Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Go 20160307 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Go March 7, 2016

State. He was at united arab emirates, where he spoke to troops. He says the u. S. Has carried out 1800 airstrikes against Islamic State since october. Angela merkel says she hoping for talks to be cut,. Angela merkel and other european leaders are holding an emergency summit in brussels today. They want turkey to do more to stop migrants. Nancy reagan is being remembered as the first lady who nurtured the political career of her husband, Ronald Reagan. She died yesterday. The couple met when they were both actors. Illegalaigned against drug use and became a advocate of stem cell research. She died at 94. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i am caroline hyde. Matt i quickly want to touch on iron ore. I am looking at the generic contract here, but there are a number of different contracts you could follow. Here we see a 17. 3 jump. There are others where you can chart a 21. 5 jump. Iron ore is all of a sudden rising by 1 5 of its value in one day, a story that we cannot ignore. We will continue to cover this story. China, and what we heard from them over the weekend, and what they have done over the past few weeks, has sent Global Markets in a flurry. We are seeing losses across the board. S p futures down about nine points, dow jones, contracts down 54 points. Down by about a half a percent at this point. In europe, if you look at the cash trade, you can see losses across the board. Bigger losses than that on the regional index, the main 3 ftse, cac, and dax. It is the miners that are coming down. Iron ore is sort of a standalone in this huge jump. A lot of the metals already rallied up last week. We saw a huge gain in miners like rio tinto. They are now down after what a lot of investors and analysts have said where rising too quickly. Iron ore up 66 since december when you think about volatility and what it is doing to investors and traders, a 66 move during choppiness is why traders are having a brutal year. It is like a never ending case of vertigo. Matt it is a massive story. That is one of the things that sent a lot of people into gold. Lets look at what gold is doing today. Oil is a hot story because it continues to climb. Now we see 36. 47. Nymex crude rising half a percent. 1 10 of 1 this morning. Gold has been on fire. Iron ore, 66 . , up is enable market itself 21 from its lows in december. It is because of a lot of that volatility that people have climbed into gold. Story that weher have been following a lot. Copper has been on fire. Let me go ahead and pull up a terminal chart for you here. Here you can see that the price has just rocketed up and inflows have been an incredible on copper. A lot of people are saying copper is overbought. You can see that copper has gone from weakness to strength in such a short amount of time, that it is now in the overbought position, and a lot of people are saying be wary of that. Driving nations to build, and that is what is driving test the question is, how will it hold up to a how will it hold up today echo how will it hold up today . Perverse here is the part that i know you love. Ahead of the ecb meeting, the market tends to hold back and like it because they feel like mario draghi is going to step in with the bazooka loaded up. So while the fundamentals in europe do not look good from a markets perspective, those who own assets are saying come to us, help us out, put the safety net under the market. Does Central Bank Intervention help economies, or does it merely help those who hold assets . Matt what is also interesting is the currency. Take a look at the euro. 1. 0956. W at stephanie, you were out on friday. I said that the euro would fall because of the divergence trade. I lost that debt. Rose up, even after we got i lost that bet. It rose up. Level that we. 10 were after mario draghi started using his bazooka even though we have a fed that raised rates one time and looks like it is still going to one or two times been ecb that has gone negative and could go further negative, there has not really been much action in is not as, or there lot anymore in this divergence trade. I was talking to neil dutta this morning, and he said there is not a lot of room left there, even if you see a little more actual divergence. It has already been priced in. Stephanie if you look at china, we know the Chinese Government is trying to shift china policy economy, trying to control as much as a possible to shift chinas economy. Trying to control as much as they possibly can. Fallen by 29s have billion since january. I turn to you. When you look at china and you say as the reserve keeps dropping, how long can they hold it together as they shift to a new economy . Of course, they have an enormous amount of reserves, and they can lose billions and billions and still be the largest holder of reserves in the world. I think it is an indication that things are not going so well, but i would not equate debt to china entering a crisis zone. Stephanie we are going to cover a lot more on china in a moment. David the National Peoples congress is meeting in beijing. Premier outlined the plan before congress. Is inergs haidi lun beijing. Haidu the consensus seems to be that there will be a 7 target for gdp growth, 3 for inflation. It tells us what the priority is with asian policymakers, and the shortterm growth is par as as opposed to and also deleveraging has been a key issue for a number of economists. This range, which we have not had since 1995, is not particularly high and does not give them enough of a buffer space. Interestingly, perhaps more so than the topline number, is how beijing uses debt. We have the fiscal deficit being widened, essentially a debt ceiling being raised. And also the monetary by six , theonetary basics there nominal gdp is expected to carry along this year. David what specifics have they given us on how they will reach these targets . Is this fiscal stimulus . With the increase in the deficit, is that mainly tax cuts or spending more money . When it comes to these deductions that will be put through, these are fairly small things. Boostend to try to consumption because beijing wants consumption to be the new driver of growth. It has not been able to make up we did not expect any kind of reform measures coming out of congress. Al peoples this is not the platform for that kind of thing. Looking at fiscal policy, they will stay within a accommodative Monetary Policy. More will be this borrowing. These will be the drivers of trying to hit that 6. 7 percent gdp. Bloomberg economists here are saying that the situation is you have debt growing, growth slowing, and it appears that beijing may very well hit that 6. 5 target by the end of the year. But in doing so, they will be digging themselves into a deep structural hole. David part of that issue is reform capacity, particularly with coal and steel. That infringes on unemployment. What has premier least as part of this plan . Heidi couc have seen a rise up in pockets where we have had these companies where workers have gotten pretty irate. This was maybe the biggest disappointment from the work report because we had very scant details, saying that they would deal with companies, giving very little color to of the game plan is, not giving any numbers about how many people would be laid off. On saturday,he npc we had report suggesting that up to 6 million workers would be laid off over the next three years. Cominge million of those from the steel and coal sectors, which are suffering from extreme overcapacity problems. No sense of timing, implementation, how it would be rolled out. There is an overall sense with the topline growth number that beijing is putting on Structural Reforms in favor of popping up of propping up nearer term growth. David we have gotten news out of china on their capital reserves, and that they have drawn down at a lower rate than was expected. Of thatindication their capital flows are reducing . Haidi not as bad as perhaps we have seen, given that we had the record 500 billion worth in terms of the depletion of the foreign reserve pause that china had last year. There is a sense that the yuan is enjoying a couple of months of stabilization. We had the shock devalue of course, wish fake things out a little bit. Beijing has not been strengthening or weakening the currency significantly either way. They are also talking up this new currency reserve basket that is a Reference Point because beijing basically does not want to get into a decision where every time the u. N. Depreciates every time the yuan depreciates against the u. S. Dollar, there is a panic in the market. Borrowing costs are staying low, and expectations of further rate cuts will continue to put downward pressure on the yuan, downward pressure when it comes to foreign reserves capital leaving the country as well. David bloombergs haidi lun. You talked in your book about the china that we talk about every day here. It strikes me as we look at weent xi now remember tiananmen square. That was stephanie even if he follows, can he fill his shoes . Jeff the thing is, it is a different china. Deng xiaoping was the right guy for those times. China was starting from a very low base. Everything was about growth. Everything was about exports. It is a different china and a different world right now. I think that the current president of china really does not feel Deng Xiaoping really does not fill Deng Xiaopings shoes. He is trying to follow a very similar model, a tight communist government with an open economy. Stephanie can you have that . Jeff that is the point. You cannot are there is no other major country in the world that sets the growth rate. This is really an old kind of idea. It is from the old soviet fiveyear plan. You set a target and you make it. David they had terrible consequences. Jeff terrible consequences. If you hear everything to a growth rate, that is not a market economy. All this discussion that we are growthabout, was the are the , 6. 9 reserves going down a couple billion here or there that is really not that big issue. The big issue is whether a country this big, this complex, can be managed by a handful of people in a communist party right at the center. Sooner or later, i think the answer to that is no. The risk thatt is they create things like these fiveyear targets, and cynics who do not believe in their data financially engineer their data until they get to those targets . Jeff that is it. They manipulate everything to get to that growth number. So all the other stuff is derivative of a political target , and they cannot make that cannot not make that target, and part because they would lose so much face, and the whole system would be revealed as a sham. Sooner or later, they have to get out of this box. From a political standpoint, it is the one thing that the president of china now has copied Deng Xiaoping, and that tighting that markets, central communist control, and in 2016 and over the next five years, there will be enormous strain on that model. Stephanie i am thrilled to say you will be with us for the rest of the hour. Up next comment e. U. Leaders are meeting in brussels today. The countries, the people, and the economy affected. Stephanie you are watching bloomberg television. Now it is time for mobile go. For global go. Ryan chilcote is in brussels. A solution cannot possibly be on the table, but what is the hope . What is the goal . The goal is to find a solution, and to find a solution to this refugee crisis that is not sort of an ad hoc buttrybycountry solution, one that all 28 can Work Together on. They have been trying this for a while he they have not been successful. 1. 2 million refugees have arrived since last year. It is probably the biggest european refugee crisis they have seen since the second world war. What they want to do is make sure that they keep the borders within the schengen countries inside the e. U. Open because what you have now is countries putting up borders on an ad hoc basis, to stop the flow of refugees. Stephanie how bad has the Economic Impact been thus far . It has to be the economies that are going to finally drive this to make a change. Ryan yeah. Economically speaking, it has been very difficult, in ,articular for some countries lets say in the frontline countries like italy and specifically greece. That is one of the reasons why greece has been saying you need to provide us with Financial Systems, lean on the tourists to make sure that lean on the turks to make sure that and even keeping their own country afloat, so you need to get us help from the quartet, the new name for the troika. They have 26 billion of the 86 billion euros they have been promised so far and they want the rest of the money. At the imf another constituents have been dragging their feet, saying now that we have this refugee problem, you do have to help us. Now that we head into spring, how much worse is it going to get . Greece is in a bad state. Ryan it could get a lot worse, because if you think about the refugee numbers from the last six months, they have been declining from about 7000 refugees making the perilous trip from turkey to greece every single day, to about 2000 per day right now. So the number has been falling. But as you point out, it has been very cold. So year on year, the numbers have been way up. The big concern is as a gets warmer, more refugees will be coming. So the main goal of this conference is to convince turkey to stop the flow of refugees. Turkey has already been given 3 billion euros to help in that process. And in addition to that, if you can imagine, jerky getting many of the refugees back that the European Union does not want ins turkey getting many of the refugees back at the European Union does not want inside its borders. Ryan chilcote, we are hoping for some process some progress out of those meetings. David over the weekend, bonnell wonp won donald trump two states. Bloomberg washington chief megan murphy who better to explain this then megan . She joins us from washington. Starting with republicans, who had a good weekend and who had a bad weekend . Megan it was another topsyturvy weekend. We saw donald trump prevail in two states he was expected to win, continuing his momentum going into the michigan contest. We also saw ted cruz perform unexpectedly well, especially in maine. Ted cruz ended up taking it by a substantial margin. Who had a bad weekend was marco rubio. He finished a distant third and fourth, and he seems unable to get the kind of momentum he needs to really solidify his candidacy as the establishment candidacy of choice. He really needs to start to perform much better. He has all his bets on florida, his home state. If he does not win that race, his race is over. David i heard some talk over the weekend, and it may be just talked, that there might be pressure for rubio to pull out before florida. If he gets beaten there, he may damage himself. Is there anything to that . Megan there is pressure in challenging donald trump, people had not expected how much of the antiestablishment wave we would see, not only people going behind donald trump, but in ted cruz as well. Voters are saying we are rejecting everything washington and the perceived establishment is selling. Rubio also has a money issue. His campaign is not flush. He has not been a successful as many people thought he would in attracting the huge wave of money behind his campaign. There is going to be pressure on him to rethink. Is it because the Republican Party is so splintered . John kasich has been wall street backers, but more wall street money has been put into an antitrump push. Are exactly right. It is splintered, just as the field is. In some cases, the establishment is waiting on the sidelines to really pick someone they can put their money behind. The problem is, that candidate has not emerged. Ted cruz is not of a wall street guy. Donald trump for now is not a big wall street guy either. They do not want to pour more money after bad, like jeb bush, put in over 100 million and had nothing to show for it. Globalization and trade took it on the nose. Jeff at least they are talking about it. One of the big omissions really in the whole debate at the moment, all the people running, is that they have underestimated how significant Global Forces are to everything that is happening in the american economy. You just cannot talk about the national economy. It is a Global Economy. Stephanie when you saw last night, was it a reminder for the rest of the country of a wakeup are inow grave things michigan . Question, but it was a very high quality debate. Stephanie it was. No namecalling. David thank you very much for being with us. This week is a big week for central banks. Find out what the fed and the ecb have in store for us in the markets per Jeffery Gardner will be right here by Jeffrey Garten will be right here by our side. Stephanie you are watching bloomberg go. We are looking at equity futures down in new york across the board. Of china following markets in europe, we are taking a leg down. The story of globalization and york, in new lets get you some first word news. Lyn the u. S. And south korea have begun their annual military exercises and north korea warns it is targeted both countries with nuclear weapons. Democratic president ial candidates faceoff in another debate in flint, michigan. Frontrunner Hillary Clinton attack Bernie Sanders over the government rescue of automakers. He was against the auto bailout. In january of 2009, i voted to save the auto industry. He voted against the money that ended up saving the auto industry. Carolyn meanwhile, sanders accused clinton of voting for trade deals he says were disastrous for workers. Former president jimmy carter says he no longer needs treatment for cancer. Less than seven months ago, he revealed he had a cancer moved to his brain. Global news 24 hours a day. David tom, it is time for the morning mustread. Nancy reagan, who passed away. Bloomberg news, a list of influential first ladies always includes but not usually mrs. Reagan. They have scores of telephone conversations at the expense of many, but as mr. Hunt precisely, mr. Clark with jeff carter here today, we have some terrific perspective on the power powerful first ladies you must have seen in the white house over the years. It is a delicate issue, there is a lot. She wase he was up often given credit for his for her husbands public speaking. Her credit, sa

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