Transcripts For BLOOMBERG First Up With Angie Lau 20160619 :

BLOOMBERG First Up With Angie Lau June 19, 2016

And lets check in on the markets in asia pacific this monday morning. Of 1 aland, a third higher, a stronger kiwi as well, and the remain campaign is gaining momentum after that tragic assassination of jo cox. Australia looking like this, pointing to a lower open. Dollar at . 74, strengthening. Japan, futures trading in chicago, gain on friday. It will extend gains today according to futures in chicago, yen weakening. E can i brexit will dominate markets this week, but india will have to deal with a looming departure. The r. B. I. Governor says he will not take another term in september. Is this a surprise . Rexou have brexit and now it, double stress test for india. On themore pressure currency, the ruby powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. His departure could be a question of lost credibility. The rupeee a look at in the last three years, he has strengthened it. In terms of stability, he has done so. In 2013, Morgan Stanley listed the currency as the fragile five along with indonesia and other currencies. The dollarrupee has been slow and steady for the last couple of years. This propel the nations fx reserves to surge to an alltime high. Have helped to build indias credibility among toestors as well, helping overtake china as one of the fastestgrowing major economies. Inflation has come down a bit as well. He said he was confident that his policies would carry through past his term. It would protect india from sudden capital flight. Will lead toit outflows in the shortterm until they announce his successor. Longterm, people still see potential when it comes to highgrowth, positive reform, and high caries. Monday, they say, will be a tough day. Angie it has absolutely been under pressure politically. Despite everything he has been doing well for india, except a little slow on that inflation goal, he has come under pressure. There did not seem to be support from the government as to whether or not they wanted to extend. He basically said i will step away. Did that surprise the government . Is that going to appease the detractors . Who will be the next guy . There are a couple of names in the mix. The Deputy Governor for the rbi is the most obvious. He has 25 years over all in economic how lessee, and he is known as the key architect in the reforms we see. Other names have been thrown around as well. A couple of names, september 4 is the last day for him. We will see if we have a successor by then. Angie thank you so much for that. Lets check in other headlines. Themakers now rating chances of britain leaving the eu at 30 with the pound climbing as campaigning resumes after the murder of jo cox. Leaders from both sides visited the sunday talk shows. Said britain is better off in the eu. ,avid cameron took questions accusing leave campaigners of misleading voters. , we can choose to leave leave, but if we leave, thats it here at we are walking out, quitting, giving up on this organization, which even if we leave will have a huge effect on our lives, our children, our opportunities, our businesses. I dont think britain is a quitter. I think we should stay and fight. Thats what we should do. Angie apple has a new legal hurdle in china. Filed ans it has appeal to allow its phones to remain on the market. Intellectualproperty iphone 6 violateve fixe rights. Fromn to buy assets shenzhen metro failed to secure enough boats from the board. Diluted aave littleknown group. Largest shareholder in a hostile takeover. , a recoveryes easing, prices climbed and 60 cities. Growth in average new home prices slowed for the First Time Since october. Local governments have been introducing restrictions in leading centers, where prices have been searching. Was hard toht msci please, china may have a tougher time winning over the compilers of global bond indexes. China has made some progress when it comes to its bonds markets, but is a good enough . Where credit is due, china took a major step earlier this year of allowing Foreign Investors greater access to the bond market. It is the worlds third biggest market, but fraught with accessibility issues. Back in february, they got rid of all quotas when it comes to the bond market. Last month, for the reforms of the currency aspect of these under the program, but the concern is that despite these efforts, there may not be enough when it comes to china wanting to get its domestic notes added to global bond indices compiled by citigroup, j. P. Morgan, barclays, etc. , much like the msci when it comes to equities. The hurdles are the same issues cited by the msci last week, accessibility, repatriation. Taxes as well. If you take a look at the interest when it comes to domestic notes in china by foreigners, since the end of 2013, 70 compared to 66 when it comes to equities. Bond investors even more so than Equity Investors are likely to be driven by technicalities, so scrapping all entry requirements into the market, will that get the investors excited, but it is that isility to exit more important during times of market volatility. Angie what is at stake here . Does china need foreign funding . About 150 billion is what is at stake when it comes to Government Debt that china could raise thanks to inclusion in these major global bond indices, comparing to 30 billion when it comes to asha res getting put into the msci. This comes when china could use that foreign funding. Beijing is looking to attract inflows. It has a trillion dollars worth of capital outflows over the past year. That is seen to start picking up given that rebuttal from msci, putting a dent in sentiment and the currency. Angie you can get more on that story and all the days top stories at our digital desta tatian, bloomberg business, bringing together the best of bloomberg news, business week, bloomberg television, new Digital Content allinone addressed, also bloomberg. Com. An electric sports car as a rival to tesla. Disney sets a record for a new animated feature, bloomberg. Com asia. Check it out. Russia considering selling stakes in one of its corporate crown jewels. Sources tell us that president Vladimir Putin is considering offloading part of rosneft to help fund budget shortfalls. Would a deal like that with china and india, but theyre not saying much about this. Are going by what we have been told by bloomberg sources. They have been earmarked for possible privatization, and russia said it would consider a joint deal, looking to sell. Both china and india have commented that they would be interested to be part of a privatization, but neither have made comments on a joint deal. Indias oil minister did say that one could not be ruled out and that we are not rivals. Gas andoil and natural the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation have projects. China said it was starting taking part in the privatization, but did not provide more details. Sneft is statecontrolled, but 20 is already owned by British Petroleum. Onres did jump more than 5 friday. The stock has gained more than 40 this year. It makes sense in the sense that china and india are two out of three of asias fastestgrowing economies. Also, there has been a tilt towards asia in the Russian Strategic focus since its military incursion into ukraine. Sanctions curbed some of its access to europe, funding, and demand in europe. Strategy ist focused on boosting oil and gas supplies to china. China is the biggest market in the asian region and an neft,tant financier for ros providing more than 100 billion in loans and prepayments over the last decade, key to being able to build itself into the oil giant it has become today, the worlds biggest public be traded oil company by applet, partly because of this finance. Angie thank you for that. Coming up next, the campaign for the u. K. To remain in the do may gaining momentum. We will talk about the implications on markets ahead on first up. 7 13 a. M. In hong kong, the stories making headlines. And ubs advising on a merger between two banks. The National Bank of abreu dobby and first goal bank with a combined portfolio of 170 billion. The deal would be the first major banking merger since the National Bank of dubai combined with emirates in 2007. Credit suisse has placed five employees on leave while conducting an internal investigation. A newspaper says the staff worked on the israel staff, working on ipos. The probe is linked to possible breaches of u. S. Tax laws by israelis. The bank declined to comment. Australia has support for struggling steelmaker less than two weeks before the election. Malcolm turnbulls coalition will provide 36 million for new machinery at two mines in south which will convert lowgrade iron ore into export quality. It was described as an open will support 2000 mining jobs. Powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. I am yvonne man. Week was a volatile one with the looming brexit vote and speculation over the fed. We take a look at what we can expect in the u. S. This week. The week ahead on wall street will likely see investors along with the rest of the world hyper focused on the speeches, debates, and final countdown to that Bitter Campaign in the u. K. To either leave or remain in the european union. Another highlight of the trading week, janet yellen testifies to congress on Monetary Policy on backtoback days midweek. Testimony before lawmakers having voted to keep Interest Rates unchanged. Economic reports in the coming week will probably show that sales of previously owned homes climbed in may, while new home purchases declined. The economists also say that orders for durable goods are expected to drop. Facebookrporate front, holding its annual shareholder meeting, while ge will hold its First Digital investors meeting. Hairy, anddex, black Bed Bath Beyond are among the Companies Set to announce earnings. The Brexit Debate is set to dominate this week, but there are other key economic a deck, beginning with japans may trade figures. We are joined by carlos casanova. The boj kept rates unchanged. That is speculation governor kuroda has to act this summer. Thats right. There are mounting pressures on growth in japan. That in combination with an unprecedented appreciation of the yen versus the dollar is definitely putting pressure to make a move. Angie of course the brexit doesnt help either. It doesnt help. Global investors are shifting towards a safe havens. You seen a lot of demand for the yen, pushing prices up. So definitely not good news for japan. Right now, slightly strengthening off that. We are seeing some relief of pressure after the latest brexit vote. Do you think there could be intervention at some point from the boj if it does see the yen strengthened . This is a topic that was put forward at the g20 and shanghai, but also at the g seven in japan. Global powers agree that they need to coordinate actions and avoid unilateral competitive devaluations. Its not sure that japan wont see it so forced to intervene if things get worse with the brexit vote. Angie where do you see the yen going . We expect strengthening to continue, but the regional forecasts for asia is appreciation towards the end of the year. Angie strengthening in the shortterm, i guess its hard to say. Anything could happen after the 23rd if the pressure is off the yen . If the u. K. Vote to leave the eurozone, it could be quite destabilizing. That is the biggest risk factor in the shortterm. Angie if they dont . There are other headwinds, we global command, china slowing which means they need to implement easing, which means will regional partners begin easing, putting downward pressures on currencies. Angie what kind of moves you expect from the pboc . We dont expect a full Interest Rate cut. They have been struggling with how close with outflows. Liquidityand more injections, as well as more fiscal stimulus. Angie will they widen or tighten the trading band for the yuan . I expect more depreciation, gradual, but converging toward 6. 8 by the end of the year. Angie that is the goal, you think . Yes. Angie property prices in china show that stability with the it may not beat as good in the property market. It is easing in terms of recovery. Yes, definitely. A lot of the optimism in may was on the back of home sales. This is something now starting to reverse again. So it does show weakness in the chinese economy. The case thatbeen capital flows into firsttier cities like shenzhen and shanghai in the shortterm, especially when you have strict capital controls, but there has always been downward pressure on secondtier and third tear cities, where there are concerns over oversupply. That will be an issue going ford. Angie stay right here. We want to get more on the fed and centralbank action happening in india. Study with us. You are watching first up. Angie welcome back. You are watching first up. Yellen to testify at congress, will we get more direction from her in the Federal Reserve . We saw a reversal of this stance the fed had prior to the may payroll data. Onht now, we are focusing one Interest Rate hike, perhaps to, but that is unlikely. The good news for emerging markets is renewed dovishness opens the door for easing and does support capital inflows in the shortterm. Angie we saw that earlier this year, so it is set to continue for the philippines and thailand this week . That trend will deftly continue because of this renewed dovishness in the fed. The sustainability of strength in the longterm depends upon the speed of hikes by the fed, but also risks materializing. A europe that and could be destabilized with outflows increasing. Angie lets talk about this reprieve in terms of Central Banks, philippines and thailand. You think they will act to this week . Do you think they will wait until after brexit . We saw how they acted last week with indonesia and korea, this renewed dovishness. Stance remains pro growth in asia, and there is room to continue cutting Interest Rates. However, this week because we had the eu referendum, it is unlikely that Central Banks will make a move, and less tricky necessary. Angie i have to bring in india here. A surprise, but definitely an affirmation of Foreign Investors big fear about india. Yes. , he has done a good job as central governor and has helped move india ahead of china has the top performer in terms of regional growth. Investors are worried that the policy will change, and india needs to continue implementing measures to facilitate investment in the region. Floated a couple of names. Do you know any of them . We dont know who will be the new one, but it could be quite destabilizing if its someone whos not more international in his outlook or more proforeign investment. Angie that is something they will have to keep an eye on. We will leave it there. Thank you for joining has. I think everybody is waiting for brexit right now. Thanks. , thinking local as a goes global. Out whatokyo to find netflix is doing to expand its japanese presence. A rainy day in tokyo. A live look there at the imperial palace. In 20 minutes we will break down the japan trade imbalance data for you. Previously it was ¥823. 2 billion. Quite a contraction. Openinges away from the of trading there, as well as south korea and australia. Top stories of this hour, expected with new pressure following r. B. I. Decision not to take the engine when his term ends december 4. Currently is secondworst performer this year. Bookmakers are now waiting for the chances of britain meeting the eu at just 3 , the pound climbing is campaigning resumed after the murder of a proleader. Leaders on both sides of the debate wrote an open letter saying that is better off. Isme minister David Cameron accused of selling takes the oil company to china and india with several targets ahead of the election. Moscow once to raise 11 billion. The deal would not only cover budget shortfalls, but strengthen ties with asia and the u. S. And europe. Journalists400 around the world, this is number news. Checking on the market this morning, the first trading day you are seeing gains in new zealand, that stronger new u. S. Cents. Ar at 78 australia pointing to a lower open right now, it is strengthening. Japan, pointing to a higher opening. Two victories for the duration Prime Minister helping him to strengthen his grip on power. Many with your majorities in affected, the right political turmoil and allegations of corruption. The results of this are still significant. Significant. A huge weight and is significant because this is the first step of public support for logic najib after the 681 billion that appeared in his personal accounts. He really needed to win to validate his position in his eight margins suggested he still has the support within the coalition party. Despite the slowing growth and on thes of his impact cornerstone of the party. To be sure, several factors helped him to secure the win. One, the opposition was divided. To opposition groups ran for both seats in there was even an independent candidate making it much easier for the ruling party to win. He also made sure that the party was visible in the lead up to the polls. Daily trips, shaking hands with voters, at times handing out bags of rice and other necessities to the poor. Thats reggie aimed at overshadowing the opposition, which focused on his credibility. That strategy edge paid off. Is it fair to say that the opposition is losing ground . It has not been able to capitalize on progress it made a few years ago. You are spot on. The infighting is it. One party left the opposition alliance, after implementing the islamic penal code. That idea clashing with another party consisting mostly of ethnic chinese. The opposition is split. There are policy differences. Plus the key Opposition Leader is in jail. Not surprisingly, political observers say that the young voters that would have voted for the opposition just did not turn out to cast their votes. Disillusioned. They may have gained 2013, but that has come to naught. Thanks for that. Lets take a look at what else we are following for you this morning on the bloomberg. Rosalind planning

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