Cooperation, and not by human suffering but by human progress, a world that is safer and more prosperous and more secure and more free than the one that we inherited. Lets get to work. Thank you very much. [applause] francine that was president barack obama, speaking where leaders are gathering to try to thrash out an agreement for Climate Change. President obama warning of submerged cities if no action is made on Climate Change. We understand the u. S. Will not sign a legally binding agreement. He also talked about the future generation. Starting friday, surveillance will be broadcasting live from for thehe top 21 cop 21 talks in paris. the u. S. Jobs report may lead the fed to raise them. China may be finally getting the respect it has wanted. Showdown in paris. Global leaders meet to resolve their differences and come up with a deal on Climate Change. But the conference itself is a security nightmare. Bricks and clicks beat bricks over the weekend. David welcome to bloomber blg. Im david westin. Stephanie how was security . ; it was perfectly fine. I went to the parade on thursday. One of the most extraordinary things i have ever seen, one of the most destroyed very people at bloomberg is with us this morning. My former colleague from Deutsche Bank, Carl Riccadonna. Welcome. Thanks for joining us. Carl the distinguished guest . Stephanie you. I am sure you want to be focused on cyber monday, clicking, clicking. Here is vonnie quinn with bloomberg news. Than 100 40 leaders will try to reach the First Comprehensive deal to curb greenhouse gases. Obamaping and president met in paris. There are still some sticking points per one of them, how much support industrial nations will give poorer countries to cut their emissions. Pollution in beijing is off the charts today. Some pollution readings in the Chinese Capital have reached 17 times the levels considered safe by the world health organization. And the university of chicago has canceled classes today after receiving an anonymous threat. The fbi warns an online message threatens an armed attack. Federal and local authorities are trying to figure out who is responsible. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Here is matt miller. Matt u. S. Futures up across the board. The real story i think is over in europe this morning. Take a look at european stocks through the indexes gaining across the board. Not a huge gain on the ftse, but a huge gain in germany on the dax. 1. 0576. Right now at the pound slipped for a moment, under 1. 50. These are back to april lows, so were seeing expectation of mario draghi expanding qe along with the u. S. Fed raising rates, shifting the bounds of power even more in favor of the dollar. German automakers are doing very well in german trade this expect cause they because investors expect the weaker euro to help daimler, boats wagon, and bmw sell more cars. David we are following several big stories with coverage all over the world. We are joined by hans nichols in paris at the Climate Change inference, Jonathan Ferro london, and Carl Riccadonna in new york. , lets start with you in new york. There is a lot of talk about security. And you give us specifics of what the scene is like in terms of security . Hans in paris central, it is somewhat of a ghost town. There are so many roadshow off, police barricades. 300 potential protesters have been arrested under the new Police Powers that Francois Hollande asked for. The criticism from the protesters is they want to criticize what is happening from the Climate Change, and the Emergency Powers of the government are restricting their ability to do so. There are 10,000 officers in the entire zone. We had president obama setting the stage, visit the bataclan where the attacks took place a couple of weeks ago. I was just down there. There were a violent clashes last night between protesters and government officials that is much calmer now. You see a city trying to heal. It is almost back to normal, but for the roses, the flowers, and the memorial to the fallen. Stephanie now lets take you to london, where david mentioned it is a big week in central bank. The ecb is expected to wrap up stimulus, while the fed will be looking closely at jobs data, out this friday. We will hear from the one and only man who coined the term, i will do whatever it takes, mario draghi. And janet yellen will speak this week. Does mario draghi have any room at this point to back down . Jon he had the opportunity to back down two weeks ago, but he reemphasize the need to do more by saying we need to get inflation back toward target as quickly as possible. Going into thursday, we expect one of three things. The consensus now is they go to. 3 . The prospect of increasing the monthly Asset Purchase Program to 700 billion euros billion euros every month, and then expanding the program it was a risk. He goes into thursday not doing enough, considering how much the market has priced in. Stephanie but if the goal is to buy European Assets when the economy is in a fragile state, how does buying assets change things . We have not seen the underlying improvement in any substantial way in years. Jon we have not, but i will say the credit channel has improved. The fx channel, you have seen will taketic this a slow time to play out. You see it immediately and sovereign bond curves, on the periphery in spain and italy. For the smes the credit conditions, that will take time to improve. He wants to see more of that. I would say give it time. Remember that the ecb is about three or four years by the federal reserve. They only started doing qe back in march. To see the channel really improve and then see the economy improve off the back of that, it will take some years. David Carl Riccadonna, it sounds like it is almost inevitable that mario draghi will further increase the easing. What does that say about what the fed is likely to do . We seem to be taking two very divergent paths. Carl this is a rare divergence in Monetary Policy among the most important Central Banks in the world. We have a fed rate hike pretty much baked into the cake for next week. Ecb easing this week. That tells us they will not only be divergence in Monetary Policy, but also in Exchange Rates. We are very likely going to see parity in the eurodollar Exchange Rate near term. This is because the economies are on two very different tracks as well. We have a u. S. Economy that is good but not great, and a european economy that continues to struggle. Stephanie talked about a lot of channels through which the ecb would impact the european economy. Is thet important Exchange Rate. A cheaper euro will be a big stimulus to european exporters, and the exporter engine is important. David how much of this is baked into the marketplace . How much is the fx marketplace already anticipating this . Jon a lot of it. We are headed for the first the worst month for the euro since march. There is a current account surplus in europe. That is fundamental demand for the currency. Where this is really playing out is a yield differential. If you compare the u. S. Twoyear to the german twoyear, the spread has been widening. It is one of the main reasons you have seen eurodollar trade lower. Going forward, the biggest resist the biggest risk is the federal reserve. Yellen came out in the spring and slapped it back down again. We are at the point now where the feds pain threshold for the currency in the december meeting will be interesting. Guidance in the fx london, they keep talking about a dovish hike. I wonder if they will deliver that. Stephanie what happens to u. S. Corporates if we get more week information out of europe, strong jobs numbers out of the u. S. , and that means a stronger dollar. That is not necessarily good for u. S. Companies, especially for those operations abroad. Then what happens . Carl that is true, but nonetheless that is going to be the reality for the u. S. Economy over the next couple of years. Doingnie the economy is so well, youre through with the u. S. Dollar year round. Carl this is going to be the new reality, possibly the best medicine for europe is the fact that not only mario draghi will ease policy, but janet yellen is going to tighten policy. It will not be a dramatic tightening. I think it will be a dovish hike. She is going to raise rates in december. But the fed is going to signal a lower pathos rate increases over the next couple of years. Right now they are telling you four to five rate hikes over the next two years. Next wednesday we will see two to three rate hikes per year. So a much slower fed. They will be easing at the same time they are hiking. That is the dovish hike. Stephanie my question to you, david i do not think we have ever had jon ferro. Wasnt he great . We really like having you on bloomberg. When we come back, volatility is back in vogue. In china, markets also awaiting a decision. We are heading to hong kong next for global go. Stephanie vonnie welcome back to bloomberg. In brazil, jailed billionaire Andre Estevez posts atned all of his his investment bank. He will be in jail indefinitely. s leaders are emergency are in emergency talks to sell aspects and sell estevezs controlling stake. It wills Largest Investment Bank is leading leaving its bonus unchanged from last year. That bucks the trend of its european rival Deutsche Bank, which is preparing to cut bonuses. Some beer brands may be sold to help clear the way for the merger of the two biggest rumors. Ab inbev has agreed to buy bank to buy seb miller. Two brands may be sold, peroni and grolsch. David in todays global go, we had to hong kong where investors are seeing a second day of price swings. Bloombergs enda curran joins us now. Lets start with two questions. Is this a done deal in terms of including the yuan . Number two, why do we care . What does it really matter . Enda good morning. All the indications are that it is a done deal to some extent. It has already been a has already it been recommended to the executive board. Maybe we willn is have some connections. We will find later. While it is an important victory for china to begin with, it will embolden the reformers within china, those people trying to open up the economy in the financial markets. They will use it as a tool in after a to push very difficult year. Do not forget, with the swings in the stock market they had this summer, the change of and yet rate regime, the imf by green lighting the you want is almost saying that this is part of the bigger challenge. Sorry, we lost your microphone for a moment or two. But there are reports that perhaps the central bank of china has been intervening with the offshore you want to bring it toward the on share. Is this something that will be included . Enda the central bank has been intervening consistently since the august 11 Exchange Rate change when ed valued you want when it did valued the yuan wanten it d valued the you. The big unknown is what they will do Going Forward. The the decision is out of way, will that be a green light for the central bank to allow the currency to weaken, and of course that will be held to exporters on a Political Base within china. The have been playing by rules. That is a sort of uncertainty Going Forward. David there has been a fair amount of a volatility. Any connection between the yuan and the sdr and bringing some stability, increased stability in the equity markets . The selloff on friday sold off by 5 . That was a reminder of how fragile sentiment is both in china and on the china story. The economy continues to be in the relatively slowly. The government has partly measures to the rarest of intervention, but that big selloff in price goes to show you the downward pressure is still there, the downward pressure on currency also still exists. Enda curran from hong kong, thank you for joining us. Stephanie i have to talk shopping because when david was talking hong kong, i was busy holiday and ordering as shopping continues today with cyber monday, black friday. Brickandmortar sales were down 11 from last year, according to the National Retail federation. The big question is, can cyber can cyber monday sell retailers . Thank you for doing that. Dont forget walmart. After thanksgiving, i do not know what it is. Carl riccadonna was in Southern Illinois then. I am going to defend retail for a moment. You know i am a retail enthusiast. Brick and mortar was down on friday, but overall where the numbers up . I wasr five years ago, not doing any Online Shopping, and now you have me a little bit of brickandmortar, a lot of Online Shopping. One could argue it is all going in the right direction. Context, there is a perception that, oh, my god, nobody goes to stores anymore. As we talked about on friday ,hen i was in the stores 4. 5arget on thursday, billion dollars is spent online. The majority of business is still in brickandMortar Stores. It is obviously a big shift. Stephanie s overall shopping up . I was in j. Crew in georgetown on friday. It was packed, you could not even get inside the door. Shannon i think we will get some better indications today from the National Retail federation. The trend seems to be, spending is up. We do not know what happened saturday and sunday, which are big retailbased, too. We have to include today, monday, cyber monday, when another 3 billion is expected to be spent. ,nother thing to look forward people started shopping a lot earlier this year. Stephanie why, because the deal started earlier . Shannon because the deal started earlier. We look at black friday, saturday, sunday. 1. 8 billion was spent in brick and Mortar Stores on things giving day. Online shopping on things giving day was up 18 compared to last year. The Holiday Season has been stretched out. It has been stretched earlier. Retailers say that is great for us. More people in the store, coming back, looking for deals. David how important are these numbers for the overall economy, over the course of the year . Carl Consumer Spending without a doubt is the critical driver for the economy right now. If consumers shut down, the economy is going to significantly downshift as well. We have to pay close attention. What i have learned over the years watching these numbers is that the black friday numbers and the anecdotes of door busters and whatnot have very little correlation with the actual spending results for the quarter. So if we look at economic fundamentals, we are coming off a month of strong job gains and we have a strong jobs report on friday, then that tells you the economy is doing just fine and therefore the Holiday Shopping numbers should be fine as well. Shannon a little bit of the question will be, the consumer has money, so where they will where will they spend it . Will they spend it on j. Crew, apple watches . On thanksgiving, the line for the apple watch was around the store. Apparel was 40 off at target, but nobody was touching it. They imported it into ireland, and it was huge. We shopped on grafton street in thanksgiving, and they had big sales. Stephanie when i was growing up, there were big sales after christmas. When i think about Holiday Shopping back then, it was just december 25 december 20 six. Has Holiday Shopping got significantly bigger for retailers . Years ago, it was buying your holiday necessities. Now it is more than that. Are trying to stretch that. This is the first year they are stretching it out. Last year they tried to stretch it out, but retail sales were up around 3 . It was not huge or amazing, this year they are stretching it out. Walmart, they started offering cyber deals on monday. They started offering holiday deals november 1. Point,t year, to your sales were ok, but that goes back to it can only work if you have the consumer there with money to spend. David my understanding is there is a shift toward mobile. Of onlinene third sales were from mobile. So if you are a retailer and you have an app and your site is kind of clunky, see you. Stephanie a lot of could not handle the traffic. Niemann market Neiman Marcus was jammed up all weekend long. Shannon amazon was slow for amazon. Real quick on amazon, we are talking about retail sales are up 3 . Amazons black friday was up 21 . They were up 28 on thanksgiving. That is the type of growth we are seeing online. Mass, do you have something . Guru at bloomberg was talking about sdn, and internet retail etf. This is sdn in white. It is up 25 in the last 12 months. It includes some internet and nonretail stocks. Facebook has been trying to break into retail but is not really there yet. This is srt, the spider straight up retail play. You can see the split in the trends between the is two etfs. Stephanie matt miller, i love it when you give us the trends. Shannon pettypiece, Carl Riccadonna. We will have much more on retail ahead. We will be talking air pollution in beijing. Sure, tv has evolved over the years. Its gotten squarer. Brighter. Bigger. Its gotten thinner. Even curvier. But whats next . For all binge watchers. Movie geeks. Sports freaks. X1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. Stephanie look at that. Our Nations Capital is looking fantastic this morning. They are anticipating a decision from the imf on whether it will yuan in its reserve basket. Its a great day to be