First of all, i will show you what has been going on with oil. This is the story. What does this signal about the Global Economy . We down stopped the level, but are very close to it. The sense of the market is, this is a done deal. This was a meeting that took place before the last payroll data. It seems to secure the idea in the market that we are pretty much there for with the december hike. Not much of a move in the qs in the u. S. We will talk about the spread in germany. We will speak to jim mccarthy has the Company Releases its latest earnings. Will talk to the cfo. What is happening with china. What is going on with the german economy. S there a fallout story minutes from the october meeting. That showed a rate hike would be considered at the next meeting. We break down the unusually direct signal from washington. Minutes confirm the market that fed officials will be have to talked out of a december move, rather than talked into it. The minutes show they wanted to send a signal that a rate increase is possible provided that unanticipated shocks do not impact the economic outlook. There are three camps. Conditions for a move had already been met. Most participants estimated their criteria could be met in december. Some felt the data would show a rate increase was oriented, but that was three weeks ago before the strong october payroll report. Of feday, a host officials said they are looking forward to a december move. It will be appropriate to raise rates. Argued, the economy can handle a small move. Bill dudley said, a vote for higher rates is good news. That is a good thing, not a bad thing. It is a sign the economy is returning to health and the Federal Reserve is getting closer to sustaining our move. The of session about when the fed is raising rates. Staff presented evidence of a neutral rate that will encourage maximum job growth. It might be much lower than the past. A very different cycle this time around. Lets find out how asia has been trading. Reporter good morning, guy. Thoserkets in asia liked information from the october fed meeting. The bank of japan policy decision today. The Monetary Policy, i should say, unchanged. Also japan comes through with a surprise trade surplus. Positive news on that front of lifting japanese equities. Three of has a strong session 1 . Ing higher than 1 3 of banks ins from the hong kong. It was australia that took the cake today. Rally coming big from australian equities today. Australia closed over one hour ago. Will it be paying out a dividend in the wake of the fallout of this mine disaster in brazil . It says it will not risk its a Balance Sheet to do so. Also in the region, when macau said it will delay its latest casino. Pretty unchanged in hong kong. Is biggest news in taiwan the broader index. This gain in the Malaysian Ringgit shows that we are seeing Risk Appetite back and this region. It is rising the most in one theh up by 1. 4 against dollar. Guy thank you very much. Lets go to tokyo, where we have same as the Monetary Policy unchanged despite the fact we are back in two a recession. Said theal Bank Japanese economy is continuing to recover moderately. Scheider joins us now. Are they waiting to get the fed out of the way before they take action at the boj . Y they are discounting some of the data we saw on monday that indicated japan was in a recession in the third quarter, given the Second Quarter was also contraction. There has are saying been pick up in the Fourth Quarter. Even though there was weakness in the economy, they are saying, lets wait and see. The governor said before that the inflation price trend was improving. They want to give it more time, i think. We will hear from governor crowder within the hour. It will be interesting to see what clues he gives us. Guy looking through the recent given that japan is back into a recession, when you look at what they are paying attention to, what are they not paying attention to . How is the data likely to evolve . Price trendflation has been something they have had their eye closely on. Governor kuroda has said it is improving. Thats will be one of the points they will look at. One of the concerns has been about business spending. Businesses investing in the economy, both in terms of Capital Investment and in wages. Those were week in the third those where weak in the third quarter. They will be looking at Fourth Quarter data to see if that improves. I think economists are split. Half of the economists in our theyy said they expect dont expect it in the foreseeable future. They are waiting to see what the boj will do as well. Keenly are anticipating to see what will come out. Thank you very much, indeed. On. Et ecb accounts later itll be interesting to see what is going on in that central bank as well. Chief joined by the european economist. Jamie. Tart with you, we have had the boj doing nothing, maybe waiting for the fed. Tghhe fed has a signaled that te december meeting is on the books. Members were willing to liberate in december. Now we have informal reports, so nothing has changed. The bank of japan is interesting. They are in recession. You are much more likely to find yourself in recession. Is it a big deal . Probably not. The fact is, inflation will pick up slowly in japan. That is due to the effect of oil. Inflation is still below target. Guy do you agree with that . Will he fed have to be talked out of it . That is a good way of putting it. The measures he is likely looking at is not headline inflation. Excluding food, which is not current at all. It does exclude food and fuel prices. Trajectories are upwards. The ecb is going to and he will have to follow suit. He will have to allow it to fall and perhaps, push it even lower. Guy the boj will perhaps go big. The spread is widening. Some of the market is already priced in. We underestimating how big that spread widening will be . It depends on the trajectory of the rate hiking the fed puts in place. The fundamentals beneath it suggest that the widening could be why do. The fundamentals are the u. S. Economy uniquely. There is no new normal for the u. S. Economy. The yield environment would have likely expected the financial prices even earlier than that. There is nothing to see here. That is unique to the u. S. Muchlower price rates and lower yields. Guy the u. S. Could be back in recession within two years. Of course it could be. Guy when we look at what is happening with the fed, the letsof the rates now assume december is a done deal. Maybe we need to start lessening regarding theons rate hike and the gaps. What should our expectations be . We have do a to december to find out what they will do. The feeling is, the rate will be low in the u. S. Demographic effects are still pushing down. The u. S. Has more leverage than it did in the precrisis decade. Market istually, the a little bit too low. Rates will go up eventually. On the showed side, the do it. Ot they may go under that. 23they do that, the next years are up. You are creating and other Financial Market potential crisis down the line. It is very similar to the one that happened in 2008. Guy you dont want to be short into a bear market early. Bothu want to be riding sides of that. You get all of the asset prices, equity prices, all of it. We saw it before. The overextension of houses, of banks. Guy how long does that last . Two or three years. And after that, we have another problem. The reason they are able to go under is because inflation will be flattened. Exporting deflation around the world. If that leads the fed into an era, we will unlock the same processes we saw. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Our chief Bloomberg Intelligence will stay with us. We have plenty to discuss ahead. Lets talk about your day ahead. The accounts of the ecbs latest policy meeting. There is no such thing as too much fed speak the fed. Speaks on fischer takes the stage later tonight. 5000 rounds were fired in the north of paris yesterday. We dont know if of the ring leader was amongst the dead. Coming up next, here on countdown. Guy it is 6 18 in london. Minutes from the fed october meeting confirmed that the conditions for a rate hike have been met, or likely will be met, by december. A rate increase is possible in the absence of any unanticipated shocks. Itsbank of japan has kept Monetary Policy unchanged, despite its economy sifting back into recession. The japanese recon a may continues to recover the japanese economy continues to recover moderately. Sources say advanced effect for pfizer to buy allergan. Talk about the ongoing terrorist situation in paris. A jet with polish tourists on emergencymade an landing in bulgaria due to the suspicion of a bomb being on board. The french president told a meeting of french mayors that he is forming a grand coalition to fight the terrorists. Gang was suggested the preparing for another attack. Hans has returned to the french capital. What have we learned from the authorities overnight . Hans we learned the extent of that police operation. What paris is waking up to is a only corporal run six can answer. Corporal forensics can ans wer. Was one of those killed the mastermind of the french attacks . They dont know how many bodies they actually recovered. The scene was so bloody. They eventually ended up arresting eight individuals. One thing that is clear is this terrorist cell was prepared for additional attacks. Was new terror cell neutralized and everything is leading us to believe, considering their weapons stockpile, their organization, and their commitment, that this team would have been able to carry out other attacks. Washington post is killed inthat he was the raids yesterday. We still dont know the saleh. Outs of a Security Service on alert in paris. There have been over 414 raids. 60 people have been arrested. The cityy much is returning to normal. I saw a child walking today care with his mother. It is still very much eight city on edge and in part because we authoritiesnor are saying, whether the alleged suspects have all been captured. Story isin tracks evolving in france. On one hand, we have the terrorist story. Syrianother, we have the refugee crisis. How is the latter being affected by the former . Hans well, we heard from Francois Hollande that they will except 30,000 refugees. Saysberg has a poll that 52 of americans dont want to accept the 10,000 refugees obama has pledged to accept. There will be a meeting in brussels tomorrow. We have heard from the polish side and this is a usedwest split. Some of the newer members are concerned about accepting these refugees. Guy thank you very much, hans. Meanwhile, russia has increasing confidence that a deal can be reached with the u. S. For a coordinated fight. Vladimir pugin says he sees greater cooperation across several fronts. We never turned our back on them. If our partners decided now is the time to change relations, we would only welcome that. I got the impression that on a technical level, there is a real interest in resume in working with us on a lot of different issues, from the economic and political, to security. Guy is this a complete change in the relationship . It is the beginning of a thaw. We cant go so far to say that the thaw is anywhere from complete. The russian president was saying, things are starting to look a little better. We see that when we look at the market. 4 . Ks are up one of the benchmark indexes is up 30 this year. You look at bond yields and earlier this month, they fell below 10 . They dropped to just around 9. 5 . Ed belowyear dropp 10 . Part of it is this political component. There are sanctions that have been imposed against russia because of ukraine. The thinking is, if russia cooperates with the west on isis in syria, you could see those sanctions eased. Idle think anybody expects them to be dropped. They will rally pretty hard. The other component to this, and i think it is the larger component, is equities and bonds have been underpriced recently. There is a lot of risk priced in there and there is a lot of bad priced in. Economy we are starting to see signs that the economy might turn around. The russian economy minister said he thinks the russian economy will contract by no more than 3. 7 . It isounds bad, but better than contracting 4. 1 , like it did last quarter, or 4. 6 , like it did in the first quarter. Maybe things are starting to come together for the russian market. Guy we will talk about oil a little later in the program. It is interesting. Believesius said he the change is sincere. We need to talk about oil. Wti are the implications of dropping below 40 . We are living in uncertain economic times. I know many people who saw a good portion of their hardearned wealth lost in the economic downturn. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Guy 6 30 in london. These are the stories you need to know. French musket is sick information found at the scene of yesterdays morning raonic suggest that the cure again that the terror gang was preparing another attack. Rounds. Ound the 5000 police found 5000 rounds. Say they do not know if you was killed. Some report they suggest he was. Minutes from the Federal Reserves meeting revealed that most possibly the conditions for a rate hike have been met or are likely to be met by december. That was before the strong jobs number we got it a rate increase is possible. As predicted, the bank of japan has kept Monetary Policy unchanged. This is a bank says its record bank easing measures have gone into effect and the japanese economy it continues to recover. Jeff japan posted its third ever surplus in months. Square raised with shares offered at nine dollars each. It was a similar story for match group. That prices at the lower end of the range. The two Companies Make their debut in new york later today. Bloomberg forces say pfizer is in talks to buy elegant to buy allergan. Lets get details from nejra cehic. We could see an agreement as early as monday here it monday. As 3kes botox for as much we wouldhe very be talking about pharmas biggest deal ever. Also the biggest deal in and it in any industry this year. Deals already surpassing last years record of 220 billion. What pfizer has to gain is it would allow it to strengthen its brandname business. It could help it split the business into two. This is key, it would allow it to relocate outside of the u. S. For tax purposes. This is a process known as capital and version. Capital and version. The treasury in a letter this week basically said it is reviewing ways to address overseas acquisitions and plans to issue guidance later. The u. S. Treasury does not have the power to block an inversion. That could have applications because we could see pfizer not wanting to offer so high a price, or it may want to pull out altogether. At inhe treasury looked version year, we did see a handful of deals impacted. Back to you. Guy narrowed, thank you very much nejra take you very much. Governor kuroda is speaking. He says it is working in japan. Well get more details as we work our way through. I want to talk about this next chart, oil. Yesterday moving sub 40. Data shows crude stockpiles expended for an eight week. There is a lot of oil floating around the world. Futures fell below 40 a barrel. We have not seen that since august. Opec is confident the market will stabilize itself did lets get more now with bloombergs chief correspondent. There is all lot there is a lot of oil out there. 30 billion barrels of oil floating. If you were to put all of that oil into a supertanker, the line would stretch. It gets very close. [indiscernible] saudi could stop producing for the next several months. This policy of opec, it has created a massive glut that is going to take a lot of time to get through. What are the fundamentals . What are people saying within the market . Javier supply is ahead of demand. We are beginning to see the fed science that these policy of opec is beginning to have its intended impact. This is the center of the shale boom in the united states. It posted its first decline. Since 2004. There is a time that desk this is a sign that low prices are beginning to affect production. The problem is this is too much oil. We are beginning to see the border of the market. Will not be in till well it will not be until well into 2016 guy governor kuroda speaking. Erik britton with us. What is the biggest factor in terms of hitting the target at the moment . Is a commodities and the input story . Maybe currency effects to come. Ecb and the bank of japan doing much more qe or china. Those may be to come. At the moment, the pressures are coming from oil prices. Price inommodity expectation is inflation, not deflation. It causes inflation. The consequent since that is your crowding in more demand,. Ore spending, more wealth t leads to summer guy erik it can be spread over one year, two years. It means higher inflation. Guy guys, i will leave it there. Lets continue the discussion on commodities. London shareholders meet in london today. Proceed with a deeply discounted for more, lets get andre. Bloombergs what are we talking about . Andre good morning. London shareholders are getting together. They are voting on 770 million refinancing package. That will unlock the remainder of the amounts in cash. Guy how do we think is going to go . Entree it is difficult to tell. Among the major shareholders, [indiscernible] only they said they are not in support of this office refinancing wreckage. Refinancing package. What is interesting is all of londons large shareholders are fairly new shareholders. They all bought in during the course of this year while london share prices were under pressure. There are shareholders who and will stay in the company. Guy deep value. Thisoes longman look after how does lonmin look after this. Andre what they are try to do is buckle up for the next four years while they expect platinum to stay low. Platinum prices to recover at some point. They need a revised business plan. They need that plan to work flawlessly. They cannot afford any of the interruptions that we have seen over the past year. While this is the first step alcee and lonmin. Guy entree, we will leave you there. Lets andre, we will leave you there. The rand hitting a record low against the dollar this month. How fast will that happen . For the rand, this is joe bank decision, put it all together. What happens next . What we are seeing is the rand reached a record low this month. 14 rand to the dollar