Welcome to countdown. Im guy johnson. Anna is down in brighton. We will be with her shortly. Let me tell you whats happening on the markets. U. S. Futures are a little softer at the moment. Over the last half hour, they have started to firm a little bit. When i was in this morning, the s p was called down by 0. 5 . As london traders start to make their voices heard, maybe we will see that continue. At the moment, u. S. Futures are looking a little softer. In around an hour, we will find out what the european picture is. In terms of the news at the moment, market still feels very jittery. This is quarter to date. This is the japanese yen continuing to massively outperform its peers. The market is looking for a safe haven. The japanese yen is where it is looking. Big moves into the yen continuing. That is a quarter to date figure. An interview in a french paper, Christine Lagarde talking about maybe cutting global growth. Again, this going back to the heart of the issue, this concern about what is happening. The structural story surrounding growth is beginning to wonder people in the markets. Juliette saly standing by for us in hong kong. Juliet bank it has been a quiet day of trading asia. Later in the week, the golden week. The chinese sharemarket will be closed for five sessions. It is a little weaker at the moment. That Industrial Companies profit story, the big story of the day. We have seen some weakness coming through. Industrial Companies Profit falling 8. 8 in august year on year to the lowest level in four years. Over in japan, weve got 1000 stocks on the topix Index Trading with dividends. On the nikkei, out of the 225 stocks listed, 168 are active today. That is the reason we are seeing a 1. 1 drop in japan. Singapore has been in focus today. 2012, level since june mainly due to a big fall from one of its biggest stocks, the main telco provider, which is down around 4 at the moment. That is weighing on the overall index. Most of the other markets in the region are also lower. In australia, there have been some support coming through from the banks and the utility and infotech stocks. Onlysx 200 pretty much the major bright spot in the region. The new Zealand Sharemarket hasnt been moving much at all. Currently up 0. 2 . Volume very low because we have a number of markets in asia on holiday. Volumes down about 4 from where they are normally this time on a monday afternoon in asia. I want to show you some of the currencies. The yen has been a safe haven. A lot of these emerging market currencies are under pressure. The Malaysian Ringgit golding holding at 4. 4055 against the u. S. Dollar. The thai baht is also coming under a little pressure, down 0. 1 against the greenback, which is going to be the currency in focus. Guy busy week coming up. Thank you very much indeed, Juliette Saly updating you on what is happening in the asian markets. Lets bring it back to europe. Proindependence parties have one bank a majority in catalonias regional election. It is an election they touted as a de facto vote on independence. The catalog president who promised to secede from spain alans have made a decision on their future. We have succeeded in letting people vote. We have succeeded in letting people have their say on the political future of catalonia. Guy hes speaking in english there. Lets talk a little bit about what might happen next. Tom mackenzie joins us from barcelona. Thee does this leave Independence Campaign . Isnt the victory the Independence Campaign wanted, quite frankly. They did get a majority in Congress Thanks to this partnership with the Anticapitalist Party that is going to cause some difficulties in negotiations going ahead. They did get a majority in the popular vote. They know the Popular Party in madrid and the socialist party are both going to use that to push back against the Independence Campaign. Its difficult now as we look to the future. They dont want to work with him. Theyve got very little in similarity politically. The only thing they have is their preference for an independent catalonia. Theres going to be some difficult negotiations going ahead in barcelona. Then, of course those negotiations once the government is formed moved to madrid and possibly brussels. Heard that this is not a clear mandate and the Popular Party of the Prime Minister are going to come out and say the same thing. All focus now on december, the elections, and whats likely to be a shaken up government. Use to lose his majority. Is there going to be some wiggle room for tax renegotiations with catalonia, restructuring of a as well, restructuring tax credits, those questions are now looking ahead to december. Guy so at this point, a confusing picture coming out of the region. We wait until december, then we start to get an idea what the implications of this really are. Is that the story . Is it still a relationship with madrid and how that affects economics, or are people talking about a directive from this vote . Tom we in uncharted territory. Catalonia, almost 20 of spains gdp, around 16 of its population, and economy almost the size of portugal. It is very significant. How these negotiations go forward is a key question. Goldman sachs put out a report saying this is Political Risk and this is something to keep an eye on. If this mandate they say they are going to use now to push for greater autonomy here, if that goes through, theres loggerheads now. Thats going to be difficult. What brussels is going to say, we heard from obama in the u. S. , from merkel in brussels, and the eu, saying the door is not open to being a member of the eu if catalonia does become independent. The economic success of this region underpinned by the euro in many ways. For now, it looks more like december negotiations, a new government, and will the door be open to greater autonomy for the catalan region . Guy tom, thank you very much indeed. Russias president , vladimir putin, is in new york today for the United Nations general assembly. He will meet with president barack obama. The first time the two have spoken face to face in more than a year. Ryan chilcote is here with me. Great opportunity for these guys to get together, but the subjects they have to talk about our varied and interesting. Probably syria front and center. Ryan thats what president putin wants to talk about. His whole agenda is that russia is an international player, russia has a role to play in syria. Vladimir putin wrote an editorial in the new york 2013 onn september 11, the same subject. Russia cooperating with the rest of the world in syria. That was the same editorial where he said that he had a growing trust in his personal and professional relationship with president obama, which i thought was interesting. After snowden, but before of course now we know for sure, that relationship has deteriorated. It became the whole argument about gay rights in sochi and for ukraine. Make no mistake. His goal is to try to reinject russia into the International Arena as a power broker in syria. He was on charlie rose, on 60 minutes talking about how russia would like to build a platform with the rest of the world for defeating Islamic State in syria. The russians have been talking to the iranians, the syrians, and the iraqis about coordinating action. The Russian Foreign minister met with the u. S. Secretary of state. Now the french have gotten in on the action. I think a real sense that the russians are acting behind the scenes and are going to use this speech and perhaps Everything Else they do in new york to try if not become the ringmaster, or master of ceremonies of what happens in syria, then play a huge role. Guy the french move, how significant is that . Unilateral, but likely to have impact on british policy and policy elsewhere. Ryan i think what were looking at is the endgame. , the refugeesis crisis, all the countries recognized something has to be done in syria. If you want to have a say, youve got to be acting militarily. President putin has his troops on the ground. The french strike for the first time against Islamic State in syria. , if weofficials saying want to be a power player, weve got to be a hitter. We are quickly moving towards that. Guy thank you very much indeed. What else are we watching . Let me give you a heads up on the data. Weve got an Interest Rate decision from indias central bank. The r. B. I. Expected to cut rates by a quarter of a point. Wednesday, gdp figures out of the u. K. Youre going to get some big revisions. Watch out for that one. Could have an interesting impact. Payrolls friday. It is the first friday of the month. We will see how that one fades into the market, the big number for the month. The other thing is, we have a Nasa Press Conference later on. I think nasas going to make a major announcement at some point today. Also, we are going to be hearing from labors new shadow chancellor. Hes going to be speaking today. We are to hear from anna edwards. Normally on the show, but shes down in brighton. Has Angela Merkel defriended Mark Zuckerberg . The german chancellors comments on racist Facebook Comments have gone public. Were going to get the full details on that story after the break. London, 7 16 in frankfurt. Breaking news coming out of shell and its proposition for alaska. Ryan chilcote is back. He is our guy. Ryan shell saying they are going to cease exploratory activity in the arctic, looking for oil between alaska and the russian far east. Saying that their position thus far has been worth 3 billion. They were committed to spend another 1. 1 billion. The unpredictable Regulatory Environment the u. S. Has in place has made it very difficult for them to work. They also talk about the high cost of working in the area. At oil prices today, working in the arctic doesnt necessarily make sense. It is perhaps a good reason to put a project off. Shell has had a difficult go in the arctic. Atjust get this now, looking the important part i think is the financial aspects of this. This is an interesting move from ben van burden, who we are going to hear from next week in london. We will get more from him on this. One of the oil majors saying they are going to cease exploratory work in the arctic, off the coast of alaska where shell has been active for several years. Guy thank you very much indeed. Let me tell you about some other stories. More evidence of the china slowdown. Industrial Companies Profit declined 8. 8 in august from a year earlier. Coal mining earnings plunged while oil and gas profits tumbled more than 7 . Catalonias Independence Movement has won a landmark vote in spring in spain. For a showdown that could see the richest region breakaway. The group was hoping there was a majority of cattle lands that wanted to leave. More than 160 heads of state are gathering in new york today for the 70th United Nations general assembly. Coordinating a response to the threat posed by isis will be high on the agenda. Vladimir putin and u. S. President barack obama will hold rare talks later today. Angela merkel has confronted facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg over racist content on the social media site. They were captured in exchange at the u. N. General assembly. Hans nichols has more on this story. What happened here . Hans the german president describing it as a table microphone. What the table microphone picked up was merkel asking a question to zuckerberg. Then you hear zuckerberg on this issue of what facebook is going to do about monitoring racist, xena phobic content. We hear zuckerbergs response pretty quickly on the tape. He said, we need to do some work. Then, theres the merkel followup. She basically asked the same question again. Zuckerberg can only say yes. I know theres a humorous aspect whenever private conversations are picked up on public microphones. Germany is taking this issue very seriously. They are trying to house, potentially find jobs for these incoming refugees. There have been some ugly and racist attacks on refugee housing. What the Justice Minister here did was right facebook and say they need to urgently review their policy. It gets to the difference between what Tech Companies think theyre allowed to do and what the german state sometimes demands of them. The Justice Minister said they need to urgently review. He said he had a meeting here in midseptember with facebook executives. Their point is, if facebook polices nude photos, why cant they police racist or xena phobic content . That is the line. They want more cooperation from big Tech Companies like facebook. Guy thank you very much indeed. Joining us now live from brighton, the head of the labour party conference, and my friend anna edwards. It is a bit like the catalonian story in some ways. Protest parties. Is labour party a protest party . What can we expect to hear from the shadow chancellor . Anna good morning to you, guy. Today is set to be dominated by the conversation around the economy. John mcdonough will be speaking around noon time today, a man whose talked in the past about wanting to overthrow capitalism. Over the weekend, we heard from him. He says hes not a definite denier. Expect some conversation about commitment to a budget surplus. What is he going to want to do to the bank of england . We understand he starting some kind of radical review of the institutions that manage the u. K. Economy. Does that mean questioning the independence of the bank of england . He wants to change the economic discourse in the u. K. Hes appointed a panel of experts. He wants them to change that conversation. He wants to put antiausterity back at the heart of things perhaps. What will we hear about the other policies that keep being mentioned . We want to get some clarity. What does he want to do on taxation . Whos going to pay more tax under a Labour Government if we got one . Quantitative easing. These are policies that have been talked a lot about. The broader question is around jeremy corbyn, the leader of the labour party, and how he can bring people together. This is a man who, from the back benches of the party, defied the party with so many times. Can he unite the party . We will talk a little bit about that and europe. We will be holding a special debate around europe. You can catch that 6 00 u. K. Time. That will be live streamed on our website. Guy looking forward to that. Thank you very much indeed. We are also going to be talking to the cbi later on, getting Industries Take on what exactly is happening within the labour party. As she says, weve got this debate later on this evening. Those are the people that will be on the panel. Interesting to see Peter Mandelson there. These are people that you could argue are maybe a little bit right of center. Get a take on whats happening in the markets now. Our next guest says he sees more dollar strength. Lets bring in Morgan Stanleys global head of fx strategy. The yen continues to strengthen. Quarter to date, were up by 1. 68 against the dollar. The market is running for safety. Do you continue to see that trade developing . Doi think theres a lot to with the interpretation of global liquidity. We had this morning quite interesting News Coverage on the Financial Times regarding saudi arabia withdrawing from outside investment to boost or support currency reserves. What we are seeing globally is that currency reserves are declining for the First Time Since early 2009. This decline seems to be on trend. There are several factors playing in here. One is the global imbalance has become less imbalanced, but implicitly, you generate less savings. Then you have the declining commodity price which seems to be linked to that process. That decline seems to be a smaller trend. So you have less income from there. The importance of that is, when you have declining reserves, that very often is linked to Central BanksBalance Sheets. They are starting to shrink. Secondly, commercial banks Balance Sheets shrinking too. You can draw some implications on the interpretation of global liquidity. Global liquidity is in retreat. You cannot be that positive on risk. That is where the yen comes in. Guy what are the implications of that for centralbank inking of tightening Central Banks thinking of tightening . This is quantitative tightening, you could say. How does that feed into what yellen is doing . I think thats going to slow her down. That is pretty much in line with the Morgan Stanley view. The fed is going to be very late in hiking. When they are starting to hike, it is going to be a process. We have the view that the u. S. Dollar is very strong. This is pretty much in support of each other. Simply because the increase we are currently seeing in the u. S. Dollar is a safe haven related flow. American investors which have been investing in emerging markets for so long are taking this liquidity back into u. S. Dollars. The u. S. Dollar is no longer cheap. It is expensive. Each time, when you have am expensive dollar which becomes more expensive, Risk Appetite isnt looking great. That is why the japanese yen is doing well. People are bu