Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20160809 : vimarsana.com

Donald trump talks tax. He puts out his vision to return the u. S. Economy to its glory days. Good morning. Welcome to countdown. Markets are big. Equities are racing higher. Is experiencing a he puts out his vision to return the u. S. Economy to its glory days. Stumbling blg block. We are on the longest losing streak since may of last year. Sincengest losing strict streak since may of last year. People are beginning to really understand what the brexit means for the currency. Barbecues beat brexit. Do when thebrits going gets tough . Shopping and have barbecues. Retail sales are where the market has taken us. Is there more easing or pain to come . Let us look at the risk radar. Ive mentioned equities. They are racing ahead. Mse i asia is up 0. 5 msci asia is up 0. 5 . Something which has shopping ane barbecues. Retail sales are where the market has taken us. Which it. S not pumping ahead is nymex oil falls as these informal oil that are notely likely to talk about supply. The Russian Energy minister says there is no need for a freeze. The japanese government want views. More negative. You have got the result of a 30 year sale a little bounce in demand. Negative yield still draws of it. Dollaryen we have hit a pause button. Hedge funds cut their bullish trends on the yen to the lowest in two months. Goes it be that the yen off and the dollar goes big . Let us get the bloomberg first word news. Donald trump has laid out his plan for growth in the u. S. Pulling from traditional republican ideas like tax cuts. He told the Detroit Economic Club he wanted to simplify excessive business regulations and lift restrictions on the Energy Sector. He wants lower corporate taxes. Start a smallever business under the tremendous Regulatory Burden that you have today in our country. We are going to end it. Regulationso cut massively. England policymaker says the policy that says the central bank should follow a gradual approach in response to brexit. If the u. K. Economy slows, he believes that more easing is likely to be required. Meanwhile, u. K. Consumers put aside any brexit anxiety to one side in july as warmer weather boosted demand for food, drink, and clothing. Sales is theth in most since january. Oganish president erd visits st. Petersburg to rebuild relations with russia. Ago, president pugh tins called turkeys downing of a russian fighter on the Syrian Border a step in the back. In japan, the fair trade commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. The agency is looking into whether there was a deal for sellers that gave more favorable conditions over other ecommerce companies. Delta airlines said the number of flights disrupted by the computer failure is approaching 1000. Commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. They expect more than 100 services to be hedged this morning after having canceled many flights yesterday. The delays and cancellations will continue even as the systems come back online. Global news, 20 47 each day. 24 hours each day. This is bloomberg. Us talk about those asian markets. I mentioned the msci is pacing ahead. At gains. Are looking not as much as we saw on monday but we are still seeing decent gains, especially across the more developed markets like australia, and south korea. Japan is doing the heavy lifting. 0. 75 . Up roughly dataave bits and pieces of i know you will talk about the china data but very encouraging set of numbers out of china. Then you factors may have some more pricing power. Than 30, in less minutes, we get the rpi r. B. I. Position. The last meeting he will preside over. No changes expected there. Speaking a Central Banks, let us look at what is happening in the fx markets. Malaysian ringgit. We are seeing some weakness coming through when it comes to the aussie dollar and kiwi dollar. Taking rates down to 1 within the next year. More rate cuts. Kiwi dollar the here. Let me get that up quickly. 100 at the function cutsbility that the rbm rates on thursday to a new record low. Manus let us break down the data from china. We have our chief asia economics expert. Standing by in hong kong. Some good news to every central banker in the world. They must be kicking back great. Good morning. Certainly in china, we are potentially seeing a turning point. One of the big drags on chinas economy has been falling prices at the factory gates. We are seeing that decline at its slowest pace in two years. There are some suggestions that we could inch into positive territory. There is one qualifier prices arecertainly in china, we are potentially seeing a turning point. Improving not because china butackling access supply, it is more a reflection in the pickup in Commodity Prices like oil and iron ore that china is importing. We could see easing of deflationary pressure is of chinas factory but that does not mean much for the global disinflation or low inflation story. Positivess, it is a for chinas economy. The hint that the destabilization story is continuing. Manus the next couple of days. Over the coming days they are expected to confirm stabilization. If nothing else. That is what we are hoping for in terms of the growth trajectory. That narrative seems to be in place at the moment. We are seeing stabilization on all of the data. Reserves on the weak and. End. We had trade numbers yesterday not great but not a rapid deterioration either. We have industrial numbers coming up this weekend. And the credit aggregate numbers will be coming. When we look at these numbers like retail sales, we talk about ppi. They all point to the economy finding a floor which is better than where we were last year when there was can trouble on t as to where the economy when there was considerable uncertainty as to where the economy was going. Willingexporters are back to life and the importers want to talk in all of the commodities that they cant and here is a growth driver for the global economy. There is still a relative slowing. All indications are that the transition will take some time to complete. That is why we are seeing. Olicymakers continue to lean no sign of a dramatic turnaround for the chinese economy anytime soon. Manus a very sobering take on the data. Guest, anna,in my the head of emerging market macro. Always good to have you with us. He burst my enthusiasm. Ave got it for you here inflation data. This is the white line, that is the inflation data. The underlying tenor is iron ore and oil. He would maintain this boost in the manufacturing prices is not having anything to with tackling the factory. Credit is going quite strongly in china and the with much less Global Impact has been depreciating against the dollar. Not only are some of the underlying Commodity Prices other than oil going up but they are importing inflation through the Exchange Rate against the commodities and the dollar generally and the multipliers are working once again. And the market is not so worried about it because the problem of the credit, for the time being, or the problem of the Exchange Rate or the combination has been bottled up through capital controls and much less risk of an event such as a big devaluation. Isus that risk of and event what they want to a boy in terms of the currency. In terms of the reserves they were tempered better. Will most Central Banks sleep more easily . The biggest move into decades. Will Central Banks sleep more easily because of this data they are seeing from china . Reducing the event risk is always good. The trouble is of course the underlying issues continue. The economy is rebalancing which means it is slowing down. And the export of deflationary pressure from china and other places through the rest of the world through the surplus and cheaper currency all of that continues. If i were a central bank are i would sleep more easily what not that long but not that long. Manus the s p 500. The relationship. This time last year, we were in a syncopated move. Wen that dying went the economy. Is it good credit . Is it the good form of credit . And when will they deal with their overcapacity . Front, there is always a distribution. Some of this is undoubtedly good stuff going on plus the economy continues to rebalance towards services. Against that, there is an overcapacity problem which they plan to deal with by supplyside reforms. Plus, some of the credit is probably going into more overcapacity. Some is going into more credit because credit growth the credit itself is being capitalized and a lot of the data is just being refinanced. That is why they need a bigger and bigger credit impulse to get the same output response in gdp. Every central bankers issue at the moment. It is like the argument the 25 point cut. The propensity for Monetary Policy to exact a response. There is an underlying concern in the markets that we are hitting the buffers of Monetary Policy. The issue is that we are asking Monetary Policy to do too much. A lot of these issues are fiscal and structural. Brexit. Monetary policy can help manage the downside risks, can take contain the current the contractionary impact. It will be an investment shock, a supply shock that is more structural than cyclical. It is more than just shortterm demand management. Central banks can help but the rest of the policy apparatus has to be brought into play than the politics are allowing four. Effect. E talk about the let us set of the highlights. Turkeys president visits his russian counterpart in st. Petersburg. Votes on thenate impeachment trial against the former president. And after the close of the u. S. , we get the earnings from disney and valeant. Coming up on countdown, Donald Trumps tax cuts. We will have the details on his economic policy. Rate time for rajans last decision. And we speak to the ceo of the. Orlds secondlargest this is bloomberg. Manus welcome back. It is countdown. Let us be generous. It is flat on the hang seng. We have a business flash. Delta Airlines Says the number of flights affected by computer failure is approaching 1000. 870cts it expects flights were canceled on monday. They warn that delays and cancellations will continue. Have reached a sevenmonth high after the company has says it cut low returning assets. The ceo also indicated that expenses for bad debt would remain steady. Reducing loans. That has dragged down return equity and forced it to return dividends since of dust for the First Time Since 2009. 36 to almost 147 Million Dollars exceeding the companys guide is. Users reached 282 million in june. Japan fair trade commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. The agency is looking into whether amazon more favorable conditions over other ecommerce companies. Barclays has agreed to pay 100 million to 44 u. S. States as a result of an investigation in interestrate manipulation. The first lender to resolve these issues. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Donald trump has laid out his plans for growth in the u. S. Darling from traditional republican ideas by proposing tax cuts and looser regulations. He told the Detroit Economic Club that he wants to simplify regulations miss and lift restrictions on the Energy Sector and he wants to lower corporate taxes. The biggest overhaul in the tax code since ronald reagan. You cannot ever start a Small Business under the tremendous Regulatory Burden that you have today in our country. We are going to end it. Cut regulations massively. Listening to donald trump , we have a great story, old republican, old story, channeling paul ryans tax cuts. What do you make of this opening salvo from him on his economic policies . He is trying to reboot the campaign and redirect the angst regarding the outbursts in the recent weeks and during the convention. So far, so good, i guess. The trouble is you have to take all of these things in totality and we do not know what the totality is yet but it sounds like the general drift is significant fiscal loosening. Tax cuts. And deregulation. All to the good in general i would say except that there are also significant increases in spending in the pipeline as well. Significant widening in the budget deficit and an increase in the budget debt therefore over a long time frame. There have been some estimates suggesting Something Like 10 trillion over 1015 years. Not just during the first donald trump term if there is one but over time, a Significant Impact on the overall stance of fiscal policy of the federal level. I think that might be quite difficult to get through congress and difficult for the markets to digest if that is what we are going to have to. A smallve microcosm here which is treasury. The white line is the estimate from the market but we are talking bucking the trend. The highest in six weeks. , thosehat rhetoric issues, what is going on in the treasury market . Are we backing up because of donald trump risks or because there has been an overplay . Of factors. Tion a general expectation that we will have a loser fiscal policy in the u. S. And other countries whether we get donald trump or clinton. That is part of that shift. And a brexit occurred and drove yields down further as you can see here in your charge. Is being reversed to some extent because the financial shock was well contained of brexit. We will see what the ultimate economic shock looks like. A combination of all of those things going on. If we step back from the particularities, we are still in a world that is oversupplied with capacity and savings. I am not sure that we will see a huge backup in treasury yields and a massive steepening. We are concerned that the duration is an issue in the bond market and there may be some steepening. But whether we are going back to significantly higher rates or not is an open question. Manus it is interesting. Would refer to as a significantly higher rate. Shifting ones thinking. From of the overall the fed, they want to keep us on our toes in terms of the next move. What propensity is at the there hikes . Two rate very limited. One rate hike in december is the outcome is what we expect. They are trying to talk up the pricing and the probability of an earlier rate hike. Making september more likely than they then it would be. Different tensions at play. I have got the u. S. Inflation expectations. This is from the new york fed. They are at the lowest in three years. Economy not a closed of i some distance but very influenced why Global Factors and you see that in the feds rhetoric and the stance of policy. Inflation expectations are not just about the u. S. If donald trump succeeds in building the wall it will cost trillions as well and constraining immigration could make Wage Inflation higher and could reverse some of this. I dont think it will happen but it is a possibility one has to take into account. Manus we didnt think brexit what happened. The indian rate decision, coming up. This is bloomberg. Manus youre looking at a glorious day in tokyo, shot there at the emperors palace. It is 6 30 a. M. In london. 1 30 in hong kong. Lets give you the r. B. I. Purchase rate unchanged at 6. 5 . The reverse repo rate at 6 unchanged and the cash reserve ratio unreason unchanged at 4 . No change at this last meeting for the governor at the central bank of india. They reiterate the upward risk on the cpi. India isprice index in in the 22 month high, 5. 77 at the moment. That repo rate at 6. 5 , that was expected. 27 out of 29 estimates we covered here. You are on a 22 month high as in terms of inflation, will the outgoing head of the r. B. I. Leave this opportunity to his successor . We have yet to find out who that is to be. ,ets cross to our colleague harsha subramaniam. Great to see you. When we talk about legacy, he has achieved a politicized nation of the role. He has achieved quite a bit on the economic front. Harsha you bet. At thebeen an Exciting Bank of england exciting at the bank of india. When he took office, the rupee was under pressure. He took a series of measures to stabilize the currency. Indias fx is 55 billion. It made india to any form of capital fight. Capital flight. He has done much to restore credibility. He played by the rules as far as r. B. I. Is concerned. The r. B. I. Was quick enough to react whenever the market required. Two important encounters in which he introduced is inflation targeting regime. Something that india was not used to. He has put in place a Monetary Policy committee. Something along the lines of the fomc. And you will be announcing its Committee Members india will be announcing its Committee Members. Contribution that the governor has made in the past year, he went against bank bad loans. He is going to clean up the Bank Balance Sheet problem, large part of it has been achieved. Last point, yes, there have been he has been outspoken on areas on Monetary Policymaking. His policy has come under criticism for being way too hawkish. Interest rates when they came down, many people argued they shouldve come down much earlier. Establishmentling felt that he was often overstepping his mandate. You. harsha, thank a very full take on the outgoing governor. Executive it is a in mumbai, harsha subramaniam. Breaking news, the secondlargest reinsurer at 974 million. This is near double the estimate of oranges 79. 1 million. 2016, they are saying they still see their target. 2. 3 billion is achievable. This is their restructuring of their prime Insurance Business in in germany. Net restructuring costs will be 160 Million Euros in the first half. Good news. Profit First Quarter, the income atprofit, net 974 million. The estimate was for 479 million. As for the rest of the details, we will break those down. 974 million, that is down from a year ago. They saw their claims bill increase in the Russian Energy<\/a> minister says there is no need for a freeze. The japanese government want views. More negative. You have got the result of a 30 year sale a little bounce in demand. Negative yield still draws of it. Dollaryen we have hit a pause button. Hedge funds cut their bullish trends on the yen to the lowest in two months. Goes it be that the yen off and the dollar goes big . Let us get the bloomberg first word news. Donald trump has laid out his plan for growth in the u. S. Pulling from traditional republican ideas like tax cuts. He told the Detroit Economic Club<\/a> he wanted to simplify excessive business regulations and lift restrictions on the Energy Sector<\/a>. He wants lower corporate taxes. Start a smallever business under the tremendous Regulatory Burden<\/a> that you have today in our country. We are going to end it. Regulationso cut massively. England policymaker says the policy that says the central bank should follow a gradual approach in response to brexit. If the u. K. Economy slows, he believes that more easing is likely to be required. Meanwhile, u. K. Consumers put aside any brexit anxiety to one side in july as warmer weather boosted demand for food, drink, and clothing. Sales is theth in most since january. Oganish president erd visits st. Petersburg to rebuild relations with russia. Ago, president pugh tins called turkeys downing of a russian fighter on the Syrian Border<\/a> a step in the back. In japan, the fair trade commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. The agency is looking into whether there was a deal for sellers that gave more favorable conditions over other ecommerce companies. Delta airlines said the number of flights disrupted by the computer failure is approaching 1000. Commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. They expect more than 100 services to be hedged this morning after having canceled many flights yesterday. The delays and cancellations will continue even as the systems come back online. Global news, 20 47 each day. 24 hours each day. This is bloomberg. Us talk about those asian markets. I mentioned the msci is pacing ahead. At gains. Are looking not as much as we saw on monday but we are still seeing decent gains, especially across the more developed markets like australia, and south korea. Japan is doing the heavy lifting. 0. 75 . Up roughly dataave bits and pieces of i know you will talk about the china data but very encouraging set of numbers out of china. Then you factors may have some more pricing power. Than 30, in less minutes, we get the rpi r. B. I. Position. The last meeting he will preside over. No changes expected there. Speaking a Central Banks<\/a>, let us look at what is happening in the fx markets. Malaysian ringgit. We are seeing some weakness coming through when it comes to the aussie dollar and kiwi dollar. Taking rates down to 1 within the next year. More rate cuts. Kiwi dollar the here. Let me get that up quickly. 100 at the function cutsbility that the rbm rates on thursday to a new record low. Manus let us break down the data from china. We have our chief asia economics expert. Standing by in hong kong. Some good news to every central banker in the world. They must be kicking back great. Good morning. Certainly in china, we are potentially seeing a turning point. One of the big drags on chinas economy has been falling prices at the factory gates. We are seeing that decline at its slowest pace in two years. There are some suggestions that we could inch into positive territory. There is one qualifier prices arecertainly in china, we are potentially seeing a turning point. Improving not because china butackling access supply, it is more a reflection in the pickup in Commodity Prices<\/a> like oil and iron ore that china is importing. We could see easing of deflationary pressure is of chinas factory but that does not mean much for the global disinflation or low inflation story. Positivess, it is a for chinas economy. The hint that the destabilization story is continuing. Manus the next couple of days. Over the coming days they are expected to confirm stabilization. If nothing else. That is what we are hoping for in terms of the growth trajectory. That narrative seems to be in place at the moment. We are seeing stabilization on all of the data. Reserves on the weak and. End. We had trade numbers yesterday not great but not a rapid deterioration either. We have industrial numbers coming up this weekend. And the credit aggregate numbers will be coming. When we look at these numbers like retail sales, we talk about ppi. They all point to the economy finding a floor which is better than where we were last year when there was can trouble on t as to where the economy when there was considerable uncertainty as to where the economy was going. Willingexporters are back to life and the importers want to talk in all of the commodities that they cant and here is a growth driver for the global economy. There is still a relative slowing. All indications are that the transition will take some time to complete. That is why we are seeing. Olicymakers continue to lean no sign of a dramatic turnaround for the chinese economy anytime soon. Manus a very sobering take on the data. Guest, anna,in my the head of emerging market macro. Always good to have you with us. He burst my enthusiasm. Ave got it for you here inflation data. This is the white line, that is the inflation data. The underlying tenor is iron ore and oil. He would maintain this boost in the manufacturing prices is not having anything to with tackling the factory. Credit is going quite strongly in china and the with much less Global Impact<\/a> has been depreciating against the dollar. Not only are some of the underlying Commodity Prices<\/a> other than oil going up but they are importing inflation through the Exchange Rate<\/a> against the commodities and the dollar generally and the multipliers are working once again. And the market is not so worried about it because the problem of the credit, for the time being, or the problem of the Exchange Rate<\/a> or the combination has been bottled up through capital controls and much less risk of an event such as a big devaluation. Isus that risk of and event what they want to a boy in terms of the currency. In terms of the reserves they were tempered better. Will most Central Banks<\/a> sleep more easily . The biggest move into decades. Will Central Banks<\/a> sleep more easily because of this data they are seeing from china . Reducing the event risk is always good. The trouble is of course the underlying issues continue. The economy is rebalancing which means it is slowing down. And the export of deflationary pressure from china and other places through the rest of the world through the surplus and cheaper currency all of that continues. If i were a central bank are i would sleep more easily what not that long but not that long. Manus the s p 500. The relationship. This time last year, we were in a syncopated move. Wen that dying went the economy. Is it good credit . Is it the good form of credit . And when will they deal with their overcapacity . Front, there is always a distribution. Some of this is undoubtedly good stuff going on plus the economy continues to rebalance towards services. Against that, there is an overcapacity problem which they plan to deal with by supplyside reforms. Plus, some of the credit is probably going into more overcapacity. Some is going into more credit because credit growth the credit itself is being capitalized and a lot of the data is just being refinanced. That is why they need a bigger and bigger credit impulse to get the same output response in gdp. Every central bankers issue at the moment. It is like the argument the 25 point cut. The propensity for Monetary Policy<\/a> to exact a response. There is an underlying concern in the markets that we are hitting the buffers of Monetary Policy<\/a>. The issue is that we are asking Monetary Policy<\/a> to do too much. A lot of these issues are fiscal and structural. Brexit. Monetary policy can help manage the downside risks, can take contain the current the contractionary impact. It will be an investment shock, a supply shock that is more structural than cyclical. It is more than just shortterm demand management. Central banks can help but the rest of the policy apparatus has to be brought into play than the politics are allowing four. Effect. E talk about the let us set of the highlights. Turkeys president visits his russian counterpart in st. Petersburg. Votes on thenate impeachment trial against the former president. And after the close of the u. S. , we get the earnings from disney and valeant. Coming up on countdown, Donald Trumps<\/a> tax cuts. We will have the details on his economic policy. Rate time for rajans last decision. And we speak to the ceo of the. Orlds secondlargest this is bloomberg. Manus welcome back. It is countdown. Let us be generous. It is flat on the hang seng. We have a business flash. Delta Airlines Says<\/a> the number of flights affected by computer failure is approaching 1000. 870cts it expects flights were canceled on monday. They warn that delays and cancellations will continue. Have reached a sevenmonth high after the company has says it cut low returning assets. The ceo also indicated that expenses for bad debt would remain steady. Reducing loans. That has dragged down return equity and forced it to return dividends since of dust for the First Time Since<\/a> 2009. 36 to almost 147 Million Dollars<\/a> exceeding the companys guide is. Users reached 282 million in june. Japan fair trade commission. According to a person with knowledge of the matter. The agency is looking into whether amazon more favorable conditions over other ecommerce companies. Barclays has agreed to pay 100 million to 44 u. S. States as a result of an investigation in interestrate manipulation. The first lender to resolve these issues. That is your Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash. Donald trump has laid out his plans for growth in the u. S. Darling from traditional republican ideas by proposing tax cuts and looser regulations. He told the Detroit Economic Club<\/a> that he wants to simplify regulations miss and lift restrictions on the Energy Sector<\/a> and he wants to lower corporate taxes. The biggest overhaul in the tax code since ronald reagan. You cannot ever start a Small Business<\/a> under the tremendous Regulatory Burden<\/a> that you have today in our country. We are going to end it. Cut regulations massively. Listening to donald trump , we have a great story, old republican, old story, channeling paul ryans tax cuts. What do you make of this opening salvo from him on his economic policies . He is trying to reboot the campaign and redirect the angst regarding the outbursts in the recent weeks and during the convention. So far, so good, i guess. The trouble is you have to take all of these things in totality and we do not know what the totality is yet but it sounds like the general drift is significant fiscal loosening. Tax cuts. And deregulation. All to the good in general i would say except that there are also significant increases in spending in the pipeline as well. Significant widening in the budget deficit and an increase in the budget debt therefore over a long time frame. There have been some estimates suggesting Something Like<\/a> 10 trillion over 1015 years. Not just during the first donald trump term if there is one but over time, a Significant Impact<\/a> on the overall stance of fiscal policy of the federal level. I think that might be quite difficult to get through congress and difficult for the markets to digest if that is what we are going to have to. A smallve microcosm here which is treasury. The white line is the estimate from the market but we are talking bucking the trend. The highest in six weeks. , thosehat rhetoric issues, what is going on in the treasury market . Are we backing up because of donald trump risks or because there has been an overplay . Of factors. Tion a general expectation that we will have a loser fiscal policy in the u. S. And other countries whether we get donald trump or clinton. That is part of that shift. And a brexit occurred and drove yields down further as you can see here in your charge. Is being reversed to some extent because the financial shock was well contained of brexit. We will see what the ultimate economic shock looks like. A combination of all of those things going on. If we step back from the particularities, we are still in a world that is oversupplied with capacity and savings. I am not sure that we will see a huge backup in treasury yields and a massive steepening. We are concerned that the duration is an issue in the bond market and there may be some steepening. But whether we are going back to significantly higher rates or not is an open question. Manus it is interesting. Would refer to as a significantly higher rate. Shifting ones thinking. From of the overall the fed, they want to keep us on our toes in terms of the next move. What propensity is at the there hikes . Two rate very limited. One rate hike in december is the outcome is what we expect. They are trying to talk up the pricing and the probability of an earlier rate hike. Making september more likely than they then it would be. Different tensions at play. I have got the u. S. Inflation expectations. This is from the new york fed. They are at the lowest in three years. Economy not a closed of i some distance but very influenced why Global Factors<\/a> and you see that in the feds rhetoric and the stance of policy. Inflation expectations are not just about the u. S. If donald trump succeeds in building the wall it will cost trillions as well and constraining immigration could make Wage Inflation<\/a> higher and could reverse some of this. I dont think it will happen but it is a possibility one has to take into account. Manus we didnt think brexit what happened. The indian rate decision, coming up. This is bloomberg. Manus youre looking at a glorious day in tokyo, shot there at the emperors palace. It is 6 30 a. M. In london. 1 30 in hong kong. Lets give you the r. B. I. Purchase rate unchanged at 6. 5 . The reverse repo rate at 6 unchanged and the cash reserve ratio unreason unchanged at 4 . No change at this last meeting for the governor at the central bank of india. They reiterate the upward risk on the cpi. India isprice index in in the 22 month high, 5. 77 at the moment. That repo rate at 6. 5 , that was expected. 27 out of 29 estimates we covered here. You are on a 22 month high as in terms of inflation, will the outgoing head of the r. B. I. Leave this opportunity to his successor . We have yet to find out who that is to be. ,ets cross to our colleague harsha subramaniam. Great to see you. When we talk about legacy, he has achieved a politicized nation of the role. He has achieved quite a bit on the economic front. Harsha you bet. At thebeen an Exciting Bank<\/a> of england exciting at the bank of india. When he took office, the rupee was under pressure. He took a series of measures to stabilize the currency. Indias fx is 55 billion. It made india to any form of capital fight. Capital flight. He has done much to restore credibility. He played by the rules as far as r. B. I. Is concerned. The r. B. I. Was quick enough to react whenever the market required. Two important encounters in which he introduced is inflation targeting regime. Something that india was not used to. He has put in place a Monetary Policy<\/a> committee. Something along the lines of the fomc. And you will be announcing its Committee Members<\/a> india will be announcing its Committee Members<\/a>. Contribution that the governor has made in the past year, he went against bank bad loans. He is going to clean up the Bank Balance Sheet<\/a> problem, large part of it has been achieved. Last point, yes, there have been he has been outspoken on areas on Monetary Policy<\/a>making. His policy has come under criticism for being way too hawkish. Interest rates when they came down, many people argued they shouldve come down much earlier. Establishmentling felt that he was often overstepping his mandate. You. harsha, thank a very full take on the outgoing governor. Executive it is a in mumbai, harsha subramaniam. Breaking news, the secondlargest reinsurer at 974 million. This is near double the estimate of oranges 79. 1 million. 2016, they are saying they still see their target. 2. 3 billion is achievable. This is their restructuring of their prime Insurance Business<\/a> in in germany. Net restructuring costs will be 160 Million Euros<\/a> in the first half. Good news. Profit First Quarter<\/a>, the income atprofit, net 974 million. The estimate was for 479 million. As for the rest of the details, we will break those down. 974 million, that is down from a year ago. They saw their claims bill increase in the Second Quarter<\/a> with losses, five in canada. The industry losses from natural disasters, in line with the tenyear average for the First Six Months<\/a> of the year. Those natural catastrophes are the things one cannot plan for. I am going to have a conversation with the chief , nikolaus voncer bomhard. He is good to join me at the 7 15 london time your he also says the annual earnings will include one billion euros of restructuring lands for virgo which is the german business. What do they think of the bond markets . Munich three, you start to understand where their assets are. They tell you how much of the Government Bond<\/a> curves of western europe are invested their. The challenge in the zero world. Daybreak, it is now available on your mobile and your bloomberg. You want to press the ayp go. If i move swiftly enough, i will get you the front cover of daybreak. It is like tv. The director is being generous. Bacon and eggs. I love the story. When the going gets tough, the brits go shopping. Eggs. S and that is what they have gone shopping for. Warm weather has boosted the demand for barbecues food. It may have been brief but it but it wasview. A preview of the Industrial Outlook<\/a> figures at 9 30 today. The reality of the pound is down for the first time the longest losing streak on the pound since may of this year. Wedding rate cut with more quantitative easing on the way. The dated today of course will be just the data today the. 1 . Today last month it was down by. 5 . Finally, it cannot be daybreak without trump. Laying out his plan for growth in the u. S. Moodys says a halfmillion jobs could be lost could be lost. Moodys says his plan taken at face value that everything it shines upon. Trumponomics Caroline Hyde<\/a> has woken up in berlin. She is going to give us her take. Good morning. Caroline every good morning to you. We have seen the stock market to let. Asian stocks tracking higher. The stabilization that this chart shows, deflation 47 straight for a seventh straight month. We could start to see the end of deflation insight. It check on the terminal where we are seeing this track in terms of the deflationary effects we have seen in china. We are seeing it at 1. 7 . That is not the 2 that had been expected. The smallest decline in two years. This helps bolster revenue of the manufacturers, it up some pay down debt and boosted wages. To safetyl a flight going on when you look at the chinese bond yields . The chinese bond yields tracking significant lows. 2. 742 . Is this a search of safety from the chinese . Is this the flight desire for yields from Foreign Investors<\/a> . 2. 74 in shanghai is the lowest we have seen in seven months for chinese yields. Interesting moves in chinese markets. If youre a foreign buyer japanese buyer of bonds, sovereign bonds, you should check out where you should be pretty should be in italy. That this beautiful chart showing where money is being put to work. It is too expensive to hedge your u. S. Treasuries. To much demand for u. S. Dollar. Look it that, in the red line japanese bonds get you negative yields. And the purple, its a barely anything. Three basis points. Italy, how desirous is that, 1. 2 yields. Italy is the place. Manus. Manus caroline, they can hear you cheerleading. Well see you a little later. Highestfallen from its Closing Price<\/a> in two weeks. Bloomberg markets middle east anchor, yousef gamal eldin joins us. Use of what is going on in the oil market. Yousef, what is going on in the oil market . That having an impact on the oil market, but a lot of talk as well. We are not going to see anything. There is not going to be an agreement. The track record is not there. The reality is there doesnt need to be an agreement for you to be able to control the market or influence the market, because if you take a look at what happened this year. I put this up on a chart where you can easily lit up on your bloomberg i have highlighted for you the first time around we had the talks in doha. That did not bring in an agreement. You can see oil prices, wti rallied from their. You moved to your circle in green. Your former opec meeting on june 2. That happened, no formal agreement, nothing tangible to go with. Oil prices still held up fairly well. You see the slide 20 down from the july high all the way to that red zone that i have highlighted. That is your bear market. At the moment, what the consensus appears to be from the analysts we are talking to is yes, there is unlikely to be an agreement, but opec making a move to try and talk of the thereecause there have a track record of working in the past. The russians dont see a need for any changes in terms of the free stocks. We are watching to see what the iranians are going to say, because they have recovered most of their presanctions oil production. Maybe there could be a change on that front. You do thatth of every day at the gym. Manus absolutely. Every day at the gym. Eldinl yousef gamal joining us. Rbisision has been made in and rbis has appointed patcher to the committee. No new government governor announced just yet. One of the first names to go on the Monetary Policy<\/a> committee, a to be the r. B. I. Little more news on india. A few lines come through. All of that is from Invesco Asset<\/a> management. No change in the rate, 6. 5 . Inflation is run is running at its fastest. Foreign investment in the blue line. Rally. S sparked this he had this brexit vote. People buying india, that buyers and stocks, the longest streak since 2014 in terms of the debt holdings. This is a market that is on fire. How on fire is it for you . We have long been invested in india. We have a domestic investment manager in dubai in by in mumbai. India is quite important to us. What i would say is there has been a lot of good stuff as you say, the recommitment to Fiscal Consolidation<\/a> of the federal level. It will help integrate the Indian States<\/a> as far as trade. Manus that seems to be one of the most significant news moments for modi. Arnab there was a lot of hype over the campaign arnab there was a lot of hype over the campaign. The reality of politics and now he has gotten the reform show back on the road. The gst quite important because that is taken a decade to get done. It is not complete done yet but the next step should be more technical with less political resistance. A very positive the moment. Against that, the Inflation Trajectory<\/a> is probably over for now. The break easing cycle is probably coming to an end. This whole today, maybe there is room for one more rate cut if inflation starts to fall again at some point. Monsoon is better than has been the case. I think if we step back from all of these particular keys of the cyclical on inflation, the good iss is the departure of jean not proving to be much of a shock because it changes are being institutionalized. The government has committed to the inflation target, theres the mpc coming through. For me, the longtime skeptic on my native country, i am quite pleased to see all of these modernizing the relevance. Manus we will leave it there. At Invesco Asset<\/a> management. Thank you for joining us. Coming up on the shell, we will speak to the cio of Global Equities<\/a>. Signs of stabilization in chinas factory deflation that eases good we discussed the state of the worlds secondlargest economy. We have a conversation with the ceo of the worlds reassure. Gest this is bloomberg. Manus it is the city that never sleeps, 1 49 a. M. In new york. 121. Es are flat, Global Equities<\/a> making when youre highs. Asian shares declined to a 12 month chinese inflation data, signs of stabilization. Global equities at the highest in almost a year. Buoyed by strong economic data. The improving economy will encourage the fed to raise rates sooner. Finally good news is good for markets. The last interview we did as we were walking outcome he said i have to look at opportunities. Ive got to find opportunities. Emboldenedeems to be. These equity markets are emboldened it are you . Lucy the interesting thing about last month, the markets what is happened is the market has been strong but led by defensive areas. And large oil. Gold. Really a bullish kind of environment. Underneath, it is been pretty defensive. Last month your that technology coming through more. Some of the results have come through. Yet seems all caps perform better. In value. That is quite different environment. More risk on environment which is really what you want. Manus when you look at some of the dont like bonds, stocks, private equity. Nothing looks good. You said the past four weeks, this shift has been a slight capitulation. Is it all down to a slower fed and more stimulus from everybody else. Lucy it is definitely the monetary environment. You are right to say i dont like the look of anything because everything looks quite expensive. It does look quite expensive because of where Interest Rates<\/a> are. You can see everything. You can make it that is very uncomfortable the cause it is not going to last forever. Manus nothing lasts forever. This comes down to valuation. Profits falling to the fifth consecutive quarter on the s p 500. Again, that would unnerve murray unnerve me in terms of where to put a dollar in your. How do you look at that . Lucy there are signs that it is slightly improving in revenue. Obviously over the last year, you have had Energy Materials<\/a> four global earnings. You take them out of the picture any look at what is happening with revenue. Manus that is what we have got here. You say we look at you say we look at the growth function in the currencies and if you take if you take out growth, this demonstrates what you say which is the energy component. What you strip the energy out which is been the end which is been the derby lizzie could that is a rather impressive function. Where did you find that lucy that is a rather impressive function. Where did you find that . Manus is oil bond out . Oil has at this doubling. It seems to have found the place where supply are balanced. Manus you are ok. They want talk to me about volatility. Is it atility chart twoyear low desk is at a twoyear low. Is at a twoyear low. That makes me nervous about markets. Weve got a convention, fed and a number of other i havent started on global risk. What does that volatility chart say to you . Lucy the more risk on environment, just really in the last month, so that sits very well with having more risk assets. Ou are right in the shortterm, it doesnt make you want to buy more. Manus your hitting the pause button. We got a new addition. And new addition of bloomberg markets. Tidjane thiam is on the cover. Desperate to tell is more about it is francine lacqua. To tell us more about it is francine lacqua. Francine he has been on the job for 13 months. We talked about strategy and the challenges. I wanted to get to the bottom of how people were receiving his strategy. If you look at the share price, it has gone down 50 . There is a point when he stopped the interview and he got to share price out and he said look at this, it is on a downward trend. Manus so much it has dropped out of the stoxx 600. Francine he says i cannot have done this on my own because it was on a downward trajectory. When you are in charge, you do need a bit of time. This was part of his defense in saying the Second Quarter<\/a> was better than expected. I did a profit but it will be painful and he is trying to do you risk it. He is trying to the risk it. Manus ethic a lot of it as well is of the climate. If you think is i think a lot of it as well is the climate. They give him time but the market is much less patient in terms of delivery. What were the figures . Francine i was asking him did he studied the job. His biggest regret he says he doesnt have any he wants to. Eave the bank in better shape if you want to be the savior of credit suisse. He says i just want to leave the company in better shape. Deeans higher capital, risking it. ,anus the day he took over addressing in french and german you have known them for a long time standard futures for him is a leader as well. Francine he has been taken to task for being very competitive it if you want to succeed, youetitive is something want to be seen. He stood up to ship he apologized to shareholders. He says they will get their because he sees value in the bank. Manus hold that thought it will pick it up hold that thought. We will pick it up. Up next, we are going to talk china. This is bloomberg. Manus signs of stabilization and chinas factory gate inflation eases for the seventh straight month, nearly improving conditions for the worlds secondlargest economy. Asian shares trade near a oneyear high. Barbecues beat brexit, a hot july boost demand for food. Policymakersngland in mccafferty says more easing is likely to be required if the u. K. Economy slows in line with service signals. Trump talks tax. The rebel can a president ial nominee says his vision for the return of the u. S. Economy to its glory days. Manus you are welcome. It is countdown. Lets get to breaking news on legal and general. First half profit after tax comes in at 667 million pounds. 22 on last year. Earnings for sure up 14 at 11. 2 pence. Return on equity. The banks saw this, they would be in shock, 20. 4 . Every turn on equity 20. 4 a return on equity at 20. 4 . Adjusted operating profits rise by 10 . 18 and weets are up will have the composition in terms of where to go in the zero Interest Rate<\/a> world. And for such a spending, we wave the flag for that. Nigel wilson joins guy and caroline at 8 30 a. M. London time. That conversation is to be had in terms of what happens. Legal and general cannot be immune to the uncertainty. These are lines coming from wilson later. Stay tuned for that conversation it features a higher good Global Equities<\/a> hit a oneyear high. Asian and these rocket out. Rock it out. An eighth could that is hardly what you call will bid. Taking a frankfurt momentary breather in terms of the opening calls at the moment. No great indication in terms of the direction of legal in general. Legal and general. Dollar yen is closing. Lets have a look at the risk radar could you have the equity story. 7 . Is down by freeze, the russians say you do not need a freeze. They are not in the business of needing to renewed discussion. If minister on opec says recent that broke you say between 8 00 a. M. And 9 00 a. M. Japanese Government Bond<\/a> yields, they go, you got those turning around the cousin what you have in terms of jgb, we have an auction of 30 year Government Bond<\/a> yields. They are doing a bid to cover ratios up from a oneyear low. That is buying of jg. The dollar yen has had its biggest twoday decline in four weeks. We are risk on inequities. Yen went hedge funds have cut their positions. At aowest in two months for the next big move on dollar yen. Lets have a look at the bond markets. Are these bond markets what is safe that go what is safe back of that is one of the question what is safe yet go what is safe . German bund 0. 7 . Lets get a bloomberg first word news. Rosalind chin is with me today. Rosalind in the Us Central Bank<\/a> has left Interest Rates<\/a> unchanged as vices push inflation above the nations target. The rate will stay at a aseyear low of 6. 5 predicted by 27 of 29 economists in a bluebird survey. In a bloomberg survey. A successor is yet to be named. Donald trump has made up his plan for growth in the u. S. Following some traditional republican ideas. Sanctions on the Energy Sector<\/a> and he says he wants lower corporate taxes. Start a smallever business under the tremendous Regulatory Burden<\/a> you have today in our country. [applause] going to end it. Regulationso cut massively. Policymakerngland says Central Banks<\/a> should follow a gradual approach and how it responds to brexit. Writing in the times newspaper, he says if the u. K. Economy slows the line with the initial service signals, he believes or easing is ugly to be acquired. Is likely to be acquired. Warmer weather boosted demand for bob hughes, and summer clothing for barbecue and summer clothing. The growth in sales was the most was the most since january. One president at a president erdogan meets bond mirror meets vladimir putin. Nine months ago, putin called the russian downing of a the turkish downing of a russian jet delta Airlines Says<\/a> the approachingights is is approaching a thousand head thousand. It is warning that delays and cancellations will continue even as a systems come back online. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Im rosalind chin. This is bloomberg. Manus rosalind, thank you very much. David ingles is standing by. David, it has this it is just come off the boil. That is how i would look at these markets. David just a little bit and you compare it to what we saw on monday. It is a level of buying volumes are not at the level we saw at the beginning of the week. Were looking at a fair to moderate case of gains. Check it all the way back to thursday. Another encouraging part is the markets are today is you have several pockets of these markets still looking to retest these recent highs. First week of august, once we get past that, it takes you overall back to above last year. The benchmark is very near it is a most academic. It is thanks to the resurgence we are seeing in japan, up. 1 . Volumes not exactly the busiest of trading days. The story in the bond market, we are seeing yields come down across asia. The japanese 10 year, you talked about the 30 year. Bonds are on the way up to it have a look at what is happening in the fx market. One story i want to point out. When we talk about the inflows into asia, taiwan dollar, that is a oneyear high for the currency against the u. S. Dollar. 31. 42. This equity market is attracting the most influences. Over 12 billion. Not exactly the best thing for a country that is basically reliant on exports. Past ity, just having ae we are decent hand over asia. America david, thank you. The very latest from manus david, thank you. The very latest on the markets. Marcus got he joins us now. Some good news. Is that what i take away from the ppi . Ago, marcus a year ago, this was falling back. It is still in negative territory but that territory is clawing its way out of a deep zone. It was down by 1. 7 in july from a year earlier. Still four years of factory deflation. They could end as soon as this year. That has repercussions around the world because china is the worlds biggest exporter. If some of this moderating deflation at a factory level in china moderates, you can see some of this moderates and spread throughout the world because of chinas export pros. Improving Commodity Prices<\/a> so we really need some sustained trends, pricing powder to come back to chinas factories. The worst is behind us but to say china is moving to some sort of inflationary picture. Manus it is good to see a little bit more than a couple of suites to convince the market of that. We have a number of data points coming in. That is expected to show stability. That is the word we are looking for, rather than anything going out on the upside. Malcolm stability is the buzzword around china. We have seen it over the weekend with the fx reserve. We have seen it in the pricing levels. The ppi fairly stable and getting better. On friday we get a industrial production. That is expected to come around the 6 market, fairly steady from the month earlier. Expecting retail sales around the same after 10. 5 . We are expecting investment to rise 9 and again in line with what we have been seeing so far this year. The latest we have gathered at the seaside resort. Who knows what they are talking about . Stabilityop is one of after they stepped in with increased support. There managed to underpin growth they have managed to underpin growth. Manus i am quite happy to hear stability coming from china. Malcolm scott in hong kong. Mey macdonald is with stability seems to be the word that is coming up. The question is how do you look of it istick lack bolstered uptick . T is bolted by iron ore is that a fair representation . Lucy that was back to the distortion that the oil and commodity has handled everything. Difficult tot more interpret statistics everywhere. It is not the easiest thing to interpret. It makes it even more conjugated. Even more complicated. We are going to continue to see this skill picture in china. You have a series of bigmoney cycles. We will continue to see because the structural issues are there and reform are going. O remain in place the speed of reform seems to decelerate it. Decelerated. , a fiscal response and monetary spots to it. Monetary response to it. [indiscernible] on top of that, we also have another area of uncertainty which is what is happening with politics. Some of the institutions that we used to try to get the message from like to pboc, the message from that as we found with the currency is no longer as clear as they were because the decisions are being made elsewhere. Manus that trajectory of the yuan and the s p 500 and dollar. Ou want the dollar yuan the biggest drop in two decades. The biggest adjustment. Those other frightening moments in markets that perhaps cause the biggest challenge. Look at the divergence that is happening now between dollar yuan and the s p 500. That relationship, we are left flexed and obsessed either were left perplexed and obsessed. Lucy it was a huge shock around this time last year. It led to a lot of concern about 20 devaluation of a lack of control within china. Because of the size of china, this stability is very important. The measures they are doing to try and control and produce is helpful as far as reverse volatility is concerned. Since that point, the market seems to have relaxed as it often does. Graduallowing and devaluation without too much oncern. Manus the yuan is at the lowest level in two years. How much emerging market risk do you want to take if we take the fed . The fed you reckon, one hike this year . Is e. M. Linked to that . Lucy yes. E. M. Is linked to u. S. Policy, just because of the amount of debt. That is inevitable. Into china and we have spoken about that. China is a relatively stable and certainly compared to what is been happening in europe. That has now been reflected in a more devaluation. Elsewhere it is to do with commodities. Destabilization we have seen a commodities is manus youre not going to give me a call without getting a line on trumponomics. Never a dull day. Trumponomics is fiscal responsible the or irresponsibility . Lucy with a budget deficit with the size is not particularly responsible. But you are trying to keep your growth growing. We support Equity Investors<\/a> but i think you have to take account the way it is still rising. Manus you do you think that at markets would go to a shudder shaking . Potentially a recession of 3. 5 million jobs if the pound is taken at face value at the moment. Speculation. Ust the uncertainty as we know is what we dont like. By the time we get to the election, will have a better bea of what the bonds might because it looks most likely he will let have he will have a divided government. Manus lucy macdonald, thank you for joining us this morning. Up next, despite disasters, munich re beat expectations that we speak to the ceo next. This is bloomberg. Manus welcome back. Is it is a glorious day in london not so glorious for the pound, down 45th day in a row. There is a fly buzzing around on our camera. There. F fs lets get to Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash with a meaningless standing by. With david ingles standing by. David starting things off with delta airlines. The number of flights disrupted by computer failure is approaching 1000. The experiment test the care expects it is already townsend it is warning that the latest cancellations will continue until things come back online. Aares of anz bank have hit seven month high in sydney. That is after the Company Listed<\/a> capital and returned assets. Most asia focused at lender has been reducing loans and capital in asia that is dragged down the turn inequity and forced to cut dividends for the First Time Since<\/a> 2009. Second quarter revenue that rose 36 on year to almost 147 million. That exceeded the companys own guidance. Of barclays has agreed to pay 100 million to 44 u. S. States to resolve an investigation into Interest Rate<\/a> manipulation. Federal state probes into submissions that inflated whirling costs linked to london and the u. S. Bank rates. That is your Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash. Manus david, thank you very much. Munich re has reported Second Quarter<\/a> net income. It was better than expectations despite the Worlds Largest<\/a> second worlds secondlargest reinsurer. We are joined by the ceo of munich re, nikolaus von bomhard. Thank you for joining us, nikolaus. A very comfortable beat on the net income despite what is a tough world. I understand that despite what is a tough world. I understand that you sold some bonds. Are you a little more upbeat about the outlook in the 0 interest world as it stands . Nikolaus we are on the cautious side concerning what is going on in the markets, because the uncertainty is all around us. Central banks rather look like they would rather expand Monetary Policy<\/a> and build more liquidity than cutting back so far. There will be difficult for Interest Rates<\/a>, even though inflation will sooner or later start to go up. Manus sooner or later start to go up. Lets talk about those markets. I understand you sold some fixed income to help offset some of the higher claims. What was the purpose of that . Where did you sell . What was it . Western europe . What bonds did you sell . Nikolaus the reason behind all of that was not to support the Second Quarter<\/a> the First Quarter<\/a> was exactly the opposite of our second. For our investment returns, the first was very weak. This time it was the other way around. Towards the end of the quarter with all of the uncertainty, including brexit, and election in spain, we took some risk off and have sold bonds and we lowered some, including germany bonds, and western europe. It was about diversification. We should not read too much into our action here. Manus the whole world is focused on what you do and what other institutions do with bonds. Bonds youhink think Interest Rate<\/a> for come back. If the city bikes are ready to do more, were seeing this way of negative bond yields. How safe is safe . How concerned are you about what didnt european how concerned are you about european bond markets . Nikolaus we are quite concerned. The markets are very trite in some parts of the market, talking about covered bonds, there is not much material out there to default. It makes the life of investors difficult. Corporate bonds are being acquired now. Interest rates come down. 12 trillion bonds with negative Interest Rates<\/a>. That makes it difficult for investors try and match the liabilities. Insurers being among them. That is the only answer to that, less inflation growth kicks in which we think it will. For the time being, the only answer to that environment is diversification. Yet to be almost everywhere, region wise. Manus lets talk about diversification and the pound is down on a trade weighted basis. Is the u. K. More of interest to you . Commercial properties down. Are you looking at the u. K. As an opportunity . Nikolaus we do not change much. We were a little before the brexit. We were not really as about the result of the brexit. It helped us in the Second Quarter<\/a> result. We are neutral. Were not shifting all around. If the real estate markets coming down further, we would look into those as well. We are neither putting more money in right now or are we pulling out. It is a sideway movement. Manus sideway move, nikolaus. It is great to have you with us. Lets see with the rest of the year bring for you rest of year brings for you. Nikolaus von bomhard, the ceo of the munich re. He says the company was a little short of the pound going into brexit. That is it for countdown. On the move its up next. Guy welcome to on the move. We are cap you down to the european open we are counting you down to the european open. Here is what we are watching. Riskoff, legal and general says it cannot be immune to current uncertainty but these estimates. We speak to ceo nigel wilson. Decision leftate rates unchanged but will his yet to be named successor have to act sooner . 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