Takeover. You will get a good idea of on the session. The latest on the debate and a third time unlucky as msci snubs hina shares. Clinton leaving trump in the latest bloomberg poll. Lets begin with the fed. Theres zero perfect unlike liehood of a fed increase today. Lets go to carl. He is chief bloomberg economist. What are we expecting this afternoon . If we can mix british politics and fed policy together, we can invoke the quotation from margaret thatcher, the lady is not returning. It will apply to Janet Yellens approach in the press Conference Today as well. Shes going to play a cool hand. She wont specifically cite him but it could come up in the press conference, particularly during the q a. The fed is very much aware of international risks and how this is playing into their policy strategy. However, i would say more important is the much more important is the domestic outlook. So she will not be returning because shes going to be somewhat dismissive of the wobble in the labor market as of may and i think she will hold on to the notion that the fed could raise rates multiple times this year. Mid year language likely has to change and she gave a hint of that in her last public remarks where she said rate increase could be appropriate in the coming months and that could include either july or september. One of the things we are hearing is its not the markets are determining what the fed is doing right now. If shes paying attention to market what, would they be telling her right now carl shes not going to be dictated by the markets and the markets are saying no rate increases until february of next year. Thats one reason why she will she will have to push back that tone. Theres little to gain by reinforcing the market view, instead by taking a somewhat tougher tone. Im not going to say hawkish but a tougher tone, maybe she can start to steer Market Sentiment back toward the notion of a july or september rate increase which has not been priced in at present. Thank you, carl. And later, tune in for other special coverage of the fed decision at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg radio. And expect lots of questions on the next subject. The referendum eight days away. The last 24 hours, five polls all showing the same thing. Leaf in the lead. Mark, give me the latest. The big question is whether they will change the strategy. Hes doubling down. Hes doubling down. Crisis. Faces a fiscal he warned there would be a 30 billion pound black knoll the finances and he says because of that that they will cut the spending in health, education and of course in defense as well and will get tax sized. Lets listen to the chancellor. Rather than finding out the consequences for the nations budget after we quit the e. U. , the public should know what they are before they take that choice so they can avoid these consequences altogether. We want to stabilize the economy filling a 30billion pound black hole would cause difficult tax rises. 57 conservative m. P. s have written the letter saying its absurd that the chancellor could threaten further us a terity. They say he would have to step down if he did as much and it goes against the conservative partys election manifesto. They said they wouldnt cut spending and wouldnt raise taxes. Continue divisions within the conservative party. You want to have this developed in the next week or no. Looking at the position, youve got a flotilla on the thames going to the leaves. The county of nigel saying if you vote, you will see more tax hikes and more spending cut which is are in the polls now. The bookie seems to be chasing the polls on the moment. What are your thoughts on that . Five polls in the last two days have put brexit ahead. The movement is very much ahead. There was a poll last night from comrades for the Sun Newspaper who is pro brexit as well which could remain 46 or 45 ahead but a month ago remain more 11 points ahead. William held said yesterday by the weekend, brexit would be favorite within the bookies. Momentum is with brexit, which is why as you say, the chancellor is doubling down. And john, just to highlight the concern within the government, within the remain cab, dont forget who was standing next to the chancellor today, the former chancellor, darling. Theyre putting out all the stops tell the british people we need you to vote to stay in the e. U. Truely stunning. You wonder whether darling would have chosen a fiscal policy that was to tighten policy after the event of a brexit. The fact that theyre sharing a platform is stunning. Three times not the charm. Chinas domestic equity were denied entry for a third time. For more, lets bring in economic correspondent in hong kong, third time. Yet chinese stocks are up. What happened . Good morning. They said it was a historical hat they would get in. One is the credibility gap that china has with investors around the world. Those Global Investors are lukewarm with china. And it showed just how far china has to go before it sbi grates. S economy and the market the u. S. Loan is much more than expected as we saw the First Quarter coming back at the expense of some of those reforms. This is a big delay that were seeing in china right now. Of course china needs to rein in. We had a warning that they have to the authorities are aware of their problems. The issue is they cant rein in that credit. They want growth to hit 6. 5 . The number was a big the government and regulators try to clamp down there. With a big increase in the bank lending and thats keeping the economy taking over and thats the problem for the government, how to manage keeping the economy on track while tackling their big debt problems. Thank you. The latest Bloomberg Politics poll is out and Hillary Clinton is leading donald trump. Lets bring in megan murphy here with us in new york. Megan, what did this poll say and most important, this is the first poll since the tragedy in orlando over the weekend. It is the first poll since that tragedy. And what this poll shows is a stunning gap that Hillary Clinton has opened up according to this bloomberg poll. A 12point lead over donald trump. And what this really shows is not only has trump lost a tremendous amount of ground owing to this really torrid week he had with controversial comments about a judge with his very unwelcomed comments in the wake of that orlando tragedy and also but rising enthusiasm in support for Hillary Clinton among the people who would be more inclined to vote for her. Were not just seeing that donald trump is fading after having such a controversial week. We actually also see that Hillary Clinton may be picking up enthusiasm among supporters that she is really going to need to carry her home as we head into this general election cycle. There was some news in there that might concern her and thats the wrong trackright track critical number. Whats always been interesting about the hillhilldonald trump divide is who is going to be more successful various different things. We did go out into the field with several questions in the wake of the orlando tragedy and one thing showed that donald trump still has the slight majority among voter who is perceive him as stronger as National Security when asked. If an incident like this had happened a year later when the president ial race is over, who would you want to see in the presidency and he still has a slim majority among voters. 4541 in this poll. Lets remind ourselves he had a much wider, wider margin among voter who is value National Security which is going to be one over the defining themes in this election. He needs to expand that base and support to really have a credible shot at the presidency. If that continues to narrow, if theyre both seen as equally president ial on issues like the economy and national issues, Hillary Clinton will take it. Its just on a demographic. Its just down to numbers. John . Thank you very much, david. Check out a markets. Turn it upside down. You get an idea of where we trade. 45 points higher. Inching back towards that 6,000 points level. Stronger swiss, yen and pound. Today, stronger pound. Sterling appreciating. A 142 handle earlier in the session. We trade at 141. Unemployment, an 11year low in the u. K. In the bond market, you see the fee. Yesterday, 38 yield over in the u. K. Today, we push high. Up four basis points. Here is one were talking about throughout the day. Crude, fiveday losing streak. Alex . Alex a risk on rally without oil. What does that mean . Coming up, it is the countdown to the fed decision. The markets put the odds of the d hike at zero as brexit weighs. Plus, were talking fed and Monetary Policy with bank of next. s jonathan lets get a quick check of the markets. Equities firm. Futures up. Dow futures up 42 points. P futures positive by almost. 25. Rebound in europe with 88 points. And 49 on the ftse 100. Euro sterling pulling back from the 80 pens level. Were down by a third of 1 . It is a weaker yen story at 106 27 yield, a touch higher ahead of the fed decision or nondecision. 4 . Down by he fed in focus. Is june really live . June is definitely a live meeting but what we do depends on how the economy is going to evolve. I think it certainly could be a meeting in which action can be taken. All meetings are live. If we did come in with data thats the long lines are expecting, the case will be very strong. The fundamental are Strong Enough that were likely going to be removing accommodation more quickly than as currently anticipated in Financial Markets. I support moving slowly with Interest Rates adjustment toward more normal level but i view the current level as too low for todays economic conditions. At this stage, its im inconclusive about how im going to be thinking about june, but i would not take it off the table. Jonathan how quickly things change in a month. June not looking so live. Emmanuela june isnt live, is it . Theyre probably looking back and thinking they probably shouldnt be so confident in june. The fed has the same Information Set as the markets have. They were trying remind markets that its a live meeting. Weve got hit with the weak Inflation Expectations data. At this point, june is not a possibility. Theyre going to stay on hold prove thought we make it a hike but it depends on how the data evolves. Alex will we see fed president s downgrade their like from two to one . That seems to be the most pivotal question. The average dots they move. And then reflecting the reality that growth is slow. So that key kind of data point is going to stay steady. The rhetoric will tone down a bit. The g. D. P. Dot will come down a bit for the Fourth Quarter of 2016. O within the sep, some disappointing changes. Make a prediction. Will she refer brexit . I think the press will really focus on that and she will have to address with how it matters for the fed. The e. U. Referendum whether its china and she will hammer on Inflation Expectations. These are the themes that will really come up in the press conference may not come up within the statement itself and she will have to acknowledge that the look has gotten more cloudy. Alex they still need to keep markets on track at some point and i have a great function in my terminal here. Mipr. Lled thats where we are right now. But the dont have it. Wait a minute. It shows that basically, the market expectation has rerated so much in just two weeks, so quickly to the downside that you almost think she has to be hawkish just to keep the markets on track. Theres going to be a reminder that theyre going to be exiting. What we dont know is how quickly that looked like. So yellen would have to encourage markets that say look, the consumer is still strong. And the Unemployment Rate is coming down. So fundamentally, there are reasons to feel encouraged about the economy. The baseline is strong when all of the risks that makes the fed more cautious and when theyre asymmetric, youve got to wait longer. Jonathan one of the reasons is june is no longer live is brexit and the miss on an ugly payroll report. But you find it hard to find other data points to reconcile with that measure. What do you see in the labor markets right now . I think it still looks very healthy. Were trenting down for jobless rate but the fact that were seeing that trend down as well, thats a sign that were getting a tightening in labor market which is could be good for wages and broad income growth. The data is very volatile. Its subject to heavy revisions. Weve got to take it with a grain of salt and the trend is quite strong. So the labor market still looks strong. The consumer 3. 5 for real consumption growth in the second quarter. The consumer is still alive and kicking. The domestic market is strong. What do you look at the incorporate numbers . Were still seeing signs of g. D. P. And labor income to g. D. P. Its still relatively low. Labor costs are low. So there still is an incentive for companies to continue hiring. Wages are rising but theyre rising gradually and the overall labor costs is still relatively low. Alex you dont think we are going to see the downgrade in projections. But by 50 basis points in not that long of a time and that has big implications for the broader tightening cycle. What do you think we see there . Longer term is less. Definitely the average dot, the mean dots will move on. Median is less certain. But i think itll be a question of whether the fed is willing to capitulate on that. They want to remind markets were on a hiking trajectory. We think they will stick with the current trajectory. Jonathan thank you for joining us, emmanuela. Alex coming up, another day and another warning from the u. K. Remain camp. Find out what theyre saying today. Plus later, an interview that you do not want to miss. Former president bill clinton talks education, technology and how to get the economy growing again with our own david west on. All that and more on go. David this is bloomberg go. Now lets get a check on some stocks that are moving in advance of the open. Alex zara is the owner to the Worlds Largest retailer. Zara coming out with earnings that beat expectations. The company benefiting from that faster Distribution System that allowed to it get more of its fast fashion into store more quickly than competitors like h m. I should point out they were down for 10 straight sessions going into this Earnings Report losing nearly 8 in that time. Sticking with retail, were looking at shoemaker jimmy choo. Theyre trading sticking into its forecast for the full year. Shares gaining by 14 . E stock was raced to buy liberum. Strong lly, the irish maker higher by 2 . There was a report that the company was nearing a deal be acquired for about 20 billion by a u. K. Based firm after spokesperson declined to comment but the stock has declined sharply over the past 12 months. Down some 41 and fended off a akeover offense. So well see if there is anything to this report and of course, well update you on any developments there. Jonathan thank you very much. Coming down, the latest poll showing the leaf campaign. We will discuss the odds of a brexit. And we will bring you my coanchor, davids sitdown with bill clinton. Much more on deck right here on bloomberg go. Jonathan the beautiful of london with the ftse rebounding. Up. Of 1 . 53 points in the green. The risk of selloff from yesterday running out of steam. The ftse up about. 9. The dbacks 1 higher. That risk reflecting in the effects market. Yesterday, stronger ftse, younger yen and the opposite today. With a 142 handle at one point on the back of some really solid job states around the u. K. Unemployment, 11year low. Thats the f. X. Market. Yields higher. Our basis points higher. That risk on rally today pushing the back end yields higher. In crude, fiveday losing streak. Both scombrent w. T. I. , 48 handle on w. T. I. 4920 on bren. Here are some headlines with sherry. Hillary clinton has opened up a doubledigit lead over donald trump in the race for the white house. A new Politics National poll shows clinton leading trump 49 to 37 among likely voters and 55 of those survey say they could never vote for trump. Trump does have an edge when it comes to fighting terrorism by a 5045 more gin. Voter says he will do a better job. Nato says its sending a clear message to russia by increasing the number of troops in eastern europe. A Multinational Force of 4,000 troops will be deployed in poland and three baltic nation which is border russia. Nato is trying to that they are vulnerable to attacks. Officials in indonesia dont expect a repeat of the forest fires that led to think haze in singapore and other parts of southeast asia. But that may be viewed in the forecast for better weather. Indonesian fire patrols are donned not to have done a lot in the fire. Global news 24 hours a day. David . David thank you. Yesterday, c. G. I. American included 6 . I had the opportunity to sit down with former president bill clinton. Bill then we had flat wages, declining middle class income and rising in poverty. And you can flip it with some of the same things we did. But then we had very high Interest Rates for stifling growth. Now we have Interest Rates below inflation and the long drag after the drag as trifling growth. O we we still need more Public Investment now. We need National Infrastructure program which includes clean energy. We need to double down on our investment in science and technology which has kept our country strong. I spent 3 billion of your money to sequence a human genome for the first time. You can do it for less than 1,000 now. And we have more than 200 billion in verifyial economic benefits. Thats pretty good return on our investments, i would say. We spent the first 500 million that Newt Gingrich and i agreed on to spend on nanotechnology and i was in a school in Eastern Kentucky in