Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20150930 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown September 30, 2015

It has been a torrid time in the market. Let me give you an update to my sense of where we have been over the last three months. , is goinghe last day to be a good one or are we going to finish on a dismal note . Well talk about that. Let me give you numbers, first of all. The s p 500s let me show you this column. Finishedwhere we have the downside on the order. On the currency adjusted basis, is nearly 10 . Over here in europe, 11 to the downside. If youre looking at the other market, volkswagen is down. A bit has done very well, of an outperform or someone argue. Down only a mere 9 this quarter. How are we going to open today . That is the big question that everybody is from to figure out. Let me show you, let me give you a heads up on where we see futures in the fair value copulation. Green on the screen for the dow, we have a fair value copulation there. We will see how the european markets ultimately open. We will give you a clue on that at 7 a. M. London time. When the futures open, just in pictures, let me show you what it looks like. You can see the massive down the draft that we saw midaugust that really damaged the equity market story. We will show you that in a minute. In the meantime, lets go to julia, how is asia performing . Good morning, a much brighter day here in asia than what we saw yesterday. This is the picture on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. We are seeing quite a lot of buying, not a great quarter at all to for asian stocks. They are on track to post their worst order in four years. 16 over the last three months. The shanghai composite has had its worst quarter since march 2008. Ae hang seng index is having worst day, and a worst quarter. In five years, things are looking a lot brighter. A buyer confidence, something and i go away. Some say they come back with a vengeance in october, and we are seeing buying on the last day. Consumer goods really leading the way through here in asia him and that is because we have seen a big pickup in automobile stocks across the region. China cutting the tax for those purchasing auto vehicles. You can see in japan, leading the way there by 18 . But we have also seen some big buying coming through from a lot of the chinese carmakers, which here hongtric cars kong doing incredible well up by almost 6 . And we have also seen a good pickup coming through from toyota, which is up by about 4. 5 in japan. And the motor company, the eighth share listed here, look at that. They are up 33 . Certainly, a lot more buying coming through in the region. And also, of course, a pickup in glencore the hang seng index of 1. 6 in the last afternoon. A big rally on the back of those games we saw, in the u. S. In the late trade yesterday. But certainly, a quarter of investors would like them to close the book on and see the back of the september quarter. Guy i think they probably would. Back in the year, they help it will deliver. Maybe we get that rally, juliet sally in hong kong. Standock that really does out in hong kong trading, and that is glencore. Shares are up 14 , tracking the london session yesterday. Let us talk about what will happen today, in the future for this business. Will kennedy joins me now, investors get face to face today. There we some sort of meeting on debt. What we know about what the company is saying to investors . This value that ec carried over to hong kong, it will be more of the same cutting from investors that everything is on track. Money from asset sales going quickly, and hopefully that will be enough of a message to see the rally continue. Seeaps more importantly, to the cost of insuring that come back down. Guy that is not normally what you would see, people are more worried about the myths and they are the longterm. Some big payments coming up on the debt side. Debts coming big is but liquidity as well, it three years out. What people are really worried about the shortterm, you mentioned the quarter, it is copper. Copper is now set for its fifth monthly decline come and ultimately, glencore is very leveraged. You know, that is going to be key for investors only so much glencore can do. Guy you think this scare will change the nature of glencore in the more medium and longterm . And change the way the company the kind of with way it develops strategies from here . Well it is interesting, isnt it . During the financial crisis, we saw a similar scale, to have the safety of public markets, now it is public. It is having a different but equally scary fight. What makes it next, we had this talk that is going very hard to see him in to be honest. I think they wanted to become a more stable company, do a better job of explaining exactly how the operations work. Guy why do you think it is unlikely to see the mass act up in some ways . ,ill the management owns 22 they are not going to do all the money themselves. It will still have to find a huge amount of money from somewhere else. It is not clear will come from. Guy do investors believe the model works . The idea was that the trading arm added to the Mining Operation that was critical. Will i think that probably still holds. But i will say two things. One, it was not much of ahead. It is very hard to change. The real thing i said earlier, it has been a very long in copper. Smart asader as ivan knows that. Guy he has been the smartest guy in the business, maybe or maybe not . History will judge that. Can we assume that the troubles that delays in berg is burg isncing glazen experiencing, is it indicative of other things that are happening . Will both of those are true. It is unique because it has more debt than anyone else. It is suffering from that. And it is unique because it combines the Trading House with this mining company. Across are saying wrists the commodities space, you saw the story earlier this week. Forced to spill itself into. And we are seeing a lot of stress and the oil angloamerican has had a shocking week. Which is been largely hidden. Two days ago, it was down 10 in one day. Guy thank you for getting up early and coming to see us. We are back as we continue to talk about the global commodity impact, has had such an as he was mentioning in the last quarter. We are not quite done with a quarter yet, but he still happening in the resume. What are we watching at 7 30 a. M. . The french budget, the french budget is out of that time. Are we going to get below 3 . That would make brussels and berlin happy on the budget deficit side of things. We understand that that could be the case 2017. Later on, at 8 55 u. K. Time, we get cpi time. Havet 9 30 u. K. Time, we technically not the blue book. It comes out later, some confusion surrounding this. But we are going to get some revision data for previous years, and terms of gdp which could upgrade the story. At 10 00. D cpi data willew york fed president speak, and janet will speak this evening. Bullard will james be addressing the policy conference at 8 p. M. U. K. Time. The market will be paying attention to that, as ever. Let us shift gears and talk cars again, this time not volkswagen. But suvs and tesla. They have not gone together. Telsla has finally delivered six of them. A big unveiling in california overnight. Lets get more on the model x. Caroline hyde is here. Middle of the night california time, we have six delivered . Caroline suddenly, we start to see the first one delivered. They were unveiled in california, were they have a big Factory Outlet there. Interestingly, this new model is aimed at people like you the family. And people like me, a female. Women by more than half of small suvs. You have the kids in the background, and if you happen to have 132,000, which is the base price, you can go 250 miles in this week with one single charge. Passengers, you can put your surfboard and skis. All of your children, if you do not have that many, meanwhile, 155 Miles Per Hour you can get to 60 Miles Per Hour in three seconds. Thing, how safe this thing is in accident. I like this, they are coming out on dieselgate. This is a great time to sell 80 cars. Issions you will not be breathing in. Air by thel grade vehicle. Caroline phenomenal, and it is beautiful to look at. A have these doors you will hear just the reason behind them. The reason they created these doors originally come up with her to solve the problem which is how you access the third row if you have child seats in the second row . Button. Press this the seats go forward. And i can step directly in. You can actually just stand right here, you can step into the card you want. You can put your child down in the child seat, it makes a huge difference in terms of back strain and comfort. It also looks cool. So, yeah. Caroline it looks cool. What is so interesting, you can the doors respond to the it if you are tightly squeezed in a parking spot, they still managed to uncover a themselves. Guy they need to deliver a few more. Caroline these are the founders series friends and family of elon musk anyone who is close to the company. He is inspected them. The next series is a signature series, you have to pay up 40,000 deposit to reserve them. 55,000 of to sell those models across the board. They are putting in production 55,000 this year, that was a slightly missed target. Ws to fit youro family. How many they can get off the ground this year guy it sounds a bit like elon musk. Caroline this car has this biggest single piece of glass on any card known to man. This is why they made it so complex. Interestingly, i understand that there are already 25,000 models on order. You have to wait 1218 months, but they need to start turning these cars out. Needlesthey need to do it swiftly and smoothly. Guy Caroline Hyde on tesla. Surly making headlines, what else . Coming up, why the bank of england governor thinks the markets should be worried about Climate Change. Mark Climate Change become the defining issue for financial stability, it may are to be too late. Mark speaking at lloyds yesterday, we will analyze his speech delivered last night only come back. Also coming up as well, the doubledigit recession that may have never happened. What could todays major decision tell us about a rate carney. M dr. We will talk gdp after the break, as well. Guy 7 17 in frankfurt. Let me tell you the stories we do know this morning. The stock markets are on track for their worst quarter since 2011. The old country world index is concernssince june 30, over china away on investor sentiment. The shanghai composite slumped 29 , the worst performance of any major index this quarter. Output industrial ultimately fell for the second straight month, the slump rate is concerning because it might have dropped back to a recession. Boj confirms that the web and marguerite we will happen tomorrow. Well talk about the event. And elon musk has handed over so suv in california, he did in the early hours. Depending on your point of view, tesla now has two all electric vehicles in production, it features double hinged doors and Energy Breaking and audio speakers. It also provides medical grade care in the cabin. Facingsurance is existing Climate Change policy. That was delivered by governor mark carney last night. At a speech at lloyds of london, he urged g20 nations do more to combat the Financial Risks of Climate Change. Mark there are three channels which, change can affect financial stability. Physical risks, the impact familiar to everyone in this room. The impacts today on insurance viability, and the valuable Financial Assets from climate and weather related events that damage property or disrupt trade. Thesecond liability risk, impacts that could arise tomorrow, parties who have suffered loss or damage from the ages fromek dam those they hold responsible. And finally, transition risks. The Financial Risks that could result from this very process of adjustment to a lower carbon economy. Guy speaking last night around the corner at lloyds of london. Jeremy corbyn used his first conference beach to call for more Government Spending and the end of austerity. He also denounced former labor minister tony blairs invasion of iraq. Programs. R weapons face veryy, we different threats from the cold war ended. I have asked our defense secretary to lead a debate and review about how we deliver that strong modern protection for the people of britain. But theres one thing i want to make my own position on absolute there, and i believe i have a mandate from a election on it. I do not believe that 100 billion pounds spent on the new generation of Nuclear Weapons to him about a quarter of our Defense Budget is the right way forward. [applause] britain it believe that our country, i believe that our country should honor our obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty and take the lead in making progress towards international disarmament. Guy continuing the conversation, youre up to speed. In the next what you for hours, a slew of data, let us hope the Business Investment you will see smith and upgrades to previous years gdp numbers. Job rates ahead of the rate strategy, good morning. Let us start off with the upgrades to gdp. Jeremy corbyn talking about the end of austerity, they have evidence . Party had some revisions that take us to do thousand 13, some fairly meaningful one. Today, we hear whats happened since then, like the to the other revisions as you say. From the chancellors point of view, that points to the recovery being somewhat stronger than with priestly thought. And also suggests probably that the ability of the government to raise tax receipts Going Forward is enhanced, so it might will mean a Public Finance expectation for the years to come. A marked down a bit and subsequent forecast, so it is good news for the chancellor. Guy one of the things that has been central over the last few years is negative Monetary Policy remains loose while we see fiscal policy remaining relatively tight. If the economy is getting back on track, of course, you may not need to be so tight. Does that mean the Monetary Policy can be moving . David i think the implications are harder to assess, not least because they have long had their doubts th. \ if you look at inflation reports looking backwards, you see their view that gdp has been stronger than they were previously thing. This will come as a surprise to them, effectively, it is also reflecting an increase in supply capacity, the amount of slack that should not be seen a different light of the bank of england, all his people. And given the slightly more relevant forwardlooking things on the radar at the moment, this probably does not mean much for policy, i dont think. Guy what does it mean for policy at the moment . You have data out of the eurozone later on, inflation flat on his back. See janet yellen saying she is delaying rate rises. Where the market is in terms of pricing u. K. Interest rates, over the coming years, you can see they are a lot more worried than the mpc has thus far indicated in the rhetoric. Theres a lot of talk about the labor markets improving, some members voting. And yet the market is not pricing the first move until the end of next year, more than 12 months from now. A big divide that tells you some of these external worries and some signs as well in the domestic a slight loss of momentum on making the market very guy you look at that spread. Is the market going to come up . Or is the banquet to come down david that is the question. They do not move them around every five minutes as the markets do. It is not unusual to have a discrepancy between economic consensus and market indications. It is unusually wide at the moment. Well have to wait and see. The data, if we just restricted to the u. K. At the moment, there has to be an endorsement of the expectation. E inflation,the which is likely because the oil price. Infected in the wage price, and is yet to be seen. If there are bigger problems in the global economy, companies are much less likely to sponsor to higher inflation by pushing weight is up. So there are a lot of concerns at the moment, but the market has made its my death. Any sisi soccer data to justify where it is. If we see on going strength, we will have to see a bit earlier move. Guy the fed has made it very clear that they are watching asset prices, what is happening in markets. Todays the last in the quarter, which is seen the worst for equity markets since 2011. How is the potential . How does the relationship work . What it think of tells them, the individual quirky reasons of why that happened. It has to do with the wider commodity moves and everything else, the bottom line is that they have been heavy since april and may. Their off 25 , that is a huge drop in wealth and a huge drop in the value of obviously corporate, and there havefore it means they should inject more quantitative easings. But it will hit confidence, and will hit sentiment from it might hit investments because of evaluations of those companies. It is part of the whole matrix the bank has to look at. Guy thank you very much for getting up early. At ubs. Ith had dont mess with texas. In the Lone Star State, a county is suing volkswagen for raising pollution levels. This is setting another deadline. We would talk about the stateside struggles we come back. We will talk about the stateside struggles, when we come back. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Guy it is 6 30 in london, here are the stories you need to know this morning. The stock markets are on track for the worst quarters in 2011. The all country world infects is index all country world is down 11 . Sunkhe shanghai composite 29 , the worst performance of any major index this quarter. Glencore has rallied as much as 80 in hong kong trading this morning, getting back to a 7 jump in london yesterday. The company said they cannot withstand current conditions, and they will meet with that investors today. Output industrial ultimately fell for the second straight month. This is concerning, the couyntry might have dropped into recession since the premise or took office. His view was up tomorrow. Let get back to the top headlines, last day of the third quarter. And it is not been a good one. The worst since 2011. Lets get some facts and figures with airline hide. A phenomenally volatile and somewhat market value eradicating quarter it

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