This is in seven days time, we will be waking up where the meeting with bond traders face off with the equity traders, who is prepared for the fed . That is the question, the longest losing streak in six months. Is it oversold . The relative strength index is below 30. But we are seeing the msci index, trading 11 times the 12 month earnings index. It is being punched as Global Growth concerns and of course worry about the fed next week. Theave day number eight of decline in emerging markets. The shanghai composite hitting a fiveweek low. All eyes will be on the yuan. Let us do you up to speed with a bloomberg first word. After decisions from new zealand, switzerland, and the u. K. Yesterday, it is the turn of Russias Central Bank to announce policy today. The governor is excited to keep rates on hold, despite battling the countrys first recession in six years. Bloomberg sources say argentinas new president is kicked off talks with several wall street banks for one year loans of up to 10 billion, as he tries to shore up Central Bank Reserves at their lowest in nine years. Share suspended in hong kong, after the Group Chairman has gone missing. The company owns club med, Cirque Du Soleil, and other commodities. Chinasrman, fosun, is richest man. David kamran has delayed the decision again on whether to allow another runway at heathrow airport. His government says more time is needed to carry out research into the environmental expects. Chief executive of iag, which runs british airways, says it shows Party Politics takes precedence over the economy. And the addition to have donald trump banned from theu. K. Has received a lot of signatures. Any petition with more than 100,000 signatures is automatically considered for debate in parliament. That is your bloomberg first word news, for more on these and other stories, had to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Manus let us get an update on the equity markets in asia. Chinese stocks are at f5week low, there is the folson story. Asian markets under pressure again today, as we close the week. Manus, i wish we were going into the weekend with a better future. But really, this is the asiapacific region, investors would rather forget. You spoke about the story, and it is having a widespread sentiment, impacting across the chinese markets, it is chinas largest privately held conglomerate. It is high profile, and it hits every sector of imaginable. The chairman, he has been out of contact, he is chinas warren buffett. He is idolized. For this to happen certainly has a lot of people questioning. This is a crackdown that is gone beyond just beyond financial and government, and no one know when the zero point will be reached. Somewhere gains out of the u. K. , there is sense that perhaps investors there are perhaps happier with evaluations after the selloff. In particular, we saw gains across the pharmaceutical space. Their recommendation particular, when it comes to cancer drugs japan being an aging population, pharmaceuticals are critical. Up by 7 , surging the most and eight months. This is despite the overall thai market on the cusp of the bear market now. He saw gains for airlines, with expectations the 20 16th be another record profitable year for them. That is how we are looking, a few gainers but really a negative picture in the friday session in asia. Manus thank you very much. Now to the bank of russia, expected to keep Monetary Policy unchanged when it meets later today. That is despite the countries battles, recession. Ryan chilcote joins me now. So it looks like the thinking from the economists that we appalled the majority of said we will see rates left unchanged. Ryan we talked to 34 economists. And the bank of russia will keep rates exactly were they are, at 11 . A handful of them think we will see a cut. What is interesting, we have seen a real migration on views of the economists. A lot of the median views what is a few month ago, was the central bank would cut. The central bank itself has indicated more than once that would like to cut. That is because of the situation in the economy, everybody says rates in the double digits, that is choking the economy. But the bank is concerned about Interest Rates. There are two reasons to be concerned about inflation. One, of course, is the depreciation of the ruble. Some say it should have depreciated more than it has created we can talk about that later. 6 on the back of the falling oil prices, and that creates a concern about inflation. Russias import a lot. And the weaker the currency, the more you have to pay for the imports. The second factor is of course russias ban on turkish imports. That particularly its food inflation, because you have less competition on the shelves and you end up with higher prices. This is a big concern, not just for people on the street, but also for Vladimir Putin. That is one of the reasons why people feel that, you know what, even though the central bank would really like to cut rates right now, takes below that 10 and get into the round of somewhat normal rates. It may not happen this time. But she does have a penchant for surprise. Manus she does, indeed. You have met her several times. We have the ruble falling, that is all in syncopation for the majority of the year. Iew of the market is that it has been dislocated somehow or another. Ryan absolutely, it is traditional to think of the relationship between the ruble and the bread price as an inverse one. Or as i should say, as the bread price falls, so does the ruble. We have see the correlation weakened. And with the price at 40 bucks a barrel, we should see the ruble at 80 to the dollar, not just shy of 70 where he are. If you look in the last three days, the ruble has actually strengthened, despite the fact we have seen oil fall over the last two days. Manus, russia gets about half of its money from the sale of oil and gas. Traditional logic is that it does not really matter because the ruble and central bank has a free float, they will still get a lot of money for the budget. Theyre not getting that much money right now, and that puts pressure on the budget deficit. That is a big issue out there. But again, the governor of the Central Bank Says if she allows the ruble to weaken, that creates inflationary pressures. And that is not would be very popular on the street or in the kremlin. Manus ryan, thank you very much. We will see what they do later in the day. For more, we are joined by allen higgins. Welcome to the show, good to have you in here. Ryan was just filling us in on terms of the conundrum for the russian central bank, which is rather idiosyncratic really but they are so closely linked to oil. But the swiss had a hawkish cut them a im sorry, new zealand went with a hawkish cut. The currency is overvalued. And there was no shift the bank of england. Central banks are all really waiting for the fed. Is that a Fair Assessment . Alan when it comes to russia, i think a couple of points. A big consensus on the short position, that we invest in bond managers and Equity Managers in general. Russianthe short equities and bonds. So there is an element of short covering. The other currencies in the spotlight, other emerging market currencies the brazilian. Manus i had a couple of people come through this week and said this quarter has been a bit of a reprieve, except for the rand, which had a near record low. When you look of the whole specter of Central Banks, and as i say in seven days time, we will wake up and have the equity traders, whether the quiche or meat is another discussion. But the emergingmarket discussion, readying themselves and almost seems, the fx markets are almost more fascinating read the euro has rallied by 3 . The new Zealand Dollar has had with the biggest rallies and almost a month. Is the fxondering, market where we will see perhaps the immediacy of impact, rather than the bond and the equity markets . Alan ive also been intrigued in the street by the aussie, having a good employment numbers. And the aussie dollar is being resilient, relative to commodity prices. So, maybe a bit of a leading indicator. But also, especially this time of year, positioning to be quite important a lot of these currencies we are talking about have been consensus shorts. And of course, the eurodollar has been a classic consensus position. When the ecb wanted to avoid the spike, that will make the fed so interesting. Any nuance of disappointment or tightening, im looking for 1 8 . Manus really . Alan not really, a quarter is baked in. But would not rule it out, and the feds are doves. Back to be one interpretation. The terminalld be rate for state funds is so much lower than before, we are not going back to 5 anytime soon. So you move in smaller interest, compared to 1994, when we were going from 3 to a 6 very quickly. I just want to say, just in case it happens. Manus you does want to have the clip a few more times. The other argument is money going into long bonds, the 30year bond. Jpmorgan to the survey. Investors are most bullish on treasuries since they have been in 2013, and the real return is in Government Bonds. Alan anyone bullish on treasuries, im very surprised. Im talking about consensus, one of the biggest positions, as well as to be underway in the other massive assets. They are bullish on treasuries. Where you might be picking that up on is getting into the bond world of curb flattening, that is a big tray. Avoid the short and. End. There is more money in the longer end of the curve, a small amount of money in the bond geeks duration markets. Manus the headline that you have on your report is follow the facts are not your feelings. It reasons to be cheerful in 2016. We are looking at energy and mining later, but the top line is that Global Equities are big. You said it will be better next year than it was this your. It was a cracker of a first quarter. Alan get me on twitter, i will send it to you. Manus this is a shameless plug. Alan reasons to be cheerful . One. Now, that is but we have a few of those. But ifinancial markets, think we will talk about this later, with inflation being so much yesterday was a good example with glencore who are the winners . The reality is there are no real corporate winners. Airlines to a certain extent of course theas companies you are talking about are generally long commodities. But the Global Economy is a winner. And that is what we talk about here. We have kind of forgotten that, it is positive for the Global Economy. Reasons to be cheerful . Growth and markets. Manus stay with me. S, we will get a final reading of german inflation. Then later in the morning, a Rate Decision from the russian centralbank read and this afternoon, it is all about the shopper. U. S. Retail sales, up next on countdown. Cheers to that. How the Beverage Industry is amongst one of the winners from the commodity crunch. Manus it is 6 17 here in london. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra a brazilian prosecutor has filed a civil action against the company after the dam month. Ed at a mine last they did not properly comply with state recommendations, and 13 people were killed when billions of leaders of liters hit the town. By that will likely acquired debt, taco bell intends to give billions of dollars back in dividends. Share suspended in hong kong, after a magazine reports that the groups chairman has gone missing. He owns club med, a state insert issalai, and the chairman chinas 17th richest man. Investing 4. 5 billion in electric vehicles, electric hybrids make up 40 of its lineup by 2020, up from just 13 now. Hiring up to 20 Investment Bankers in the u. S. To address falling it is fo behind. Andlans to recruit bankers the technology, consumer, healthcare industry. For more on these and others, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Manus thank you very much. Quite a week for the commodities sector, as we have been telling you every day. Largest is set forth losing streak in seven years, minus glencore. They were having to answer tough questions from investors. But there are some industries, some that are having a bit of a chance in the commodity decline. Ryan chilcote joins us now. You have been digging into the terminal. This is, in some ways, straightforward stuff. Not everybody is losing. Ryan that is right, there are a lot of winners. We have spent a lot of time talking about how the Airline Industry is a big winner. That is a nobrainer. As a price of fuel falls, the prices we pay for our tickets on the airplanes do not fall as much as the price of oil, hence the profitability increases. But as you go into the terminal and look at the bestperforming sectors on the stoxx 600, the benchmark for European Equity, you will find a couple of surprises. That is the second bestperforming sector out there right now. Builders, a big winner fifth bestperforming sector. And finally, the car sector, despite all of the issues we have seen in the automotive sector this year year today, also up along with the others. Bestit in the 10 performing sectors, outperforming the stoxx 600, which has risen 6 this year, while basic resources, as you know, have fallen a whopping 34 . Manus no doubt about it, anytime you run a function on the bloomberg, you see a new 1988 low. Alan is still with us, let us bring you in. Part of the reason you wrote the report, reasons to be cheerful. One of those is, of course, you referred to this very, very key phenomenon the oil market. Why are we cheerful, how do we trade . Good ryan makes a very point. If the party domestic european better, theoing contrast of the Commodity Companies that are long commodities, they do not have any companies that are explicitly sure, just some beneficiaries. The we write about is eightold story that Lower Oil Prices in particular, lower than commodity prices, is good for the Global Economy. Reasons to be cheerful next year, with a lag, we expect better growth. Better Global Growth overall. To trade it . Argue that equity is somewhat depressed now, buying Global Equities is the way to trade it. And i dont see reasons why the sectors could certainly be winners. But i would caution that with these commodity sector so bombed out, i saw an interesting analogy, i will use russia. The bestperforming bond market this year in dollars is russian bonds. Theyre the bestperforming, by far. And a lot of these Commodity Companies are now run effectively for bondholders, glencore almost exclusively buying back. We could be sitting here next year saying the bestperforming sector were commodity bonds. You know, russian equities kind of held up in the equity space, it could be flat. I would not want to be short commodities here. I think commodity bonds are very interesting. Because nearly all of those companies are run for bondholders now. Ryan look at carmakers and car parts, you see the trouble in the industry, the weakness of vw and porsche, but up 12 year to date. Ever reasons you were just kind of alluding to, you have the consumer really benefiting from the Lower Oil Prices. They are out there in the u. S. , you have to dollar gas liter inng . 99 a this country. People are buying bigger cars. I was looking at fiat. Year to date share price is up 30 . One of their bestselling cars is the jeep. Would you agree with the idea that there is a double beneficiary, it is sort of twofold. A, consumers come back online. Driving is cheap, it is great. In addition to that, the more advantage you get from the lower input costs, in terms of all those metals in the cars. Alan i think you are spot on. Adding another factor, china auto Sales Holding a. Consumption manus you will see wage increases of 7 . Alan very important for volkswagen, of course. And the fiat. The luxury part of fiat, which is highly sought after. The ferrari, maserati component. Manus were you surprised yesterday when we saw the news that they had a stable of very unique propositions come in terms of those margins . Alan they have their financing, they just do not have a big loan, stable company. They do not need to. Theyre not like the Commodity Companies where they need to do the bridge. I am not too surprised. Manus just to circle back, you said in two years time, we will be talking about commodity debt as something that could be a cause for 2016. For our viewers, sitting there asking if you split the market into a couple of areas, you have the bhp, glencore. You have them beat, as it were, the markets. And you have the sort of tear two, this is the equity side that is bombed out for the year so far. Alan exactly, so if you are a private investor, tread cautiously. Individual waiting should be small. Because it is embedded into these bonds, the negative production essentially, it can go to 20 rated if things go wrong, still a diversified portfolio could be interesting. How you differentiate is the likes of lower debt burdens. And as you go down to the likes of glencore, there is a higher debt border. You get to the u. S. , the likes of freeport. And if you want to go super highquality you can buy exxon. There still are aaa companies in the energy sector. And that is what you want. I will stick my revocation on that. Actually, despite the trades like treasuries. Alan stays with us. Up next, another day, another executive goes mia in china. Sure, tv has evolved over the years. Its gotten squarer. Brighter. Bigger. Its gotten thinner. Even curvier. But whats next . For all binge watchers. Movie geeks. Sports freaks. X1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. Manus it is 6 30 in london. Let us get to the bloomberg first word news. after decisions a from new zealand, switzerland, and the u. K. Yesterday, it is a time for russia to announce decisions they. It will keep the rates on hold, despite battling the countrys first recession in years. Bloomberg sources say argentinas new president is picked off talks with several wall street banks are loans up to 10 million, that is as he tries to shore up reserves at