Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20160511 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown May 11, 2016

Tous youre welcome countdown. Anna breaking news. Manus lets get into it. Miss. Ue, it is a 13 billion euros, the market was looking for 13. 2. Formarket was looking less, almost doubled a negative number the market was looking for on organic volume. China, the market their declining by 3 or 4 stop Eastern Europe is an important part of that story. Eastern europe is under pressure. Contracts, Eastern Europe has declined by midsingledigit percentages. The western beer market is flat. Deutsche First Quarter beating estimates, revenue that was missing those estimates. They have confirmed their fullyear view. The 201320 operating profit target. Interesting to see how this business is managing to cope with a boom in Parcel Delivery because of Online Retailing and how that is offsetting any declined in their letter delivery business. Dominant male carrier in germany that is increase their postage prices at the beginning of the year. Internet, they also own the dhl express and majestics brand. Rosen will be speaking to the on the move team. Manus lets talk a little bit about spending. This is a huge engineering trend, Oil Transport is their business. At 30. 36by some 7 billion. That turns it around from a loss of 719 million. Lets look at the 2020 targets. Target of Cost Reductions of 250 Million Euros per anum. Flips it around from a loss. Theyre confirming the 2020 targets. When it comes to sales level, the is a leg big, above 6. 7 billion that was out in terms of the estimate. Afine set of results for business that the 70 with you in europe. 17. 9 of its business and asia. Anna, your limit of a you have a little bit of allianz. Anna we are getting comments on that part of the business. They havebe crucial, been struggling to stem the outflow from pemco over the last few years. The assetso reverse under management. Outflow peaking following the resignation of the ceo. Always interesting to talk to this type of business above the low Interest Rate environment and how they are managing to cope with that, and the competition. Interesting to look at the details of their numbers, talking my third party profit falling. That is compared to december the 31st. They give us some guidance for fullyear operating profits. So, some guidance on the feature and some comment about outflows coming through from that company. Now, speaking life to the on the move team coming up in terms of these earnings. Quickly, lets pull up the risk radar. Since januaryyen maybe a little bit overdone. Little bitlike a excessive. The dollar index, despite Goldman Sachs talking about that going up. The new zealand dollar, that has been moving around about half a percent this morning. Downward speculation of Interest Rate will be cut. We have goldman there is well. Manus we have indeed. It is interesting, how they all deliver. Lets look across to rishaad, good afternoon, good morning from dubai. President he brazilian is facing what could be her last day in office as the senate is gearing up for an Impeachment Vote that would force her out. Major new suggesting the president needs more than 50 votes than a simple majority. Donald trumps won the north virginia primaries. Name was still on the ballot in nebraska and had hinted that he might we enter the contest if he had performed well. Bernie sanders is projected to win West Virginia. Goldman sachs says the dollar slumped is over. After her dog poor jobs data. Increases have fallen too far, too fast, the bank estimated dollar will advance 15 are in the next two years. It is dependent on the normalization of Monetary Policy in the u. S. More than half a britain thinks the only to curb immigration is for the u. K. To vote to leave the European Union and the next months referendum according to a poll. Of people backing brexit say it is the only way to cut immigration. Who want to remain in the bloc feel the same. Greek stocks could be one of the best bets among western european markets. That is according to jpmorgan, economic reality will soon rein in the exuberance that the stock index says. This is at odds with Morgan Stanley which recommended shares of the countrys lenders following other bullish calls. Global is 24 hours at a powered by more than 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. Thank you very much. The equity market session. All the other Asset Classes moving around. Shery has details for us. That seems sentiment to be easing now with that rebounded commodities. Gaining forg shares third consecutive day up half of a percent. There now at a twoweek high. Also ginny for fifth consecutive session. In thelook at stocks philippines, up 3 . After roderigo claimed victory in the president ial race. We are seeing that they are experts missing estimates this morning falling more than 15 . China coming back from its lunch break, take a look at the shanghai index up. 7 . The hang seng is falling almost as much. Chinese stocks trading in hong kong have had a tough week. Their resuming losses again today as we see them decline for the seventh time in 8 days. South to korea south korea is also declining. Worth mentioning, we are reaching the peak of a japanese earnings is season. That will impact some companies there. Look atg more than 14 , that after the profits beat estimates. Thatforecasted dividends beat estimates, but their quarterly profit is not looking great. Falling a halfan a percent. They had to book ¥11 billion that was huge in the Fourth Quarter. Is japanese yen strengthening again today after two days of losses. Manus there with the latest in hong kong, union credit ceo has faced a torrent of questions over the capital strength. That after lending growth led to an erosion of the buffer in its First Quarter. Now, he is not worried about union credits financial strength and he is confident the lender will meet its 2016 earnings targets. He spoke to uber tv in milan. Bloomberg tv in milan. We keep working to improve capital. Plan and a later sixmonth figure. We traded capital organically, much more than any other banks. We continue in this way. The plan was to have an capitality to prove our , and disposing business but not enough. We never gave any number that was as a good. There was a reason to say that. Meanwhile, the bank swung its a loss, after its increase provisions for bad loans to comply with the ecbs requirements to gain approval. Dont joining us now to talk about the banking and low , thank you for joining us. How are you looking at the Banking Sector at the moment . We have had a number of banks beating estimates. I suppose estimates were pretty low going into this earnings season. Chris it has been a very tough year for the banks. 78s amazing that after years since the worst of the credit slump were still in the situation where the banks in europe are very much in recuperation mode. It is rather reminiscent of japan in the late 90s that we seem to have a zombie bank problem. There are some actions being taken. That takes is on to interest what people are concerned about implications of negative Interest Rate. The margins of the banks are being squeezed further. Morning, one of the things that caught my eye this morning is bowls bubbles. Sergio yesterday come before me this is a Seismic Shift in thinking. They may pass negative rates very rich clients. If it impacts business, people of the start paying for banking. We have a lovely bart chart, bubbles, the general mortgage chart is on fire. Chris indeed. This is the thing which worries central banker so much about the sorts of policies. It does tend to lead to misallocation of capital. That is clearly a concern right now. It will be interesting to see if we finally get to the point where these negative Interest Rates to start to get passed on to noncorporate customers. So far, we havent really we talked about it, we understand its hypothetical insistence existence, but it does not impact anyones lives at the moment. It hasnt really reached through until into the consumer bag. There are places that Central Banks that have just dipping into negative rates and experimenting with negativity, places they can look for to learn a few lessons about how this has gone for others. For example, denmark, they have had them for four years. The relationship between Interest Rate and inflation, does it look broken . Years in denmark, the inflation picture is not been picking up. People are asking if the profitability of some of the banks in this region is not so bad, but not necessarily having the intended consequences. Thes this really is conundrum, potentially, facing central bankers. Weve already seen the bank of japan and european Central Banks putting their hand in the fire with negative Interest Rates and getting their fingers seriously burned in terms of initial market reaction. The consequences of those seem to be the opposite. That has always been made people wary. The bottom line is, negative nominal Interest Rates are a lot more questionable in terms of dire benefit their benefit. With a negative real rates, that is what the yuan is potentially going to get in the next few months. That is probably the u. S. Trump card, they can allow inflation to rise. All they have to do is sit pat and not raise Interest Rates. This much better combination. I think that is probably the biggest thing in favor of the u. S. Economy right now. Anna no doubt we will talk about the u. S. More. Only a 4 chance of a rate hike in june. Manus i know that is your favorite function, lets get up to speed with some highlights of the day. Will they u. K. Time, we get a snapshot of the u. S. Property market with the mba mortgage applications. Brazils, could this be the big one . Congress will vote on the impeachment of their president. Then, britains chances that George Osmond will be questioned by the house of commons treasury committee. About a report warning about permanent economic damage on brexit. Bloomberg customers can watch that on live go. Also coming up later today, we speak to the italian finance minister, but up next, on this program, could today be to brazilian president s last day in office . Manus welcome back to countdown, looking at a glorious Dan Hong Kong where unfortunately the hang seng is down. Lets the Bloomberg Business flash. Areaad disney shares falling in extended trading. The tv network struggled in the u. S. Dollar hit profits from star wars merchandise. A onel be looking for dollar 40, to gaze unit marks a retreat from efforts to make console games. The theme park is ahead of disneyland to shanghai opening next month. Office depot after a federal judge agreed with prosecutors saying it would create an unrivaled giant. Shares are down 10 after hours. Office depot plunging some 26 . Better revenue and profit from south asia operation for next year, the bank is recovering from making record provisions in india. A 981 million loss last year. Additional Bloomberg Business flash, back to you guys that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna today could be the last day in office for the president. Brazil will hold a vote that may force her out and into impeachment trial that she looks unlikely to win. Former brazilian bureau chief, who has been following this story closely. The president is pushed into an impeachment trial, what happens next . It will be a long day debate long debate first, isnt it . Itll finish at about 7 00 local time post of this could be her last day in office. They need a simple majority to start the impeachment trial. She would need to step aside, local newspapers have a have north of 50 votes. Anybodys guess as to what could happen. We have some legal hurdles that came up earlier this week. Everything seems to be back on track in that sense. Even when she is gone, and need to come back with a second vote. This will play out for some days. Big one. Is a this could be her last formal day in office. Investorsind us how have been reacting as the impeachment of the president is looking forward. Andrew it is somewhat of a counterintuitive point, brazilian local in terms of dollar is up this year. That is the best return in the world. Investors are betting that we have had five months of uncertainty and not knowing where brazil is going. Lets get this behind us, and move on. The problem is, brazil is in the deepest recession in 100 years at least. The man who will succeed you might has questions about his own political conduct. There are huge challenges ahead. It may be the case to begin a shortterm bump with more certainty. Then we will see where the country goes. It has endless challenges, all of the people in poverty that enlisted out of it in a decade ago will be very upset about this. We have seen a lot of protests in the streets. I think it is early to say whether this is the end of something, or just the start of a new phase. Anna andrew, thanks for a much. With what is happening in brazil, with a still on set, chris, give us your thoughts on what is going on in brazil at the moment. I was drawn to some comment in your notes this morning that suggested this really is not the way to build consensus around reform. There will be protests, it seems. Chris as you just heard, very much in the opening. Youre not seen a play out with the situation. To be an extremely acrimonious process. It already is. We will have to move on to what happens next. It is not really clear at all that there is going to be a Good Platform for reform. When i look at brazil after that, in the context of its own. So far, what you have seen is a rally in emergingmarket assets generally. Brazil has caught everyones attention because everyone looks for a deep valley situation. You have both in brazil. After that, we say what comes next . What would be the best way to play emerging markets . It may not be brazil, that begs a nice question, where would you prefer to play, and which asset class . The bonds have outperformed dramatically relatively to some of the currency volatility, havent they . Right. Absolutely after the rallies, what do we know, we clearly know that there intome hope baked brazilian asset prices. There actually was in that three or six months ago. It is the point of other utter evil jim. Evulsion thatgives it legs, probably does depend on, broadly speaking, a couple of things. We would like to see continued stability in the Commodity Markets. Anna that takes us into this chart. Chris it is beginning to look that way, the technicals have been improving. For emerging markets, and in conjunction with commodity market. Yes, weve had the golden cross now. Laid foundations are being one by one. Anna thank you very much. Up next, we are talking about brexit. Welcome back, this is countdown. Breaking news, the German Energy incomeey underlying net was better than the estimates. It comes with some caveats, they say that the improvement is due to the agreement, and their earnings would have declined without that. Make a expecting them to onetime adjustment for natural gas contact. The agreement ended a twoyear to cancelenabled eon some provisions that it made in earlier years. Enabling some upside to the earnings picture. The firston generally shifted its field and trading into a separate company. It wants to listen that business. Look for anyugust, further details coming through from that. There talking with the transformation process, making progress. This is going to make it look like a very different business. It will be going into that other listing, and eon will look much more renewable. Will bee ceo of eon talking to the pulse. Sticking with germany, numbers from the metro german retailer, or food and electronics first of is also a company that is due to split in two, incidentally. There talking what a pretax loss savings of berries items. That was against 89 million the previous year. Loss, 57 million versus 67 million lost the previous time. Is one,he sales number 13. 6 billion for secondQuarter Sales, that is broadly in line with estimates. Revenue meeting estimates on strong germany sales and confirming that for your guidance. Rishaad has the first word news for us. the brazilian president is facing what may be her last day in office. It is an impeachment trial that she looks unlikely to win. The opponents have at least 50 votes, more than a super majority they need to move toward impeachment. Donald trump has won the west primary, a week after driving his competitors out of the race. Still on theme was ballot and had hinted he might reenter the contest if he performed well. Bernie sanders is a projected winner in West Virginia. It would be his 19th state victory, but just has 37 delegates up for grabs. Goldman sachs says the dollars a slump is over. Sulumps slumo i is over. Fast,g too far and too position in the currency for a rebound. During the next two years, the u. S. Normalizes Monetary Policy. If you havent benefited from a rebound that is taken place in it is aocks this year, bad among western european markets and this too late to join in according to jpmorgan. He says that an agreement on that relief is the economic reality and will soon rein in the exuberance. And thes at autoblog Morgan Stanley would last week oddsmended shares at with the Morgan Stanley which last week recommended shares. Mother more stories if you go to bloomberg top. Manus lets get the very latest now. Helped by stronger metal prices. What is going on . Nejra is here. Nejra a lot of focus on commodities today first of were seeing metals rebound after losses this week and last week on concerns about china. I have the industrial index metal i

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