Are headed for a week of gains on the stoxx 600, up to four weeks of losses. Crude is the story. Wti down two percentage points, about 40 bucks a barrel at 40. 66. The Iranian Oil Minister will not be in doha. They are sending a representative. What does that mean for an output freeze prospect for all of them . Lets get to vonnie quinn. Vonnie Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton went on the attack last night, facing off in a debate in brooklyn ahead of new yorks crucial primary. They questioned each others judgment and record, the former secretary of state pushing back hard on criticisms of her decisionmaking. He questions my judgment, but the people of new york voted for me twice to be there senator. And president obama trusted my begment to ask me to secretary of state of the united states. Vonnie the debate was their first meeting since the campaign moved into the empire state. Voters head to the polls tuesday. Another casualty of the panama papers, this time the spanish industry minister. He initially denied any involvement before backtracking. Intensifieds ouster in spain after a newspaper report yesterday. Russian attack planes came dangerously close to a Navy Destroyer in the ball can see this week. State,. Secretary of john kerry, says the u. S. Ship could have opened fire under global news of engagement. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Jon i find them thoroughly entertaining, as many people do. David it is amazing to watch. Funny is that they say it was perfectly safe as we were filing as we were flying hundreds of miles an hour that close to the ship. Jon more signs of stability in china. Today they reported firstquarter gdp was in line with expectations of 6. 7 , just one of several Economic Indicators to be reported throughout the day. Curran, who joins us from hong kong. Good evening. Thank you for joining the program late in your friday. Looking at the data, is the stability move nothing to see do we have to take a deeper look . Enda we do have to take a deeper look, but adding to the narrative is that growth is stabilizing. Markets,y, chinas was confused policy affecting markets around the world. Since then we have seen signs of manufacturing stabilizing, better signs on inflation, exports, and real estate. Taken together, we have gdp comfortably within the governments growth target. And there is the sense that china is stabilizing, but at what cost, and how are they doing this . David retail sales you did not mention, which is up over 10 . Between that shift go retail and services . Enda when you consider what is happening in china over the last quarter the weakening along the capital outflow, the overall fragile nature of chinas economy, if you listen to the big foreign consumer conglomerates working in china, starbucks and apple, they feel there is a pretty optimistic outlook on china. I guess it is not at the pace yet where it is enough to fill the cap fill the gap being left by the oil economy. Vonnie the story talks about a credit card trampoline. I want to talk to matt miller. Matt this is a chart that we have of the outstanding loans here, the new monthly loans. You can see the blue showing that they have soared up to levels higher than 2009. Sales up 70 home year over year, this new credit could explain some of that. David the white line is gdp, right . That wanders down, the credit surges up. Matt thats right. They are trying to boost gdp with that. David how big is this issue . Enda the nearterm narrative is one of stability, but economists are worried that they are resorting to old playbooks, increasing spending, relying more on debt and borrowing, moving away from the marketdriven reforms that are needed to put the economy on a more stable growth future. The worry is that growth has taken over for now, but down the road they may be storing up bigger problems. David thanks for much, enda curran, chief economics editor in asia. What iso talk about going on in china. Lets go back to this credit thing. Credit in itself is neither good nor bad. How much of this is going for productive investment as opposed to Stateowned Enterprises or local governments . That is a very good question, and a lot of that money is going back to these unviable industries steel, Building Materials that have been the root cause of the problem. Is are companies that are simply not viable. And are being kept alive, as a result they feel that that is exporting deflation to the rest of the world. Vonnie yesterday our guest was saying that the ecbs are not industries anymore, they are employment agencies. Is it ok that china is propping them up to keep people employed and social instability down . It is ok, but it is a shortterm view. But china has restructure. You cannot keep an economy going with industries being kept alive by cheap credit that are not sustainable in the long run. China has to take a politically hard decision, to close industries down and move the employment to more productive sectors of the economy. But that is a politically difficult decision, particularly when you have a leader in a party where selfpreservation is a key motive. Cut rates this morning, the markets would cheer. Most people would assume the markets would cheer. At the same time, you have chinas Steel Industry churning record supply. The low rates boost the credit, as you say. So how does china manage this transition at a time where if they do ease, the world complains. If they do not ease, then the world complains. Difficult thing to manage, and they have to manage it carefully. It is a fine line between domestic instability through unemployment, and managing the global stage. There is a productive element. You have seen a reacceleration of housing. Credit is not only going into the zombie industries, it is also feeding into the housing market. We have seen the acceleration in housing because credit is coming into the consumer area. As the homes are built, there is increasing domestic demand for steel. That is one important thing to take on board as well. David we had the cio of cow stirs a couple of days ago. Negativedecidedly outlook on china. Economy is going through an enormous transition from a manufacturing economy to a services economy. That will take time and you will have rough patches. Look at the employment numbers and retail sales numbers. I think china is really in a flat patch where they will not see growth. It does not hurt the usa, but it hurts him merging markets in other regions of the world. David he was more explicit with us. He said it is actually a recession. What is your view about where the economy is overall in china . Simon i have always said that the level is less important than the trend. I think we are in a stabilization, but are we at a point of real acceleration or stabilization followed by a steady decline . Anybody looking for the reacceleration the real acceleration the transition from manufacturing to consumer is important in that regard as well. When youre fighting against capital and fighting against labor, capital and labor have been an asset to china in the past. That is what has underpinned chinese growth at the turn of the decade. Now capital inflows are not working for you. Demographic,e a and aging labor market not working for you. When you are working against those, the only way you can boost growth is through productivity gains, which are harder to eke out in Consumer Services than they are in manufacturing. As the economy progresses, inevitably the growth way will slow the growth rate will slow. Very much for being with us on the program. Next up, it is deal or no deal in doha. Crude, brand, and wti retracing the rally this morning. Vonnie bloomberg you are watching you are watching bloomberg. Lloyd blankfein is embarking on the biggest costcutting pushing years. The Company Recently began dismissing more support staff and is increasingly rejecting banker spending on airfare, hotels, and entertainment, and directly serving clients. Vast Global Market prices are at the top end of the market range. Valuing the company at 1. 8 million. The company raise 253 Million Dollars after 13 million shares were sold at 19 each. Thestors are looking for deal to live in the ipo market, which has been hampered by stock market volatility. Chinas economy gathered strength last month, thanks to a spur in new credit that helps the Profit Sector rebound. New credit, industrial outlook, investment, and retail sales all picked up in march and beat analyst forecasts or that is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Jon some of the Worlds LargestOil Producers are meeting. The iea says it can end the global got thats the global glut this year. Can end the global glut this year. Ryanore, we have to get to chilcote in london. It appears the focus now to iran is sending print is that good news this morning . Ryan it is good news, but i am not sure how relevant it is. In the end, we have learned that the iranians are going to send their opec governor. That is effectively the Oil Ministers number two. At the end of the day, the iranians have been clear that they are not reaching a cap on production until they reach presanction levels. They are nowhere near pretension levels right now. Number two has no ability or power to negotiate. It just sends a message that our position is nonnegotiable. I am not sure how important it is that the iranians are there in a capacity to make decisions. Overhange possible from iran has been affecting the oil market for some time. Do you have any sense of how realistic it is for iran to ramp up investors . A fair amount of investment has to be done, doesnt their . Aboutthey are producing 3. 3 Million Barrels right now. That leaves them about half a billion barrels shy of where they want to be by the middle of the year, and upping their production by that much, most analysts would say it is a very big ask. For the saudis and others gathered in the room, iran has not been quite as much of a threat as they might have been worried about. Meetings we go into the on sunday, are we looking for a good result or just avoiding a bad result . The iea has already said that oversupply is coming down. If they walk away in anger, that might be a bad result. But are they really going to affect the overall oil price . Ryan they could affect the oil price. It depends on what side of the equation you stand, whether you are a consumer or a producer. The ministers going into the meeting will be well aware that if they are seen as getting together and getting into a big argument and leaving without a deal, that could be ruinous for the oil price. Since they first got together in that sort of mini group, with the russians and the saudis and ,he venezuelans and the qataris production has risen 30 . You can see much of that 13, 14 increase in the price of oil over those two months fannish. Vanish. Those two months matt the point of this chart, you can see it dwindling lower and lower. Much tolly do not have boost anyway. Iran can add one Million Barrels per day, but the rest of them, other than saudi arabia, cannot add anything to the global supply, can they, ryan . Ryan that is right. Remember, if they do agree on a cap, they would be capping production at january levels when many of them were producing more than they are now. The saudis were producing more. Only the russians are matching what they were producing. Everybody has been getting ready for this cap by increasing production as much as possible so that if they do agree to a cap, they have no chance of going to where the cap was. Vonnie we are looking at saudi arabia and russia, but no but what about the nonopec countries . Can they save the day . Ryan at the end of the day, the real question is, who is going whoake room when i were is going to make room for iranian oil when it does come to market . To doudis are unlikely it, so from the nonopec countries, you have to watch russia because it is russia that has teamed up geopolitically with iran. I would keep my eyes on them. The other nonopec companies are not even showing up mexico will not be there. Brazil is not there. Bloombergs Ryan Chilcote coming to us from london. Coming up, his Goldman Sachs headed for a rough patch . That is coming up next on bloomberg. Jon this is bloomberg. Futures a little bit soft, 27 point on the dow. Three, basic gains in the u. S. Looking ahead to the doha meeting, right here right now, onsian crude to write at 20 may 3. Dollaryen softer as well. A little bit of risk off the head of the open for Global Financial markets. Lets go to matt miller for some of the big analyst calls on wall street. Matt a big call from cls a on currencies. Chinas u. N. Will tumble i19 percent by the end of the year. Will tumble by 19 to the end of the year. Is amar gill. Ere a weaker level than any of the other 44 analyst projections that we track here at bloomberg. He is a street low. Here you see year today down 3 10 of 1 . Goldman sachs is taking t costcutting push in years. We expect them to be the lowest of any quarter in a decade. Joining us now is michael moore, bloombergs finance reporter out of london. How are investors reacting to what is going on at goldman . Michael this is certainly in reaction to the environment and what investors want typically when you have a tough environment. They want you to control what you can, and that is more on the cost side than the revenue side right now. This should be well received. Jon that is a big question, isnt it . The kind of expensive cuts we are talking about are expensive, people going down and having extravagant meals, people going from one office to another in europe. They are the types of things that they want to cut back on. Is there enough space there . Michael it is not as big of a piece as taking a big chunk out of the competition or the headcount, but it is more immediate. As you mentioned, when you do a big layoff, you have severance costs and it can take almost a year until you start seeing some of those savings. This is more immediate, but it is more tweaking on the edge. It is trying to whether a storm here. Vonnie a couple of things that have heard is that headcount has gone up since 2009. There was of 2009, 32,500. Michael one thing you see with Goldman Sachs, while the headcount has gone up, the senior headcount has been going down. They have been hiring a lot more at jr. Levels, so the pyramid has got steeper, if you will. I think you are starting to see that across wall street as they try to have enough people to execute the business while keeping compensation costs low. David i am not sure what that is. Matt, will you explain to us . Matt speaking of compensation costs, i have Lloyd Blankfeins here. This axis shows us the threeyear annualized return to shareholders. Goldman sachs is this dot here. This group is underperforming all of that index almost. However, Lloyd Blankfein is getting paid more than almost any of those ceos. The only one who gets paid more is larry fink at blackrock. Matt miller, thank you very much. Michael moore from london, thank you for joining us. Next up, the brawl in brooklyn last night. That is next on this program. Two hours away, futures softer ahead of the open here in new york. Jonathan this is bloomberg. Ftse 100 down by. 5 of 1 . Is selling his penthouse apartment just behind st. Pauls cathedral. Tom i am moving across. Ofwas like mongolia are one those. Im moving on the other side of the river. We just need to look at it and not be in it. Jonathan it is time for first word news with vonnie quinn. Vonnie belgiums transport minister has resigned after a report detailing absences in security. That led to this resignation and they said the oversight of security measures at the nations airport were flawed and had serious insufficiencies. To goent obama is set into the debate after the call remains it europe britain will remain in the European Union. The 20 trying to keep nations together. The California Panel is recommending the trust manson follower, after more than four decades after she members went to prison, and the decision will undergo review from the board. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our journalists and news bureaus around the world. As you heard, tom keene is here for the morning mustread. We are talking about negative rates. Had a talk about this important stigma. From columbia, bring it up and he is always roughly everybody up in economics. This is a negative rates. Posen says he disagrees. The widely documented search for yield complies that many investors will ship their portfolios toward riskier assets we have all seen that exposing the economy to grade of financial instability. The big lesson from all of this is captured by the familiar idea, garbage in, garbage out. Central banks continue to use the wrong model, they will continue to do the wrong thing. Tough language. David one thing he takes fault with is he says, it does not take into account thanks. So they assume that if they reduce the Interest Rates that the banks will start loaning money. Tom you could addition effort to big to fail banks to the rest of the Banking Industry, which is like, will you stop screwing around with things . What was great in the debate was the professor saying that negative rates have a place but they have yet to have the courage to really do them. And then pozen saying they work in denmark, smaller country but not bigger. Jonathan i think this is far more nuanced than people appreciate and i wonder why this has become a huge topic of discussion when the ecb has had negative break since the summer of 2014 and denmark longer. If you look at the fx channel, if performed perfectly well for denmark. Likewise switzerland. This helps them put a lid on the currency. I think the conversation has shifted and the gets more attention he kissed the banks are in focus, the credit channel in focus and that is what i think is probably the shift in the last few months. Vonnie anyway, i am going to say, what are the alternatives being proposed . An alternativeot to be proposed, there is a set of debates and this goes back to data dependency and that phrase of actual progress. They have to see the actua