Countdown, everybody. I am anna edwards. Manus i am manus cranny. Stanley fischer talking yesterday about are we more than one and done . Anna a big question, really fascinated about negative Interest Rates as well, such a profile internationally in central banking circles talking about how negative rates seem to be working elsewhere, even know theyre not on the table in the u. S. Pointing out that that will be of interest, but what is of interest to the treasury market in particular is the hawkish commentary we have seen. Manus and it is just a flow, the middle of the curve has had the worst month since last year. We should look at the very short end, twoyear Government Bond yields in the red, never far from the work function is anna edwards. What you have here is the probability of a rate hike, twoyear bond yield in the red, twoyear yields are having the worst august since last november. The yield curve itself, two years versus 30 is the narrowest since 2008, and this part of the yield curve is up by 15 basis points. Definitely come as one of the commentators was saying a dangerous zone, Consumer Confidence in the u. S. Rising, adding fuel to this debate of more than one and done from Stanley Fischer. Anna anna let us bring up the risk radar, various Asset Classes overnight, general Asian Session fairly positive come up by 3 10 of 1 on the msci Asian Pacific area emerging markets down by 1 10 the 1 . We have nymex crude fairly flat, many Asset Classes not going anywhere very fast overnight it seems. In terms of the majors, this is overnight, increasing for the biggest monthly gain since april. Algeria very much in focus. Old in there as well. Manus if you look at gold, a very rare august. Down 3 overall, the first august we have seen a decline to 131 . At the moment, the commodity moves are inextricably linked to the movement in the dollar. That Stronger Movement in the dollar has got repercussions all the way around. That would be the first august since 2009 that we could actually see a loss. Anna definitely a backtoschool feeling, the political story today from france, spain. We will bring all that into the conversation. And we have a lot of data and headlines on unemployment and inflation. Let us to the bloomberg first word news. Here is Rosalind Chin. Rosalind Goldman Sachs is said to have lost 1. 8 billion dollar property deal, according to those familiar with the matter, the Investment Bank was the original wehner of the u. S. Real estate sale, before the transaction fell apart amid a disagreement. That led flex go to prevail with a deal. And it will proceed with the purchase assets worth 450 million. Representatives for Goldman Sachs declined to comment. The uk Prime Minister marks the end of summer today as she gathers cabinet ministers and top officials at her country residence. Negotiator david davis has so far chosen not to flinch out the public details of what they will seek in breaking from the eu, how are they will still face pressures from colleagues and executives to define what really made news when she said brexit means brexit. Consumers seem to have cash burning holes in their pockets, showing some eagerness to spend after an initial postbrexit wobble. Household Confidence Index dropped in august, regaining half of the losses. The second week that Shows Consumers are recovering from the initial shock in june to leave the eu. Donald trump has said he will travel to mexico today for a private meeting with the president. Invitations have been sent to both the donald trump and Hillary Clinton campaign to meet with the mexican president. Meanwhile, donald trump is also due to deliver a speech in phoenix, expected to lay out his proposal on immigration after weeks of conflicting reports about whether he is moderating on the issue. Has beenry clinton given 30 days to provide written answers 225 questions stemming from her use of a private email server during her time as u. S. Secretary of state. Among the questions the democratic nominee has been asked to explain our why and how the private email system was created and when she decided to use it for official business . The list has been drawn up by the Watchdog Group judicial watch, under a federal judge. Mobile news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. You can find more on the bloomberg at top. I am Rosalind Chin. This is bloomberg. Manus roslind, february much. 1. 5 percent, what happens next . There is one man that can tell us about it. David ingles is standing by. David . David thanks, guys. When we talk about the japanese market, before i get to my equity map here, a lot of this comes down to the move and dollaryen. I mean, just hole,ed to prejackson this is where we are at the moment. Trading at about the 103, very hard to decipher at the moment how much of this comes down to, i guess, speculative trade. Keep in mind, we are at 110, will be typically get a spike in demand for u. S. Dollars in japanese corporate. And there we go. 103 at the moment. One thing i want to note before the equity markets, we are getting lines from a special advisor, talking about a bunch of things. Micst, reconsidering abeno out of the questionnaire he chance tois a better strip not only energy but also asip out fresh food prices the main gauge of inflation. Now, it is possible for the boj to consider that cpi gauge at the upcoming review, which coincides with the next meeting. And of the u. S. He thinks, unsurprisingly, would probably object to the boj buying foreign dollars. But anyway, dollaryen is on the way up, driving equity prices, which you can see the standout across the asiapacific, really just head and shoulders above everybody else so far this week. Shanghai want to mention, volumes quite thin, earnings continue to be in focus. Up one third of 1 , small and midcap record highs. But from that, nothing else happening. We are really looking forward to the jobs that were on friday. Anna david ingles in hong kong. Mario draghi has been quiet for over a month, as investors turned to the eurozone data out later today for guidance aheads of next week centralbank meeting. Manus speaking of a young in school of economics London School of economics, he was critical of the ecb policy. First, just focus on inflation, and the instrument or the intermediate variable they thought about was the interest rate. Now, they are talking about negative Interest Rates. Worked. Have not negative Interest Rates have not done extraordinarily carefully, actually weakening the Balance Sheets of the banks. His joining us now with analysis, valentin, very good morning to you. In that context, i want to contrast what we heard him Stanley Fischer yesterday, we just heard from stiglitz about negative Interest Rates. They were talking generally, not specifically about europe. But negative Interest Rates are working elsewhere, not on the table in the u. S. , stiglitz saying they have not work. Our Interest Rates working for europe . Isentin the Bigger Picture positive and negative rates about policy, and the Positive Side it is certainly encouraging catch holders to spend that cash. Should be seen as a stimulus. Environment of very low yield, and is having an impact on bank performers. And you could certainly link the introduction of negative rates to the persistence and underperforming bank stocks. So, the jury is still out. I guess, for the markets, really what the policymakers, the people in charge of potentially cutting those rates even further deeper into negative territory think about that. For the time being, Stanley Fischer, but also the ecb overwhelmingly still in favor of the policy. They are saying the policy is working. Really quite interesting, i think the jackson hole indicator, that in the absence of Structural Reforms in the eurozone and the absence of concerted fiscal stimulus, they have to dig even deeper. I guess that is the potential for them having to do more, but again from the current levels of the eurozone it is going to get even more difficult to cut further, given the impact on the banking sector. Manus we talk about Mario Draghis dashboard, inflation nowhere near the target of three 3 . Consumer optimism is fairly well above the longterm average. So the consumer looks at the usa the politics would probably trump everything, leaving it vulnerable. Valentin that is the next big risk for that eurozone. What the ecb is helping to achieve is to engineer the recovery, whereby the consumers who would play a key role, and this is where local uncertainty might derail the prospects for more sustained recovery. Maybe on the virtue of a couple of months of very heightened Political Risks in the eurozone, but centered around a couple of key events in Regional Elections in germany which could see the antiimmigration parties really extending the presence in local and ministrations. But more importantly, i think the key Political Risk in the euro zone for the year is a referendum in italy on the constitutional reform which may leave us without a government, in italy in early october. Anna i want to ask you about the specific nature of Political Risks, do you think it is lack of government . In the spanish case, not so damaging. They have done quite nicely, tourism this year, for reasons we can understand, where does that leave the euro against the dollar and the pound . Because against those biggest trading currencies, certainly the nearest neighbor as well, Political Risks in all cases. The political debate in the u. S. And the brexit. Conserving height of the sovereign debt crisis is that antieurope parties are the biggest parties, especially in italy. So the prospect of having an election after the referendum and having a government potentially led by fivestar movements want to coopt the referendum is quite concerning. From that point, the markets may seem somewhat complacent. At the same time, we are scrapping the policy response, where back in 2012 it was all brandnew, the intuitive idea of having all the problems that the ecb, all that helped a lot. Right now, we are starting the discussion questioning are those policies working at all . So the concern is precisely are were going to have Political Risks, where tis greater than bt the same time manus if you say that this is one month volatility over the next month, how real is the risk . Valentin the way we see it in the central case is that the Upcoming Events could have two different ways. One is the existential risk for the euro, which i dont think you should be attaching anything significant just yet. It is just a rest. The central case is that Political Uncertainty could lead to uncertain business decisions, delaying hiring, for the consumer the real driver of growth in the eurozone is delaying consumption. So the Political Risk will leave all into headwinds for growth. Manus and the downside, dollarsterling . Where do you see it . Are both i think they facing Downside Risk on the back of that. If anything, Political Risk will increase the chance of the ecb doing more before long. So you watch how this plays out in the euro zone. We think 108, ultimately a longterm prospect, 110 yearend. Nov staysentin merriari with us. Manus and under an hour we get the u. K. House prices nationwide. And also a slew of u. S. Inflation data collating in the cpi data. That is 10 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Anna we get unemployment. And midday it is the mba mortgage applications, and that follows an hour later by employment change data, as we head towards fridays key day. Manus under pressure, the shares take a hit, as brazilian prosecutors finalize a criminal approach into last years collapse. This as the groups ceo is asked. We get little that more on this. Anna macro economics, is that a possibility . What does frances biggest Employment Agency think of the president torres . Manus from race to stand up, spain has been without a government for eight months. Will they deny him another shot . All of this . This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back. 6 18 in london. Fairly foggy hang seng, flat at this trading day. Chin, the rosalind Bloomberg Business flash. Getlind anna, bhp will not a 2016 bonus following last years iron mine in brazil. Facing an annual base salary of earn alion could shortterm bonus. Meanwhile, according to one official, resilient prosecutors that resilient prosecutors are finding that next month, charging the federal use. Irelands finance minister Michael Noonan says apple will pay all of the tax due to the activities, after the European Union said that apple code ireland 14 million in back taxes. Between 5000 and 6000 people employed in cork, and there is substantial Economic Activity, and they pay full activity generated in ireland. Rosalind Investment Bankers and europes biggest Security Firm are watching bonuses melt. According to data compiled by wipederg, a route has more than 2. 5 billion from the shares that will pay bonuses the last few years, as barclays, credit suisse, and ubs. Awarding 22 million to a former month cento employee. A Financial Executive for the company said month cento booked revenue without properly recognizing all of the costs, causing it to miss earnings. And the worlds bestperforming stock fund is discovering the downside of success, after producing a threeyear return of 275 , more than any other active fun with at least 500 million managers, of the Microcap Fund say bargains are disappearing. The dearth of shares has become so severe, that the clients to the unusual step of limiting the benchmark index, jumping to alltime high this month. And that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus Rosalind Chin in hong kong. Frances economy minister has resigned, due to speculation that he launched a bit to replace the president , france hollande. Anna lets get to caroline and france. Very good to see. Really fascinating to see how the Business Community in france is responding to the latest move in the french political saga. What are the intentions . He stopped short of actually declaring his intention to run didnt he . Caroline he did. And the position within the french government was getting a little tricky. Remember, earlier this year he launched his own Political Movement called on the move, and in july he did his big political rally think he will carry the movement until victory in 2017. So of course, his ambitions were far greater than just the economy. And he had to leave at some point, in order to carry this Political Movement a little bit further. Last night he did a press conference, appearing on national television, but he did not say he was not going to be there for 2070, just saying that he needed a bit more freedom in order to meet his own proposals, that you touched the limit of our political system. And the question remains on whether he will build some proposal in order to support a socialist candidate, including hollaned, or whether he will run against his former boss. Manus you are at the heart of france business. Davos, what are the executive saying . Are they enthused by macron . He is the economic reformer of france, many people see him as the architect of change. Are they pro or disappointed at this particular departure . Those i have been speaking with so far are clearly disappointed about marcons departure, because i was mentioning he was very much the image of modernity. Week,ticized the 35hour the idea of the Prime Ministers, proposed year after year. He proposed some new tax cuts for businesses. The Business Community is disappointed. Ceo who told me why he thought macron was really good for the french government. Have a listen. Two interesting situations, one of the best prime rs, but i see france being far away from business enterprise. And marcon was someone who knew the issues. Entertain the discussion and understand what we need. Secondly, he was reforming. This is an issue not talk about. It is good news . I do not know. Caroline expected to speak tonight here, even though it was little bit different. Anna yes, indeed. Caroline speaking to us from the conference in versailles. Marinov still with us. It must be the shape of the brexit, what is going to look like . Brexit means brexit, theresa may said that. Nobody knows what brexit means. Give us your thoughts on the vulnerability of the pound right now. Valentin brexit is an issue. And if anything, what investors may be getting wrong, actually selling the pound, how much is already priced in terms of the price already . Yes, brexit is bad for the pound. Is going to cause uncer