head to asia. Is closedai composite today, as china separates a twoday bank holiday. Juliet is in hong kong. What is trading today . Juliet anna, a muchneeded from investors. We are seeing buying in the asian region. For the first time this week, the fact that we are seeing that to ivan day Public Holiday and that oneday of the holiday in hong kong, the markets are trading higher. Good games coming through today stocks being helped out by south korea. Secondquarter gdp in line with what the market was looking for. It has come back from earlier gains property flat the moment. Weakness is in the 100, a bit of a pulldown in new zealand. Disappointing sales figures from australia today which really railed on sentiment. You can see here that big drop in the retail sales number when it was released. It still seems to be some resistance to that 70 sent u. S. Level. Even though it is weaker against the greenback, it is holding that level. To some of the major movers we are watching in the asian region today, we have seen good pickup coming through as i mentioned on that japanese stocks. Toyota looking good, i tell coy co looking good. Samsung doing the heavy lifting. The banking stocks across the region found market cap on the regional benchmark fell almost 2 . Myer also having a big fall. Generally, sentiment much more proper. With that to ivan day reprieve from the china market. Anna thanks, juliet. Close more than 2 at the for a lastminute sprint on u. S. Equity. Lets turn our attention to china today, even the markets are closed. A huge parade marking the defeat of japan in world war ii is taking place in beijing. A number of World Leaders and officials were in attendance, including Vladimir Putin and you and secretarygeneral. Showcasedce which hundreds of weapons, including listing missile launches, also featured 12,000 chinese soldiers. Despite the unprecedented display of chinas might, the president used the occasion to announce the biggest cost to the military since 1997 and the commitment to peace. For more, lets go to david joins us now from hong kong. David, good to see you. What kind of message was he trying to send with this announcement . David the announcement about the 300,000 cuts to the troops of the Standing Army was a bit of a surprise. And some of the chinese academics i spoke to afterward said he is sending a message, to calm the nerves of the neighbors particularly those in the south china sea. Nhen you are wheeling a intercontinental ballistic march square, asnmen far as a way as united states, i reckon you are giving another message to the world as well. I would add the 300,000 personnel cuts, it is probably foreshadowed a big reorganization of the military. To make it look a little more like the u. S. Military with a Central Commander over their main military. Anna how big were hearing about the cuts question mark put it into context. How big is a military right now . David the context is that were looking at a Standing Army of 2. 3 million people. That is the entire number, more than 10 . The other thing to point out though, although china has his massive military and it is budget, it10 in the is still really lagging behind united states. It is only spending about half its budget, or less than half, compared to the united states. So it really has a long way to catch up, if it wants to go that far. Anna . Putin he is going to be a controversial display. Many World Leaders decided to stay away or send more junior delegates. Right. That is Vladimir Putin was there. You can see a tit for tat. He was in moscow for the parade Vladimir Putin held. Putin needs friends. China is an important friend. What do we see . Andaw most of the allies their leaders stay away. We also had the south korean who was there. She has another agenda, she wants to smooth up. G unis playing off kim jun in korea. She is trying to get a summit together with japan. That is something we will look at carefully in terms of geopolitical moves over the next couple of moves. Anna david joining us there from hong kong. We are getting breaking news this time from johannesburg. The skoda caroline hyde. She has the details. Caroline this is how the commodity impact is affecting the secondbiggest miner of platinum in the world. It is cutting production, raising more money 4 billion worth. They just posted a 4 billion loss of random. Is as the price of platinum slumps down 60 yeartodate. And they say the reason for raising the money, the price of platinum will be lower for longer. Theyre cutting overall costs and expenditure, cutting the cost budget. Here is the ramification of what we see when commodity selloffs and the corporations respond. Anna thank you. Responding to that falling commodity pricing. Coming up on the program, a warning from the imf. What it sees as the increased risk to the global economy, including disruptive asset financial turmoil. To the majorown Central Banks. And a look at the future of innovation, we will check out the latest gadgets trying to be the next big thing. We are live from europes biggest tech fair in berlin. Anna welcome back, it is 70 minutes that 6 00. Here of the stories you need to know this morning. Weaker Commodity Prices slowing trade in the Global Equities, making it likely that the ecb will downgrade the inflation forecast today. Economists say that action is unlikely to be announced after the meeting. But they will be watching for language indicating that the ecb 1. 1 trillion euro program could be expanding. President is saying there is no threat to neighbors. Leading a military parade to mark the end of the second world war, he announced Army Personnel would be reduced by 300,000. That is the biggest cut and study 97. Thousands of soldiers are marching through the capital. Other military hardware is on display. Nuclear dealmas with iran has moved closer. We have learned that he has enough votes to support it. 34 senators have now indicated they will back the agreements. Meaning the president can stop opponents from overwriting it. Both chambers of u. S. Congress plan to debate the resolution on the nuclear deal next week. The latest gadgets, gizmos, and trends were on show at berlins biggest show. We were there to figure out what tech fans were generating buzz. Nate one of the interesting things we have seen so far this week, and we were here before the show officially opens, we are standing in front of a construction site at the moment. One of the things we saw early yesterday, sony has announced the first 4k smartphone. To put that into perspective, that is the new Television Technology that is the successor to highdefinition. This is ultra high definition. Upare normally seeing that to 100 inches, were seeing this in a 5. 5 inch smartphone. This is the first time weve seen it. I managed to get my face close to this, and i did notice a difference between this new phone and looking at the past ones. Especially the iphone. That is getting heads turning this year. One of the other things we are seeing as well, a little bit more investment going on in Wireless Charging. We had intel showing off its basically increase the amount of power that can be transferred with Wireless Charging stations. The idea being that you can place a device on a surface, like a desk or workstation, and the device would charge without any wires. It is the holy grail of Wireless Charging. One of the few things we cannot do very well without wires is charging. But were starting to see developments come from a number increaseies to really the amount of power that can be transferred to devices without wires. Anna thank you very much. Anyoneese stations stop from borrowing my charger . I would love that. Steven spielbergs studio will part ways with disney. That is according to people with knowledge of the matter. Here with more on the blockbuster news is caroline once again. Caroline i havent got my script right. You will have to wait. Anna in fact, she is not available now. Iss talk about what the ecb likely to do. Lets get back to our top story. Words a mario, they will be listening for any close whether they will seal up the qe program from china. Lets get an economist perspective, william from her mes investment. Lets talk about the ecb. It seems to be there is an expectation that the market might cut back on the inflation forecast because of the assumption they have in making around oil prices when we last heard from them. Super eyes today on mario. I dont think he is super today. Recent events have probably pushed back inflation, given that the euro is about three and a half percent stronger. And oil is down about 15. On the other hand, the Growth Numbers have been moving quite nicely. I think he will need convincing that china as yet has had impact. Im expecting the language to be fairly open, he will pick up the baton after the summer. Any policy change would be a surprise. Anna i have a chart here of what the euro has done. What it has done against the dollar. Has this been not much of a headache for mario draghi . Some people were talking about whether we would get the eurodollar, now we are up around 1. 12. It seems like it was the beneficiary of recent markets, will we get ahead of the trend questio. He will want to see the euro appreciated significantly. Just like japan, the ecb is trying to throw as much cash as it can to weaken the euro. What he would be most concerned about is picking up again the baton of the qb. Between the two this year, they will pick up Financial Markets approaching three force of a trillion dollars. He always told us before the summer he would lay off. And he would carry on after. I doubt this year ahead of the deadline he would tell us that extension beyond september next year is coming through. So we will have to wait for that, for future months. Anna so we should not extend the timeline, but these programs . My concern has always been that he will have to extend it beyond 2016. Not necessarily for china reasons. The concern i have is the history of qe. Lets look at the u. S. , u. K. , and japan. After 17 years, once you have the tap on, hotties widget off . Going forward, as they start to normalize policies, how they switch off qe at a time when controlling debt as a share of gdp is important. Anna talking about normalizing the fed released their forecast around the economy. It was a bit beige. The economy expanded across most regions. How do you think thats sort of a backdrop, especially after the imf said they need to be data dependent and not rush with the Interest Rate hikes, moving gradually on Interest Rate, how does that set of the conversation for september . Beige is good for them. Maybe they will be wearing beige. It seems to me there is no need to go in september. I have always looked towards december, but more on inflation ground. If not inflation, illes by december, they will have cpi back over 1 . September will be looking under half a percentage point. It is far easier by december. But even then it will be a slow and gradual process, the move toward highest Interest Rates in the u. S. And the u. K. Next year. Baby steps. Anna theyre try to work out just what kind of impact the chinese turmoil we have seen is going to have on developed markets. And you think the chinese authorities need to do more to get a handle on their economy to stimulate the economy. What kind of stimulus are you looking for . Neil china has failed to deal with a symptom. Now is the time to address the underlying problem. Which is the economy, which clearly is slowing. But i have to say i lose more sleep about the president than china because even if china is growing at 4 and running out of steam, at least is still has it. And it does have the wherewithal to get things going. Policy dashboard has far more buttons and certainly we do in europe. Cuts willr rate follow, Interest Rates are still way higher than inflation. Cuts in the reserve requirements, and no doubt the fiscal government could be pressed. If all else fails, they could even do qe to start buying up debt. Anna you are the second guest in two days to talk about the place. I give her a much for joining us. Good to see you. Chief economist at hermes. The president of the ecb is feeling the pressure perhaps. More details when they return. We live in a pick and choose world. Choose, choose, choose. But at bedtime . Why settle for this . Enter sleep number. Right now all beds are on sale. Sleepiq technology tells you how well you slept and what adjustments you can make. You like the bed soft. Hes mor