Transcripts For BLOOMBERG First Up With Angie Lau 20160612 :

BLOOMBERG First Up With Angie Lau June 12, 2016

Bloomberg. Com. Lets check markets in asia pacific. In new zealand, down a quarter of a percent, the new zealand. Ollar at . 70 the strength of the kiwi weighing on equities and exports. Over to japan, futures trading in chicago, and it is pointing to a much lower open from fridays close, the japanese yen continuing to rise. No trading inket, australia, a Public Holiday for the queens birthday. Morning,tory this president obama says a massacre at a gay nightclub in florida is an attack on all americans. It is being investigated as an act of terrorism. By a lone 53 wounded gunman in the worst mass shooting in u. S. History. We have yvonne man with the latest on this. Asnne the attack happened 300 people were dancing and drinking. People described chaos and horror with dozens dead and injured as survivors rush to escape. Ae assault was followed by threehour standoff with people trapped inside becoming hostages. Teams form thelt ves tosetting off explosio distract the gun man. We are dealing with something that is unimaginable. Ask for a state of emergency. We are also issuing a state of emergency for the city of orlando so we can bring Additional Resources to bear to deal with the aftermath. The killer has been identified as a 29yearold u. S. Citizen born in new york to afghan parents. It is believed he was armed with an Assault Rifle and hand gun. He made a phone call before the attack in which he talked about socalled Islamic State and swore allegiance to the militant group. The fbi had previously afterigated mateen inflammatory comments about terrorist groups. Inagain came to attention 2014, but no incriminating evidence was found. The Islamic State that claim responsibility in a message several hours after the attack, but it is not known whether mateen had direct contact with the group. Here is what president obama had to say. The fbi is investigating this as an act of terrorism. I directed that we must bear no effort to determine what if any inspiration this killer may have had. Is that he was a person filled with hatred. In the coming days, we will uncover why and how this happened and go wherever the facts lead us. It is a horrible tragedy. Sad,e mourning, heartbroken, and it is not really time for any sensational news and rush to judgment. s father said religion had nothing to do with the killings and that his son may have been motivated by homophobia. Worst mass shooting in modern u. S. History. Angie we are expecting the latest check on the economy. Our china correspondent Tom Mackenzie joins us now. What can we expect. tom another litmus test for the chinese economy. They will release data on industrial output, retail sales, fixed assets investments, and real estate, and construction. The forecast for industrial output are 6 growth year on year for the month of may. That is in line with the 6 we saw in april as well. That will be an important gauge to see the demand for chinas and how muchtput progress the government here is making on cutting back on overcapacity. That is a probably seem to be talking about so much nowadays. Expected to are come in 10 point 1 in may year on year, also in line with april. Retail sales were slow willby auto sales, so that be an interesting component. Retail sales a big part of the Consumer Sector here, a sector that is increasingly doing the heavy lifting is a slowdown in manufacturing and heavy industry slows. Last month, we saw a reluctance from businesses to invest in fixed access assets. Will we see any uptick in that data point as well . All those things worth looking at when they hit at 10 00 local time. Comes in the data weaker than expected, can we expect more stimulus . That is a key question. Bloomberg intelligence have been punching the numbers, and their assessment is that if the data comes in line with expectations, then policy will be kept on hold. The question of whether or not easing will happen, there will have to be according to Bloomberg Intelligence a fairly drastic come down in the numbers or miss testaments, because there is this tension within the toernment here as to how balance this economic slowdown, whether to increase credit, and there seems to be an increased focus on reducing that credit, and we saw the comments from the imf over the weekend talking about their concerns about corporate debt loads in china. Policymakers are very aware of that. They are feeling the pressure from the u. S. Treasury secretary when he was talking about overcapacity and pointing to some of the credit and debt problems in manufacturing and heavy industry here. They will want to keep it on hold if at all possible. Increasing credit into the system is something they would like to avoid at this stage as they try to fix some of the more central problems in the economy. We will have to see what the data says when it comes through. Angie data dependent. Thank you for that. Live from beijing. Other headlines for you, the imf is urging china to tackle its ballooning corporate debt. Isid lipton says the problem serious and growing and must be addressed immediately. Bloomberg intelligence estimates that china has accumulated debt faster than any other g20 nation over the past decade climbing to 250 of gdp. Former vice governor of the pboc says china needs proper transparentforms, bodies to reduce its systematic risk. , if poorly economy handled, small problems could assume far greater importance. It should be the goal of future reforms to let Financial Products returned to the role of serving the real economy in a trance ford straightforward and transparent way. It means constantly adapting to the needs of the market. Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for investors to have the same rights as local shareholders in china. Meeting the premier at the beginning of her visit to at it is she said th crucial and important to relations with the two countries. She said no one wanted a trade war between europe and china, and germany supports a stronger voice for beijing and the imf. Widening investigation into te group of and into the biggest ipo this year. It has indicated that it is shelving its ipo offering. We are taking a look into this. What is lotte saying now. Bethey say it is going to difficult to complete the procedures necessary to finish the ipo process by july. It is looking like it is indicating that this ipo may not happen after all. It is not clear. This ipo would have been the worlds biggest ever at 4. 5 billion. If we look back, prosecutors raided the headquarters and offices of some units, including and it isunit, looking into allegations of slush funds and investment. Sent200 investigators were to 17 locations related to the group. The group says they will cooperate fully with the investigation. It is huge, 89 divisions in korea, and it has assets worth more than 86 billion. Te is the biggest operator in korea and the worlds thirdlargest operator of dutyfree shops. This area is one of the most lucrative for the group. Angie hotel lotte was supposed to complete the ipo this month, wasnt it . Wouldwas, but said it push the deadline back to july. This after another investigation into allegations of bribery concerning the sister of the , and prosecutors are looking into allegations that she and other executives accepted payments from a cosmetics maker in return for preferential treatment. From isnt any comment either side, but it is the latest in a string of setbacks for the group. Lostvember, the hotel unit a license for one of its outlets. Fact, they were banned from broadcasting in prime time for six months because it was accused of two it had accused to executives of bribery. There had been a coup attempt from the older brother of the current chairman. The chairman has managed to push that away, but still, the pressures are continuing for the group and hotel unit with its planned ipo. Angie like a korean family drama and rely. Thank you for that. You can get a lot more on that story and all the days top stories at our digital destination, bloomberg business, bringing together the best of bloomberg news, business week, Bloomberg Television allinone address. Tie ones new leader blocks her predecessors attempt to visit hong kong. Chinas appetite for pork has doubled shipments so far this year. That is bloomberg. Com asia. Check it out. The brexit vote is 10 days away. We will speak to one of the uks leading economists and a supporter of britain leaving the eu. Stay with us. Angie it is 7 15 a. M. In hong kong. Theident Barack Obama Says gunman who killed 50 people at a florida nightclub was filled with hatred to the massacre is being investigated as an act of terror. Another 53 people were wounded in the attack. It is the worst mass shooting in american history. The killer has been identified as omar mateen, a 29yearold u. S. Citizen born in new york to afghan parents. He talked about Islamic State in a 911 call you for the attack. Is therefore ae further reminder of how easy it is for someone to get hands on their weapon to shoot people in a school or a house of worship or a Movie Theater or in a nightclub. We have to decide if thats the kind of country we want to be. Nothing, it is a decision as well. Angie the inclusion of chinese as ares has been described historical certainty. The prediction days for the decision to add the yuan to a global index. Its new draft of Oil Contracts still needs revisions, but is confident the first deal will be signed soon. Theoil minister says government and regulators have reached a partial consensus on the language, but the first deals are 23 months away. Iran is hoping the new contracts will draw 50 billion of Foreign Investment every year from global oil companies. Powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. Here is a look at the big events we are following for you this week. The latest data showing the chinese economy stabilizing, so is the cause for concern . The imf issues its verdict when it releases a report on tuesday. Over the weekend, the imap second in charge said the country should take steps to attack its rising debt. This has been considered since 2013, and a decision has been delayed twice because of concerns over market accessibility. Chinanclusion would give waited involvement of 40 in the index. The boj expected to keep policy on hold thursday, citing waning support from the ruling party reducing incentives for more stimulus ahead of the election next month. Remains far from the inflation target of 2 after three years of unprecedented action. Thursday is a big day for entertainment. That is when Shanghai Disney opens its doors for the first time, showing china and the world what 5 billion dollars buys you in the home park themepark game. Prime minister David Cameron says he is confident that the campaign to keep britain in the European Union is working as the latest polls say opinion is too close to call. The survey for the observer showed 44 support for britain remaining, 42 backing brexit. Poll for thea sunday times online showed 43 of respondents wanting to leave the eu, with 42 happy to stay. Lets discuss the referendum right now with the executive economics, capital normally based in london, but joins us now in hong kong. Should britain stay or go . Well, i have a decided position on this. I think it is in britains interest to leave, but there are different views on this. This is not all about economics. Lots of people in britain are view ofn this on a sovereignty, control, and migration. , if you take at look at the bloomberg probability index at the bottom of your screen, lets pull it up right now, it shows that over the weekend, the polling shows that in fact of those in your camp, theres about a 10 point lead right now for brexit actually happening. Yes, what has happened in britain over the last couple of weeks is that opinion has been turning towards the leave camp as anxiety about migration has been growing. One thing we have learned over the last couple of years is that these polls dont really tell us a lot. We go to the latest elections, the polls were hopeless. There were several occasions where the polls have been seriously wrong. All i know is that it is really tight. Angie if it is tight, there cant be certainty. Lets say it is 51 , ok . Still, half the country wanted to stay. Even if we vote to leave, some people are beginning to think that actually we might not leave, because this referendum is advisory. In order for britain to leave, after the referendum, a bill has to be passed in parliament, and parliament is strongly in favor of staying, so this will see very uncertain whatever the result. Angie you are one of the very few, if not the only one i really heard from with an economist point of view, who supports leaving. Most economists have expressed the fall ofe, britain and the eu, the contagion effect would be hard to quantify, you think otherwise. What you think would happen . In the shortterm, there could be some harm done to britain because there is uncertainty. I think this may already be happening, people putting off spending decisions. That is possible. If you look out over the next few years, i find it difficult to believe that britain will not do well outside. Those people who think we will be harmed seriously are talking about full access to the single market. People in hong kong had difficulty accessing the single market. All around the world, countries trade with the European Union without being members of it. All britain would do if it left the eu would put itself in the same position as other countries. Angie a lot of countries dont support it, including china. Stay with us. We have to go to break right now. Roger will return for more on brexit when first up continues. Stay with us. Angie welcome back. Youre watching first up. We are still here with the executive chairman of Capital Economics. Leave,d britain should supports it. We talked about what could happen to britain. What about the eu . I am more worried about the eu than britain in the circumstances. If you think about the World Economy and vulnerabilities in the world, we have then threw a year where so many are worried about china, i think it is clear that europe is what you have to worry about. That is the center of low growth. The eu,in were to leave there would be calls for referendums in other countries in holland, sweden, the political situation in france is so you could see this leading to a series of results which would worry people and perhaps unsettle the eurozone. Angie if you are so worried about it, what you supported . That is a different kettle of fish. You have got to think about the longterm, decades into the future. It has taken 40 years for britain to have a referendum on the subject. What happens next tuesday is not the point. For british people, this is mainly about sovereignty and control. Brexit wast that a going to cause a cataclysm for europe or the World Economy, i would not support it, but we dont know that. We dont ourselves believe it will cause a cataclysmic result. It could cause Political Developments which would change the structure of your. Angie china does not want that. Like so manya, other countries and organizations, is in favor of the status quo. Japan does not want it either. We have lots of japanese firms in britain who really want written to stay in the eu. History suggests that they are not really good judges of what is in britains estrus interest. , ife could this trigger there is a brexit, could this trigger global contagion, a Global Economic meltdown . Is unlikely. The fact is that the World Economy and a number of ways is looking a bit healthier. Then it did earlier this year. Thea was a big worry at beginning of the year, oil prices were week, commodity places were on the floor, that was a more probable meltdown time. Stabilize, china has the oil prices up, lots of emerging markets looking better. I think this catastrophe story is overdone. Angie enjoy your Capital Economics asia conference. Capitalws, not economics, to be clear here. Thank you for joining us in our studio today. Coming up next, the bears are out for alibaba. Why some investors are losing confidence. That story and a it is a Public Holiday in sydney for the queens birthday. Are 30 minutes away from the opening of trading in japan and south korea. Story dominating the news, president obama says the shooting at the orlando nightclub was an attack on america. He called the killing of 50 people an act of terror and hatred. Gunman was ae 29yearold u. S. Citizen of afghanistans. He was armed with a handgun and an Assault Rifle. He was killed by police after the worst mass shooting in modern american history. He attacked more than a nightclub. It was a place of solidarity and empowerment. People came together for awareness and to speak their minds. This is a sobering reminder that a tax on any americans regardless of race and ethnicity religion or Sexual Orientation is an attack on all of us. This is bloomberg news. Lets check in on markets in the asiapacific region. Extending losses this hour. Check out this new Zealand Dollar figure. Strong kiwi definitely waiting on dairy farmers. Lets take a look at japan. Futures trading at chicago. This is what is pointing to. Compare that to a close of 601. A regulatory investigation is weighing on alibaba stock. Traders have never been more bearish on the chinese company. Shortselling as soaring to a record high. The bad news just hes coming for alibaba. Weve seen factors upon factors that have put a target on alibabas back. Life is not a consolidated entity. Not huge in terms of the reduction but still unsettling because they have caught the market off guard. Of 120 million. Shares are out there to borrow for shortselling. Since december what we saw about 60 million. It has doubled since then. Coming to Short Interest. The stock has been on a roller coaster since its ipo. Shares down about 6 . Writing on this wave of bad news that keeps coming in. Take a look at the Fourth Quar

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