Welcome to countdown. I am guy johnson. Friday, a little bit of a disappointment. We saw the payroll number come through significantly lower than the market was anticipating. The credibility of the fed beginning to be called into question. It was an interesting question in terms of the equity market positioning. To backes the fed have off of a rate rise this year . Story withe stock the s p 500 up by 1. 43 . The nasdaq was up 1. 74 . You may be thinking this is farming today. There is a certain agricultural theme running through our big stories. You heard what is happening with glencore. Glencore is on a roll this morning. If youre looking for a stock with volatility, this is it. It was up at one point over 40 . Bunch ofn for that, a companies that could potentially be interested in taking a stake in the agricultural unit. We will hear more from ryan in just a moment. Storyo have the cayenne s. Something of an agricultural theme running through that story. The glencore story is absolutely sensational. Is happeningt what with the asia markets as they price and what is happening friday with the payroll. Shery ahn is standing by with details. Shery a great start of the week for asian stocks today. All markets rising for a fourth consecutive session. The regional benchmark headed for its longest winning streak since last july. Data we so weak payroll and factory data fueling momentum. The u. S. Rising all across the board, helping stocks here and in asia. Gaining, thei highest level in two weeks. We are also seeing hong kong gaining 1. 7 . Mainland china still closed on golden week. We are seeing the hang seng getting 1. 7 . You mentioned glencore, that is surging due to the rally in metals we have seen overnight. Nd that is fueling the asx and we aren gaining, seeing sectors across australia rising across the board. Maintained its extended gains at about 45 a barrel. Crest miningnew gaining after that, and gold rallying 2 . Losing a little momentum today but lets take you through asian currencies. Has again toan the highest level in two weeks. May thought that the fed not be raising rates anytime soon. Analysts saying it is only because they have ample reserves. Strengthening 0. 7 . We are seeing the kiwi dollar and the Australian Dollar gaining after that data. Back to you. Guy shery ahn mentioning what is happening with the story surrounding glencore. The stock is on a tear this morning in hong kong. The surge comes amongst other things to amongst other things. Theyre talking to potential buyers for taking a stake in the agricultural business. Ryan chilcote is here. The stock is up 40 in hong kong. What is going on . Ryan Trading Volume is out of control. 7. 5 times the daily average over the last 20 days. Lets not forget that over the last 10 days, glencore has been a pretty actively traded stock. Two things happening. Interest in the agricultural glencores part of debt restructuring program. From 30 billion to 20 billion. They wanted to sell a stake in the agricultural unit and to citibank is one of the sellers. They said friday they think they might get a decent price, not even limiting that it could be possible they sell the entire unit. Since then we have learned, singapores wealth Fund Interested on friday. We learned that saudi arabia might also be interested. You have japanese trading houses and at least one Canadian Pension Fund. It looks like there is Robust Interest in that agricultural trading unit. That means you get a higher price the more bidders you have. The second thing is there is a fundamental to this story. Copper went up again today. It counts for about one third of glencores earnings. Guy for this to work, copper needs to go up again. Ryan all of last week we saw copper, zinc and lead all rising. That is part of the glencore story in general. That is helpful to the company, and we will just see where this goes. It or, you take a look at glencore stock in general, even up as much as it is today, it is still only recovering its losses over the last two weeks. It has been quite a roller coaster, and rough here in general. Guy there is the copper chart. I can show you on the terminal what is happening these of the the rally with glencore these vis the rally with glencore. We are not back there yet. It is a good recovery. Ryan it just tells you that people think the chinas commodities demand disruption story is a little bit overdone. Guy interesting to see the world bank downgrading chinese growth. Ryan will be back with more on the story. Lets get more corporate news. Lets go to Caroline Hyde. Caroline we are talking telecoms and an asset being disposed of by telling all telonal. They could be disposing of one third of their holdings in vimplecom. They have had a bit of a torrid ride and they say because of the erosion of the market value of vimplecom, they look to dispose of the minority position that they have. Buy never had the option to the company whole. Theretemple, assets vimpelcom assets have been challenging. A third of that is what they will be potential he earning by selling off these potentially selling off these chairs. Billione received 20 norwegian krone in dividends. The current valuation and ownership stake is it about that amount. We need to talk about this lack of transaction taking place with cayenne s. Lets turn to politics now. The busy weekend for politics. The u. K. s Ruling Conservative Party gathered this weekend for the annual conference, seem to protest outside the Convention Center against austerity to strike rules in the u. K. The subject of europe that looks once again to divide this party. Anna edwards is in manchester. It is possible that brexit is once again coming back to dominate the conservative party, a subject that cannot get away. Anna it looks as if the tories, if they wanted to come back and celebrate a victory in may, will be faced with divisions within the party surrounding the subject of europe. It is not on the official agenda, but there are more than 20 fringe events on the subject of europe this week. We have been promised a referendum by David Cameron i the end of 2017. By the end of 2017. We dont have any details with the timing. Top is semp a set launch its campaign this week to keep that story and peoples mines. David cameron said he is really nothing out, suggesting that could he even lead a campaign to leave the European Union . Hard to know if that is really has stance or whether that is part of his renegotiation tactics with brussels and others. We have clues from philip hand who said he hammond was confident that renegotiation should deliver. He used only 161 words to talk about the renegotiations with europe. Public, 45 want to stay and 38 want to leave. We have seen polls that said the opposite of that. Unlike rugby ambitions, it seems on the subject of europe it could all still be to play for. Guy we are not talking about rugby at all in this program. In fact, we are not talking about rugby ever again, adam. Again, anna. This that isout not on the agenda but creating tension. Anna you might remember back in may, just before the election, David Cameron gave an interview to the bbc where he let slip he would not want to be private us or for more than 10 years. That raised questions about who would take over after him or we might hand over to. This newspaper over the weekend reporting that 18 members of the party could consider standing against David Cameron when the time comes. The website for the tory faithful puts judge George Osborne right out in front. Conservative home put the business secretary in second place. He ruled himself out over the weekend. Boris johnson is set to speak your tomorrow. He is seen as the heineken candidate. Perhaps able to reach the electorate. He looks set to make another move. He could deliver a real coup for the conservative party. He looks likely to name lord adonis, and your Adonis Andrew adonis. It looks as if he will give up the labour whip, become a crossparty peer and take on an infrastructure role. Look for that announcement later. A really big figure under the new labour government. Been such aways good thing going into these leadership races in the past. I will be here speaking to john lonwigwith a little bit later on. Guy looking forward to it. At the conservative Party Conference up in manchester a very big week. Lots of Central Banks taking the limelight. Watch out for the big part of the u. S. Economy. We will be paying a lot of attention to that. Tuesday we get the decision from the rba and australia. Interesting. Where is the story, vis a vis china . Wednesday, the bank of england thursday. A packed week in terms of Central Banks. We will bring you all of that live with plenty of analysis. Countdown . Ing up on strong words from volkswagens incoming chairman. We will analyze what is next for this carmaker. Guy 6 17 in london. Let me tell you the stories you need to know. Glencore shares jumped the most on record in hong kong overnight. After reports that the commodities trading giant is talking to potential bait buyers for a stake in the agricultural business. Are various Companies Interested in buying a minority spake in the stake in the part of the business worth as much as 10. 5 billion. After ae comes declining in Global Equity markets. Bid had been rejected by k s as too low. Run materials are down 16 from its peak this time in may. Remain shut along of the riviera with the the joe thomas 20 meters of rain in cannes leaving many homes without lectures at a. Without electricity. Volkswagens incoming chairman says the scandal could pose an existing threatening crisis for the company. I hear that the german translation makes it sound worse than that. Ours talk to hans nichols, international correspondent. Dismal words from the incoming chairman. Hans i imagine that they sound even worse in french. That is what he is getting at. An x essential crisis exis stential crisis. In 2008, they became aware that there new engines would not pass regulatory muster. At that point, project engineers made a determination that they could have an easier regulatory fix, which is to say software. That is the direction they took. So many cars have been if acted and that is where we are at over the weekend have been affected, that is where we are. At over the weekend. The incoming chairman numerate it a number of concerns. He did not say, he is pretty clear, they will not sell any additional brands. So bugatti when i be on the table. He is concerned so bugatti wont be on the table. He is concerned about their cash. Their 25 billion euros cash on hand, but there is a note out that this could cost potentially 78 billion. In the past few weeks, 30 billion has been shaved off their market value. 40 . This is getting to the point where chancellor merkel has finally weighed in, and she insisted there would not be a spillover effect. She said, i believe the reputation of german industry has not been so shaken that we will not continue to be seen as a Good Business location. One final note on all of the reporting, it is continental, the car company supplier. They may have made the parts that use this software, which means if you have to have a fix that requires no parts, those parts could come from continental. Guy we will be back with hans a little bit later in berlin. I want to show you what is happening with the glencore story. A couple minutes ago, the stock was up 72 in hong kong. We have since come off just a little bit as you can see. ,e are fading back a little bit up 72 in the mid 50s, 55 is where we are trading now. The roller coaster continues. I think you put your hands in the air and you have no idea where this will go. It is completely all over the place. Lets continue with the agricultural theme. Farming today is what youre actually watching. This isnt countdown. Running instabilities potash. In someve that corporate deals as well. Lets victor Caroline Hyde for more details on this one. Caroline we are talking root system strength. We are talking crop nutrients and the market has been shaken along with the commodity slide that we have seen recently. They are not as comfortable splashing cash so down goes potash prices. For k s,n offer made the germanbased company. The number one supplier for potash. It has been withdrawn. Taken off the table because this is like Market Conditions more than the key issue. Along with the lack of engagement with k ss on management as well. They rejected this in july out of hand feeling it was too small. 7. 8 5 billion euros was a 40 premium. Shares are still higher than when we saw before the deal announced. This is a spike we got before we understood that the potash was buying up assets. Also a new mining project that they have in canada. They were going to gain more capacity and potash but just at the time that potash prices were starting on their deterioration. Commodity prices were starting to dig lower. We are still up six to 8 from before the deal was announced but we will see the shares hit today. Crucially, Deutsche Bank said this deal made sense. Their secondbiggest shareholder. We will have a look at why the investors are going to be disappointed this morning. Deutsche bank, number two after emeritus has been over 3. 5 of k s. They did not announce the lower Commodity Prices that would have been recognized in a share price. Saying now we will see an erosion in the share price. The benefit was that they would be combined, but now they will be factored into the k s stock price. Now we see rival music, the biggest Potash Company in the u. S. Cutting back production. We can now see ipos being talked of being suspended. Pulling back on how many shares they are selling. We see the market volatility starting to hit shares and indeed m a. Guy busy morning, plenty going on. Lets carry on the conversation. Chris watling is the chief Market Strategist. He is here for the next hour. Number, deals not being done. It is a difficult environment to navigate. Guest you can add lots of things to that as well. Think it is a difficult environment for the fed. An environment if you look at implied inflation numbers, they should not be rising at all. They should be thinking about going the other way. It is quite quite clear to meet that the world cannot take fred tightening fed tightening. Guy so if you have money invested, what would your advice be . Guest until the fed starts changing its tune, i would stop being cautious. We have the highyield Corporate Bond stuff, but have concentrated more in solvent debt and equities. I would be less inclined toward the cat and western equities and more toward safety. There are times and markets when you can try not to be too clever. Mind,the fed changes its one should try not to be too clever. Guy we will talk about when the fed may or may not change its mind. Chris weidman stays with us. When we come back, google talking most if we will be talking most influential. Guy 6 30 in london. Let me tell you about the stories you need to know about this morning. Adjust the most on record this morning. I miss reports that are talking to potential buyers amidst for the agriculture business. A Canadian Pension Fund is among those interested in buying a Minority Stake in the agribusiness. It could be worth as much as 10. 5 billion. Designated chairman has warned that the emission a nexuscould pose exnsion an x istential crisis for the company. Company potash has withdrawn its 7. 5 billion euro bid for germanys k s. Potashs cash offer had been rejected back in july. Droppeden prices have while the bloomberg Commodity Index of Raw Materials is down from the peak back in may. Portugal has effectively reelected the centerright coalition. Victory late last night in the first general election since it exited its Bailout Program. Austerity measures were at the heart of the manifesto. Us through the numbers. Give us a sense of how he managed to do this given what we have seen . Basically, i think he was able to play the card of stability. The Bailout Program in contrast greece has had to go through a few bailouts. The economy has been effectively recovering, and i think that has played a role. Some voters were convinced by that. The opposition party, in contrast, were not able to capitalize on these fears of huge tax increases and spending cuts. Guy we will leave it there. It looks like we are getting a few glitches on the video line. We will come back later on. The view from lisbon on the election. Did not actually get it majority. It will be interesting to see how it works its way out. This friday, disappointing jobs numbers kill a 2015 fed rate hike. Bloombergs guests remain divided. Here is some of the reaction we got. This data does show the economy week. Comprehensively week. Week job creation, week revision. Good evidence that the economy has been slowing. Participation rate back to 1977 levels. As long as job growth is in excess of 70,000 per month even if the economy slows to a 2 growth rate. That is growth, in excess of underlying trends. It is still growing above potential and will still bring the Unemployment Rate down. Were almost at the sweet spot. The 2 not that far off inflation target if you take out energy. If you look how far off we are of the fed targets we are not that far off. It still does not justify zero interest rates. Now is not the time to look for the fed to be aggressively raising rates. This report had a big effect on killing off the chance they would raise rates this year. Certainly take october out of question. You can take october of the table. Its going to make it more difficult for them to move. I dont think it takes december off the table. A lot more comfortable today with my march 2016 call. Mark reinforces a question that has been in the back of my mind if they missed the window. Think they did miss the window. The window was probably september. I think it was earlier in the year. May be 1. 5 years ago when they sho