Welcome to the program, everybody. This is countdown live from bloomberg headquarters here in london. It is 6 00 here in london. Let us bring you up to speed. We have data out of china, just to tell you that it has not moved the market all that much. We saw a bit of a bounce in the shenzhen composite, the shanghai not moving that far. Estimates,line with industrials up. That is the macro picture. Keep an eye on a micro level, if you like. It is not very micro, but what could be the biggest brewing deal in history. I have a chart here on the sab miller share price, what a wild ride it has been on during the summer. We saw talk of the potential deal them. Inbev has a deadline to move the number of times. The latest is today, and we have had news over the last 24 hours suggesting that they might get closer to that perhaps removing the regulatory hurdles on the u. S. Business. We will have more from Ryan Chilcote through the program. We are getting numbers from carlsberg. We are of course looking here at the worlds fourth biggest brewer. Looking at russia, a challenge to carlsberg struggling offset the cost cuts. The headline number is a clear beat. We are coming in with Third Quarter items at 3. 4 7 billion kroner versus an estimate of 3. 11 billion kroner. Alsois the beat of sales, up 18. 3 billion danish krone are versus 17. 9 billion. We are seeing though that fouryear organic profits are lower than previously seen. But carlsberg seeing organic singleoperating by a digit percentages. Earnings are a beat, couple of warnings there. But it is reaching its full fouryear forecast. It issued a profit warning in the last quarter. Sharen the earnings, prices of about 13 this year. You will see how it performs in the open. Anna more news breaking, Deutsche Bank giving up numbers. It seems profits plunged 17 . The cost of a Software Project that went wrong. We knew about that, though. They told us they were booking euro around the failed Software Project. He told us that last month. We get confirmation of that today in the numbers. Forecast2015 profit for the second time on october 28. We get more details on the numbers, though. And more of the context, where does this leave the company . Will they take any action against the companies that provided the software, what alternative do they have . How did that didnt there ambitions dent there ambitions . We will talk to the ceo, later on during countdown, and around 40 minutes time i believe. We mentioned the chinese data that was out. We had a mixed day, around half an hour ago. Shery ahn. O sherri shery quite a mixed picture, investors quite cautious ahead of that flurry of data out of china. We saw Industrial Production growing by 5. 6 in october, missing estimates for third month. We now see the shanghai composite losing half a percent, declining for the second consecutive day. Retail a beating estimates, growing 11 year on year. The shopping extravaganza in china in the form of a singles day. Hand saying moving the hand saying moving the hang seng index moving. But it is now trading at a highest, a close of the highest level since august. Also reversing earlier losses that we saw in the morning in early trade today. Finishing unchanged, of course after declining after four session. That is back to 100, a gained a half of a percent there. Confidence consumer survey. Saythey are easing again to the least in october. We saw a number growing only 3. 9 . Aussieant to take at the dollar, china is the largest trading partner. The industrial output data and the Regional Sales data have not really impacted the currency much there. It gained before the data was out. It also was up 8 10. Yen alsoese strengthening today. Gaining 2 10 of a percent there. And we are hearing from Macro Currency Group saying that the strengthening, given the rising volatility. That has outpaced the dollar. Some of the movers i want to take you through today. Trading at a record low, look at that. A plunge of 7 . It could drop as much as 50 year on year. RecordThird Quarter profits, gaining only 2 there today. Hon hai losing 1. 3 . October sales rose more than 7 . Im looking at them because they are an apple supplier. Isse saidt suiteu orders had weekend. Akend. Anna lets get more detail on china. It match the weakest gain since the global credit crisis. Accelerated, and this underscores the gradual shift in the economy towards greater reliance on computer spending. Today is also singles day in china, an online shop up on which has seen alibaba make 5 billion in sales during the first 90 minutes. Let us get a look at the data with our beijing bureau chief. Talk us through the production myth, how significant is that number now . Data today was largely in line with expectations. Industrial production is a very important number, along with success and investment is at its lowest since 2000. It really confirms what we thought we knew about the chinese economy. Drivers, therowth thing that is interesting here is what is absent. The numbers are largely in line with what they were in the previous quarter. Of course, during that time, the government has made a lot of effort to stimulate the economy cutting Interest Rates, blowing the reserve requirement. So todays data being smooth and steady, in line with expectations, it would suggest those efforts to stimulant the economy have not kicked in yet or are not working. And that may open the door for more stimulus later on early next year. Anna this comes at a time when you said that the chinese authorities are try to rebalance the story away from industrial more towards retail. Update us on the retail picture. The retail sales largely in line with estimates, again, confirming what we know that this is an economy that is more on the back of consumers. Is exactly how the government wants it. We do anticipate more stimulus efforts to boost loan growth in the coming months. What would suggest putting even more emphasis on consumers getting spending, getting companies to spend. We only had to grow. Anna net, thank you very much. Our beijing bureau chief, and speaking of retail sales growing, let us turn to the topic of single day. Alibabas mission control. That is what they call it. Good morning to you. Sales have artie surpassed last year have already surpassed last year. How will the sales phenomenon that a single day go this year . Reporter it absolutely has been a phenomenon. We are in the nerve center, if you want to call it that. All morning, we have been kicked out theyre bringing in a bunch of the vips around the country. We are outside the water cube, if you remember that from the beijing olympics. Beyond that, the birds nest the iconic stadium. Alibaba brought it here to push him the message that this is the new economy. And boy, have a numbers been really quite staggering. 9. 3 billione have u. S. Dollars we surpassed that before we even hit the halfway mark today. Morning into the 24 hour shopping extravaganza, alibaba surpassing totally amount of goods sold online. We have a long ways to go. Some economists and analysts in the space expect it could go as high as 12 billion u. S. Dollars over this 24 hour period. Jack ma is probably smiling. And the consumers around the world will be smiling as they get their presents, or maybe not. This is a big logistics marathon, if you will. I have some numbers. 1. 7 million deliveryman are out and about in china. 200,000vehicles and airplanes are being used. I think this is the start of something big. What do younk think . Think we need james bond to help. I say this because i know there is celebrity there. A lot is being made of the significance of moving this event to beijing, taking a close to the seat of government. Reporter that is right. Let us face it, alibaba is a private enterprise. They came from the province down in the south of shanghai, coastal and very entrepreneurial. A big company. It is not a big stateowned into. But it is a National Champion. What jack ma has done is bringing it to beijing, really the center of power. And representing china, but he has done it quite intelligently. Because this is their key rivals home base. He is taking it to jd. Com and taking it to the Media Capital of china. I am here. All of the other media, this is where they are getting the big attention. And at least in the first 12 hours, now 14, it seems to have paid off. Numbers are really quite staggering. They sold a billion dollars worth of goods in the first eight minutes. 5 billion in the first 18 minutes. Always halfway through the day on last years total. Anna what do you do if you are not single . You buyers of the gift anyway . Emily chang will sit down a to hearabas jack m just how much the day means to him. And how the share price is not as pretty as it has been over the past year. Here that conversation at 2 30 p. M. London time. Let us consider the chinese . Broadly. Osullivan is here and he joins us now, good morning to you. Of course, china cannot be far from your thoughts as we watch what happened over the summer with a roller coaster the Central Banks of the world were working out how weak the growth story would get. Theyre trying to reinvent themselves in the retail mold. How worried are you of this point . Jack ma phenomenon shows what is driving chinese society. The search of lifestyle and consumer behavior, we publish the Credit Suisse report every year. And of the 6 billion adults in the world, we know about 109 million chinese would classify as middle class. Were not there 10 years ago. Anna that is the gross story. Michael they have average 150 thousandto dollars, higher than many european countries. And they are driving all of these Consumer Trends. I think the picture in china to an outsider is quite complex, if you look at the manufacturing side, it is bleak. A lot of these companies have oversupply. We are seeing profits and recession in china, margins are beginning to contract quite badly. And i find that looking at china and talking to people, they have very strong views on china. Some believe that the 7 growth target, others are more bearish when they look at china. They see spain, ireland, maybe seven or eight years ago. And it may someday turn bad. But i think that what you just towed, there is a transition a what i think is a consumerled economy. That seems to be pretty noisy. Anna it is noisy. Is then there preowned of them putting them in the middleclass growth story. Talking about their asian beer market this morning, saying that growth has slowed considerably. And that is chinaled. Even some brands that could cast themselves as middle class struggle. Michael dont forget the carlsberg was hit by russia. One of the areas where they have been hurt is all of these emerging markets, focusing on the western brand companies. Last year, european ones were hit by russia. And a lot of them have come off quite sharply on what is happening in china. I think the Consumer Trend in china will continue. I think we will continue to digest quite weak headline metho manufacturing growth next year. Anna is the data keeping up with a change . Some optimists, you might like to call them on the story, if the growth is not reflected in the numbers, maybe theres a chance that the growth is in places but it is not being picked up in the oldfashioned surveys. Does that hold water with you . Michael to answer your question, i think the data is not keeping up to date in the sense that a lot of people question the quality of the data. First of all, and the other sources of data you could say the individual companys share may be a better indicator. Few people really believe in the headline gdp numbers. They are a way of parsing the whole company. I think policy is important. What we have seen last three months, the chinese authorities have added individual and quite rules, they have not done it out right stimulus. Maybe taking a long view in a tactical view. Anna Michael Osullivan from Credit Suisse. We will get u. K. Unemployment numbers at 9 30 london time. We will get bank of englands inflation report, could give us any clues about a rate rise . 45, European Union and African Leaders begin a summit on the migrant crisis. We will also watch governor mark carney speak at 9 00 u. K. Time. That is followed by mario draghi from the ecb, speaking at 1 15 london time. Plenty on the central bank watcher calendar. We would take a short break. Up next, portugals government is toppled six weeks after the election. Lisbon,ive in looking at how this could topple the bond market. When we come back. Anna welcome back. Time in london is 21 minutes past 6 00. Here are the stories you need to know. Closed whenever an agreement to of the jointr venture for about 12 billion. That is according to a person familiar with the discussion. The deal would lift one major obstacle for inbev. Takeover,6 billion that is ahead of the 5 00 p. M. Deadline for the agreement. Lufthansa has lost a court bid to end the strike. Forcing the airline to cancel nearly 1000 flights today. Union callsn crew for three more days of strikes through friday, saying it was considering lengthening the walkout. 100,000 customers will be affected today. Portugals Prime Minister is been forced froom power, less than six months after the election. The socialist formed a majority to reject his plan. The socialist leader antonio back someges to roll of the austerity measures. Let us get more on that. Joining us now from lisbon, good to have you on the program. On the vote yesterday, how would it actually take to get a new government in place . I understand a lot of power is in the president s hand . Reporter that is right. There is no set timing in the constitution for this part of the process. The president gets to set the timing. He does have wide discretion on what happens next. And he does have to meet each of the parties before announcing a decision. Like you said, the socialists say they can form a minority government. The president cannot he cannot appoint a socialist p. M. Or he could allow the caretaker capacity for longer. He cannot find the Prime Minister elsewhere, but one thing to keep in mind, no early elections can be held until they may or june of next. He is a deal with the parliament as is to find a solution. Anna i understand the socialists would have a smaller coalition. How stable might as socialist government actually be . And what are the policy changes that this potential change in leadership has talked about being . Reporter they dont have a coalition, the socialists. There the secondbiggest party, but what they would have is a minority government. They have an even smaller minority than the coalition they just ousted. But they claim that three other leftwing parties would support them in important votes in parliament. In terms of policy changes, they want to narrow the budget deficit slightly more slowly than the coalition did. So that is the austerity measure, and a big question is whether the leftwing parties would back then, would they have to impose more fiscal tightening then they would like to . So will this be, you know, sustainable over the full mandate the full four years . That is the question. They claim so. But we have to see how some of t is. Upport is gr usa michael sullivan, let continue the discussion. I have a chart that shows the 10year yield, the measure of nervousness around the portuguese government story. We are not really high up there, are we . We have a 10year yield around 2. 7 back in the heady days of 2012. We are talking to be more like 17 . Michael i see a little blip in june when you were worried about greece. There are still tensions between the greek government and the people formerly known as a troika. It is not clear if we have a socialist government, that will be important for the banks and the business community. As regards austerity, i think that some of the papers and that peopleis clear andhe head of the eu except maybe went too far with austerity. The implication was too fast and too hard. Anna on the left in europe . Michael i think they will read what is happening to portugal, with regard there is a possibility you get a similar situation in spain. I think you have status quo in spain once we get through the elections. And it seems that the rise of anna michael stays with us. Up next, we get the business numbers after the break. Stay with us. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Welcome back. It is 6 30 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Industrial output slowed in october to match the weakest gain since the global credit crisis, but retail sales rise more than economists thought. It shows a greater reliance on consumer spending, as slow growth engines folder. Close to announcing an agreement to buy the sab miller portion, for about 12 billion. That is a warning to a person familiar. One of the major obstacles for v, that is ahead of the deadline today for an agreement. The worlds fourthlargest brewer, says it will cut jobs to reduce costs by 2018. About 1300 employees have been notified, and they will cut staff by 15 . Were just getting breaking news from germany. Let us get the details on e. On. Looking at the biggest utility company, we are looking at net income that is coming in at a miss. Versus 995 andos estimates. The operating environment remains very difficult. It is a very challenging time for german utilities with a shift toward renewables in germany. Thes hard for companies, share price actually declined about 35 this year. It is one of the worst performers on germanys dax index. Coming in at a miss, it is confirming its fouryear outlook. And the timetable for transformation, e. On also forecast, that headline number has come in as a miss. Back to you. Anna sticking with the german story, we have numbers from the maker of percel. Giving us an update on that is cuttingenkel their fouryear organic sales growth from 5 down to 3 . Still seeing fouryear adjusted numbers at about 16 . Theyre changing the forecast, but not others. The organic sales growth is bringing back down. This is heavily influenced by the china and emerging Growth Market stories. We heard about a costcutting plan, th