Manus welcome to countdown. Anna a warm welcome. , a lot ofctures emotion on the streets coming from result. With theart in doha oil story. Doha. Et in such expectations built up to this meeting even though we knew the iranians may or may not have played ball. Manus the saudis made it clear that they wanted the iranians on board. Road to dohathe crash. Everything is reacting aggressively in the wake of that disappointed. Let us check out the fx board. The wtiwn 4. 7 , and down 4. 2 . The aussie and the Canadian Dollar and the yen. The biggest around the yen. Near a 1. 5 year high. There was also an earthquake in japan. Lew called on Foreign Exchange moves to be orderly. Warning against the potential intervention. This has flowed over into the fx well inut elsewhere as reaction to the story out of brazil as well and that has also rocked markets. Anna treasuries are also on the move. Money going into treasuries. The perception of it being a safe haven. Some of the yields coming down on the short end of the curve. Result, it is of hard to find a better reflection of assets on the move. In japan, some reaction including a selloff. The story is not over. She is clinging on her fingernails. Manus the impact on the brazilian currency. What is the reality of this debacle in doha. Rebounds. Yvonne good morning. The brazilian lawmakers have voted to impeach the brazilian president. The opposition achieved a to thorton a two thirds majority. A simple majority in the senate would have her suspended while she faces an impeachment trial. The president said the campaign ousted the campaign to oust her amounted to a coup. A treasury report. Permanentuld cause rather than temporary damage to the economy due to lower trade in investment. Cutrnment income would be at enormous cost to public spending. The French Economy minister said britain leaving the eu would weaken its power in the world. He will attempt to persuade china to drastically scale back its production of steel. Because when you discuss this deal industry with china, you have credibility because you are part of the eu. Situationever be in a to make agreements with china because your domestic markets are involved with china. Ne Stuart Gulliver plans to quit in two years and the bank will appoint a new chairman to help pick a new executive. He took over in 2011. He has gail spector hsbcs operations and cut nearly 90,000 jobs under pressure from unhappy shareholders. The stock has followed about 16 this year. A series of large earthquakes in japan may add to the case for allday to increase for abe to increase physical intervention. 2011 quake and tsunami would justify delaying the height. Economists had been calling on him to hold off raising the tax. A British Airways flight has landed weekly at you throw after being struck by a drone. Reported an object hanging in front of the airbus 320. It is thought to up and the first time a drone collided with a commercial airliner in the u. K. Although dozens of near misses have been reported. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on bloomberg at top. Manus thank you. Let us get into the markets. The cfi is dropping. Disappointment abounds from doha and the reverberations are global. Juliet a gloomy start to the trading week here in asia. Ande is a pickup in jakarta new zealand. Elsewhere coming you can see there is selling coming through. That is probably similar to what you will see in europe led by Oil Producers and the crude futures. In hong kong, coming under and oilant pressure producers being sold off across the region. The earthquake and the flight to the yen putting pressure on that nikkei 225. Down over 3 in late trade. Export stocks coming under pressure as well as the companies that have factories in the earthquake area are coming under selling pressure. In korea, the cost be up by. 4 . Kospi up by. 4 . Every sector is heavily in the red. Coming off the fourmonth highs and we had on friday. The first time it has been in the red. Looking at some of the other watching,have been Qantas Airways has fallen to a twoyear low. In australia as it cut its domestic capacity outlook. The flight to say favorite. Here are some of the companies in japan at that have been affected by the earthquake over the weekend. Ntn, aa 10 week low 10 week low. The recovery in macau. We are seeing sans higher. Sands higher. Property prices are better than expected. Property companies. Here is another reason why we are seeing this downward pressure in the region. The researches of the japanese yen. Up 5. 7 . 107. 96. Another reason to put downward pressure on asian equities today. Wrapping up the latest moves in the market. Many reacting to the oil story. Talks between the the worlds biggest Oil Producers has failed to strike a deal on freezing oil production. Doha tohered in stabilize the global markets. Manus the news of the failed talks has sent oil tumbling. Run us through this debacle. What went wrong . Before this meeting took place, it could be deal or no deal. The iranians did not show. The saudis have a longheld position that they would only freeze output if everyone did likewise including the iranians. Saturday night, word emerged of a Draft Agreement involving the russians, the saudis, and the venezuelans. According to the russian oil minister, some countries changed their position right before the summit was due to begin on sunday morning leading to some the oilussions although minister refused to pen the thee on the to pin blame on the iranians. How could a country that did not participate be the reason for the failure. This is the position of the largest producer, saudi arabia. All think all white back opec members should participate. Toan will continue increase its production. Anna you mentioned the june date. Is that what happens next . The russians are saying that the door is not closed on a freeze agreement. That is right. Ari minister said the channels of communication remain open. Unless something major happens, the next big get together for Oil Ministers will be at the next opec meeting on june the second in vienna. I ran will continue to try to claw back its lost market share. It is aiming for 4 Million Barrels a day. The other producers will continue to produce at near record levels. The consequences will continue. Startedce the oil slump in 2014, they have put away significant reserves. The saudis can get revenue from other areas such as an ipo. For others, it is more painful. As the prices decline further in trading after the meeting, there will be plenty more pain to come for these Oil Producers. Globalere joined by the head of fx strategy. Doha. S your thoughts post a lot of expectations were built into the market in many Asset Classes. That is right. The reaction that we have seen so far is largely expected taste on what happened yesterday. We will see a continuation in the early part of the week. Bearish. That the rally we that have seen in the oil price in the last few weeks was not entirely driven by expectations about an agreement in freezing the output. Let us not forget that over the past couple of months, we have seen some improvement in chinese data which tends to support commodity prices. Whole, on the notwithstanding volatility, we may see some resumption over the in a marginally upward trend. Manus the immediate reaction. Fxre will be pressure on the reserves of some of those middle Eastern Countries again. And then the commodity producers. The immediate reaction. Which has its own story. Canadian dollar along with that as well as the aussie dollar. They have all had outstanding first quarters. All predicated on this road to doha and stopping production at levels we saw in january. Do you scale back from your exposure based on the fact that saudi has taken a demonstrative line . Need to be far more cautious than you used to be. I say this because i go back to the previous points. All the rally has been exceptional in these currencies. Was justhink that it the expectation of the doha agreement, there is a dollar element in this. The overvaluation of the dollar is being corrected. Put asidemarket, if i for a second what happened in doha, we need to start differentiating. Valuations will be far more important going forward. By our estimates, the Australian Dollar is working percent overvalued. I would because is about it. The loony remains undervalued. I am quite bullish. Anna we have to differentiate. Here are some highlights of the week ahead. Manus u. S. Earnings season accelerates today. Morgan stanley will hit the tape tomorrow. New york state kobe holding the primaries. Wednesday, president obama visits saudi arabia to visit the heads of state of the gc nations. Gcc nations. Manus friday, it is earth day with a landmark Paris Agreement set to be signed by 120 countries. Anna obama will conclude his visit by coming to europe and to the u. K. What will he say about brexit . What is next for brazils in battered president embattled president . Anna welcome back. The hang seng is down 1. 3 . Weakness of the asian equity market in todays trade. Yvonne hsbc is said to be preparing for change at the top. Stewart gulliver plans to quit in two years. The fed will first approach a new chairman to help it pick a new chairman. Hsbcsscaled back business. Including cutting 90,000 jobs. The stock has fallen 16 this year. Telecomitains biggest operator with may be veep to the tote by the eu. It may be blocked within weeks. Regulators are said to be unconvinced hot and since offer to sell space to virtual operators will create enough competition. They want them to sell Network Infrastructure to a new rival. Verizon is the leading suitor for yahoo . Verizon and its a unit is working with at least three Financial Advisors on a bid that would include yahoos stake in yahoo japan. That is your business flash. Manus let us focus on the brazilian president. It is her presidency is hanging by a thread. Anna the opposition has achieved a two third motion to advance the motion to the senate. Let us get more on the scandal. Great to have you on the program. Ishii doomed . Is she doomed . Bleakis looking pretty for her. Last night, the result was a her opponentsfor than they had been expecting carry a 25 vote margin in the lower house. That suggests that when the Senate Continues whether to start the process, her chances of winning that boat are pretty slim. The senate only needs a simple majority to start an impeachment process. That would remove her from office. Let us talk about investments. To get that momentum to continue, it is a tall order. Likely tors are respond positively to the development yesterday. The politicswhen has played out, the underlying Economic Situation remains pretty ghastly. 3. 8 mf is forecasting a contraction which is amongst the worst in the world. Whoever is in charge of brazil going through the rest of this year has a job on their hands. Manus thank you very much. The global fx strategy is still with us. These markets have rocked along. A similar story and trajectory for the real. All predicated on her going. She is there by a thread. The risk in the markets, the brazilian currency has been one of the better performing ones. Rings happen. Let me make a couple of points. About emerging markets in general. The first i would say is that if you look at the number of mere emerging market funds, they underperformed the benchmark. Which means that although we have seen signs of implosion in the markets, they still seem to be under weighted to the benchmark. Going back to the chinese point of view. About china, so much so there is a fear about how planning is priced out. To the extent that we are pricing that out, to the extent that the market is still shrinking thinking about a cautious said and a mild height in cycle, i think it is quite likely that these emerging markets will continue as investors rebalance overweight. Distinguisheed to among the emerging market currencies. Which market you favor . Favor . H market do you risk needs to be taken into perspective. Lira will be laggard in this rally. Currencies that i do favor include the south grand the South African rand. I like poland as well. Volatilityke out the coming from the oil market, the le is going to fair well fare well by the end of the year. Last time you were here, we looked at this and the complexion has not changed that much. The ruble and the brazilian currency. This relation between those currencies and oil is indefatigable this year. The whole structure of the has been very traditional. All of a sudden, Higher Oil Prices are a good risk. Risk on. Now that oil prices are retreating, it is risk off. World. T is an al when we return, the battle of the banks. Able yuan man has a first word news. Yvonne were taking a look at resilient lawmakers who voted to impeach the president. Achieves a two thirds majority needed to move the process to the senate. A simple majority would see her suspended while she faces and impeachment trial. George osborne will ramp up his campaign to keep britain in the European Union. He will highlight a treasury report showing that a brexit would cause permanent damage to the economy. He says that would cut Government Income at enormous cost to public spending. A deadly series of earthquakes in southern japan may add to the case for the Prime Minister to add to economic stimulus. Said only an economic shock on the scale of the 2008 Global Financial crisis or the 2011 quake and tsunami would justify delaying the hike. Advisors had been calling on him to hold off. Airways flight has landed safely at heathrow after being struck by a drone. An object hit the fun the front of the airbus. It is thought to be the first time a drone has collided with a commercial airliner in the u. K. Although dozens of near misses have been reported. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on bloomberg at top. Anna lets check in on the live market action. The oil story out of doha is dominating market moves. The first significant attempt at coordinating oil output between opec and other countries in 15 years has come to nothing. Hedge funds did want the summit to work out because if you look at the yellow line, we are looking at net long positions on wti in the days leading up to sunday. They were near a ninemonth high. In the wake of the meeting, wti has tumbled. 38. 59 dropping down below the 40 mark. It is impacting markets across the board. Looking at currencies, we see the aussie dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the Malaysian Ringgit and the norwegian krone weakening today. From 100. The Commodity Currencies have fallen and money has been moving into the yen. Againsthas been rising the dollar. It is been supported by the fact that japan did not much find much of support. In terms of stock markets, we have seen japans topix dropped the most in almost two months. Strongercause of a yen. Insurers are leading the losses. Overall, looking at asian markets, asian stocks falling for the first time in nine days. Dropping from the four month high. Risk off. The oile are joint by markets analyst. Global market of fx. Great to have you with us still. The saudis locked a deal. Cked a deal. Rallyarge part of the which started early in february was based on investors and the sentiment in the market being bullish because of the potential freeze. The verdict is out. They were not able to achieve a freeze. It was a clear indication that there was no agreement. Go . how low does it if you look at paris stocks, we were down almost to 28 kirk ferentz. For brent. Justified. Ould be for brent. Manus the supply and demand situation is critical. Saudi and kuwait production are at juxtaposition. Is that my biggest risk . Hedge funds are bullish. They are geared for a rally. They are on the wrong side of the trade. They are ready to crank out more oil, the saudis. Yesterdays meeting was an indication to the iranians if you are not joining, we have enough power to crank up production. Now that there is no freeze, the saudis can increase production. See you a and other members uae and other members increase. The Money Managers expecting production to be frozen and not increasing are caught at the wrong end. They will selloff or get out until prices find a bottom. Once you start to see that, you will see u. S. Producers who were otherwise hoping for this to happen, they will get a lifeline. Anna how did markets get this so wrong . Misunderstand what the saudis were going to do . If you look at the stoxx in february stocks in february, the foreign reserve has declined in the last 18 months. Made one of the largest losses in foreign reserves. Gauge. Are trying to even for markets, that was enough. The fx reserves have dropped by 20 since the oil market was rocked. Egs underf the pa pressure . Options pricing. Is that a trade that some should consider . No. The pegs you mentioned are to the dollar. Comparedifferent now to the Fourth Quarter of last year is that the dollar has reversed strength. The problem with the peg is that when you are chasing a strong has come the dollar off. Anna the pegs get some relief. Arabia and saudi what they wanted to achieve. There is a great piece by one of our oil experts talking about how the saudis will not cry over this diplomatic failure. They did not want the prices to get so high. I do agree on that. If you look at the saudi position, they were stuck. It was not just about the iranians. Inre was a chance of giving to let the iranians out of the freeze. But if they had frozen production, all of them excluding iran, markets would of taken on a bullish sentiment. Prices would have started rising. Story ended. Hope that inhave a six months, they will ultimately see the effect of the strategy that they took 18 months ago in production. A large part of that will show up in north american production. Anna thank you for joining us. Two houses and two different views. What you should do and how you should own the u