Surprises. Thats how we started with jpmorgan. Premarket, futures, where are we . Points. Res now up 99 the big story in the last 20 minutes, a bit from jpmorgan, and upside surprise. That upside surprises what takes is higher come up by 2. 73 in the premarket. Couple of fx to a pairs for you. Some dollar strengthened the g 10 today. 13 . At wti, the output freeze meeting in the rumor mill and the rumor mill is in full swing. Crime organized profiteers have raided the offices of the Panama Papers law firm. The rainfall is the leak of millions of documents on tax havens set up for wealthy international clients. The attorney general searched other subsidiaries of the firm in panama and the firm has denied any wrongdoing. Some 3500 candidates mine for he 250 parliamentary seats assad said he and his wife cast their votes in the Assad Library in damascus. Vice president is drawing up plans to form a Transitional Government in brazil as dilma allegationsrpens that he is the leader of a coup against her. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Gura. Vid jpmorgan first order profits dropping by 7 . Profits fell on lower trading and Investment Banking revenue. Perhaps not as bad as we were anticipating. Michael moore joins us now from london. The first thing people would have looked at come apart from the overall numbers, the exposure to oil and gas. What did we learn there . Provisions their continued to move higher come over 500 million that continues to be a spot. On the metals and mining front, they set up another 160 million there. All of commodities is an issue. Jon a lot of stories in the First Quarter. A lot of them were scary, primarily around the potential of that profitability would fall. You dont see it in the numbers, story spoiled by the facts in todays numbers. Would you say that . Michael this is a story of lowered expectations. Roe was not great, only 9 for the company. That interest margin continue to climb. To see be interesting whether that is a jpmorgan specific story and whether they have some advantages with their deposit base there or whether other banks can do the same. A 2. 3 , the Net Interest Margin definitely higher than analysts had anticipated. David return on tangible equity, how are they doing on that measure . They are at 9 on the basic are oe basic roe, below what analysts determined their cost of equity to be. They have a goal on the rot cited to be in the mid teens and they are certainly short of that at this point. Given everyone knew it would be a bad quarter, it is certainly not the end of the world, but well short of their goal. David michael said it well, this is a game of expectations. We have hr comparing both with estimates and with the First Quarter last year actual spared they beat their estimates but did not do as well as First Quarter last year. Ofard this gets to the core the problem, banking is not a growth industry in the u. S. Well in executing very a difficult banking environment, earnings are down, but not down as much as the street has inspected. There is value here as a stock. The street has expected. Historically, a good entry point. Youe is value there, but have to be a patient investor. Into clipping those 3 coupons. Jon a valuation player at this point. If it is just a valuation play, you keep in mind the upside we have on the stock for jpmorgan. What is the upside for the others . Profit down on the year, down on the year, down on the year. Howard banking is a low multiple cyclical business that lacks growth in this country. Theres a lot of regulatory push back against the banks. The regulators in washington have not been friendly to the banks. I dont think there is a calculator Strong Enough to calculate the number of billions of dollars that jpmorgan has paid the government in the form of fines, mostly for problems , which to bear stearns they acquired at the behest of the government. Did well bybank nothing worse what will the analysts be looking to ask jamie dimon on the call this weekend . S they the fragilitie will be pressing him on . Michael the outlook on the Interest Rate front and the credit front, certainly more about oil and gas and how big of a problem that will grow to be. As howard mentioned come if you are not going to be a growth , itk come a growth story will be about returning capital to shareholders and being a value play. Jpmorgan has indicated they want to return more capital through buyback, through dividends. That will be a topic of discussion as well. David take a step back here and look at the overall business of jpmorgan. Where of the growth areas . Where are the growth areas . Michael credit cards has been going for them over the last couple of years, but theres a lot of competition in that business. American express trying to grow as well. That has been an area of growth. Asset management has been an area of growth. Here are pockets of growth , but so much of these businesses driven by the trading environment, that has been a tough one. Jon just want to get up to speed on what way are where we are trading the market. America up 3. 24 premarket. Wells fargo around 2 . That instinct is always the same, you get one and you have to read across to the others. What the you see in the jpmorgan numbers that would give you optimism about the other numbers . The biggest one is the trading numbers not being as bad as expected. People were thinking maybe would be down 1520 . It was closer to 10 drop yearoveryear. That is the one people are reading across. We will see whether it was in storyy was an industry or whether jpmorgan had some specific gains that help them survive. Vonnie jpmorgan saying they are number one now in u. S. And global m a, beating goldman. Will there be enough m a to go around . Michael the m a is down this year. Last year was a record year. I think jpmorgan will be one of the top two names in m a longerterm. I dont think there has been ipo yet this year. Back, it is cyclical. Theres no business i can think of that as a lower multiple business been trading. You can make a lot of money today and lose it all tomorrow. Its businesses that are fundamentally difficult to make consistently make higher profits year after year. Vonnie howard ward will be staying with us. Jon Michael Moore, thank you for joining us. Jpmorgan, a beat. These and numbers out of china as well. That is next. Chinese export numbers are out. All signs point to stabilization in the economy there. David you are watching bloomberg. Peabody energy filing for chapter 11 maker to protection. The Company Joins for other Coal Companies pursuing bankruptcy amid cheaper natural gas and glut and a hans has agreed to reduce the payouts stemming from his earlier job move is to solve he wasover promised payment of 11. 4 Million Dollars last year as compensation for leaving the higher paid cfo post. Cable workers have walked off the job today, working without a contract since august. The union says they are striking because verizon wants to make layoffs u easier and rely on contract workers. Data out of asia today, chinese exports jumped the most in a year. The worlds secondbiggest economy may be stabilizing. Theslump in february rebound could be due to seasonal factors as well as the pickup and Commodity Prices. For more, i want to bring in our inhouse expert from hong kong. Great to have you with us on the program today. Clearlyptimism quite the markets are trading higher even had of those jpmorgan numbers we got about 40 minutes see solid you, do you signs that financials have started to firm up in china . Undoubtedly, it is a good number. We saw a pickup in demand from key trading partners, such as the u. S. , pick up in shipments of goods. It comes alongside other signals that show the Manufacturing Sector is gradually stabilizing here. If you look at the export numbers today, the problem is, we are comparing it with weak numbers from a year ago. Exports in march of 2015 were the leak weakest in all of last year for china. March follows the Chinese New Year in february when all the factories closed down. Theres been an notable pickup in activity in the month. Rather than looking for upside surprise, it is helpful to see some stability. No surprise to the downside, which is reassuring about china. That is entirely right. The sentiment toward china has improved dramatically. Has not keptmic it pace with that over the last few weeks. We see the yuan holding relatively steady. We are seeing capital outflows still happening, but at a lesser pace. The real estate sector is holding up, we are seeing positive signs on manufacturing. Now a little pickup and exports. Is cyclical stabilization. The underlying structural problems remain. Out the trade between hong kong and china, there is a story there. Speaking of capital outflows, what these chinese are importing from hong kong, you can see that the level of has shotrom hong kong up in a way that we have not seen since 2012. One of the reasons were hearing about this, the chinese are buying things in order to get andr money out of remnant b into hard assets. Vonnie a fascinating chart. Overall imports were down seven points. What does that tell us about the shift, the tilt that china is trying to make to have the consumer be the backbone of the economy . Impact, as theng oil price recovered, the story does not look so bad. The underlying transformation towards consumption in china is happening. Just edit fairly gradual pace. Look at the opening of the shanghai disneyland this week. An indication of how the Chinese Consumer is growing. And serviceson inside of thing is not big enough to fill the gap left by the oil drivers. David the imf weighed in yesterday, taking up their estimate. Where do you think china is headed . Its the story of two economies. The 46 of their gdp that has been focused on fixed asset investment, that is in decline. Were getting a bit of a relief rally there now. That is been the drag on chinese growth. Then, you have the Chinese Consumer. That is the bright spot. Fiveyear consumption is rising, but still around 36 of gdp. That number has to get up. There are concerns there if you have a profits recession on that more heavy Industry Manufacturing side of china, that will filter its way into less employment, pressure on ones and that will way down the private consumption side as well. That is the dichotomy we face in china. Vonnie howard ward sticking with us. Have thanks to enda. Our thanks to enda what retail Sales Numbers could mean for fed policymakers. Jpmorgan earnings pushing higher. Jon we are about one hour away from the open in new york. It is all about the banks and of the open. Beat from jpmorgan, with profit down about 7 on the first order, up 2 on jpmorgan. Citigroup, a similar amount and Goldman Sachs down there, up 1. 4 . Much in focus. Around 13 . 41. 39. The meeting on april 17, can they argree hugh freeze output agreed to freeze output . Matt a lot of interesting notes overnight. I want to kick it off with Louis Vuitton come in the green for a. Ourth consecutive day its biggest intraday gain in two months after Credit Suisse idolatry goods group to its top ticks list, adding margin momentum. Far in 2016. So adding theuisse luxury goods group. Shares of netflix moving higher. The pepper jefferies positive note saying netflix is still the one to beat in the video streaming business. Netflix,en viewers use dominating other Services Like amazon and hulu. Retail Sales Numbers will be coming out in just over one hour from now. Increased by. 4 after declines in both january and february. These data could give some guidance before the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of april. Tell us how important these consumer numbers are for the fomc. Any particular months retail sales number may not be that important. Consumer spending in general is huge because Consumer Spending in total, which includes services, is about 70 of gdp. For the last six months, weve generated 246,000 new payroll jobs in this country on average and some increase in wage rates. The consumer is in good shape. Buyerition to spend, a of cars, we know that. Will be moving directionally beyond cars and outlook for Consumer Spending is pretty good. Not a big number. Vonnie we are at the peak of car sales as well. Does the consumer stop saving . Howard the consumer has been saving a lot. As the Labor Participation rate goes up and the Unemployment Rate goes down, Consumer Spending will be there. I have a lot of confidence, its always been a mistake to underestimate the american consumer. We like to buy things. I think the numbers will come through. Perhapspoint, it will nudge the fed to do something, but not in april. Jon im going through the Jpmorgan Press release. Jamie dimon with a quote the consumer business continues to grow. The u. S. Consumer remains healthy and Consumer Trends are favorable. If youre an investor in the come is that a theme you still want to play . Long the u. S. Consumer . Howard short answer is yes. There are many ways to play that. The Consumer Discretionary part of the stock market is a big chunk of equities. We talk about media and technology, you can play the google, by facebook, retailing iner, or form of home depot, tjx amazon. Theres a wide variety of investments you can seek out were the consumers directly involved. Jon howard ward, thank you for joining us program. This program. Up next, we take you to crude. Could an opec freeze be in the works . We take a look at that, next on bloomberg. Jon good day to the city of london. Tom keene joins us straight off bloomberg radio. Im new European Headquarters our new European Headquarters will appear out of the sky line. That is the focus this morning. The banks leading the gains. Jpmorgan with a beat, profit down 7 in the First Quarter, but it upside surprise. Will that be the theme for the First Quarter earnings . Bank of america up, too. Citigroup up 2 . Says thenald trump republican president ial nomination is being stolen from an. From him. Trump calls the system phony. Ely rigged and this is after ted cruz outmaneuvered him and delegate contests in colorado, north dakota and ohio. It opened of statement from paul ryan saying he will not be a candidate for the 26 and president ial nomination the 2016 president ial nomination. Nearly two in three americans back the nomination of merrick gopand the poll shows the fines may not ultimately hurt the party because the electionyear fight is simply not a big deal. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Thank you so much. Tom keene is here with his morning mustread. The difference between casting. Ing and now tom we came in this morning and burned incense here. Are enough people involved here . Phds come a billy joel wedding tribute band from years ago. What is the weather today . Take a look outside the window. That describes most of our economics. The bluechip advisors, the best human forecasters. Derby over the atlanta fed, new york fed. ,hey benefit is in a gloomy positive 0. 1 and the new york fed incense at 1. 1 . David lets show how this thing works per have a chart from the morning mustread. We have a variety of economic indicators. Tom this is great. David the white line shows where they think the gdp growth is headed. , dobar chart those bars they underperform over perform what is predicted . Tom this is done with the best intentions by really, really smart people. It. E is an alchemy to there is a humility within the certitude. Vonnie falling a little bit. Jon i wonder, who is it for . More than anyone, the markets want some kind of certainty. Data out of china, looks fantastic, then you break down the chart we looked at, the chinese imports from hong kong come up 117 . How can you trust the data when quite clearly come in the second largest economy, you have this point . Tom theres a huge media uproar about the first call in the second call is the third call, we dont even go to the rate. Vonnie sometimes, revisions happen at the end of the year, years later, you look back and gdp was told different than we thought it would be. Dour ana forecast is the atlanta forecast is dour. A great chart that Joe Weisenthal once showed me. From economicses indicators we collect your happen negative. What we have done also is graph the atlanta fed forecast, here it is below the white line, the white line is actual trend gdp. What do you use when you want to chart gdp . I have the change yearoveryear. Tom i call that the Alan Greenspan series. This,itical point on every nation and every system is different. European gdp, jonathan ferros talking greek, quarter on quarter. The only one i know on the planet that can get this right is vonnie quinn. Everyone else screws it up. Jon a good thing we have vonnie quinn alongside us here. The supply side of the equation meeting for the opec members, focusing on the likelihood of reasoning likelihood of reaching a deal to freeze output. Tom petrie joins us now. Great to have you with us. You put freeze, given where production is anyway, is it bullish for crude at this point . Tom probably not. A lot of this is a game i think is being played by the leaders, the saudis and the russians, dealing with setting up the iranians. The iranians will not concede anything, they have made that pretty clearcut. The saudis positioned themselves to do one thing very different from what they said. I expect two steps forward, one step back.